# Libya after Gaddafi? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 10, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541 "2011-07-10T20:32:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/61 "2011-08-23T00:09:36Z")
[Experts say it could take a year or more](http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Getting-Libyan-oil-back-to-market-could-take-years-2136117.php) to get the Libyan oil industry up and exporting again. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/62 "2011-08-23T16:56:43Z")
Much the same as Libya before Gadaffi. There are two big tribal groupings in Libya. Previous to Muammar, peace be upon him, the other group, under King Idris, held power. The there was a coup and the Arab world’s most interesting dresser took power. Now the idris grouping will retake power, backed mightily by the US whose corporations will be more handsomely rewarded with oil development concessions than under the previous regime. There’ll be lots of talk about democracy and new constitutions but come on, look how the Arab Spring is currently working out elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2011, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/63 "2011-08-23T17:39:42Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > Much the same as Libya before Gadaffi. There are two big tribal groupings in Libya. Previous to Muammar, peace be upon him, the other group, under King Idris, held power. The there was a coup and the Arab world’s most interesting dresser took power. Now the idris grouping will retake power, backed mightily by the US whose corporations will be more handsomely rewarded with oil development concessions than under the previous regime. This is fiction and fantasy. The King Idris was from a Sufi group of national reach, the Sannusi Zaouia, he was not a tribal leader. This fantasy and bad faith fiction that an Idris group is taking power. We have already seen Tripoli and the towns of the West spend their blood in uprising against Qadafi. It is a gross bit of propaganda or believing propaganda, this story. > [@](#): > > There’ll be lots of talk about democracy and new constitutions but come on, look how the Arab Spring is currently working out elsewhere. Yes, look. What do you know in fact? You speak Arabic? In Tunisia they are preparing elections and the progress made is good. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/64 "2011-08-24T16:19:26Z")
I guess the question that arises now is, does the National Transitional Council – a kind of self-organized, volunteer government (as revolutionary governments generally are) – have the legitimacy/popularity to govern the country until elections can be held? ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/65 "2011-08-24T18:36:52Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > This is fiction and fantasy. The King Idris was from a Sufi group of national reach, the Sannusi Zaouia, he was not a tribal leader. This fantasy and bad faith fiction that an Idris group is taking power. We have already seen Tripoli and the towns of the West spend their blood in uprising against Qadafi. It is a gross bit of propaganda or believing propaganda, this story. > Yes, look. What do you know in fact? You speak Arabic? In Tunisia they are preparing elections and the progress made is good. But Idris was supported by the tribes who ran the show under him but were on the outs under Gadaffi. And while it isn’t an exact match but the pro-Idris tribes/areas who did very poorly under Gadaffi are now the rebels overthrowing him. So it’s plus ca change basically. They’re preparing elections in Egypt too and the existing power structure along with billions of dollars of US money and expertise is doing everything it can to put a new government face on the same old elite structure. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2011, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/66 "2011-08-24T22:02:07Z")
From an [interview with Gilbert Achcar,](http://www.democracynow.org/2011/8/24/the_1_billion_dollar_question_who) a prof at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London: > [@](#): > > AMY GOODMAN: Who are the rebels, Gilbert Achcar? > > GILBERT ACHCAR: Who are the rebels? Well, this is actually the $1 billion question, actually, because even in NATO circles, you find the same questions. The fact is, of course, we know about the Transitional National Council, and even that is a limited knowledge because not all the members of this council are known, and there will be new members announced in order to represent the remaining areas, including Tripoli. And here you find a mixture of, you know, liberals and former regime members and traditional people representing tribal or original components of the country. > > What we can judge really is the program put forward by this council. In terms of a political program, what we have looks like a democratic blueprint for a democratic transition. They pledged to organize election, and actually two rounds of election: one for a constituent assembly, which would draft a constitution, and then a second round of election, based on the constitution, to elect a final government. **And they pledged—and I’m really skeptical about it—but they pledged even that all the members of the existing National Council, the Traditional National Council, would not, I mean, enter in this electoral arena for the two rounds of election.** Well, of course, this, again, remains to be seen. > > At the level of the economic program that is represented in the existing cabinet of the council, you find people who actually were already playing the same role under Gaddafi in supervising the neoliberal reforms in the country. So nothing much original, I think, to expect in that regard. I mean, this is not a socialist revolution. I don’t think anyone has ever had any kind of illusion about that. > > But this said, when we think of the rebels in terms of the fighting people, the fighting groups, when you think of the rebels in terms of the masses that have been—the insurgent masses that we have even seen in Tripoli on Sunday night coming out in huge numbers in what was formerly called the Green Square, which is the Martyrs’ Square, well, then you find, I mean, a completely heterogeneous landscape, and I would say the overwhelming majority of these people are people with no previous political background, and including those holding weapons now, because you have—I mean, most of the—on the rebel side, most of the people holding weapons were civilians before that. They were not military. And most of these people, you know, after 42 years of dictatorship, without any real, genuine political life in the country, are very difficult to describe politically. We will have to wait and see what will come out, when you will have a real political struggle starting in the country, in the same way that we have—we are witnessing a political struggle going on in Egypt or Tunisia, the two countries where the dictators have been toppled until now. !!! The bolded part – bad idea! See the [Self Denying Ordinance.