# Let's solve the overbooking problem with a simple plan **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 14, 2017, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458 "2017-04-14T17:40:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/61 "2017-04-18T09:55:54Z")
> [@Beren\_Erchamion](#): > > So we should all have to pay more for flights? > Because they literally tell you up front exactly what they’re doing and exactly what it is you’re purchasing, which makes it the exact fucking opposite of fraud. > Except that in most cases, the terms of the ticket they’ve sold make them contractually obligated to refund (either in cash or in the form of credit towards a future purchase) at least a portion of the fare paid for the missed seat. > > Which I like, because it means that if I miss a flight because of traffic or breakdown, I’m not completely out everything I paid. > > On the whole, overbooking is good for the consumer–or, at the very least, better than what we’d have if it were forbidden. You really haven’t thought this through, at all. Overbooking means that it’s possible that the consumer will not be able to take a flight. That’s not good for the consumer. Refunds are not a function of overbooking, as you can get refunds up to a certain point for pretty much any service. After that, you’re on the hook for the bill, except in situations where you can try to sell your ticket or such. And I don’t actually believe prices would change all that much. Airlines already charge differently based on numerous factors that have nothing to do with the actual costs to them. Even using two different web browsers can get you different ticket prices. And airlines already lose money any time they have to buy someone out. Getting rid of overbooking means no buyouts, which reduces costs. If, as people seem to say, getting kicked of flights is so rare, that means they don’t have all that much of a problem anyways. They could probably easily make up for it by allowing reserve seating and doing what most concerts do–allow you to pay more at the gate if there are seats open. Maybe this won’t work, but overbooking surely is not the only solution. If so, it would be used in more industries than this one. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/62 "2017-04-18T13:53:14Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Maybe this won’t work, but overbooking surely is not the only solution. If so, it would be used in more industries than this one. It is used in hotels, restaurants that take reservations, dog groomers, hair salons, and utility companies, just off the top of my head. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/63 "2017-04-18T15:10:35Z")
Yup. It’s used in substantially every business where customers don’t show up for appointments. ---
**Author:** ![Beren\_Erchamion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/90ced4/32.png) [@Beren\_Erchamion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beren_Erchamion)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2017, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/64 "2017-04-18T17:57:56Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Overbooking means that it’s possible that the consumer will not be able to take a flight. That’s not good for the consumer. There’s a reason I said _on the whole_. A cheaper flight + the ability to get at least a partial refund if the shit hits the fan for whatever reason is, on the whole, worth the exceedingly small chance that my ticket will be cancelled by the airline. > [@](#): > > Refunds are not a function of overbooking, as you can get refunds up to a certain point for pretty much any service. Airlines have no incentive to give you a refund for matters within your control (or at least outside of their own control) unless they can sell that seat to someone else. And if the things that cause you not to fly happen at the last minute, they don’t have a lot of opportunities to sell that seat to someone else unless they’ve already oversold ahead of time. > [@](#): > > And I don’t actually believe prices would change all that much. Airlines already charge differently based on numerous factors that have nothing to do with the actual costs to them. Even using two different web browsers can get you different ticket prices. Yes. And they’d be even higher with the downward pressure on revenue that ending oversells would create. > [@](#): > > And airlines already lose money any time they have to buy someone out. Getting rid of overbooking means no buyouts, which reduces costs. They’ve optimized the shit out of their inventory-management algorithms so that, on the whole, they make more money than they would if they didn’t overbook. In rare cases they have to offer extra compensation because the predictions didn’t work out on a specific flight, but that’s more than outweighed by the extra revenue they generate by being able to fill every seat on nearly every flight via overbooking. > [@](#): > > If, as people seem to say, getting kicked of flights is so rare, that means they don’t have all that much of a problem anyways. The fact that it’s rare doesn’t mean that they have a problem–it means that, through the use of optimized overselling, they’re incredibly fucking good at managing it, so that the number of oversells is almost always incredibly close to the number of people who don’t show up. > [@](#): > > They could probably easily make up for it by allowing reserve seating and doing what most concerts do–allow you to pay more at the gate if there are seats open. For most people, taking a trip requires a lot more advanced planning then going to a concert for a few hours. > [@](#): > > Maybe this won’t work, but overbooking surely is not the only solution. If so, it would be used in more industries than this one. It is. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/65 "2017-04-19T22:58:23Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > 1. Collusion via one entity buying all the tickets in the first place is the only valid point there, with due respect IMO. If there’s a chance of ‘absurdly high’ market prices in competition we should also have price limits on tickets, and on everything else we buy. I disagree. A limit on damages in extreme circumstances that make a contract unfulfillable is actually quite common, and does not imply price limits on all goods. > [@](#): > > The collusion point would easily be covered by the fact that a) realistically airlines are going to set _some_ limit\* and b) making collusion illegal Well, sure. But notice that the simple solution is no longer quite so simple. It created additional loopholes that have to be plugged. What might be the unintended consequences of this additional fix? The point is that you can’t fix complicated systems with simple rules that you thought up after brief consideration. > [@](#): > > The point about society’s interest v. very high cancellation fees is fatally flawed by the lack of reasonable basis to think the fees would ever be very high again except in case of block ticket buying (passengers all colluding on the fly: non-plausible), or some kickback scheme involving airline employees holding non-auctions, or some other illegal acts. I think you’re suffering from a lack of imagination. What about a software bug that accidentally sells 10k seats for a single flight? What about a natural disaster somewhere that means we really ought to use the planes for another purpose. Saying we shouldn’t have any limits because you can’t think of any reasonable case where they’d be hit is completely backwards. That’s _exactly why we should have limits_. The no-limit policy is identical to the sufficiently-high limit policy except in weird cases that no one saw coming. It’s setting up the mother of all Black Swans. It seems obvious to me that the socially-maximizing limit is somewhere well above the current statutory limit, where they get no volunteers from a flight full of people who are just trying to get somewhere. It seems very unlikely to me that the socially-maximizing policy is _no limit whatsoever_. Infinite liability is a nice clean concept, but it’s got some wicked edge cases. > [@](#): > > \*like Delta saying they’d offer up to $10k. It’s awesome that Delta offered $10k. In any normal circumstance, they’ll never go nearly that high. In some weird-ass-no-one-anticipated-this circumstance, they can afford the $10k hit. If they had pledged a limit up to $1m, I’d be wondering what their CEO was smoking. ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2017, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458/66 "2017-04-19T23:03:13Z")
“What is the seat-width of a business class seat of a Boeing 777 wide body?” “Oh, I don’t know…” _Fwoosh!_ “WHaaaaaaaaaa…!” 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-solve-the-overbooking-problem-with-a-simple-plan/784458.md?page=3)