# Libya after Gaddafi? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 10, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541 "2011-07-10T20:32:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/41 "2011-07-13T14:02:43Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > Who knows? There has hardly been a national dialogue allowing all opinions to be heard. Well, that is entirely Gaddafi’s fault, isn’t it? No such has been allowed under his decades of rule. Not the policy of a ruler confident of the people’s support. > [@Commissar](#): > > What is apparent is that the differences are very much material ones, as most people won’t go to war and risk getting shot in the face simply out of boredom. I doubt there’s a volunteer army in the world without a few soldiers in it who enlisted out of sheer boredom. But, generally true. But, OTOH, people who will go to war for political abstractions are comparatively rare. The rebels against Gaddafi obviously feel actual **grievances,** seriously enough that they **will** risk death to redress them. ---
**Author:** ![Bibliovore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Bibliovore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bibliovore)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/42 "2011-07-13T14:17:28Z")
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. - John F. Kennedy If a government does not allow the governed to scrutinise it, to question it, to criticise it and to hold it to account, and if it does not allow them to do so without fear of imprisonment, torture or death, that that government is a tyranny and is unfit to rule. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/43 "2011-07-13T14:25:00Z")
> [@Bibliovore](#): > > Dear God, let it be true. I’ve had this discussion with several Libyans and Libyan businessmen, but the feeling is that given Libya’s low population, vast natural resources and fantastic potential, there’s no reason it’s can be better than Dubai if the money is managed properly. You mean there’s no reason it **can’t** be better than Dubai, don’t you? Libya has wonderful potential for tourism, too, I should think. Convenient to Europe, (probably) cheaper than Egypt, (definitely) less crowded than Egypt, lovely African-Mediterranean coastline, lotsa cool ancient and medieval ruins. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/44 "2011-07-13T14:27:58Z")
> [@Bibliovore](#): > > Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. > > - John F. Kennedy > > If a government does not allow the governed to scrutinise it, to question it, to criticise it and to hold it to account, and if it does not allow them to do so without fear of imprisonment, torture or death, that that government is a tyranny and is unfit to rule. Weellll . . . Nowadays, that makes sense, but let’s not set the “fit to rule” bar at a point where **almost no government in human history** would have passed it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/45 "2011-07-13T15:17:43Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > Take the Afghan Taliban as an example: did they give up the fight after the US took Kabul? Nope; a decade later, they’re still fighting the occupiers with a passion. I suspect that a similar scenario will likely unfold in Libya. Even if the Western bombardment dislodges Qadaffi and the rebels take Tripoli, the loyalists will continue the fight. :dubious: No, I don’t think even you really believe that for a moment. Without Gaddafi and his family, what would “loyalists” have to fight **for?** The regime really has never been **about** anything else. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/46 "2011-07-13T16:22:22Z")
> [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > Yeah, well , for the moment Kaddhafi is still there, the rebels dont seem to be able to fight effectively, and the Nato bombings havent been the tide turner they were supposed to be. > You might very well have him, or a member of his family, as head of Lybia for some time. Hmm, when NATO started the guy was about to take over Benghazi. Now he seems to be on his back-foot even in the West. I think that this is quite the tide turning, although it wasn’t the magic wand that journalists were expecting. But journos are basically superficial gits anyway. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That’s what I meant. Heck, you’ll probably get way better shiny-new infrastructure, five or ten years down the road, than you would have had if Gaddafi had built it. **(He** might have brought in unemployed Soviet engineers and architects! :eek:) > > In fact, if everything shakes out properly, I envision a high-speed rail line from Marrakech to Port Said, with a tunnel under the Straits of Gibraltar linking to Europe! 🙂 (All decades away, of course.) High speed rail over that geography makes no bloody sense at all. Rational, non-political infrastructure - as anywhere in Africa - I am sure would be of huge value. Even of more value, effective mechanisms and procedures to allow people and goods to cross borders. Far more useful than pissing away money on some damned high speed rail. > [@Bibliovore](#): > > Dear God, let it be true. I’ve had this discussion with several Libyans and Libyan businessmen, but the feeling is that given Libya’s low population, vast natural resources and fantastic potential, there’s no reason it’s can be better than Dubai if the money is managed properly. Sorry mate, but Libya is not going to be Dubai this century. Just like Malaysia isn’t Singapore. Being Singa wouldn’t be bad, but a city state one can move in ways that one can’t move a country. Although given the whack shite that I have seen Q doing in Africa, if Libya just started spending its money in a half-way sensible fashion (i.e. not completely insane), I am sure that you’d jump light years ahead. > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You mean there’s no reason it **can’t** be better than Dubai, don’t you? He may mean that, but it aiin’t going to happen. Benchmark Libya against a proper country, Indonesia, Malaysia, not a city state. It simply isn’t fair. > [@](#): > > Libya has wonderful potential for tourism, too, I should think. Convenient to Europe, (probably) cheaper than Egypt, (definitely) less crowded than Egypt, lovely African-Mediterranean coastline, lotsa cool ancient and medieval ruins. That would probably be true, I have heard absolute horror stories about getting visas to go to Libya from colleagues / friends in various areas. If Libya just had a no-visa tourism policy for Europeans they would do massive business… but attention, you need a hotel infrastructure else one will waste the first impression. Still I can see a start up with open visa, but focused on high end tour operators, while attracting in private capital to invest in and manage a real tourism sector. That could create some serious revenues. