# Leave the fork in her: Clinton's still done **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 5, 2008, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170 "2008-03-05T12:43:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/181 "2008-03-06T16:57:03Z")
Of the remaining primaries, how many allow Independents and Republicans to vote in them? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/182 "2008-03-06T17:25:10Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Of the remaining primaries, how many allow Independents and Republicans to vote in them? [/QUOTE] Looks like Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Montana and Puerto Rico are open. Wyoming, Pennsylvania, Guam, Oregon, Kentucky and South Dakota are closed. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/183 "2008-03-06T17:25:26Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Of the remaining primaries, how many allow Independents and Republicans to vote in them? [/QUOTE] You can see [here.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html) Those with “c” after them are closed and include, of note, Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![BJMoose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/5fc32e/32.png) [@BJMoose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BJMoose)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/184 "2008-03-06T17:33:45Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] So if the numbers at [RealClear Politics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html) are accurate, Hillary has gained _maybe_ 11 delegates on Obama as a result of Tuesday night. It seems to me that Mississippi (33 total delegates) and Wyoming (12 delegates) could easily make up for that loss. [/QUOTE] Reminds me of something else I meant to mention: this morning NPR gave Clinton a net gain of 14 delegates this week. It’s like watching a race between a snail and a banana slug. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/185 "2008-03-06T17:41:47Z")
[QUOTE=BJMoose] Reminds me of something else I meant to mention: this morning NPR gave Clinton a net gain of 14 delegates this week. It’s like watching a race between a snail and a banana slug. [/QUOTE] I think as we all know, if you portion delegates out instead of use a winner takes all, it’s always going to be like that with two strong candidates. It’s very hard for either one to get a large majority-- kinda like watching the popular vote in the general election. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/186 "2008-03-06T17:50:24Z")
For my Obama Brethren: I give you a nice [Analysis](http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010) stating Hillary’s options are all but nonexistent. Oh and the link doesn’t come from his camp… 😉 I made that mistake yesterday. BTW - I’m not really here. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/187 "2008-03-06T17:55:22Z")
We won’t tell your wife. We’ll say you’re out golfing! Maybe that’s one time a wife will be relieved to hear that. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/188 "2008-03-06T17:59:49Z")
$10 bucks says she’s actually checking the boards from work. HA! Hi Honey!! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/189 "2008-03-06T18:12:31Z")
You told her your _real_ username? Whatsamatta you? ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/190 "2008-03-06T18:14:41Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] You told her your _real_ username? Whatsamatta you? [/QUOTE] Seriously. I told my wife that my username is **elucidator**. The results have been…unpredictable. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/191 "2008-03-06T18:26:27Z")
There can be only one. I think we can all agree that’s for the best. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/192 "2008-03-06T18:33:18Z")
This post of **DrDeth** ’s was a good idea, and mostly good in the execution, but a couple of minor bits of cleanup might help. I’ll be working from the same RCP numbers that **DrDeth** is using as his base, just to minimize the confusion. [QUOTE=DrDeth] Certainly she can. She is behind now by 109 delegates.1573 to 1464. 2025 needed to win. Obama needs 452, HRC needs 561. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gate\_count.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gate_count.html) There are 346 unpledged Superdelegates. There are like 611 delegates left to elect. [/quote] So far, so good. But it should be noted that there are 28 delegates for which the person-level voting has taken place, but the national convention delegates haven’t been allocated yet. From March 4, RCP is showing 1 from RI, 2 from OH, and 10 from TX undetermined, for a total of 13. From earlier, there are outstanding: 1 from HI, 1 from DC, 10 from CO, and 3 from Democrats Abroad, for a total of 15. I’m going to assume Clinton and Obama split those 28 evenly, 14-14. But we’ll add those in at the end, so they don’t muck up the arithmetic with respect to PA/NC. > [@](#): > > Penn(158) is the biggest state left, and Hillary has a large lead there: 46% to 37%. OTOH, Obama should win [N].Carolina (115) by about the same amount. That puts HRC behind Obama by under 100, say 1642 Obama to 1560HRC. OK, this is the part I don’t understand. Whether one leaves that 46-37 as is, and allocates the 17% undecided later, or whether one transmutes 46-37 up to something like 55-45, Hillary winning PA by 9-10% and Obama winning NC by the same margin only gives Hillary a net of +5. So she’s still behind by 104, not 82. If Hillary wins PA 55%-45% and gets the same delegate % split, she wins PA 87-71. If Obama wins NC the same way, he wins NC 63-52. So Obama picked up 134, Hillary picked up 139, and Obama’s ahead 1707-1603. > [@](#): > > Let us say the next 338 are split more or less evenly, Obama then has 1811, HRC will then have 1729. Well, 1876-1772 actually. Now we add in the 28 from earlier, 14-14: 1890-1786. There are 346 superdelegates who are undeclared. They need 2025, total. Obama would need 135 of them (39%); Hillary would need 239 of them (69%). If either were able to win some or all of Edwards’ 26 delegates, that would reduce the number somewhat, but not by much obviously. