# Let's predict the past! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 19, 2014, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108 "2014-03-19T20:06:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/21 "2014-03-20T18:02:23Z")
> [@buddy431](#): > > See, I don’t think the internet as a concept would be too surprising. “Big central computers linked up by wires? Maybe I could look up something stored on that computer through this computer? Yeah, that sounds reasonable”. The more surprising aspects are the huge growth in personal computers, and also the huge societal impact that the internet has had. I remember early predictions that the internet would be a minor thing because there would never be any significant amount of content on it to be accessed. One thing that experts apparently missed was the huge untapped pool of creativity waiting in ordinary people. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/22 "2014-03-20T19:33:25Z")
I actually did make some predictions around 1980-ish. One was generated by the observation that ROM chips were getting cheaper and denser. I calculated, using Moore’s law, that by 8-10 years or so (I wish I could remember the exact date), a single ROM would be able to store the audio data for a single 4 minute pop tune, and I wasn’t anticipating compression. So I envisioned teeny-boppers carrying around, not a stack of 45’s (as my generation once did), but a pocket full of ROM chips, each in a more durable case than a DIP chip, but about the same thumbnail size. I didn’t anticipate remote storage or that one larger device would replace thousands of chips because I was using the one song-per-45 model. Another prediction was based upon the Photo kiosks common in shopping centers, where you dropped off a roll of film and picked up the developed film a day or two later. I envisioned a similar kiosk chain where you would place an order for a piece of sheet music, for a certain title, specified instruments, and desired key(s). An expensive computer system would print out all the parts and score while you waited. Since the cheapest printer I could find in those days that was up to the task was $2000, and you had to build your own interface, it didn’t seem likely that home users would have one of those, not to mention the computing power and software that would unaffordable to a music student or casual musician. Probably $40,000 for one music-printing system unit. ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/23 "2014-03-20T19:37:23Z")
I’m really looking forward to commercial space flight to the resorts on the moon I have been repeatedly told will definitely happen. ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/24 "2014-03-20T19:40:08Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I remember early predictions that the internet would be a minor thing because there would never be any significant amount of content on it to be accessed. One thing that experts apparently missed was the huge untapped pool of creativity waiting in ordinary people. Not to mention the even more enormous pool of banal crap, fetishism groups, and porn, porn, porn! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/25 "2014-03-20T19:46:36Z")
> [@pravnik](#): > > Not to mention the even more enormous pool of banal crap, fetishism groups, and porn, porn, porn! 😃 2000 can’t get here soon enough, as far as I’m concerned. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/26 "2014-03-20T20:18:56Z")
The only knowledge I had then? “I don’t wanna take a nap, Mommy!” 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2014, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/27 "2014-03-20T20:28:39Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > The only knowledge I had then? “I don’t wanna take a nap, Mommy!” > > 😛 So your only prediction would probably be “No more naps when I grow up!”? ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2014, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/28 "2014-03-21T21:59:55Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > The really ironic part of this is that the Internet already existed! It was just smaller and out of the public view, mostly linking universities. > > I suspect at the time that most people who were thinking about computing as a utility were still thinking in terms of logging on to some mainframe somewhere. The idea of incremental extension of the network by adding peers was just a little over the horizon, because contemporary home terminals and communications links just weren’t powerful enough. > > Home terminals (computers) would become powerful enough in the mid nineties, and then the big shift to ubiquity would come with the spread of ‘always-on’ connections during the zeroes. When I think of it, the [MINITEL](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minitel) began to be distributed in France in 1982 and most everybody had one some years later (to the point that French people were really late in adopting internet), so the general concept was there, and quite a lot of the services internet provides too (the equivalent of e-mails, chat rooms, message boards, dating services, online orders, access to government services, news, …) except for porn since Minitel screens couldn’t display pictures. Probably the reason why we’re using internet instead 😉 . (\*) But even that came as a surprise to me, and I woudln’t have guessed it would be available 2 years before. (\*) I thought I was joking but then I remembered that porn was precisely the reason why I switched from Minitel to internet. I picked an internet provider because I had read in magazines about all this porn, and began to use it exclusively (apart from some french services/companies that didn’t have yet an internet presence) when I realized it was on the overall so much better than Minitel. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2014, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/29 "2014-03-22T01:25:44Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > The only knowledge I had then? “I don’t wanna take a nap, Mommy!” > [@Czarcasm](#): > > So your only prediction would probably be “No more naps when I grow up!”? The three stages of life: 1. “I don’t wanna take a nap!” 2. “I don’t have to take a nap.” 3. “You know, actually, a nap would be pretty nice.” ---
**Author:** ![Bam\_Boo\_Gut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8c91f0/32.png) [@Bam\_Boo\_Gut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bam_Boo_Gut)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/30 "2014-03-23T23:19:28Z")
Ten league boots where are you? My theory was that some sort of magnetized rail would enable us to strap on boots and wizz off to where ever - we’d figure out how the bluestones were moved and use that technology. Human energy would be easily harnessed in energy mills where we’d all ride bicycles hell for leather to get motion credits and pay our bills, all the while being super fit. The future would be clean - instead there’s an awful lot of junk and wastage. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Battle\_Pope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@Battle\_Pope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Battle_Pope)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/31 "2014-03-23T23:36:08Z")
