# Let's predict the opening box office for Star Wars III **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [May 9, 2005, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114 "2005-05-09T21:12:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/1 "2005-05-09T21:12:38Z")
_Star Wars Episode III - Revenge of the Sith_ opens on May 19th. Anybody care to predict it’s Thursday - Sunday US box office take? Whoever is closest without going over gets to gloat for a week. I say: $150,000,000 ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/2 "2005-05-09T21:16:42Z")
That sounds a little high. What is the current record for a 4-day ‘weekend’ opening? ---
**Author:** ![Murcielago](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/da6949/32.png) [@Murcielago](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Murcielago)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/3 "2005-05-09T21:28:30Z")
Is Lucas going to do a massive release on 3200+ screens, or will he limit the movie to theaters equipped with what he considers the proper facilities? I suppose News Corp. will have a say in distribution, though I think Lucas has some control in the matter. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/4 "2005-05-09T21:43:42Z")
WHile youa re doing your predicting, you can enter my contest… > **[Gangster Octopus 3rd Annual Box Office Predicition Contest](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=315769)** > > This year’s contest will be greatly simplified. Whereas in the past I have had folks predict 10 movies opening weekend gorsses, this year I am having just one movie. And that movie, of course, is Star Wars III: The Revenge of the Sith. The rules... ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/5 "2005-05-09T21:44:52Z")
According to Box Office Mojo the record for a 4-day opening (May 15-18, 2003) is _The Matrix - Reloaded_ at $91.7 million. _Spider-Man 2_ had a 3 day opening (May 3-5, 2002) of $114.8 million. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/6 "2005-05-09T21:49:54Z")
IIRC, TPM had a decent opening. Also, AotC had a decent opening but it was lower than TPM. Is there good reason to think that ROtS will open bigger than either of its predecessors? I’ll guess $103 million. ---
**Author:** ![Stark\_Raven\_Mad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Stark\_Raven\_Mad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stark_Raven_Mad)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/7 "2005-05-09T22:04:36Z")
I say $100 million. They’re having a slow summer over in Hollywood, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual figure turns out to be below this. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/8 "2005-05-09T22:04:37Z")
Ep I opened big because of the hype. Ep II did not do as well because of the disappointment of Ep I. I think Ep III will open huge because of the mostly positive reviews (so far), the promise of a lot of kick ass action, the return of Darth Vader (if only for a few minutes), and it’s the last Star Wars movie we likely ever see. Of course, I’m liable to be waaaaaayyyyyy off. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/9 "2005-05-09T22:43:28Z")
Actually, the big question is what box office ranking will Ep.3 have at the end of the year? _Clones_ was the first SW movie not to be #1 of its respective year (it was #3)–what film coming out this year (_WotW, Batman, Kong_) has the best chance of beating it? ---
**Author:** ![brickbacon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@brickbacon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brickbacon)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2005, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/10 "2005-05-09T23:10:53Z")
> [@Mr. Blue Sky](#): > > Ep I opened big because of the hype. Ep II did not do as well because of the disappointment of Ep I. > > I think Ep III will open huge because of the mostly positive reviews (so far), the promise of a lot of kick ass action, the return of Darth Vader (if only for a few minutes), and it’s the last Star Wars movie we likely ever see. > > Of course, I’m liable to be waaaaaayyyyyy off. Episode 2 had a better opening than Episode 1 [did](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/). But, Episode 1 did make more money overall. > [@Mr. Blue Sky](#): > > According to Box Office Mojo the record for a 4-day opening (May 15-18, 2003) is _The Matrix - Reloaded_ at $91.7 million. _Spider-Man 2_ had a 3 day opening (May 3-5, 2002) of $114.8 million. Slight correction. The record for a 4-day opening is **The Matrix-Reloaded** with $134,282,716. The first **Spiderman** movie has the biggest opening weekend (3 days) with [$114,844,116](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/). [**Spiderman 2**](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/) has the 7th biggest opening weekend with $88,156,227. I predict Episode 3 will make 93 million during the 3-day weekend. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2005, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/11 "2005-05-10T03:40:22Z")
I’m thinking it’ll beat Spiderman. So I’ll say $125m. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2005, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/12 "2005-05-10T03:52:30Z")
I think $95 million is about right, though I’m not in America and don’t know how much it’s being hyped. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2005, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/13 "2005-05-20T20:06:33Z")
[CNN story](http://www.cnn.com/2005/SHOWBIZ/Movies/05/20/leisure.starwars.reut/index.html) This encourages me to stand by my $150 million prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2005, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/14 "2005-05-20T20:11:11Z")
9400 screens? Holy crap. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2005, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/15 "2005-05-20T20:16:58Z")
On a similar thread that I started and watch tank…I predicted $85 million, but I was under the assumption that it opened Friday at midnight, instead of the Thursday midnight start. So…kinda late and unfair to change, so I will see if I can find data showing what the three day total is/was when I read [www.hollywoodreporter.com](http://www.hollywoodreporter.com) on Monday. Sometimes they break down the total from the 4 day opening to the three day gross. Wish I could have 1/2% of the worldwide, opening weekend gross…that would pay a few bills. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2005, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/16 "2005-05-20T20:18:50Z")
> [@DMark](#): > > Wish I could have 1/2% of the worldwide, opening weekend gross…that would pay a few bills. I’d take that percentage just from the two theaters in town showing the movie. Each has it on 2 screens for a total of 12 showings each day per theater. ---
**Author:** ![Baggins111](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc29f/32.png) [@Baggins111](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baggins111)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2005, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/17 "2005-05-21T00:34:13Z")
I heard this on NPR today… $50 million in the first 24 hours. On a Thursday no less. It’s a new record. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2005, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/18 "2005-05-22T21:42:05Z")
[$158,000,000](http://www.cnn.com/2005/SHOWBIZ/Movies/05/22/box.office.reut/index.html) And that’s just through Saturday (the story says Friday - Sunday, but Sunday isn’t over with yet). Now, where did I put my Gloating Crown. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2005, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/19 "2005-05-22T22:26:19Z")
I was close for a 3 day, Friday to Sunday run. I bet it will be an average of $43 million (or more) per day for the opening ‘weekend’. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2005, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114/20 "2005-05-23T16:40:17Z")
NPR’s “Morning Edition” announced this morning (Monday, May 23) that Ep III made $50m on opening day, and $158.5m from Thursday through Sunday. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-opening-box-office-for-star-wars-iii/303114.md?page=2)