# Liberals (and other Iraq skeptics) unite: take the Krauthammer Challenge! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 21, 2003, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826 "2003-07-21T01:23:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/21 "2003-07-21T13:22:13Z")
Personally, I thought that the air war would last for several weeks, but that the ground war would be over in a matter of days (basically, I thought that they would fight this war like Desert Storm). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/22 "2003-07-21T16:43:46Z")
I did predict a short and not-very-bloody (well, for the Allies, at least) war, and that the “real problems would come after the invasion”. But I must admit I though the “real problems” would be handing over the reins of power to dudes unused to Democracy, not this continued Guerrila war. Oh, well- 2 out of 3 ain’t bad. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Menocchio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de053/32.png) [@Menocchio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Menocchio)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/23 "2003-07-21T16:58:10Z")
**Sam Stone** summarized the results of the predictions in [his thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=169260) (it’s towards the bottom). He left off vague predictions, and even some were hedged in a manner that the participants maight take issue with his summation. Still, it seems that both sides only slightly overestimated US casualties and the length of the “proper” war. Others estimated a lengthy and bloody occupation. FTR, here’s my responses to the relevant questions in that thread: > [@](#): > > How long will the war last? > 2-3 Weeks bombing. > 2 Weeks to Take Baghdad and other major objectves (th end of the “war”, as far as the media is concerned. > 6 Months until teh area is finally pacified to any realistic degree. > > How many American casualties will there be in an Iraq war? > Less than 1,000 in the initial campaign. Moire during the occupation. > > How many Iraqi combatants will be killed? > 10,000 > > How many civilian casualties will there be in Iraq? > Less than 5,000 due to war damage. 20,000 + due to disease, starvation, etc. due to loss of infrastructure resulting from the war. > > Will the Americans be seen as liberators or oppressers by the Iraqi people? > At first, they will be grateful for teh ousting of Saddam. But they’ll begin to resent us soon enough. > > What will Iraq look like a year after the war? > A low key and largely secret civil war. The Shia and the Kurds will both rise up. Baathist hardliners will hold out long after Saddam has died/surrendered/fled the country and gone underground (all likely, IMHO). Sunni fundamentalist will also be active in the region. And a few assholes will carve out their own fiefdoms just because they can. A US supported puppet will rule little outside of the oil and Baghdad itself. In retrospect, I thought the war would be a _bit_ bloodier, and, of course, I was dead wrong on the air war. Still, I wasn’t too far off, and my dire predictions for the occupation and post-war war, will still too soon to call, seem to be in line with current events. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/24 "2003-07-21T17:46:21Z")
Nope, not playing Krauthammer’s self-indulgent little game here. He’s plainly trying to let himself off the hook for having been fooled by telling himself that everyone was fooled. The game is a coping mechanism for him, and anyone who plays it is enabling him - and the segment of the populace who similarly has trouble admitting having been fooled (board’s been a little quiet lately, hasn’t it?). But FTR, things are happening pretty much as I’d expected, although it’ll have to be a few more years to be sure. The only ones who have to reconsider are those who were selling us visions of peace, harmony, and American-style democracy and capitalism breaking out over the entire Middle East within months of the simple ouster of Saddam, just like music and colors returning to Pepperland after the Beatles bonked the Blue Meanies. Krauthammer was one of that group, of course. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/25 "2003-07-21T17:51:44Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by samclem \* > You lost me there, RTF. I respect you. NOT Krauthammer. > > You’ll have to offer some additonal proof that he’s worth supporting. Yeah, what he said. I get enough Krauthammer in my weekly copy of _Time,_ and while he was fairly level-headed before, nowadays he’s making a beeline for the right-wing loony special. Give him another three months and he’ll be **Brutus** with a better vocabulary. Anyway, I can’t remember exactly what I predicted about the war, and I’m too lazy to look, but I’m fairly confident that I predicted the US would steamroll over the Iraqi army. I know I _didn’t_ predict how Bush’s excuses for war would fall apart so soon afterwards, though. ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/26 "2003-07-21T18:13:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Fenris \* > \*\*I disagree with your characterization of my characterization not being accurate. 😉 Well I disagree with your…ugh, never mind. > [@](#): > > First, he’s presenting the two scenarios as equal possiblities. He’s not saying “It’s likely that the Iraqi army will collapse and we’ll only lose 500 people, but if the worst happens…” The way he phrases it, it’s a 50/50 chance either way. That’s simply not true. There is absolutely nothing in the cited quote about the relative statistical chances of either scenario. His point was that all scenarios should be _considered_. He makes no predictions as to which scenario is more or less likely. > [@](#): > > And secondly, 50,000-100,000 is a remarkably silly worst case scenario Yes, in light of what actually happened, it seems quite silly. And had that been your only point, I wouldn’t have said anything. I’m not disagreeing with your point, just pointing out that you overstated it. You didn’t say he came up with an overblown worst case scenario, you said he was “screaming about how we were going to lose” that many troops. Do you understand the difference between: “We MIGHT lose a few hundred troops, or we MIGHT lose 50-100,000 troops” and “We ARE GOING TO lose 50-100,000 troops”? > [@](#): > > But, as I said, that was one of the more mild of his predictions. When he was toying with the idea of another run at the presidency, he was on the radio/tv in Colorado on a regular basis predicting dire consequences (and using higher numbers). Could be, but you’ll notice that I said “based on the link you provided”. And even if his worst-case scenario WERE higher than what you originally posted, it’s still a mischaracterization that he said we ARE GOING TO lose that many troops. ---
**Author:** ![Scylla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@Scylla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scylla)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/27 "2003-07-21T18:29:18Z")
Well, **I** thought the war would take longer than 3 weeks. I figured two to three months, but then I imagined we’d be doing it conventionally which would be basically fighting the whole way and securing our lines each step of the way. What we actually did was a Blitzkrieg. We just charged straight into the heart and destroyed organized resistance and C&C, taking the country basically intact. This tactic produced a very short war which was light on casualties comparatively speaking. The trade off is that we have a bigger mopping up job to do. It is my hope that the coming months will show the actions against American soldiers in recent weeks will mark the end of this mopping up period. It is my fear that we may face something like a protracted organized resistance that may grow and intensify. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/28 "2003-07-21T18:34:22Z")
Thanks, all, for the link to the Middle East Predictions thread. It’s not as useful as I’d hoped; it’s missing a lot of the people one would hope to find there, including me. I can only hazard the WAG that I mentally associated “Middle East” with “Israel/Palestine” and skipped on past. I suspect that if it had been titled “The Iraq War Prediction Thread” it might have done somewhat better. Such is life. Seems that some of us don’t agree on Krauthammer. Maybe we need a couple of threads like, “Liberals, which conservative columnists do you find worth reading?” and “Conservatives, which liberal columnists…” but let’s try that on another day. Concerning Gary Hart, I suppose it’s possible that a couple hundred people, scattered across America, were taking him seriously. But whatever he may have said, it’s not an indication of widespread belief in any position by anybody. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/29 "2003-07-21T20:15:04Z")
Well, I did not _explicitly_ say “short war followed by interminable problems”, but I did say “short war” and expressed doubt that the Bush Administration knew _how_ to wage the peace in the [Yippe kai yai yea, we are goin to war!](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3152490#post3152490) thread. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2003, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826/30 "2003-07-21T23:27:35Z")
Everything happened precisely as I anticipated. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/liberals-and-other-iraq-skeptics-unite-take-the-krauthammer-challenge/189826.md?page=1)