# Libya too?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 16, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595 "2011-02-16T16:37:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/301 "2011-02-23T15:46:09Z")
I saw a similar (unconfirmed) report yesterday or the day before about Kaddafi ordering the destruction of the oil pipelines and possibly the oil wells as well. AFAIK, it’s still unconfirmed, though it’s certainly causing a lot of panic in the oil markets atm. -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/302 "2011-02-23T15:46:26Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > Minor data point: a Tunisian facebook friend of mine was getting into heated arguments (in French, so I only got the jist) about whether Tunisia would be justified/wise to intervene. A bloody civil war on the border is not a good situation for any country. Everything said in this thread about the inadvisability of Egypt intervening applies with equal force to Tunisia. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/303 "2011-02-23T15:56:04Z")
Maybe Israel should intervene. On Ghaddafi’s side. You know, to unify and mobilize the opposition. ---
**Author:** ![Agnostic\_Pagan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c4cdca/32.png) [@Agnostic\_Pagan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agnostic_Pagan)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/304 "2011-02-23T15:58:25Z")
He is losing it. Hopefully today will be the tipping point for the military. [Gaddafi losing control of cities in western Libya](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011223125256699145.html) > [@](#): > > Protesters in Misurata said on Wednesday they had wrested the western city from government control. In a statement on the internet, army officers stationed in the city pledged “total support for the protesters”. Misurata is the third largest city. He seems to have lost the entire east. Al-Jazeera says there were no guards at the border. And Tobruk is now controlled by protesters. > [@](#): > > Major General Suleiman Mahmoud, the commander of the armed forces in Tobruk, told Al Jazeera that the troops led by him had switched loyalties. “We are on the side of the people,” he said. Looks like almost everything but Tripoli has switched. Hopefully the protesters will remain united and it does not turn into a civil war. I have not heard of any sectarian violence - though I don’t think they have any of note. I hope any evacuation flights/ships are also bringing in medical supplies. That seems to be the greatest need among the people right now. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/305 "2011-02-23T16:06:48Z")
> [@Agnostic\_Pagan](#): > > I have not heard of any sectarian violence - though I don’t think they have any of note. [They’re pretty much all Sunni Muslims.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya#Religion) ---
**Author:** ![Agnostic\_Pagan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c4cdca/32.png) [@Agnostic\_Pagan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agnostic_Pagan)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/306 "2011-02-23T16:16:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [They’re pretty much all Sunni Muslims.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya#Religion) That is what I thought, but that doesn’t guarantee there aren’t any subdivisions. I honestly don’t know how religious the Libyans are compared to Egypt and other Islamic countries. I doubt he allows imams anymore freedom than any other group. Allah knows what crazy version of Islam that Qaddafi believes in, considering what his versions of socialism and democracy are. (And Allah is probably still trying to figure it out as well.) Just saw a CNN report of two pilots ejecting and letting their bombers crash into the desert rather than bomb Benghazi. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/307 "2011-02-23T16:32:20Z")
Everything published so far indicates the break lines are not religious, but the tribes and ethnic groups. Seems like looking for the Shia Sunni problem here is looking through the wrong lenses. Since there seems to be unanimity among all the analyses on this, I’d forget wondering about sects. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/308 "2011-02-23T16:34:08Z")
The other thing I read, and I don’t know how to judge this, is a big East-West division. Apparently the East, in particular old Cyrenacia is very culturally / tribally different than the West. I read some speculation (forget where now) that even if Gaddafi falls that tribal / regional divisions could continue fighting. I think East has most of the oil - read that somewhere, true? ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/309 "2011-02-23T16:36:18Z")
Maybe not the place, but to mention the UK media are all up in arms as UK gov is completely failing on the citizens services front. I saw the same stuff reEgypt, but I thought it overdone. But this time again, and in Libya it’s a bit crazy to be giving out help line numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/regallag_the_axe/32/445_2.png) [@Regallag\_The\_Axe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Regallag_The_Axe)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/310 "2011-02-23T16:54:48Z")
