# LeBron opts out...what's his future? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 24, 2014, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535 "2014-06-24T14:23:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/21 "2014-06-24T19:49:10Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t know about all the time - it’s a handful of teams every year. [The system works like this](http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q21): if a team exceeds the salary cap, it has to make additional payments to the NBA based on how far over the cap it is. If you go over the cap repeatedly, you have to make bigger payments. And yes, if you’re over the cap, your ability to free agents certain kinds of contracts is restricted. I’m not sure this is correct. It’s fine to be over the cap, but above that is a luxury tax line where you get dinged for each dollar you spend over that amount. The cap was $59m this past season and the tax was about $72m. There isn’t any penalty for being between those two numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/22 "2014-06-24T19:58:21Z")
> [@markdash](#): > > I’m not sure this is correct. It’s fine to be over the cap, but above that is a luxury tax line where you get dinged for each dollar you spend over that amount. The cap was $59m this past season and the tax was about $72m. There isn’t any penalty for being between those two numbers. I was confused about that. If they’re between those two figures, does that count toward the repeater penalties or anything like that? …Man, all these gymnastics just to save super-rich people some money. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/23 "2014-06-24T20:28:35Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I was confused about that. If they’re between those two figures, does that count toward the repeater penalties or anything like that? …Man, all these gymnastics just to save super-rich people some money. 😛 The repeater penalty only comes in when a team exceeds the tax in 3 of the past 4 years. (I know an unhealthy amount about the NBA CBA.) ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/24 "2014-06-24T20:46:43Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Have you seen the Pacers since December? They have some problems they need to fix. I think they’ll rid themselves of some of the cancer that has been plaguing their team. Lance Stephenson is gone. They’ll do something with Hibbert, and they’ll sign a couple of guys who are decent role players. I know Paul George will get better, and towards the end, only David West was producing consistently or had his head on right. Keep those two, build around them, and I don’t think its impossible to say that they’ll be slightly better My point is that the East stinks though… It would be fun to watch Lebron in the West, however. Imagine the playoffs! It would be epic!! But the East would be totally unwatchable. I hope Derrick Rose comes back healthy because damn it, I need for there to be more than 2 decent teams in the East. Regular season games are brutal to watch ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/25 "2014-06-24T21:17:13Z")
> [@YogSosoth](#): > > I think they’ll rid themselves of some of the cancer that has been plaguing their team. Lance Stephenson is gone. That’d be a big loss. He’s a dick and he does some really dumb stuff, but he also has important skills that they will miss. They want to keep him, at least if the price is right. > [@](#): > > They’ll do something with Hibbert Yes, and I’ll get rich by becoming wealthy. What are they going to do and how are they going to do it? Trade him? Keep him and restore his confidence and consistency? This is not a small problem. > [@](#): > > and they’ll sign a couple of guys who are decent role players. They’ve utterly failed to do this the last couple of years. They might get it right this time, but I’m skeptical. They also don’t have a lot of cap room right now, and the Pacers are not a team that’s going to spend a lot of money. > [@](#): > > I know Paul George will get better, and towards the end, only David West was producing consistently or had his head on right. Those points are both correct, but I think they also illustrate the problem. George is on the way to regular All-Star territory, yes. West was good, but he’s about to turn 34. We don’t know what’s going on with Hibbert. They probably need someone better than George Hill. Stephenson is a free agent, and their bench has been crud. Anyway, for all of that, I don’t disagree that the East is still going to be weak. The Heat will still be really good assuming LeBron stays, the Bulls could be dangerous depending on Rose’s health and their free-agency plans. I don’t think anyone expects the Raptors or Wizards to turn into world-beaters just yet. So the Pacers could be near the top, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that they will improve. They have to ask themselves some hard questions this offseason. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/26 "2014-06-24T23:43:01Z")
How do you think the Pacers and Heat will do, relative to each other, if the rosters remain generally the same taking into account the guys we know are leaving or retiring? I think the Pacers get a little better and the Heat a little worse, closing the gap between them I don’t think they’ll trade Hibbert, but very early on he talked about locker room chemistry before their downward spiral became too obvious. If Lance is gone, then I think he’ll get better. He seems to be the type that needs a good leader around to whip guys into shape and can’t handle distractions. I don’t see West dropping off too much, he probably has a good year or two left in him, and any drop off by him would probably be made up by Paul George getting better. If George can put together another couple months or half season of his MVP caliber play like he did this past year, then I’m confident that he’ll learn from the mistakes this time and be much improved. To me, the only real storylines in the East are the tweaks by the Heat (basically where Lebron goes) and Pacers, and whether or not Rose is healthy. Unless one of them drastically overachieve, none of the other 12 teams in the conference are really a threat to do anything. Can I say that I half hope Lebron goes West, even though I don’t want him here? But imagine the possibilities! So much excitement, the conference would be crazy! We could have a 50 win team that doesn’t make the playoffs! Seeds 1-8 could be within a handful of games of each other like 2008! 3 way ties! A higher seed that doesn’t get home court! It would be madness! But it would ruin the East, just be terrible for the league overall I think ---
