Let's examine why the GOP chose Romney in the first place

[Marley23]

I’m pretty sure Adelson gave more money to Gingrich than he gave to Romney.

[Wesley_Clark]

He ran as the most electable, the one who could beat Obama

He has name recognition from his run in 2008 when he was neck and neck with McCain (he didn’t win many delegates, but he would win 40%+ of the vote in many states).

The other candidates imploded because they were too radical and misinformed. The GOP tried numerous people, even pleaded with people like Christie to run.

[Voyager]

@Kimmy_Gibbler

And Chris Christie was never going to run this season because those with legitimate ambitions don’t jeopardize their rising stars by running against presidential incumbents, because a loss necessarily diminishes one’s stature and incumbency (especially when there are also short term limits) makes the risk-calculus particularly unpalatable.

If Christie had run, my bet was that he’d have shot his mouth off and gotten creamed.

Perhaps people forget that Romney spent the entire primary season behind the current Republican favorite in the polls. Then that person flamed out, and the next one came. Last moron standing, mostly.

At the time lots of people commented on how Romney couldn’t seal the deal. Same thing in November.

[Rich_Mann]

Thanks all for your well reasoned replies. I see a whole lot of agreement on most points.

So, in simple terms, all the other possible candidates either were seen as having no chance, or were saving what they saw as their one chance for a future fight they might have a better chance of winning. Next time I’ll pay more attention to the workings of the GOP’s selection process, so I won’t have to wonder.

@Little_Nemo

On the Reagan issue, Romney might have had the look but he didn’t have the words. He’s no Great Communicator. Romney was never able to sell himself the way Reagan could.

Agreed. However, although my suggestion in the OP was a bit tongue-in-cheek, I honestly wonder if Romney wasn’t trying to ‘channel the spirit’ of Reagan through imitation. Every time I saw him speak I was thinking, “Is this the real him, or does he think he’s Reagan”? Or maybe that’s just me over-thinking it. (Or maybe it’s because Reagan is the first person I ever voted against, and the horror that followed still haunts me.)

[Smapti]

@Voyager

Perhaps people forget that Romney spent the entire primary season behind the current Republican favorite in the polls. Then that person flamed out, and the next one came. Last moron standing, mostly.

This.

Cain, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, etc. were all leading in the polls at one time. One by one the not-Romneys stepped up to the plate, and one by one they tripped over their shoelaces, hit themselves in the face, and passed out in the dirt before the pitcher even made his first toss.

[jayjay]

@Bridget_Burke

As much as we would love to get a crap governor out of Austin, remember what happened last time!

Yeah, I had a vision of Molly Ivins’s ghost covering her eyes all the way through the early primaries.

[Little_Nemo]

@Rich_Mann

However, although my suggestion in the OP was a bit tongue-in-cheek, I honestly wonder if Romney wasn’t trying to ‘channel the spirit’ of Reagan through imitation. Every time I saw him speak I was thinking, “Is this the real him, or does he think he’s Reagan”? Or maybe that’s just me over-thinking it. (Or maybe it’s because Reagan is the first person I ever voted against, and the horror that followed still haunts me.)

I think it’s a given. And not just for Romney. Pretty much every Republican and a good number of Democrats invoke Reagan in their own campaigns.

[Dangerosa]

@Voyager

If Christie had run, my bet was that he’d have shot his mouth off and gotten creamed.

Perhaps people forget that Romney spent the entire primary season behind the current Republican favorite in the polls. Then that person flamed out, and the next one came. Last moron standing, mostly.

At the time lots of people commented on how Romney couldn’t seal the deal. Same thing in November.

I get the feeling that Chris Christie might be the Howard Dean of the GOP. Shooting your mouth off is a well respected tradition on the East Coast, but that communication style might not play as well in the Midwest and the South.

Pawlenty was short on cash coming out of the straw polls. He’d have had to have gone into debt to continue his campaign. His money machine never really got going and he was counting on a good showing in the straw poll to put that into gear. Might have worked had Michelle Bachmann not thrown her hat into the ring and split the “we know this guy, he’s our neighbor” vote.

[Dangerosa]

@Rich_Mann

Thanks all for your well reasoned replies. I see a whole lot of agreement on most points.

So, in simple terms, all the other possible candidates either were seen as having no chance, or were saving what they saw as their one chance for a future fight they might have a better chance of winning. Next time I’ll pay more attention to the workings of the GOP’s selection process, so I won’t have to wonder.

Agreed. However, although my suggestion in the OP was a bit tongue-in-cheek, I honestly wonder if Romney wasn’t trying to ‘channel the spirit’ of Reagan through imitation. Every time I saw him speak I was thinking, “Is this the real him, or does he think he’s Reagan”? Or maybe that’s just me over-thinking it. (Or maybe it’s because Reagan is the first person I ever voted against, and the horror that followed still haunts me.)

Pay attention on both sides, it isn’t just the GOP that ends up with the “last guy standing” even when he isn’t great. Both Kerry and Dukakis were not great candidates, but got the nomination in a similar fashion to Romney. Although I don’t remember their competition being quite so amusing to watch as Rick Perry or Herman Cain.

[YogSothoth]

@Dangerosa

Pay attention on both sides, it isn’t just the GOP that ends up with the “last guy standing” even when he isn’t great. Both Kerry and Dukakis were not great candidates, but got the nomination in a similar fashion to Romney. Although I don’t remember their competition being quite so amusing to watch as Rick Perry or Herman Cain.

It would be hard to top this batch of GOP nominees, though Mike Gravel could probably beat each one in a cage match

[RTFirefly]

@Marley23

Analysts has to take all results into account and interpret them consistently to be useful. I was saying the Turns theory is based on selective definitions: it involves defining things in an inconsistent way, including facts that support the theory and ignoring ones that don’t. How did it get to be Bob Dole’s turn in 1996? He didn’t campaign for the Republican nomination in 1992. He was the Senate majority leader.

Most of the time, your analyses are pretty much on target. This is an exception, though.

I don’t think it involves selective definition in the least to remember that Bush was running as an incumbent in 1992, just as Bush was in 2004 or Reagan in 1984, and that these years are off the table with respect to its being someone’s turn.

How was it Bush’s turn in 2000? He wasn’t a candidate in '96. It’s true that these guys were both supported by the Republican establishment, but that’s not the same thing. And those people weren’t much enamored of McCain, who ran against Bush in 2000.

I would explain 2000 by saying that there was nobody whose turn it was in 2000, because none of the runners-up in 1996 were ready for prime time. The same will be true in 2016.

But it’s silly not to notice that there seems to be a pretty strong pattern here.

Romney was the runnerup in 2008 and the nominee in 2012.
McCain was the runnerup in 2000 and the nominee in 2008.
There really wasn’t a runnerup in 1996 that anyone could imagine as a future nominee (Steve Forbes?), so 2000 was open.
Dole was the runnerup in 1988 and the nominee in 1996.
Bush was the runnerup in 1980 and the veep in 1981-89 and the nominee in 1988.
Reagan was the runnerup in 1976 and the nominee in 1980.