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/47 "2011-07-13T16:30:49Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > High speed rail over that geography makes no bloody sense at all. Rational, non-political infrastructure - as anywhere in Africa - I am sure would be of huge value. Even of more value, effective mechanisms and procedures to allow people and goods to cross borders. Far more useful than pissing away money on some damned high speed rail. How about a Marrakech-to-Port-Said freeway, then? **That** can be very useful over long, sparsely-populated distances, as the U.S. has proved. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/48 "2011-07-13T17:00:48Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > How about a Marrakech-to-Port-Said freeway, then? **That** can be very useful over long, sparsely-populated distances, as the U.S. has proved. Well, like I said, from my experience in Africa, the most important part is not the pouring of cement, it is addressing the administrative barriers - that is the bloody government that you are so in love with. Make the passage of goods and people practical and effective (which in SSA, I see as the usual failure point, heads of state sign grand treaties and then nothing changes at the border because shitty crappy little functionaries make their money out of imposing controls and thus bribes) and after that works, then pour cement. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/49 "2011-07-13T17:14:13Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > Well, like I said, from my experience in Africa, the most important part is not the pouring of cement, it is addressing the administrative barriers - that is the bloody government that you are so in love with. I don’t recall expressing love for any government in North Africa. ---
**Author:** ![Commissar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c68b51/32.png) [@Commissar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Commissar)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/50 "2011-07-13T17:18:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, that is entirely Gaddafi’s fault, isn’t it? No such has been allowed under his decades of rule. Not the policy of a ruler confident of the people’s support. Oh, come on. Even I find it ridiculous to completely blame one side for a complicated situation such as this. What have the traitors done to foster a national dialogue? Have they tried to hold talks with representatives of the other side? Have they tried to resolve their differences through peaceful means? Hell, have they even clarified what their goals, aims, and policies actually are? > [@](#): > > I doubt there’s a volunteer army in the world without a few soldiers in it who enlisted out of sheer boredom. But, generally true. But, OTOH, people who will go to war for political abstractions are comparatively rare. The rebels against Gaddafi obviously feel actual **grievances,** seriously enough that they **will** risk death to redress them. Absolutely. And the loyalists feel actual **loyalty** , seriously enough that they \*\*will \*\*risk death to protect the government. Hence the dilemma. Both sides believe in their respective positions strongly enough to die for them. Neither side has exactly made it clear what these positions are, apart from an all-consuming hatred of the other side. I don’t see a magic bullet that will extinguish these differences any time soon. The killing of the good Colonel will not eviscerate the loyalist resistance any more than the killing of the top traitors would convince the rebels to give up and go home. Libya is probably in this civil war for the long haul. Once you start killing your brethren in earnest, it usually proves pretty difficult to stop. > [@](#): > > :dubious: > > No, I don’t think even you really believe that for a moment. Without Gaddafi and his family, what would “loyalists” have to fight **for?** The regime really has never been **about** anything else. Hah. You severely underestimate the resilience and pride of human beings. What does the Taliban fight for, if it has no real chance of retaking Kabul by military force? What did the French, Polish, Bellorussian, etc. partisans fight for once the NAZIs conquered their homelands? I get the impression that you take an individual-centered view of conflicts; people fight for other people, and if those other people are removed, they stop fighting. The world doesn’t really work that way, though. People will and do fight to the death for abstract concepts such as freedom. The rebels and the loyalists both have their own views as to what constitutes freedom, and neither side is budging. We have seen this scenario play itself out over and over again, and I do not see it falling by the wayside any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2011, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/51 "2011-07-13T17:44:34Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > Oh, come on. Even I find it ridiculous to completely blame one side for a complicated situation such as this. What have the traitors done to foster a national dialogue? Have they tried to hold talks with representatives of the other side? Have they tried to resolve their differences through peaceful means? Hell, have they even clarified what their goals, aims, and policies actually are? :dubious: :mad: Is that supposed to be some kind of sick joke? > [@Commissar](#): > > Hah. You severely underestimate the resilience and pride of human beings. What does the Taliban fight for, if it has no real chance of retaking Kabul by military force? They fight for the cause of Islamist jihadism and all that. But what would Gaddafi-loyalists-minus-Gaddafi have to fight Libya’s new government for? What cause? What beliefs? What ideology? Nothing. Nothing at all. > [@Commissar](#): > > What did the French, Polish, Bellorussian, etc. partisans fight for once the NAZIs conquered their homelands? To defend their homeland from foreign invaders, which is completely irrelevant to the Libyan Civil War. