# Leave the birthrate alone **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 15, 2026, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286 "2026-04-15T12:30:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2026, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/287 "2026-06-12T23:28:10Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > As long as the decline is not rapid, yes. A slow decline is okay Which is pretty much guaranteed by the fact old people are living longer. Of all the outcomes from a world population of 8B, the “population slowly declines because people have less babies” is absolutely the best one. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/288 "2026-06-13T00:25:11Z")
Unfortunately a world in which people spend decades too old to meaningfully work and requiring increased medical care is a demographic nightmare; unless AI forces society to restructure almost entirely away from employment economies anyway. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/289 "2026-06-13T00:51:07Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Of all the outcomes from a world population of 8B, the “population slowly declines because people have less babies” is absolutely the best one. Right. > [@Lumpy](#): > > Unfortunately a world in which people spend decades too old to meaningfully work and requiring increased medical care is a demographic nightmare; It hasnt been. Some issues in Japan. I worked until I was quite old- and I still do volunteer work-, and people are working later and later. 70 isnt too old to work today. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/290 "2026-06-13T01:17:32Z")
For office workers maybe not. Lotta folks even in advanced economies still do hard physical labor. Not so nice or easy for them. ---
**Author:** ![Xarrot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xarrot/32/21728_2.png) [@Xarrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xarrot)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/291 "2026-06-13T02:04:29Z")
yeah youre right. i dont wanna be forced to have children, i dont want any ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/292 "2026-06-13T02:55:25Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Unfortunately a world in which people spend decades too old to meaningfully work and requiring increased medical care is a demographic nightmare Not compared to “our population is 2X and we only have enough food for X”. Which is inevitable if the population keeps growing. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/293 "2026-06-13T03:02:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Some issues in Japan. Yes. And getting more so. > **[Going Gray](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/JAPAN-AGING/010091PB2LH/)** > > The world’s population is getting older. Japan is on the forefront of this demographic trend that will affect Germany, China and Italy in coming years. > [@DrDeth](#): > > people are working later and later Mixed bag though. Some, like me, knowledge workers, are choosing to work later. We are of higher SES, have no significant disabilities, and can afford to retire if we wanted to. And of course some are able to keep working but choose not to. Others are in physically demanding jobs that have paid less well. They can’t afford to retire but they also have accumulated physical ailments and really should. But they keep working because they have no choice. Until they really cannot. ---
**Author:** ![jjakucyk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3d9bf3/32.png) [@jjakucyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjakucyk)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/294 "2026-06-13T14:08:19Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > Not compared to “our population is 2X and we only have enough food for X”. Which is inevitable if the population keeps growing. I don’t see how we could get the population up to 2X if there’s only enough food for X in the first place. Yeah there could be a global catastrophe like an asteroid strike or AI robot locust plague, but those aren’t inevitabilities. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/295 "2026-06-13T18:05:09Z")
Or crop failures due to weather in much of the world in the same year? That’s not inevitable either; but the way we’re going, it’s all too possible. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/296 "2026-06-13T18:21:03Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > It hasnt been. Some issues in Japan. I worked until I was quite old- and I still do volunteer work-, and people are working later and later. 70 isnt too old to work today. People not having a real retirement and being forced to work while old and sick is a sign of social malaise, not something to be happy about. It does in fact demonstrate a problem with a rapidly declining population. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/297 "2026-06-13T18:22:22Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > People not having a real retirement and being forced to work while old and sick is a sign of social malaise, not something to be happy about. I have a real retirement, and still worked late in life. More and more people are making that choice. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/298 "2026-06-13T18:22:57Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I have a real retirement, and still worked late in life. More and more people are making that choice. You are assuming that it’s a _choice_ for them. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/299 "2026-06-13T18:25:06Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > You are assuming that it’s a _choice_ for them. [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457518305694](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0001457518305694) > - **53%** are not working and don’t want to work. > - **23%** are working and want to work. > - **19%** are not working but want to work. > - **4%** are working but don’t want to work. > _Among those who cited “personal fulfillment,” maybe they retired only to find that they were bored being at home. In some cases, people who are working after retirement will go back to their previous career while others will start a so-called “[encore career](https://mylifesite.net/blog/post/encore-careers-seniors-finding-job-satisfactionagain/)” — doing something new that appeals to their passions._ So, sure some people are working later as they have to, but more are working later as they simply want to. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/300 "2026-06-13T20:18:54Z")
