# Libya too?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 16, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595 "2011-02-16T16:37:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/981 "2011-03-27T17:04:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Apparently.](http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/27/3174745.htm?section=world) Starting to look like they might actually win this. If they can retake Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, they’re poised to move on Sirt. That would be a tough battle – it’s Gaddafi’s hometown and power base. But if they can take it, they can relieve Misurata and the war is all but won. [Rebels retake Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad.](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/201132681812362552.html) > [@](#): > > “It seems there has a been withdrawal and a surrender of Gaddafi forces, not a battle,” Bays said. “They removed some of their vehicles that were not bombed further up the road but they removed these vehicles in haste.” > > Bays said rebels were intent on pressing onwards in the direction of Tripoli, but he said the town of Sirte presented a major obstacle. > > “There is only one plan. That is to head on, head west up this road. There really is only one coastal road and that is the road to Tripoli. The problem they are going to face is the huge roadblock ahead of us and that’s Sirte, a Gaddafi stronghold where many of his troops are based.” > > Bays has been following the rebel offensive which has seen them claim a string of towns and key oil facilities along the coastline since Friday, triggering celebrations in towns along the route such as Ajdabiya. > > In Ras Lanuf, a major oil exporting terminal, Bays said Gaddafi fighters appeared to have withdrawn with their heavy armour. It’s going to be a bloody week. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/982 "2011-03-27T17:17:19Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > [The Seattle Times | Local news, sports, business, politics, entertainment, travel, restaurants and opinion for Seattle and the Pacific Northwest.](http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014596523_apwalibyarebelfinances1stldwritethru.html) > Interesting article. And not a bad start, as I understand things. And see what he’s doing after just a week on the job: [Rebels say Qatar ready to market east Libyan oil](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/27/us-libya-rebels-oil-idUSTRE72Q1ON20110327) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/983 "2011-03-27T17:57:02Z")
Here’s something I just looked up: Libya has roughly the same area as Alaska (1.7 million square kilometers) and roughly the same population as Indiana (6.4 million). Egypt, by contrast, with an area of 1m sq/km (less than Alaska, more than Texas), has a population of 79 million, approximately those of California, Texas, and New York combined. So, it’s comparatively easier for any prominent individual to get meaningfully involved in Libyan national politics, once there is such a thing. And now there is, ask Dr. Tarhouni. ---
**Author:** ![Commissar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c68b51/32.png) [@Commissar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Commissar)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/984 "2011-03-27T18:23:31Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [Rebels retake Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad.](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/201132681812362552.html) > > It’s going to be a bloody week. I wouldn’t give up hope just yet. > **[Libya: Rebels take Ras Lanuf, Brega , Uqayla, Bin Jawad](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12873434)** > > Libyan rebels recapture four more coastal towns as they advance swiftly towards Colonel Gaddafi's heartland. “They seized the eastern coastal towns of Ras Lanuf, Brega, Uqayla and Bin Jawad after pro-Gaddafi forces withdrew, under pressure from allied air strikes.” That’s not very impressive, is it? Seizing a town abandoned by your enemy hardly qualifies as a brilliant military victory. The rebels tend to do less well when the enemy actually, you know, shoots back: "Misrata is the only significant rebel-held city left in the west, and has been under heavy bombardment for days. On Sunday, a resident of the city told Reuters the city and port area were under attack again. “We don’t know whether it’s artillery or mortars,” he said. Reports from Misrata say food, water and medical supplies are running low." I don’t see this herd of ignorant misfits being able to take any strategic city in the face of any real opposition. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/985 "2011-03-27T18:27:30Z")
Um, dude, the point is that the opposition IS disappearing rapidly. I know how much it chaps you to see a democratic revolt succeed, but you’ll just have to deal with it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/986 "2011-03-27T18:45:25Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Um, dude, the point is that the opposition IS disappearing rapidly. > > I know how much it chaps you to see a democratic revolt succeed, but you’ll just have to deal with it. Nevertheless, I think the government is preparing to make a stand in Sirt. That’s why they pulled back all their heavy armor from Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad. So, it’s going to be a bloody battle for Sirt. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/987 "2011-03-27T19:03:55Z")
Let the Warthogs find some of those tanks first, guys. ---
