# Less than 30% of voters say they will support their Representatives in the November elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 8, 2010, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428 "2010-06-08T15:00:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/1 "2010-06-08T15:00:56Z")
There is significant voter [discontent](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/08/AR2010060800016.html?hpid=topnews&loc=interstitialskip). And it’s not just against Democrats. > [@washingtonpost.com](#): > > Six in 10 poll respondents say they have a negative view of the policies put forward by the Republican minority in Congress > [@](#): > > 69 percent of all Americans say they are either dissatisfied or angry with the government, and 60 percent say they are inclined to look for other candidates in November, the most ever in a Post-ABC poll. So if there is so much dissatisfaction…is the time ripe for a new party to emerge? Maybe…but it doesn’t appear to be the tea party movement. > [@](#): > > The poll also finds growing disapproval of the “tea party” movement, with half the population now expressing an unfavorable impression of the loosely aligned protest campaign that has shaken up politics this year. I am of the opinion that the dissatisfaction is less tied to party affiliation but more tied to “establishment politicians” from either party. Sounds like the non-partisan [GOOOH](http://goooh.com/home.aspx) organization may have quite a bit of support. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/2 "2010-06-08T15:28:45Z")
Dissatisfaction might just keep people at home which would benefit the Dems more. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/3 "2010-06-08T15:47:15Z")
I will eat my hat if voter behavior doesn’t return 85%+ of incumbents to their seats (discounting retirements). The interesting thing to me in that poll is the apparent dissatisfaction with the tea party folks. I think that thing is going to burn itself out and a LOT of potential politicos are going to find they’ve backed the wrong horse and aborted some careers before they really got started. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/4 "2010-06-08T15:48:00Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Dissatisfaction might just keep people at home which would benefit the Dems more. Hm? I’m pretty sure that the party which is typified by irregular and low turnout is the Democrats. People staying home generally means Democrats staying home, which means a proportionately higher turnout of Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/5 "2010-06-08T15:50:57Z")
Out of 435 Representatives up for election this year at least 400 of them will be returned, no matter what these polls say. A similar proportion of Senators will be returned as well. Bank on it. It’s long been demonstrated that around 90% of incumbents get re=elected. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/6 "2010-06-08T16:05:17Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > Out of 435 Representatives up for election this year at least 400 of them will be returned, no matter what these polls say. A similar proportion of Senators will be returned as well. Bank on it. It’s long been demonstrated that around 90% of incumbents get re=elected. Given that 37 House incumbants have announced plans not to run again, I bet you’re wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/7 "2010-06-08T16:43:59Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Hm? I’m pretty sure that the party which is typified by irregular and low turnout is the Democrats. People staying home generally means Democrats staying home, which means a proportionately higher turnout of Republicans. I think the point is that such things tend to benefit incumbents - which as far as the House goes, benefits the Democrats. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/8 "2010-06-08T16:53:17Z")
[Here’s](http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/voter_rage_87_reelection_rate.html) a link to an attempt to correlate voter dissatisfaction with incumbents to actual voting out of incumbants. They are weakly correlated, but even with our current high rate of voter dissatisfaction, the predicted turnover rate is…13%. Out of curiousity, what percentage of Congresscritters actually face challengers in a given cycle? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/9 "2010-06-08T16:54:25Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Dissatisfaction might just keep people at home which would benefit the Dems more. Depends on how acceptable the challenger seems to be. Dissatisfaction with the incumbent, _combined with an attractive alternative_, tends to bring voters out. If the common view is “Yeah, well, the other guy’s no better”, that would tend to depress turnout, wouldn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/10 "2010-06-08T17:12:17Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > I think the point is that such things tend to benefit incumbents - which as far as the House goes, benefits the Democrats. > > -Joe In general, perhaps, but the current incumbents came in on Obama’s coattails, elected by an irregular turnout of Democrats. Usually the incumbents have a strong position because turnout is pretty similar from year to year. If it goes back to the old turnout, then you end up with a voting pattern that doesn’t line up well with the 2008 results. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/11 "2010-06-08T18:01:29Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > In general, perhaps, but the current incumbents came in on Obama’s coattails, elected by an irregular turnout of Democrats. Usually the incumbents have a strong position because turnout is pretty similar from year to year. If it goes back to the old turnout, then you end up with a voting pattern that doesn’t line up well with the 2008 results. I disagree. An incumbent gets their strength from voters’ habit and inertia. Obama may have broken that inertia to get them in, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get tossed just because Obama isn’t on the ticket this year. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/12 "2010-06-08T18:22:05Z")
> [@Wilbo523](#): > > So if there is so much dissatisfaction…is the time ripe for a new party to emerge? Maybe…but it doesn’t appear to be the tea party movement. As much as I’d like to see a third party gain some ground, I just don’t see it. I think, in the end, people will either lack the motivation to vote and stay home, or they’ll be afraid of “throwing their vote away” and continue to pick the lesser of two evils. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2010, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/13 "2010-06-08T21:05:48Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Given that 37 House incumbants have announced plans not to run again, I bet you’re wrong. Good point, but I bet most of those seats will stay with the party of the retiring incumbent. People have hated Congress at a very high rate for years, but unfortunately, they think the appropriate punishment is re-electing them so they can hate them some more. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2010, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/14 "2010-06-09T03:36:45Z")
Looks like Blanche Lincoln won, so effective incumbent discontent appears to be concentrated on the Republican side tonight. > [@](#): > > [Six-term Rep. Bob Inglis, R-S.C., was forced into a runoff election](http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2010/06/primaries-early-returns-south-carolina-arkansas-california-nevada/1), the latest lawmaker to be shaken by the nation’s anti-Washington mood. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2010, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/15 "2010-06-09T06:23:03Z")
That poll looks pretty worthless to me.[ul] [li]They polled random people. No effort to select people who are actually registered to vote, or with a history of actually voting. And since something like 40% of the people don’t vote, their opinions don’t matter (but they are counted in this poll).[/li][li]They polled people with phones (who would answer an unknown caller). That will likely bias the poll, in various ways.[/li][li]Unlike actual voting, the question is open-ended. There is a major difference in answers between _“Will you support John Smith?”_ and "_Who will you support, John Smith or Bill Jones?"_ People tend to be much more negative when comparing a person to an idealized opponent vs. comparing them to another real person.[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2010, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/16 "2010-06-09T11:02:42Z")
> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#): > > They polled people with phones (who would answer an unknown caller). That will likely bias the poll, in various ways. Ah yes. The methodology the _Literary Digest_ used to successfully predict the election of President Landon! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2010, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/17 "2010-06-10T05:49:21Z")
Oh yeah - voters are primed to throw incumbents out! Why in Tuesdays primaries of the 84 incumbents running in primaries only 82 won! Um…yeah… That didn’t work out so well, huh? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2010, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/18 "2010-06-10T16:27:39Z")
Primaries are different. Apart from anything else, the incumbent typically gets the nmational party’s support (and money). ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2010, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/19 "2010-06-10T17:06:11Z")
I heard that 84 out of 88 incumbents won Tuesday. That is hardly a rejection of the ins. People say they will kick out the pols, but they don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2010, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428/20 "2010-06-10T19:40:59Z")
I find it rather impressive that you managed to miss the last two posts in a one-page thread. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/less-than-30-of-voters-say-they-will-support-their-representatives-in-the-november-elections/542428.md?page=2)