**Author:** ![cerebus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/258eb7/32.png) [@cerebus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cerebus)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/27 "2014-06-25T00:14:21Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [I think Tim Duncan would disagree.](http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/tim-duncan-cut-paycheck-half-san-antonio-spurs-161015938--nba.html) I love Duncan but he took this paycut at 35 not in his prime. If Lebron is in a Spurs-like situation at 35 I think he’ll do the same. @markdash: Let me see if I understood this correctly. Teams can go over the cap and not get taxed as long as they stay under the luxury tax line. The NBA penalizes teams that exceed the cap(even if they’re under the luxury) with a repeater tax if they go over in 3 out of 4 years. Going over the cap itself carries no immediate penalties? ---
**Author:** ![Cubsfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Cubsfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cubsfan)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/28 "2014-06-25T02:03:08Z")
Lebron to the Bucks. Wade to the Jazz. Bosh to the Mavs. You read it here first. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/29 "2014-06-25T02:45:21Z")
> [@cerebus](#): > > @markdash: Let me see if I understood this correctly. Teams can go over the cap and not get taxed as long as they stay under the luxury tax line. The NBA penalizes teams that exceed the cap(even if they’re under the luxury) with a repeater tax if they go over in 3 out of 4 years. Going over the cap itself carries no immediate penalties? Not quite. The first part is right - you can exceed the soft cap without being taxed. The tax itself goes up if you’re paying the tax for a 4th time out of 5 years, i.e. your tax in the 4th year _that you’re paying the tax_ is much higher than it otherwise would have been because you’re a repeater. That’s where the 3 out of the last 4 years language comes from – if you’re already a tax-paying team this year, and you also paid the tax three out of the 4 previous years, then you get hit with extra tax. It’s not a penalty apart from the tax, it’s effectively a higher tax rate. But that’s for being above the tax threshold, not for being over the cap. There is a penalty for going over the cap itself, but it’s the obvious penalty – you can’t spend any more money unless an exception applies to that spending. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/30 "2014-06-25T02:53:13Z")
At some point there _is_ actually a “hard cap,” but it’s my (very rudimentary) understanding that it’s not a solid number across the board, but could be a unique figure for every team, due to “Bird rights,” the “Derrick Rose rule,” the mid-level exception, other exceptions and whatnot. If _all_ of those exceptions are used, that total number becomes that specific teams’ “hard cap” which they cannot go over no matter what. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/31 "2014-06-25T03:24:24Z")
> [@cerebus](#): > > I love Duncan but he took this paycut at 35 not in his prime. If Lebron is in a Spurs-like situation at 35 I think he’ll do the same. True, but note that LeBron did not take the max when he signed with the Heat so they could afford the Big 3. > **[LeBron James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LeBron_James#Miami_Heat_.282010.E2.80.93present.29)** > > LeBron Raymone James Sr. (/ləˈbrɒn/; lə-BRON; born December 30, 1984) is an American professional basketball player for the Los Angeles Lakers of the National Basketball Association (NBA). Nicknamed "King James", he is widely regarded as one of the greatest basketball players of all time, and is frequently at the center of debates regarding the sport's all-time best, often being compared to Michael Jordan.\[a\] James has won four NBA championships from 10 NBA Finals appearances, having made ei... So the concept of taking less than the max to ensure a championship is one he has already embraced. ---
**Author:** ![chicagowhitesox1173](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/46a35a/32.png) [@chicagowhitesox1173](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chicagowhitesox1173)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/32 "2014-06-25T06:09:02Z")
I think he;s going back to the Cav’s in which I might gain a little respect for him if he does. Especially if he wins that city a ring for the first time since 1948. ---
**Author:** ![chicagowhitesox1173](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/46a35a/32.png) [@chicagowhitesox1173](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chicagowhitesox1173)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/33 "2014-06-25T06:11:38Z")
One thing I have mixed feelings for is if he joins the Bulls along with Carmelo. As big of a Bulls fan as I am, I would probably root against him due to joining up with Rose, Noah, Anthony and himself. I still think it’s a cowardly way to win a ring. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/34 "2014-06-25T12:53:05Z")
Tell us something: what could Lebron do that you would consider NOT cowardly (and “staying in Cleveland” is not an option)? Join the Bucks? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/35 "2014-06-25T14:34:05Z")
At least **chicagowhitesox1173** admits he might look the other way if it benefits him. Anyway the odds of both guys going to the Bulls is almost zero. The Bulls might be able to sign one of them, but both guys would have to take stupendous discounts (and the Bulls might need to get rid of a bunch of players) to make that work. ---
**Author:** ![pancakes3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ba9def/32.png) [@pancakes3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pancakes3)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/36 "2014-06-25T15:05:58Z")
I think Lebron stays and maybe he opted out as a way to give the Heat flexibility - not himself. The two scenarios I would pursue would be: if Bosh opts out: Sign Carmelo if Bosh opts in: Trade for Love and have Lebron structure his deal around whatever the terms may be. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/37 "2014-06-25T15:08:25Z")
If the Heat can trade for Love, Pat Riley is even better than I thought. They have very few tradeable assets. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/38 "2014-06-25T15:22:43Z")
I think he meant trade Bosh for Love. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/39 "2014-06-25T15:44:34Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > I think he meant trade Bosh for Love. This seems very unlikely to me unless LeBron and the Heat management are willing to straight-up lie to Bosh about their plans. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535/40 "2014-06-25T15:55:02Z")
And why would Minnesota make that deal? I don’t see Bosh as being significantly better than Love right now and Love has a lot more upside since he’s younger and, I presume, makes a lot less money. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lebron-opts-out-whats-his-future/691535.md?page=3)