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2011, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/52 "2011-08-19T18:09:05Z")
[Rebels lay plans for keeping order after Tripoli falls.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/in-libya-rebels-plan-for-post-gaddafi-era/2011/08/18/gIQALIP0PJ_story.html) They want to avoid what happened in Baghdad. That’s a hopeful sign, I think. And they’re planning UN-overseen elections “within eight months.” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/53 "2011-08-22T03:23:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Rebels lay plans for keeping order after Tripoli falls.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/in-libya-rebels-plan-for-post-gaddafi-era/2011/08/18/gIQALIP0PJ_story.html) They want to avoid what happened in Baghdad. Now we find out if the plan works. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/54 "2011-08-22T04:15:16Z")
> [@Recovering\_Republican](#): > > I think the whole premise is flawed. I don’t think Khadafy is going anywhere. Oops. > [@Capitaine\_Zombie](#): > > Yeah, well , for the moment Kaddhafi is still there, the rebels dont seem to be able to fight effectively, and the Nato bombings havent been the tide turner they were supposed to be. > You might very well have him, or a member of his family, as head of Lybia for some time. Oops. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/55 "2011-08-22T04:38:18Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Rebels lay plans for keeping order after Tripoli falls.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/in-libya-rebels-plan-for-post-gaddafi-era/2011/08/18/gIQALIP0PJ_story.html) They want to avoid what happened in Baghdad. Without America trying to deliberately tear everything down they certainly have a better chance, ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/56 "2011-08-22T13:51:33Z")
Will General Younis’ tribe be willing to let bygones be bygones, now, I wonder? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/57 "2011-08-22T14:33:55Z")
From [Aljazeera’s Libya Live Blog:](http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Libya) Statement of rebel leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil: > [@](#): > > "We would like to give great thanks to the international community who supported the Libyan people during their crisis and through the resolutions 1970 and 1973 prevented and the procedures taken to protect civilians prevented human catastrophes and massacres that were about to take place against the Libyan people. > > "We thank in particular, all the countries that provided all kinds of support from the birth of this revolution until the moment of victory. Who knows how long that gratitude will last. But, for the moment, it’s significant: Before, we had a country on the Mediterranean whose government was always going out of its way to rattle sabers at the West. And now it looks like we’ll have a government there that feels **grateful** to the West. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/58 "2011-08-22T14:52:40Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Without America trying to deliberately tear everything down they certainly have a better chance, Must be hard for you to always have to align whatever you feel is right against the US even when it’s on side with your perceived ‘ideals’ ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2011, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/59 "2011-08-22T16:02:00Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > From [Aljazeera’s Libya Live Blog:](http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Libya) Statement of rebel leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil: > > Who knows how long that gratitude will last. But, for the moment, it’s significant: Before, we had a country on the Mediterranean whose government was always going out of its way to rattle sabers at the West. And now it looks like we’ll have a government there that feels **grateful** to the West. If you watched the Al Jazeera arabic channel the last two nights, in Ben Ghazi square you saw the sea of people and among the revolution flags they also waved the flags of the countries that have supported them. One should make the comparison with the event in Baghdad of the americans making the photo of pulling down the statue of Sadam and pretending in the photo there were many many Iraqis there, when there were few. This is the difference between genuine revolution and the fake initiative of Bush. The USA and the NATO efforts were attached this time to a real genuine popular movement, and it was evident in the liberation of Tripoli with thousands and thousand coming out despite the great danger. This is the smart way to do things, not to send the American troops in. Give support to those seeking liberation, as in this case. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/60 "2011-08-23T00:02:09Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > If you watched the Al Jazeera arabic channel the last two nights, in Ben Ghazi square you saw the sea of people and among the revolution flags they also waved the flags of the countries that have supported them. > > One should make the comparison with the event in Baghdad of the americans making the photo of pulling down the statue of Sadam and pretending in the photo there were many many Iraqis there, when there were few. This is the difference between genuine revolution and the fake initiative of Bush. The USA and the NATO efforts were attached this time to a real genuine popular movement, and it was evident in the liberation of Tripoli with thousands and thousand coming out despite the great danger. This is the smart way to do things, not to send the American troops in. Give support to those seeking liberation, as in this case. So, what does that imply for how we should approach Syria? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541.md?page=4)