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-denying_Ordinance#French_Revolution) ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/67 "2011-08-25T07:24:54Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > But Idris was supported by the tribes who ran the show under him but were on the outs under Gadaffi. And while it isn’t an exact match but the pro-Idris tribes/areas who did very poorly under Gadaffi are now the rebels overthrowing him. So it’s plus ca change basically. This is again a ficiton you have written, because it is clear you speak no arabic and you are just telling a story. The rising of the cities in the West, where hundreds of native citizens have died make show this to be fiction told for some political point of view, a simple narrative. There is not any connexion between the support to Idris and the opposition to Qadafi now, which is east and west which we have seen from the people dying themselves, despite the inventions of propaganda. > [@](#): > > They’re preparing elections in Egypt too and the existing power structure along with billions of dollars of US money and expertise is doing everything it can to put a new government face on the same old elite structure. Oh yes, everything USA, USA, the centre of the world. The Egyptians power is from the Egyptian currents. The Americans are not making the Brotherhood and the Salafistes powerful, and they are not happy. The Americans are still writing cheques because they do not know how else to keep Suez open, but they are not controling the Egyptian politics. They are riding the wave only. Of course people who are just getting story telling in English will believe other things. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/68 "2011-08-25T10:40:26Z")
Ramira, if you don’t mind, could you tell us a little bit about yourself? You’ve clearly got a lot to tell us, and you certainly appear to be someone whose first language is not english. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/69 "2011-08-25T16:32:32Z")
[Mahmoud Jibril tours the capitals of Europe in effort to get Libyan state funds unfrozen.](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2011/08/201182524919976977.html) ([Jibril](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Jibril) is the Chairman of the Executive Board of the NTC – the nearest thing Libya has to a prime minister at the moment.) It should happen soon, I expect. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/70 "2011-08-25T17:55:55Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > This is again a ficiton you have written, because it is clear you speak no arabic and you are just telling a story. The rising of the cities in the West, where hundreds of native citizens have died make show this to be fiction told for some political point of view, a simple narrative. > > There is not any connexion between the support to Idris and the opposition to Qadafi now, which is east and west which we have seen from the people dying themselves, despite the inventions of propaganda. > > Oh yes, everything USA, USA, the centre of the world. > > The Egyptians power is from the Egyptian currents. The Americans are not making the Brotherhood and the Salafistes powerful, and they are not happy. The Americans are still writing cheques because they do not know how else to keep Suez open, but they are not controling the Egyptian politics. They are riding the wave only. > > Of course people who are just getting story telling in English will believe other things. I’ve taken a keen interest in the Middle East for over thirty years, since back when I was going to school in England with a lot of the sons of various players in the region. I’ve got ongoing friendships with people from the region since I was eight or nine years old and i’m forty two now. I’ve forgotten more about the Middle East than some “experts” you see quoted in the media know about it. I bet I know people from more countries and have been to more Middle Eastern countries than you have. I stand by my argument that the majority of the rebels are groups who were in the ascendancy under the previous regime. No area in Libya or anywhere else is going to be monolithically pro-one particular group so people dying fighting Gadaffi in the west of Libya means nothing. I’m interested to see just how much power the Brothers, peace be upon them, and the other currents can muster against the combined might of Egypt’s existing army-based power structure and its US backing. I’d be delighted to see an outbreak of freedom in Egypt or anywhere else but I wouldn’t put any money on it. ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/71 "2011-08-26T00:22:47Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > I’d be delighted to see an outbreak of freedom in Egypt or anywhere else but I wouldn’t put any money on it. Most of the quote I am taking this from is suffering from the logical fallacy “Appeal from Authority”, if I’m not mistaken. But the bit I’m curious about, in regards the quote I’ve selected, is if you would feel the same way if it was a pro-Western, or even _gasp_ a pro-US freedom? Or is that mutually exclusive? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/72 "2011-08-26T16:56:22Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Rebels lay plans for keeping order after Tripoli falls.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/in-libya-rebels-plan-for-post-gaddafi-era/2011/08/18/gIQALIP0PJ_story.html) They want to avoid what happened in Baghdad. That’s a hopeful sign, I think. So far [there has been some looting,](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/26/us-libya-transition-idUSTRE77P4FE20110826) at least at the Bab al-Aziziya complex. However, “Elsewhere in Tripoli, rebels supervised the collection of government office equipment to save it from looters.” ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/73 "2011-08-26T18:19:05Z")
