# Libya too?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 16, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595 "2011-02-16T16:37:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 85
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1681 "2011-08-04T16:21:31Z")
[Gaddafi claims alliance with Islamists.](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/world/africa/04seif.html) > [@](#): > > TRIPOLI, Libya — After six months battling a rebellion that his family portrayed as an Islamist conspiracy, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s son and one-time heir apparent said Wednesday that he was reversing course to forge a behind-the-scenes alliance with radical Islamist elements among the Libyan rebels to drive out their more liberal-minded confederates. > > “The liberals will escape or be killed,” the son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, vowed in an hourlong interview that stretched past midnight. “We will do it together,” he added, wearing a newly grown beard and fingering Islamic prayer beads as he reclined on a love seat in a spare office tucked in a nearly deserted downtown hotel. “Libya will look like Saudi Arabia, like Iran. So what?” Well, at least that should quiet any fears the West may have that by helping the rebels we’re helping the Islamists. Or maybe not. > [@](#): > > The leading Islamist whom Mr. Qaddafi identified as his main counterpart in the talks, Ali Sallabi, acknowledged their conversations but dismissed any suggestion of an alliance. He said the Libyan Islamists supported the rebel leaders’ calls for a pluralistic democracy without the Qaddafis. All very through-the-looking-glass. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1682 "2011-08-04T16:44:05Z")
Yeah, I was trying to figure out how to report that. Basically, I decided not to as it’s typical bullshit without substance, much like most, but not all, of the claims of civilian casualties. There are some unhappy tribesmen in Zilten, and that’s part of the issue, as I understand it. They won’t support the rebels, so the rebels can’t just hand the town over to them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1683 "2011-08-04T18:07:20Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > Yeah, I was trying to figure out how to report that. Basically, I decided not to as it’s typical bullshit without substance, much like most, but not all, of the claims of civilian casualties. > > There are some unhappy tribesmen in Zilten, and that’s part of the issue, as I understand it. They won’t support the rebels, so the rebels can’t just hand the town over to them. You’re talking about **tribesmen,** not organized **Islamists,** right? Worst thing that can happen to the rebels at this point is for them to become associated with jihadists, as Gaddafi has tried to associate them from the start (those Israeli Communist American jihadists, that is, they’re the craftiest of all). ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1684 "2011-08-04T20:17:23Z")
If I meant Islamists, I would have said it. These are the local tribesmen in the area around Zilten. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1685 "2011-08-05T03:10:48Z")
[Missile fired at Italian Nato frigate](http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/04/libya.nato.warships/index.html?iref=allsearch). First the government spokesman said they did fire it, then he said they didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1686 "2011-08-05T10:06:54Z")
> **[Subscribe to read | Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5310a10a-bf40-11e0-898c-00144feabdc0)** > > News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication Khamis dead. I repeat Khamis Al-Gadaffi dead. Woo-ee. Someone’s gonna be mad. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1687 "2011-08-05T23:05:05Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > [Subscribe to read](http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5310a10a-bf40-11e0-898c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1U9D680GK) > > Woo-ee. Someone’s gonna be mad. That would be **Commissar**. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2011, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1688 "2011-08-05T23:24:45Z")
Mmm. More importantly, even if he is alive, if he was present, that says the elite forces are in Ziltan. The rebels are slowly advancing against them… and there can’t be that many of the elites. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1689 "2011-08-06T13:11:44Z")
[Rebels take Bir Al-Ghanam in the West.](http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/06/libya.war/) ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1690 "2011-08-06T21:53:12Z")
[**Libya: Military Effort and Political Process ‘A Real Mess,’ Analysts Say**](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/04/libya-military-effort-political-process_n_918250.html) > [@](#): > > \*…Hal Ferguson, a democracy development expert at the International Republican Institute, who has extensive experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, said that in Washington policy circles where the post-conflict Libya is being discussed, the comparison with Iraq – where warring militias complicated an already confusing political landscape immediately after the end of the war – comes up a lot. > > “You can’t help but make the analogy,” he said. "It’s going to be a post-conflict reconstruction situation. It’s clear everyone is trying to learn the lessons of Iraq: above all you need to provide security, electricity, basic services. > > “The question is what is the TNC going to do and what capacity they have to act on it. It’s not about their desire or intelligence – it’s about their political legitimacy and strength,” he added. > > Roberts, of the International Crisis Group, said these problems should have been evident from the start. > > “Even if the TNC had shown itself to be more coherent than it really is, without British and American troops on the ground it has never been likely to take Tripoli – and if it did take Tripoli that way, it would have a legitimacy problem,” he said. > > “This has been very, very obvious from very early on,” Roberts added. "And if the [TNC] didn’t have a legitimacy problem, which it will have, it will have a problem in any case of establishing a functional government. > > “Western governments have been very reckless in engaging themselves to the hilt as they have, politically speaking, with this outfit. And going so far as to recognize it as the only legitimate body, when clearly that is not the view of many Libyans. The idea that this rebellion could just secrete a new functional regime has clearly been wishful thinking.”\* ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1691 "2011-08-06T22:30:25Z")
