# Let's Surge Some More - Michael Yon **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 18, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923 "2008-04-18T18:22:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/1 "2008-04-18T18:22:18Z")
[http://online.wsj.com/public/article\_print/SB120787343563306609.html](http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120787343563306609.html) > [@](#): > > It is said that generals always fight the last war. But when David Petraeus came to town it was senators – on both sides of the aisle – who battled over the Iraq war of 2004-2006. That war has little in common with the war we are fighting today. > > I may well have spent more time embedded with combat units in Iraq than any other journalist alive. I have seen this war – and our part in it – at its brutal worst. And I say the transformation over the last 14 months is little short of miraculous. > > The change goes far beyond the statistical decline in casualties or incidents of violence. A young Iraqi translator, wounded in battle and fearing death, asked an American commander to bury his heart in America. Iraqi special forces units took to the streets to track down terrorists who killed American soldiers. The U.S. military is the most respected institution in Iraq, and many Iraqi boys dream of becoming American soldiers. Yes, young Iraqi boys know about “[GoArmy.com](http://GoArmy.com).” > > As the outrages of Abu Ghraib faded in memory – and paled in comparison to al Qaeda’s brutalities – and our soldiers under the Petraeus strategy got off their big bases and out of their tanks and deeper into the neighborhoods, American values began to win the war. > > Iraqis came to respect American soldiers as warriors who would protect them from terror gangs. But Iraqis also discovered that these great warriors are even happier helping rebuild a clinic, school or a neighborhood. They learned that the American soldier is not only the most dangerous enemy in the world, but one of the best friends a neighborhood can have. > > Some people charge that we have merely “rented” the Sunni tribesmen, the former insurgents who now fight by our side. This implies that because we pay these people, their loyalty must be for sale to the highest bidder. But as Gen. Petraeus demonstrated in Nineveh province in 2003 to 2004, many of the Iraqis who filled the ranks of the Sunni insurgency from 2003 into 2007 could have been working with us all along, had we treated them intelligently and respectfully. In Nineveh in 2003, under then Maj. Gen. Petraeus’s leadership, these men – many of them veterans of the Iraqi army – played a crucial role in restoring civil order. Yet due to excessive de-Baathification and the administration’s attempt to marginalize powerful tribal sheiks in Anbar and other provinces – including men even Saddam dared not ignore – we transformed potential partners into dreaded enemies in less than a year. > > Then al Qaeda in Iraq, which helped fund and tried to control the Sunni insurgency for its own ends, raped too many women and boys, cut off too many heads, and brought drugs into too many neighborhoods. By outraging the tribes, it gave birth to the Sunni “awakening.” We – and Iraq – got a second chance. Powerful tribes in Anbar province cooperate with us now because they came to see al Qaeda for what it is – and to see Americans for what we truly are. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/2 "2008-04-18T18:28:54Z")
Og, this dude’s clueless even by the standards of the WSJ editorial page! ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/3 "2008-04-18T18:30:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Og, this dude’s clueless even by the standards of the WSJ editorial page! [/QUOTE] It’s funny you say that since he’s been embedded from the beginning. I’m glad you trust your own judgment from afar enough to know that someone who is there at the front lines has no idea what is going on. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/4 "2008-04-18T18:34:46Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] It’s funny you say that since he’s been embedded from the beginning. [/QUOTE] Experience since 2003 has given us little reason to place much confidence in “embedded” journalists. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/5 "2008-04-18T18:36:09Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Experience since 2003 has given us little reason to place much confidence in “embedded” journalists. [/QUOTE] And who are you trusting? Since you get all of your info from Journalists, how do you choose which journalists to trust? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/6 "2008-04-18T18:50:00Z")
I’ve been reading him for some time. [Here’s](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php) his website; [here](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=section&id=11&Itemid=79) are his dispatches by series. Being a Brit, I found [Men of Valor](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php?view=article&catid=55%3Amen-of-valor&id=385%3Amen-of-valor-part-i-of-about-viii&option=com_content&Itemid=79) most interesting. [Michael Totten](http://michaeltotten.com/) has also spent much time over there. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/7 "2008-04-18T18:54:03Z")
[QUOTE=Quartz] I’ve been reading him for some time. [Here’s](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php) his website; [here](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=section&id=11&Itemid=79) are his dispatches by series. Being a Brit, I found [Men of Valor](http://www.michaelyon-online.com/index.php?view=article&catid=55%3Amen-of-valor&id=385%3Amen-of-valor-part-i-of-about-viii&option=com_content&Itemid=79) most interesting. [Michael Totten](http://michaeltotten.com/) has also spent much time over there. [/QUOTE] What I’ve been reading lately from people who are over there has a lot to do with the treatment of the Awakening Council. There seems to be a lot of agreement that the success of Petraeus has been in the ability to work with the tribes. Both Yon and Totten take this to be true, as did this letter that was forwarded to me from a Marine Noncom stationed in Fallujah that I read a while back. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/8 "2008-04-18T18:54:44Z")