**Author:** ![Commissar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c68b51/32.png) [@Commissar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Commissar)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/988 "2011-03-27T19:08:57Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Um, dude, the point is that the opposition IS disappearing rapidly. As the BBC article indicates, there is a general level of confusion about what is going on, but it hardly appears to be a retreat on all fronts. For example, the government forces are still very much engaged in street fighting in Misrata, may they have victory in battle. > [@](#): > > I know how much it chaps you to see a democratic revolt succeed, but you’ll just have to deal with it. Huh? What do you mean by “democratic revolt?” What credentials must an armed hooligan possess in order to be considered a “democratic” rebel under your theory? From my perspective, this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/989 "2011-03-27T19:16:17Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > Huh? What do you mean by “democratic revolt?” What credentials must an armed hooligan possess in order to be considered a “democratic” rebel under your theory? From my perspective, this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom. I guess you skipped the Seattle Times report. ---
**Author:** ![Commissar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c68b51/32.png) [@Commissar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Commissar)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/990 "2011-03-27T19:20:47Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > I guess you skipped the Seattle Times report. The one about a Libyan traitor with delusions of grandeur? What point do you imagine that article proves? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/991 "2011-03-27T19:39:32Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > From my perspective, this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom. Look, other than the fact that they are in revolt, what reason do you see to think the rebel troops or their officers or their ad-hoc political leaders or their in-country civilian supporters are “criminal lowlifes” or “ignorant misfits” or any of that? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/992 "2011-03-27T19:39:48Z")
> [@Commissar](#): > > The one about a Libyan traitor with delusions of grandeur? What point do you imagine that article proves? That “traitor” with “delusions of grandeur” has become part of the rebel government. He was invited after organizing with the opposition for many years. But the only reason that I remarked on that article was to show what BS was the affirmation that “this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom.” ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/993 "2011-03-27T19:44:26Z")
Who knows how Egypt and Libya will wind up? They do not have a history for democracy nor do they have democratic institutions in place. It is nice to think they will make a constitution guaranteeing rights of the people. But I would be surprised if it happens. Once the battle is over, someone will be in charge of a victorious army. Will they politely cede rule to civilians? Who is qualified to rule in a democratic manner? For over 40 years one man rule has not developed an educated and experienced public service system. Can they survive through the mistakes and growing pains the new government will cause? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/994 "2011-03-27T19:58:38Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > … the affirmation that “this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom.” That was Cornwallis, wasn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/995 "2011-03-27T20:03:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > That was Cornwallis, wasn’t it? No, Cornwallis said, “I’ll #%?@^ those &_\>/?!% of #&_@#$ by the ?\>”}{(&\*+ and %T%^@@#$$ their \*\*&I#%& with a %#% heated in %#%#^%#%!!!" (Cambridge man, you understand.) It’s easy to get them confused. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/996 "2011-03-27T20:17:52Z")
[![](https://i.imgur.com/Cldv7.jpg) ](https://i.imgur.com/Cldv7.jpg) Here, see the highways around Sirte? It’s bypassable. But the reports are that Sirte is rising up from within. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/997 "2011-03-27T20:47:11Z")
While it’s bypassable, bypassing a potential enemy staging point with a good line at your supply train is a risky move. But perhaps justified if the rebel forces can get to Quadaffi and kill him in time to avoid further bloodshed. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/998 "2011-03-27T22:39:53Z")
It is risky, and they’re not doing it. But it was a possibility. Part of what might have happened was, basically, Sirte was the last chance for Gadaffi to stop the rebels from linking up. So if they wanted to stop them at Sirte, they’d have to mass units there. But since the roads go around Sirte, they’d have to meet them far out in front of the city… and get airstruck. I was kind of wondering if that’d happen. Looks like not. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/999 "2011-03-27T23:40:35Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](http://i.imgur.com/Cldv7.jpg) > Here, see the highways around Sirte? It’s bypassable. But the reports are that Sirte is rising up from within. Since it appears that all these cities (and most of the population) is within a short distance from the Mediterranean coast, could they just load a few thousand rebel fighters on ships, and sail into Tripoli harbor? It’s more complicated than that, but still a possibility, right? That would bypass Sirte and any other fortified spots or ambushes on the roads. And striking at the heart of Gadaffi’s power in the capitol would certainly change the script. He would have to fight there, and would probably recall troops from Sirte & elsewhere to defend the capitol (thus making it easier for the remaining rebels to bypass or capture Sirte, relieve Misrata, and attack the capitol from another direction. He could abandon the capitol and gather his forces elsewhere, but in public opinion, once you are forced out of the capitol, it’s pretty much over. World opinion would decide that a rebel victory was inevitable. More importantly, the people of Libya would decide the same – his support would start to evaporate, as soldiers disappear back into the population and military unit commanders start to negotiate deals with the rebels. Even an unsuccessful attack on the capitol still has much the same effect. It shows Gaddaffi as on the defensive, trying to fight off rebel attacks on the capitol. So he appears weaker, and likely to fall eventually. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2011, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1000 "2011-03-27T23:43:21Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > So if they wanted to stop them at Sirte, they’d have to mass units there. But since the roads go around Sirte, they’d have to meet them far out in front of the city… and get airstruck. > > I was kind of wondering if that’d happen. Looks like not. Bypassing Sirte appears to add about 100 km to the route to Misrata, and takes the rebels through places that do not appear to have towns with sufficient food and fuel supplies to forage. And, as mentioned above, leaves what supply lines they do have subject to being broken. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=51)