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/193 "2008-03-06T18:38:37Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] There are 346 superdelegates who are undeclared. They need 2025, total. Obama would need 135 of them (39%); Hillary would need 239 of them (69%). If either were able to win some or all of Edwards’ 26 delegates, that would reduce the number somewhat, but not by much obviously. [/QUOTE] Her 11 strait losses really cost her a lot. And saying she didn’t expect to win those states anyway…was just plain campaign foolishness, something hers has been wrought with for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/194 "2008-03-06T18:54:09Z")
Clinton cannot win in any legit fashion, it is quite clear. Her try-to-win-at-all-costs mentality (shared apparently by her supporters) is going to cause the Democratic party a great deal of harm in the short run. Hopefully this can be repaired by November. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/195 "2008-03-06T18:55:39Z")
Now: Obama, 1573-1464. (All counts are of delegates. Any percentages in parentheses.) Plus a 14-14 split of the 28 outstanding delegates from earlier states: 1587-1478. Obama wins WY 7-5; Obama wins MS 19-14. 1613-1497. Hillary wins PA 90-68. (57-43%.) 1681-1587. They split Guam. 1683-1589. Obama wins NC, 62-53; Hillary wins IN, 39-33. 1778-1681. Hillary wins WV 17-11; Obama wins OR 28-24; Hillary wins KY, 31-20. They split MT 8-8; Hillary wins SD, 8-7. 1852-1769. Hillary wins PR 39-16 (70-30%). 1868-1808. She’d _still_ be behind by 60 after all that, needing 217 superdelegates out of 346, while Obama would only need 157. As **John Mace** said, it’s _hard_ to build a lead - or cut into one - when delegates are being allocated proportionally. A 100-delegate lead, this late in the process, is really on the edge of being impossible to overtake. The only things keeping this alive at all are superdelegates and the possibility of a MI/FL deal. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/196 "2008-03-06T19:15:56Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Her 11 strait losses really cost her a lot. And saying she didn’t expect to win those states anyway…was just plain campaign foolishness, something hers has been wrought with for a while. [/QUOTE] Her real problem wasn’t losing them, so much as losing them BIG. And that’s what enabled Obama to pile up delegates, because that’s the only way you can do it under this system: winning big. That’s what she lost by not really contesting them. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/197 "2008-03-06T20:05:53Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] That’s what she lost by not really contesting them. [/QUOTE] Which says a lot about her talents as an executive. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/198 "2008-03-06T20:12:43Z")
[Barack Obama will pick up an important industrial state endorsement](http://cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002682902) from veteran Rep. Nick J. Rahall II before the May 13 West Virginia primary. > [@](#): > > Rahall told CQ Politics Thursday that he privately made his commitment to Obama about 10 days ago and will officially endorse the delegate leader in the Democratic presidential primary sometime before voters in his state go to the polls. > > “The new voters he has brought to the process this year and the new direction, in my opinion, add up to what our country needs,” Rahall said. [Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a superdelegate from Nevada announced she is supporting Senator Barack Obama for President today](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGBLxN), citing his ability to bring new voters into the Democratic Party: > [@](#): > > This year, Democrats are graced with the opportunity to choose among excellent candidates for our nation’s highest office. After careful thought, it is my honor today to endorse Sen. Barack Obama who, day by day and state by state, is challenging politics as usual and engaging so many new, diverse, Democratic voters. These new voters will propel Sen. Obama to victory in November and help elect great Democrats at the state and local level. Still none for Hillary as far as I can find. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/199 "2008-03-06T20:12:58Z")
This isn’t so much about Hillary against the voters or the establishment as much as it is Hillary against Hillary - she _appears_ to be willing to do anything, including lighting up in a back room to get to sit in that chair in the Oval Office. Yes, people are voting for her, but not as many people overall are voting for her as they are for Obama. The superdelegates are looking long and hard at that. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170/200 "2008-03-06T20:35:21Z")
[For Penn Dems, it’s now all for Obama](http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2008/03/06/News/For-Penn.Dems.Its.Now.All.For.Obama-3255115.shtml) > [@](#): > > Last night, the Penn Democrats endorsed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for president, despite debate about whether to endorse a candidate at all. > > The endorsement required a two-thirds majority to pass. > > Following the vote, College sophomore Mukul Sharma, Penn Dems vice president, said the group will do “whatever it can” for Obama and wants to host a visit for either the senator or his surrogates before the April 22 Pennsylvania primary. > > The Penn Dems will help organize events, walk door-to-door in the Philadelphia area and call registered voters on behalf of Obama’s campaign. > > –more– [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/leave-the-fork-in-her-clintons-still-done/440170.md?page=11)