Now that it seems inevitable; what happens after Qaddafi falls? Is there _anyone_ who can step in and take power? Does Libya disintegrate into into something like Somalia? My knowledge of Libya is limited to little more than what I’ve seen in this thread, so anyone with experience/knowledge feel free to weigh in. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/311 "2011-02-23T17:54:14Z")
It disintegrates, but not like Somalia. There is no opposition party in Libya, which makes the question of “Who takes over?” rather dicey. My guess would be a “temporary” military government, followed by elections “as soon as feasible.” There is too much oil and too much money to be made for Libya to dissolve into total extended chaos. The reason Somalia has stayed in that condition for so long is that there is nothing there anybody cares about. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/312 "2011-02-23T18:31:37Z")
> [@wmfellows](#): > > The other thing I read, and I don’t know how to judge this, is a big East-West division. Apparently the East, in particular old Cyrenacia is very culturally / tribally different than the West. I read some speculation (forget where now) that even if Gaddafi falls that tribal / regional divisions could continue fighting. I think East has most of the oil - read that somewhere, true? [Yes.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=13490189&highlight=cyrenaica#post13490189) ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/313 "2011-02-23T19:29:03Z")
The East and the West [have both fallen to the opposition](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011223125256699145.html), though. (Just to clarify, Misurata is in the west, and Benghazi is in the east.) ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/314 "2011-02-23T20:22:20Z")
Regarding the army, I heard today that the Libyan army was mostly worthless and under equipped. Except for 8 crack regiments that would still stand by Kadhaffi.The expert was basically saying that the current defections within the army and even of high-ranking officers (according to him without effective power) were of little importance. I just mention this for the record. I’ve no opinion about the value of this statement. Also, apparently, Tunisians living in western Libya have suffered violent attacks and mistreatments, being accused of causing/fueling/whatever the revolt. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/315 "2011-02-23T20:35:11Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > The expert was basically saying that the current defections within the army and even of high-ranking officers (according to him without effective power) were of little importance. They might be of little importance with respect to _determining_ the outcome of the uprising, but they’re still significant in that they show how those people expect this to end. Even diplomats personally appointed by the man are increasingly laying their bets against him. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/316 "2011-02-23T20:50:16Z")
Supposedly, at least one crew of a bomber ejected and let their plane crash rather than bomb the oil supplies. I have not been able to get any really good confirmation of that, though. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/317 "2011-02-23T20:56:31Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Supposedly, at least one crew of a bomber ejected and let their plane crash rather than bomb the oil supplies. I have not been able to get any really good confirmation of that, though. It seems rather odd to jump out of a perfectly good airplane rather than to fly it to Malta. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/318 "2011-02-23T21:38:47Z")
[Gaddafi strikes back,](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8344034/Libya-civil-war-breaks-out-as-Gaddafi-mounts-rearguard-fight.html) or so say gov’t spokesthings. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/319 "2011-02-23T21:55:05Z")
> [@Agnostic\_Pagan](#): > > > [@Alessan](#): > > > > [This one?](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01831/v-girl_1831380i.jpg) > > Yes - that is the photo. I hope see survives this turmoil and her family as well - all Libyans who have protested. The graffiti behind her read: “Ben Ali is 1, Hosni Mubarak is 2, al-Qadhdhafi will be 3, if God wills.” > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > But if one of his personal bodyguards is thinking of putting one in Gaddafi’s head, but feeling conflicted . . . maybe this _fatwah_ could flip him over. _Her_, if you please, her not him. If anyone is in a position to take that shot, she’s a woman. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2011, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/320 "2011-02-23T22:46:03Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > It seems rather odd to jump out of a perfectly good airplane rather than to fly it to Malta. 🙂 You jest, but it could be like the reports from the past that mentioned what dictators from places like North Korea do/did on occasion, they give their fighters just enough fuel to allow only for short missions, and not enough to allow the pilots to go farther and defect. After the Malta defections, I would not be surprised if this is what Ka-daffy is doing now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=17)