Wow, fighting a civil war can be difficult, who knew? I especially like all the analysis and discussion you put into it, rather than simply providing a driveby link with a brief quote as some sort of substitute to supporting your own position in a debate. Obviously, you are right, we must intensify our efforts for the air war an/or commit ground troops and/or pull out completely and/or support Quadaffi instead now and/or support Quadaffi instead now and help him massacre those who standard against him and want freedom and/or simply continue on as we have been but wring our hands furiously. Very good point, Red. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1692 "2011-08-06T23:20:36Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > [**Libya: Military Effort and Political Process ‘A Real Mess,’ Analysts Say**](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/04/libya-military-effort-political-process_n_918250.html) Well, post-Gaddafi Libya won’t be divided the way post-Hussein Iraq was divided. Iraq was like Yugoslavia, a multinational state – Kurdish, Sunni, Shi’ite (the faiths are nationalities effectively here) – cobbled together after WWI out of former provinces of the Ottoman Empire. Strong central government was the only thing holding it together, and when the lid was ripped off the pot, all those suppressed ethnic rivalries and religious hatreds boiled over. Libya doesn’t have those kinds of divisions. Almost everybody is a Sunni Muslim, almost everybody is an Arabized Berber. There are some Berber-speaking regions in the South, but they’ve never been restive or secessionist, AFAIK. The only divisions that matter would be tribal – which can get pretty bad, as we’ve seen in Somalia, but I haven’t heard yet of any tribes in Libya aspiring to assert sovereignty over a patch of territory. No, the big political problem facing post-Gaddafi Libya is that the people have no idea what they want instead, never really having had a chance even to discuss such things publicly before this year. Revolutionary A might assume they’re fighting for an Islamic Republic and Revolutionary B might assume they’re fighting for a secular democracy, and each might assume the other’s agreement and get a nasty surprise later. That does not necessarily mean they will join opposing militias and fight it out. But it’s a possibility. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1693 "2011-08-06T23:21:02Z")
It really does appear that Tripoli is being pressed on three sides now. In the next week, anything goes. This could be a high water point the rebels fall back from. Or something could break wide open. … or there could be three mines per square foot all the way around Tripoli for seventy miles. Actually, Brainglutton, what I’m hearing is that the rebels are pretty aware that what they’re fighting for might not be exactly what that guy over there is fighting for, but they’re, by and large, in agreement that it is something that can be dealt with afterwards in some reasonable fashion. Even the Islamists are being pretty aware that way. And yes, there are a number of former AQ members on the side of the rebels. Not much of a surprise. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2011, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1694 "2011-08-06T23:43:50Z")
> [@E-Sabbath](#): > > It really does appear that Tripoli is being pressed on three sides now. In the next week, anything goes. This could be a high water point the rebels fall back from. Or something could break wide open. [Aljazeera says](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/08/201186104459911885.html) the rebels’ next goal is [Az Zawiyah,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Az_Zawiyah) on the coast west of Tripoli. > [@](#): > > Hundreds of rebels fought Muammar Gaddafi’s forces in the battle for Bir Ghanem, 85km from the capital, Tripoli, on Saturday morning. > > “Bir Ghanem is fully under revolutionary control. They are now combing the area for Gaddafi loyalists and landmines,” Abdulrahman, a rebel spokesman said by telephone from Zlitan. > > \ > > “The most important thing for them now is to reach Az Zawiyah,” our correspondent said. > > “They know that they can get support from inside that city, that rebels there are ready to rise up against the Gaddafi regime but they need help from outside.” > > Az Zawiyah was the scene of a major uprising by protesters early on in the conflict, which began in February. The protesters took over the city and drove out Gaddafi’s supporters, but were then brutally crushed in a long, bloody siege. > > In their push towards Az Zawiyah, fighters have started an offensive against government troops near Surman in the Western Mountain area. If they’re right about a surviving and reliable Fifth Column in Az Zawiyah – which this plan seems to depend on – and if they take it, then Tripoli will be surrounded from two sides, at least. But they would still need to cut off Tripoli’s access to Sabha in the South. Which would not be difficult at that point. > [@E-Sabbath](#): > > … or there could be three mines per square foot all the way around Tripoli for seventy miles. Doesn’t matter; if Tripoli is cut off from all lines of supply by land or sea, how long can it hold out? And if Tripoli falls, there’s no need to take Sabha or Sirte – they’ll surrender, or declare for the rebels, because why would they hold out? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2011, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1695 "2011-08-07T08:17:04Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > …Very good point, Red. Thank you. I’m honored. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2011, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1696 "2011-08-08T10:03:46Z")
Reuters substantiates rebel claims to control of Bir al-Ghanam. > **[Reuters | Breaking International News & Views](https://www.reuters.com?edition-redirect=af)** > > Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage. 50 miles south of Tripoli. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2011, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1697 "2011-08-08T13:47:38Z")
[http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-control-town-near-tripoli-reuters-reporter-100343361.html](http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-control-town-near-tripoli-reuters-reporter-100343361.html) More on Bir Al-Ghanam. Pushing towards Tripoli. This could be big. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2011, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1698 "2011-08-08T23:13:47Z")
[The rebel PM, Mahmoud Jibril, just dismissed his whole Cabinet](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/09/world/africa/09libya.html) in an attempt to placate the Younis family. He’s supposed to form a new government and present it to the Transitional Council “in the coming days.” Just when they’re making chancy military advances and need strong leadership. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2011, 9:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1699 "2011-08-09T09:47:37Z")
[![](https://i.imgur.com/FTjlc.jpg) ](https://i.imgur.com/FTjlc.jpg) Helpful map with current status! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2011, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595/1700 "2011-08-09T12:35:57Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > There are some Berber-speaking regions in the South, but they’ve never been restive or secessionist, AFAIK. [Perhaps I spoke too soon.](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/09/world/africa/09berbers.html) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=84) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/libya-too/571595.md?page=86)