The Space Shuttle would bring about a new era of cheap space-flight and exploration making a moon base and space stations/hotels common. The Apartheid regime in South Africa would hold out until it was overthrown in a massive & bloody uprising followed by a civil war between the ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/32 "2014-03-23T23:46:38Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Soviet Union fall apart? No way in hell. Not unless it gets hit by a large comet. The Soviet Union was already beginning to implode from its own economic dysfunction, but it wasn’t at all apparent (certainly, at least, not to me) where it was all going to go. If I may take some liberty with the OP’s 1980 start-date, and make a prediction from 1991: After years of Gorbachev’s _perestroika_ and _glasnost_ getting more and more out of control, and the 1991 coup, and the December dissolution of the Soviet Union: The standard meme among the pundits was that a world order (namely, the Cold War) had fallen and a new World Order had begun. My take, at the time (December 1991): I agreed that the entire Cold War qualified as a “World Order” by some definition, and that it was fallen and over and gone and done with and wasn’t coming back. But I doubted that a “new” World Order had begun. I predicted that the Soviet Union would exist in a state of semi-anarchy for at least a good 20 years or so before they settled down into something more stable. And I felt that, for the rest of the world as well, it wasn’t obvious at all when or if a new “World Order” was going to emerge, or what it would look like. Except that it would surely be at least 20 years before any answers began to be apparent. I think I called that one pretty well. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/33 "2014-03-24T02:32:16Z")
> [@Senegoid](#): > > If I may take some liberty with the OP’s 1980 start-date, and make a prediction from 1991 > > I think I called that one pretty well. With all due respect, calling the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a lot easier than calling it in 1980. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/34 "2014-03-24T14:27:13Z")
I thought for sure there would be a lot more nudity. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2014, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/35 "2014-03-24T18:46:33Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > I thought for sure there would be a lot more nudity. On a serious note, I actually did think something like this. _NYPD Blue_ got a lot of publicity in the nineties for breaking the nudity barrier in broadcast television. I figured that once the line had been crossed, other shows would follow and nudity would become a relatively common thing on American television. But while _NYPD Blue_ was a success and a couple of other shows followed its lead, nude scenes in broadcast shows never caught on. ---
**Author:** ![Aquadementia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aquadementia/32/555_2.png) [@Aquadementia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aquadementia)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2014, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/36 "2014-03-25T02:32:48Z")
Predictions may be from slightly before 1980. Get ready for Electronic Mail! Soon you will be able to type your letters on to a punch card the size and postal cost of a postcard, saving you money and the hassle of envelopes. Decode your mail by simply feeding it into your household punch card reader. The uniformly sized cards are neatly output or “downloaded” from the machine into a storage bin for easy reference or incineration. You may never stop at another red light thanks to the electronic road of the future! As you drive down the road your car will trip electric relays imbedded in the asphalt to signal the light control box at the next intersection. A series of relays compute the traffic volume and speed coming from each direction, correlates with other signal lights from the nearest intersections and allows auto traffic through as efficiently as possible. (It’s sad how our immense computer power, radar and cameras are used for issuing tickets while the lights will stop one car when there is no traffic coming from the other direction then make it wait just long enough to stop ten cars so it can finally go through.) ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/37 "2014-03-25T02:40:01Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > This’ll be a toughie, and I hope y’all will keep each other as honest as possible. > > Flashing back to your life back in January 1st, 1980, I want you to predict what life will be like in the year 2000. Using _only_ the knowledge that _you_ had back then, tell us what the society, technology and politics of the far off future of the year 2000 will be like. Will we even exist, or will we finally destroy ourselves? Will there be established and regular travel to the moon, other planets or even other solar systems? What’s _your_ best guess, fellow futurians? For one example of this, consider Heinlein’s Moon Is A Harsh Mistress. Written a bit earlier than your posit, and describes the world a bit later, but not by much. Routine space travel, 4 million people living on the moon, readily available fusion power, world government,… The last is a biggie. The idea of a single world government still had some currency back in 1980. Most believers were giving up, but there were still people who believed it was possible and desirable. Now, I doubt you could find anyone who feels that way. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2014, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/38 "2014-03-25T04:45:17Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > With all due respect, calling the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a lot easier than calling it in 1980. It was already a done deal by December. What I called in1991 was that it would be at least a good 20 years or more before anything like a new “World Order” would emerge, or before the remains of the Soviet Union would emerge from near-anarchy. ---
**Author:** ![FriarTed](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/friarted/32/1052_2.png) [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/39 "2014-03-26T18:29:15Z")
“Shit” would be used as casually on basic TV as “hell” and “damn” are. I am surprised that it’s not while “piss” and “bitch” have some degree of allowance. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 26, 2014, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108/40 "2014-03-26T19:36:44Z")
I truly wish, by the year 2000, that people stop talking about the Vietnam war like it’s the most important event in history. Hope wages can keep up with this crazy inflation! That Volker guy at the Fed might know what he’s doing. Carter sure didn’t. One thing I can guarantee: you’re not going to be able to buy a Japanese car in Michigan today, tomorrow, and 20 years from now! The unions wouldn’t stand for it. There is no way I’ll live to see a black man as President. No way. I’ll see a woman elected first! Speaking of which, I think that ERA has a chance of passing. Thank God for the pill! With STD’s a thing of the past, or at least nothing more than a shot of penicillin can’t cure, this sexy time we’ve had in the 70s is sure to continue. I mean… why give it up? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-predict-the-past/684108.md?page=3)