> [@Tristan](#): > > Most of the quote I am taking this from is suffering from the logical fallacy “Appeal from Authority”, if I’m not mistaken. > > But the bit I’m curious about, in regards the quote I’ve selected, is if you would feel the same way if it was a pro-Western, or even _gasp_ a pro-US freedom? > > Or is that mutually exclusive? Seeing as how the US propped up the Mubarak regime and pretty much every other Arab despot for the last half century plus and the colonial powers like Britain and france have such an interesting history in the region, exactly how likely is it that there would be an outbreak of pro-US or western sentiment in Egypt or elsewhere in the region? So yes, it’s mutually exclusive. I’d love to see you make an argument that there could be a substantial outbreak of pro-US/western sentiment somewhere over there. ---
**Author:** ![AndyLee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/898d66/32.png) [@AndyLee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndyLee)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/74 "2011-08-26T20:53:46Z")
At least they got rid of that dumb old green flag. Who has a flag that is just green with nothing else on it? That’s just dumb 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2011, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/75 "2011-08-26T21:55:53Z")
> [@Dick\_Dastardly](#): > > Seeing as how the US propped up the Mubarak regime and pretty much every other Arab despot for the last half century plus and the colonial powers like Britain and france have such an interesting history in the region, exactly how likely is it that there would be an outbreak of pro-US or western sentiment in Egypt or elsewhere in the region? Exactly that is very likely now, in Libya. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/76 "2011-08-29T14:26:06Z")
[UN “plan for post-Gaddafi Libya” leaked.](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2011/08/20118291127750603.html) > [@](#): > > The document outlines plans for UN-assisted elections in the next six to nine months. > > It also calls for the deployment of 200 unarmed military observers and 190 UN police officers to serve as trainers. > > But it says such a deployment would only be implemented if it was requested by Libyan authorities and authorised by the UN Security Council. > > "If requested by the Libyans and authorised by the Council, the UN could contribute to confidence-building and to the implementation of agreed military tasks, through unarmed UN military observer (UNMOs). > > “Such confidence-building might be necessary for the troops of the Gaddafi government which will find themselves under the control of hostile forces. The UNMOs might also act as some deterrence against ill treatment of the former enemy by rogue elements.” Sounds good. I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/77 "2011-08-29T16:25:17Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Exactly that is very likely now, in Libya. There’ll be some choreographed stuff for the TV cameras but any Libyan government elected by its people will want Libyan control over its natural resources and not want them handed on a plate to US oil companies, ironically the thing Gaddafi was most famous for doing when he took power. US backing of Israel’s ongoing unpleasantness with the Palestinians will cause anti-US sentiment too, and don’t forget a big chunk of the rebel army are Islamic fundamentalists, a lot of whom were fighting against us in Iraq – Libya was the biggest Arab source of the foreign foghters who were part of the Iraqi insurgency. Arab distrust and dislike of US foreign policies in its region have never been at higher levels than they are now, even during the Bush invasion of Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/78 "2011-08-29T16:44:04Z")
I think you need some citations for… well, every sentence, really. The NATO campaign built up a _ton_ of good will in Libya (and possibly elsewhere in the MENA). More to the point, the West doesn’t need “natural resources… handed on a plate to US oil companies” —it has an interest in having the oil sold to them. The issue with Qaddafi was, he generally took the money he made selling oil and put it in Swiss bank accounts, etc., rather than spending it on his people. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/79 "2011-08-29T17:05:41Z")
> [@straight\_man](#): > > I think you need some citations for… well, every sentence, really. The NATO campaign built up a _ton_ of good will in Libya (and possibly elsewhere in the MENA). More to the point, the West doesn’t need “natural resources… handed on a plate to US oil companies” —it has an interest in having the oil sold to them. The issue with Qaddafi was, he generally took the money he made selling oil and put it in Swiss bank accounts, etc., rather than spending it on his people. In the late sixties Gaddafi actually managed to get bigger increases in royalties from US oil companies than the creation of OPEC did. He actually caused OPEC to renegotiate almost all of its natioanl concessions. Gaddafi then started nationalising Libyan oilfields and this was the first of the wave of nationalisation of Middle Eastern oil that we saw over the next few years. Whether the next regime gives more of the revenue to the Libyan people rather than on itself remains to be seen. I can’t see there being much of a difference when it all settles down again. There’ll be a scramble for Libyan oil from all over the world now, lets’ see whether US companies don’t want to be part of it. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2011, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541/80 "2011-08-29T19:10:00Z")
Mm. The people who are going to be screwed here are the Russians. Libyans are very aware of how little Russia wanted to help, and Russia had some fairly large investments. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-after-gaddafi/588541.md?page=5)