BrainGlutton, you are a fool. You’re addicted to your “This war must fail” mentality and can’t accept that the tide has turned. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/9 "2008-04-18T18:59:31Z")
Same shit, different day. I’ve been hearing for 5 years now how things are getting better, and how the strategy du jour is working. Give me some hard facts to show things are getting better, or shut the fuck up. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/10 "2008-04-18T19:08:54Z")
[QUOTE=treis] Same shit, different day. I’ve been hearing for 5 years now how things are getting better, and how the strategy du jour is working. Give me some hard facts to show things are getting better, or shut the fuck up. [/QUOTE] You don’t consider tip offs from locals to be ‘hard facts’? What exactly are you looking for? ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/11 "2008-04-18T19:15:36Z")
It doesn’t surprise me that you don’t know the difference between hard facts and the article quoted in your OP. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/12 "2008-04-18T19:17:34Z")
[QUOTE=treis] It doesn’t surprise me that you don’t know the difference between hard facts and the article quoted in your OP. [/QUOTE] What makes you think I don’t know the difference? I am asking you what you want to see. How do we derive these facts. Was what Petraeus put forth not good enough for you? What exactly do you want? I mean other than ad hominems. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/13 "2008-04-18T19:32:59Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] What makes you think I don’t know the difference? I am asking you what you want to see. How do we derive these facts. Was what Petraeus put forth not good enough for you? What exactly do you want? I mean other than ad hominems. [/QUOTE] The facts that you think show that the situation in Iraq is improving, and that we are on our way to some sort of victory. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/14 "2008-04-18T19:34:14Z")
Michael Yon is known for taking anything he hears on the street and reporting it as fact - as long as it supports the company line (Bush Administration). Has he come up with any corroboration about how Al-Qaeda roasts children and feeds them to their parents? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/15 "2008-04-18T19:49:01Z")
[QUOTE=treis] The facts that you think show that the situation in Iraq is improving, and that we are on our way to some sort of victory. [/QUOTE] I don’t think anything. I just posted an interesting article. ---
**Author:** ![threemae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f9b8f/32.png) [@threemae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/threemae)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/16 "2008-04-18T19:53:44Z")
Alright, here are some facts. Even better, not just selective facts cherry-picked to support a single position on the war, but facts about broad measures of the state of Iraq now and the entire history of our invasion. > **[Opinion | The State of Iraq: An Update (Published 2008)](https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/opinion/09ohanlon.html?scp=12&sq=brookings%2Binstitution%2Biraq&st=nyt)** > > So far, it is too soon to predict that Iraq is headed for stability or sectarian reconciliation. I think it’s patently obvious that there’s been a significant level of improvement from where we were at many points in the past three years. You can’t run randomized, controlled experiments on the conduct of war, but I think it’s reasonable to say that this improvement is likely due to some mixture of the following factors: a. the troop surge b. improved tactics on our part c. a belief on the part of insurgents that some reduction of hostilities was in their own best interest, either to entrench their positions, consider pursuing power in the political framework, or simply because they lost fighters, popular support, or resources To the extent that the improvement was due to the troop surge (and we can’t take it for granted that it was the sole or even most important cause of improvement in Iraq), then I would support continuing an increase in troop numbers relative to the, “baseline,” in 2005 or early 2006. As Petraeus and others have pointed out, there is a reduced cost in occupying a more stable Iraq. If we can just barely hold Baghdad with 80,000 troops while losing 1,000 troops to violence every year or successfully hold Iraq with 165,000 troops and losing 300 troops to violence every year, I think it’s clear that the “troop surge” strategy is a much better value. **mswas** , as I understand it, Great Debates really isn’t the forum to throw things up just because you find them, “interesting.” It makes for a much more interesting board if you bother to articulate a reasoned position and then try to support that postion outside of just quoting the WSJ Opinion Page. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/17 "2008-04-18T20:06:29Z")
Before the surge began a lot of people agreed that it would lead to a better military position since the insurgents, who are not stupid were going to lay low until it was over. The dispute was about whether there would be an improved political position. Remember, the surge was supposed to be temporary, and it is looking more and more permanent. Do we have reconciliation? Do we have an Iraqi army and police force who can stand on their own? Do we have a reasonable infrastructure yet? Notice, that even after the surge, the insurgents had no problem shelling the green zone. There is also the minor problem of where the troops are coming from, and the danger that we won’t have the resources to meet other threats - in Afghanistan or elsewhere. The surge seems to me like the screwup at the very beginning of the war - a lot of attention to the force part of the equation, which went well, but not enough to the political side. We did an excellent and successful surge into Iraq five years ago, and look what happened. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/18 "2008-04-18T20:06:44Z")
