# Leave the birthrate alone **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 15, 2026, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286 "2026-04-15T12:30:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/207 "2026-04-28T00:09:17Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > This YouTube video suggests that demographic decline is already affecting the economies of nations where the workforce has peaked, And in other news, they claim AI is going to take over many jobs. The days of needing a lot of kids to run the family farm are over in the maechanized world. ---
**Author:** ![We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/We_re_wolves_not_werewolves)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/208 "2026-04-28T00:28:58Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > The 1950s are _famous_ as a period of extreme social oppression for anyone not straight white men, after all. And 1930’s weren’t?? > [@Lumpy](#): > > 1950 was more oppressive than 1930? Like what for example? yeah, a lot of silliness being thrown around in here by the usual suspects trying to make the data fit their preconceptions. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/209 "2026-04-28T00:39:02Z")
> [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](#): > > And 1930’s weren’t?? I have no doubt the 1930s (not to mention the 1920, 1910s, etc) were worse- much worse. But the issue is - there are lots of people who remember the 50’s. Note that the US Army wasnt integrated until 1948 ( by order of Truman), and it took a while for that to work out. The 1950s that people remember were great here in the USA- if you were white, middle class (at least) and male. But things were starting to improve and many people at least realized there was a problem. I dont think that realization had sunk in around the 1930s. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/210 "2026-04-28T00:40:12Z")
Bottom section of Table 2. Rural is the reference case (=1). By 1930, holding other variables constant,“urban” less than 10,000 roughly 10% less than pure rural. 10,000 to 100,000 roughly 13%. Over 100,000 down roughly 14%. If I am reading it correctly anyway. Biggest drop from rural to towns under 10,000. Consistent with occupational impacts: > Exponentiating the coefficient for women married to men with professional and technical occupations in 1930, for example, indicates that these women had 18.3 percent fewer children than women married to farmers. The largest differentials were between women married to farmers and women married to men in service occupations or in one of the three “white collar” occupation groups: professionals and technical workers; managers, officials, and proprietors; and clerks and sales workers. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/211 "2026-04-28T00:44:18Z")
> [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](#): > > And 1930’s weren’t?? The pre-WWII era worldwide saw general progress in rights and freedoms (not just for women) that saw a major setback post-war. Progress isn’t a neat upwards curve, it’s jagged. ---
**Author:** ![We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/We_re_wolves_not_werewolves)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/212 "2026-04-28T00:46:56Z")
absolutely. The fact is that the birth rate is an extremely complicated phenomenon that is undoubtedly affected by many factors, and those trying to explain it here with pithy comments and simplistic causality statements based on their pet obsessions is hopelessly futile. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/213 "2026-04-28T00:48:14Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > The pre-WWII era worldwide saw general progress in rights and freedoms (not just for women) that saw a major setback post-war These cites say elsewise- got a cite that supports your hypothesis? > **[Race Relations in the 1930s and 1940s | Great Depression and World War II,...](https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/race-relations-in-1930s-and-1940s/)** > > The problems of the Great Depression affected virtually every group of Americans. No group was harder hit than African Americans, however. > **[African Americans - Great Depression, New Deal, Struggles | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/African-Americans/African-American-life-during-the-Great-Depression-and-the-New-Deal)** > > African Americans - Great Depression, New Deal, Struggles: The Great Depression of the 1930s worsened the already bleak economic situation of African Americans. They were the first to be laid off from their jobs, and they suffered from an... ---
**Author:** ![We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/We_re_wolves_not_werewolves)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/214 "2026-04-28T00:55:08Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > The pre-WWII era worldwide saw general progress in rights and freedoms (not just for women) that saw a major setback post-war. Progress isn’t a neat upwards curve, it’s jagged. sorry, this is absolutely false. The 1930’s were the midst of the great depression. There was immense competition for jobs and benefits. Minorities suffered greatly and exponentially worse than white males as they came out on the losing end in these competitions due to unfair practices. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/215 "2026-04-28T01:02:26Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The 1950s that people remember were great here in the USA- if you were white, middle class (at least) and male. Christian too. Of course a white Jewish man like my dad could pass as Christian, use a fake name on sales calls, once he became middle class find a developing suburban neighborhood that would sell property to him when others wouldn’t. Much easier than if he had been as hardworking and ambitious a Black man, let alone a _woman!_ But yeah discrimination by religion and ethnicity was still very real. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/216 "2026-04-28T01:37:24Z")
If you look at sexual equality, rather than race equality (and sexual equality is probably more important for fertility rates) we had Rosie the Riviter replaced by stepford wives, and an expectation that women should stay home and care for their families. I don’t really know what was happening in the 1920s, but I do think the 1950s featured a significant reaction to the overly independent women of WWII, and there was a lot is social pressure too keep women pregnant and dependant. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/217 "2026-04-28T02:00:56Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > If you look at sexual equality, rather than race equality (and sexual equality is probably more important for fertility rates) we had Rosie the Riviter replaced by stepford wives, and an expectation that women should stay home and care for their families. This. Nobody here so far seems to have checked the “baby boom” phenomenon against average female age at first marriage in the US, but [that age fell sharply in the 1940s after slightly rising in the 1930s](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/families-and-households/ms-2.pdf). In the mid-1950s the **median** female age at first marriage was about 20, meaning that nearly **half** of first-time brides were teenagers. That’s a cultural shift that correlates very strongly with earlier and higher marital fertility, and with societal expectations of women as SAHMs in contrast to their workplace roles in the hardscrabble years of the Depression and the all-hands-on-deck recruitment boom of the war years. I don’t care whether you (generic “you”) think of that as sexist oppression or decline in sexual equality or simply women’s spontaneous individual choices; but there is no question that a major, though temporary, cultural shift occurred post-WWII in the perception of women’s social roles and the status of marriage as something of a rite of passage into female adulthood. The post-WWII brides started having children younger (indeed, a lot of those teenaged brides were getting married so early precisely **because** there was a baby on the way), and consequently had more years of active childbearing potential. ---