Your link is to an article on seatbelt use among Arab males. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/301 "2026-06-13T21:35:30Z")
Oops > **[Working After Retirement …or Not: How to Facilitate Both Options](https://mylifesite.net/blog/post/working-after-retirement-or-not-how-to-facilitate-both-options)** > > Working after retirement can give older adults an income, social opportunities and a sense of worth. But working (or not) should be a choice. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/302 "2026-06-13T22:03:55Z")
Note that many who said they were working and want to work were doing so for financial reasons, which calls into question how people interpreted “want to work.” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2026, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/303 "2026-06-13T22:11:01Z")
Some were, but some simply wanted to. So, it depends. and note this- > Finally, there is that 4% of survey respondents from high-income countries like ours who are working but don’t want to be. This is truly a difficult situation to see people experiencing. So, yes 4% are working but dont want to, however, 23% are woking but DO want to. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2026, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/304 "2026-06-14T01:13:31Z")
ISTM it makes sense, if average lifespan and “healthspan” (i.e., how long people continue in reasonably good health before encountering debilitating geriatric medical problems) are both increasing, that the default “workspan” or extent of working life before standard retirement age will also increase. I recognize, however, that that’s a pretty big “if”. And if we do want or need more older workers, we shoild be looking into ways to facilitate “tapering off” more taxing job responsibilities as workers age. In particular, we could probably integrate low-hours part-time work by younger/fitter elderly into supporting geriatric care for older/sicker elderly. (This would also have something of a public-interest watchdog aspect: the “younger-olds” have a large stake in helping ensure that the policies and practices of caring for “older-olds” are humane and effective.) ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2026, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/305 "2026-06-14T04:34:27Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > ISTM it makes sense, if average lifespan and “healthspan” (i.e., how long people continue in reasonably good health before encountering debilitating geriatric medical problems) are both increasing, that the default “workspan” or extent of working life before standard retirement age will also increase. > > I recognize, however, that that’s a pretty big “if”. It’s not an “if”, [in the US at least](https://www.unc.edu/discover/u-s-life-expectancy-drop-caused-by-more-than-pandemic/) lifespan is decreasing, not increasing. > Life expectancy at birth in the United States is now 76.1 years, the lowest level since 1996, according to a recent[CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm#:~:text=Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%20in,its%20lowest%20level%20since%201996.). > > Provisional data showed there was a 0.9 year drop in 2021. Paired with a 1.8 year drop in 2020, the U.S. experienced the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy since 1921-1923. Under the circumstances I expect it to continue to drop. More disease, more poverty, more pollution and food contamination, worse medical care, increasing violence and so on are going to be the future for a long time. The damage done would take many years to fix (to the extent it can) even if we started _now,_ which we won’t. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2026, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286/306 "2026-06-14T04:41:14Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > It’s not an “if”, [in the US at least](https://www.unc.edu/discover/u-s-life-expectancy-drop-caused-by-more-than-pandemic/) lifespan is decreasing, not increasing. > > > Life expectancy at birth in the United States is now 76.1 years, the lowest level since 1996, according to a recent[CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220831.htm#:~:text=Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%20in,its%20lowest%20level%20since%201996.). > > > > Provisional data showed there was a 0.9 year drop in 2021. Paired with a 1.8 year drop in 2020, the U.S. experienced the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy since 1921-1923. > > Under the circumstances I expect it to continue to drop. Well, [you were wrong as far as the years immediately following 2021 are concerned](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2845189), at least. > [@](#): > > **US Life Expectancy Rebounds to Prepandemic High** > > Life expectancy in the US rose back to 79 years in 2024, up from 78 years in 2023. > > The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently released [final 2024 mortality data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db548.htm) from the National Center for Health Statistics. From 2023 to 2024, the death rate for the entire US population decreased by nearly 4%, from 751 to 722 deaths per 100 000 people. This marks a return to the [prepandemic life expectancy](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm), after it had dipped to [76 years in 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db456.htm). I don’t disagree that there are many current factors that we can expect to increase downward pressure on life expectancy, though. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-birthrate-alone/1029286.md?page=16)