[QUOTE=threemae] **mswas** , as I understand it, Great Debates really isn’t the forum to throw things up just because you find them, “interesting.” It makes for a much more interesting board if you bother to articulate a reasoned position and then try to support that postion outside of just quoting the WSJ Opinion Page. [/QUOTE] Michael Yon has a position, people can debate it. I don’t see why it necessarily has to be about the Original Poster. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/19 "2008-04-18T20:08:54Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] Before the surge began a lot of people agreed that it would lead to a better military position since the insurgents, who are not stupid were going to lay low until it was over. The dispute was about whether there would be an improved political position. Remember, the surge was supposed to be temporary, and it is looking more and more permanent. Do we have reconciliation? Do we have an Iraqi army and police force who can stand on their own? Do we have a reasonable infrastructure yet? Notice, that even after the surge, the insurgents had no problem shelling the green zone. There is also the minor problem of where the troops are coming from, and the danger that we won’t have the resources to meet other threats - in Afghanistan or elsewhere. The surge seems to me like the screwup at the very beginning of the war - a lot of attention to the force part of the equation, which went well, but not enough to the political side. We did an excellent and successful surge into Iraq five years ago, and look what happened. [/QUOTE] Well both Yon and Totten are focusing on the political angle. The Awakening Council as much as the Surge. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923/20 "2008-04-18T20:24:36Z")
[QUOTE=mswas] Michael Yon has a position, people can debate it. I don’t see why it necessarily has to be about the Original Poster. [/QUOTE] An opinion piece from the WSJ is usually the equivalent to a worthless one. Just when I see them claiming that Iraqis have increasing support for us being there (what? from 30% to 31% is good enough then to increase the surge?) they lost me. And missing evidence that Sunni tribesmen will drop any support to us when money does not come their way, and the Maliki fiasco in Basra is enough for me to declare that that opinion piece manages to be even worse than a worthless opinion. More grounded in reality opinions then are needed. > **[Opinion - The Philadelphia Inquirer](https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/)** > [@](#): > > Instead, Maliki - perhaps smarting from U.S. sniping at his incompetence - gave the Americans hardly any notice before embarking on a disorganized military venture. His Iraqi forces weren’t capable of ousting the militias. More than 1,000 of his troops reportedly deserted, including top commanders; U.S. forces and air power had to come to the rescue. > > A Baghdad cease-fire by Sadr that U.S. commanders consider crucial to post-surge security gains came close to breaking. > > But most galling to U.S. officials was this: When the going got tough, top Iraqi Shiite officials rushed to the holy city of Qom in Iran to get help mediating a Basra cease-fire with Sadr. And whom in Iran did they ask for help? As first reported by McClatchy News Service’s intrepid Baghdad bureau chief Leila Fadel, it was none other than Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Brigade of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is the group U.S. commanders accuse of training and arming radical militias. > > In other words, Iraq’s leaders had to turn to an Iranian we label a “terrorist” to get Maliki and his American backers out of a jam. The commander of the Quds Brigade apparently told Sadr to cool off. > > Against this background, Petraeus and Crocker will tell Congress that more time is needed for Iraqi forces and political reconciliation efforts to jell. > > They will also say that a speedy pullout would lead to political collapse and a renewal of all-out fighting - not just Sunnis versus Shiites, but fighting within sects. I think they are right about the consequences of a swift withdrawal. Basra is the perfect example. When the Brits pulled out of Basra, the place collapsed as Shiite gangs warred for turf. > > We don’t know whether a large U.S. troop presence can produce long-awaited political reconciliation or a functional Iraqi government. Iraqis will have 10 more months to work on this conundrum before the next U.S. administration takes office. Within that time there will be provincial elections, and Maliki might even be dumped by Iraqi legislators. > > We do know - as the Basra affair showed - that Iran is crucial to any Iraq solution. And here is where the next president will have an opportunity to try something different - with Iran. > > Iranian officials are clearly awaiting the next American leader. I was told as much by the Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki at the Davos World Economic Forum. The United States and Iran have common interests in avoiding total chaos in Iraq (although the Iranians will continue to stir the pot, so long as they suspect Iraq is a base for U.S. efforts at regime change in Tehran). > > The next White House occupant, unburdened by the rhetoric of “axis of evil,” can explore whether broad talks without preconditions might enable Washington and Tehran to cooperate on Iraq. That, in turn, would facilitate a U.S. drawdown. Even John McCain will have to consider such newthink if he wants to prevent a U.S. military meltdown. > > The Petraeus-Crocker hearings may feed the election media cycle, but they will have little impact on the Iraq policy that will matter - the policy that will be put forward after February 2009. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lets-surge-some-more-michael-yon/445923.md?page=2)