**Author:** ![We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/We_re_wolves_not_werewolves)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/218 "2026-04-28T02:01:29Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > we had Rosie the Riviter that was WW2 (1941-1945). What about the low birth rate during the 1930’s? To me, the great depression seems the like it would be the most obvious and biggest impactful reason for a lowered birth rate during that time. The lack of resources, jobs, and the general stressful environment seems like it would negatively impact birth rates during that decade. Conversely, the 1950’s saw a relative abundance of money and a higher standard of living as the US emerged as the true economic superpower in the world, which would seem to support and encourage a higher birth rate. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/219 "2026-04-28T02:06:16Z")
> [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](#): > > To me, the great depression seems the like it would be the most obvious and biggest impactful reason for a lowered birth rate during that time. The lack of resources, jobs, and the general stressful environment seems like it would negatively impact birth rates during that decade. Yup, in many ways. Single people delayed marriage because they didn’t feel economically secure enough to risk parenthood; more wives and mothers found their workforce participation crucial to family support because their husbands couldn’t get employment, and consequently sought to avoid the job-ending consequences of further (or first) pregnancy; and more husbands were away from home for longer periods, following transient work. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/220 "2026-04-28T02:07:32Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > I knew the answer so I just asked AI for a quick quote I’d have a whole lot more confidence in that quote if it weren’t AI. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/221 "2026-04-28T02:19:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > By 1930 The original question asked for earlier dates than that. That it was still true in 1930 was obvious if you knew the subject, just as it is still true elsewhere in the world where mass urbanization started later. But true later wasn’t an answer to whether it was true earlier. > [@thorny\_locust](#): > > I’d have a whole lot more confidence in that quote if it weren’t AI. As I said, I already knew the answer. I just wanted a nice concise statement to quote. Which was accurate or else I wouldn’t have posted it. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/222 "2026-04-28T02:23:37Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > also less nearby extended family (including relatives asking when ya gonna have kids? Less nearby extended family also often means less help with the kids. > [@Lumpy](#): > > economies built on the presumption of indefinite growth may be in deep trouble: That was never a presumption that made any sense to me in the first place. Nothing just keeps growing forever. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/223 "2026-04-28T02:57:04Z")
I guess I’m not understanding what the question is. Does this quote from the article inform? > Compared to couples living in rural areas, couples in urban areas had 7–8 percent fewer children in 1850 and 10–13 percent fewer children in 1930. There was little substantive difference between couples living in large urban and small urban places in 1850 You get that AI telling you what “you already know” is a problem with AI? Sometimes it admits that it just made it up when pushed for the cite. That’s why I pushed a bit for supporting cites, which it did NOT exactly provide, but did name some authors which got me a cite with information that may be more convincing. ---
**Author:** ![Sylvanz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/fbc32d/32.png) [@Sylvanz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylvanz)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/224 "2026-04-28T03:05:27Z")
Oh, I agree 100%. The point I was trying to make is that these necessary services. Make the choice less dependent on finances and time. Thus giving women more room to choose what they want. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/225 "2026-04-28T03:16:21Z")
> [@We\_re\_wolves\_not\_werewolves](#): > > > [@puzzlegal](#): > > > > we had Rosie the Riviter > > that was WW2 (1941-1945). What about the low birth rate during the 1930’s? To me, the great depression seems the like it would be the most obvious and biggest impactful reason for a lowered birth rate during that time. The lack of resources, jobs, and the general stressful environment seems like it would negatively impact birth rates during that decade. Conversely, the 1950’s saw a relative abundance of money and a higher standard of living as the US emerged as the true economic superpower in the world, which would seem to support and encourage a higher birth rate. Whereas I think the decline in fertility in the 1920s was the norm, and mirrors declines in fertility all around the world as people urbanize. I wasn’t trying to explain that, I was trying to explain the weird jump to pre-industrial fertility rates that happened in the 1950s. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/226 "2026-04-28T04:09:48Z")
I’ve not followed to original cites, but trusting Claude for this - average age of marriage for women in America was 21 - 22 from 1800 to 1940. The '50s saw it drop to 20 -21. Yes some was teens having sex early and unprotected, getting pregnant, and then getting married, but that didn’t seem to be the driver. The time period was just an outlier. I imagine the sequence of events as beginning with a catch up effect of family onset with return of men from the war, then the kin modeling by younger siblings facilitated by the GI bill having helped build suburbia and its structure both physical and social that supported early family onset (which tends to lead to larger families). I think of my mom, who likely would have not had any kids in today’s world, but married a GI who was Jewish and helped liberate a concentration camp - he wanted to repopulate Jews. I’m the baby of five. First three in three years. It wasn’t a failure of planning. My MIL was married day after she turned 18. Anyway atypically early marriage seemed to be the driver and that is not a choice many could be incentivized to make today. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286.md?page=12)