Libya too?!

[Askance]

So basically, this is all ceremonial. The UN won’t authorize it, NATO won’t authorize it and the arab militaries are too crappy to do anything well.

And even if it did get through tomorrow, it’s almost certainly too late now. Qaddafi can win the war from here purely with his ground forces, I suspect.

The only vestige of hope I see would be if Tunisia and/or Egypt intervened. How likely that is I have no idea.

[BrainGlutton]

@Askance

And even if it did get through tomorrow, it’s almost certainly too late now. Qaddafi can win the war from here purely with his ground forces, I suspect.

The only vestige of hope I see would be if Tunisia and/or Egypt intervened. How likely that is I have no idea.

I’m sure they’re both sick and tired of having Gaddafi as a neighbor. And they don’t want to have to deal with the even vaster flood of refugees his victory would produce.

[E-Sabbath]

Word is the retreat from Brega was a feint, and the rebels just suckered in and caught a number of Gadaffi vehicles and troops.

Hamed Al Hassi, a spokesperson of the Feb 17th revolution in Libya, told Al Jazeera how rebel forces attacked Gaddafi forces last evening.
“At 8:30 pm, the chief of operations on the front gave orders to siege and surround them (the pro Gaddafi forces).

"We took 20 people hostage and killed 25 people. We also captured and destroyed many of their weaponry and machinery.

"There are now small groups dispersed in the areas West of Brega.” 
Major General, Omar Al Hariri, the military chief of the interim national council told Al Jazeera how his forces were able to take Brega back last evening.

"Today, the armed forces and the revolutionary youth have reorganised and maneuvered the Gaddafi forces, which are weak because they are not fighting for a cause.

"Most of the Gaddafi forces are mercenaries, who are fighting for money. Therefore, they were very weak and the revolutionary forces were able to kill and capture so many of them.

"The revolutionary forces were then able to enter Brega and to push Gaddafi forces to outside of Brega and Aqaila. They are now taking fortified defensive positions in Aqaila."

The moral is to the physical as three to one.

[E-Sabbath]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-blog-march-14
Forgot the link.

[Bibliovore]

I hope it’s true. Things are looking very hard for the rebels at the moment, and if Ajdabiya falls in the same way as Ras-Lanouf and Brega, the next target is Benghazi. And that would mean bloodshed of truly epic proportions.

[BrainGlutton]

@Bibliovore

I hope it’s true. Things are looking very hard for the rebels at the moment, and if Ajdabiya falls in the same way as Ras-Lanouf and Brega, the next target is Benghazi. And that would mean bloodshed of truly epic proportions.

Egypt has probably the best army in Africa. Would the Libyan rebels welcome Egyptian help, or see it as the thin end of a bid for regional hegemony?

[Bibliovore]

I don’t presume to speak for all Libyans of course, but I’m pretty sure they’d welcome support from Egypt in the form of intel, training, medical aid, arms (especially heavy weaponry), and air strikes from the Egyptian Air Force against pro-Gaddaffi targets. Egyptian “boots on the ground” may yet be a contentious issue though. However I’m not holding my breath. Egypt evidently has enough problems of its own to sort out now, and I’d be very surprised indeed if they waded in - even if they’re invited.

[Bibliovore]

And to clarify, any objection to Egyptian troops on Libyan soil wouldn’t be based on any fear of the Egyptians themselves - there’s a lot of mutual goodwill between the insurgents on both sides there - but rather a fierce pride and desire on the part of the Libyans to kick Gadaffi’s ass on their own. They’re convinced they can do it by themselves if given a level playing field - they just need someone to neutralise his air power for them in order to level it.

[Commissar]

@Bibliovore

I hope it’s true. Things are looking very hard for the rebels at the moment, and if Ajdabiya falls in the same way as Ras-Lanouf and Brega, the next target is Benghazi. And that would mean bloodshed of truly epic proportions.

Don’t be naive. Massive bloodshed has been inevitable ever since the rebels decided that seizing power at gunpoint was a brilliant idea. The only question is whose blood will be spilled, rather than whether any blood will be spilled at all. Much as you adore the rebels, there is no way for them to achieve victory without slaughtering the opposition either.

Speaking of which… I’ve noticed from your comments, as well as from those of some others, a certain rosy view of the rebel forces… It is as if some of you assume that the rebels are going up against Gaddafi with Sesame Street sing-alongs and group hugs. Some of you are forgetting that this is a civil war. Yes, it will be bloody. Yes, civilian casualties are inevitable. Yes, both sides will commit atrocities. For instance, I notice that you are all conveniently ignoring the fact that your beloved rebels have, among other things, been cheerily slaughtering black Africans for the crime of being black Africans: http://digitalizednigeria.com/directory/2011/02/28/dozens-feared-killed-in-reprisal-attacks-on-african-migrants-in-libya/ (one of many reports on this theme)

Ultimately, I think that there are rational arguments one can make in support of either side. “My side eats rainbows and shits unicorns” is not one of them. The world is not that black and white, and there is no reason to deify your own side in order to justify your position. While I support Gaddafi, I am the first to admit (as you have seen) that his government has made serious mistakes in the past. You shouldn’t be afraid to do the same for the rebels.

[Dick_Dastardly]

@FinnAgain

Your argument is adorable when it’s a poorly disguised and poorly constructed gotcha.

It’s a “gotcha” question because like the previous one I asked you, if you answer it honestly, you show yourself to be a hypocrite. I’m not going to hold my breath for an answer this time either.

[FinnAgain]

@Commissar

Yes, civilian casualties are inevitable. Yes, both sides will commit atrocities. For instance, I notice that you are all conveniently ignoring the fact that your beloved rebels have, among other things, been cheerily slaughtering black Africans for the crime of being black Africans: http://digitalizednigeria.com/directory/2011/02/28/dozens-feared-killed-in-reprisal-attacks-on-african-migrants-in-libya/

Those reading along will note that people are hardly “ignoring” these reports, as this has been the first mention if it in the thread, IIRC.
Additionally, those reading along with note that Commissar has wildly distorted the actual contents of his own cite. It does not, as claimed, say that blacks are being killed for the “crime” of being black.

What it does say is that:

[

According to Al Jazeera, African migrant workers are targeted because they are suspected of being mercenaries hired by Muammar Gaddafi.

The Arab media organisation reported that angry mobs of anti-government protesters hunt down “black African mercenaries,” quoting witnesses accounts.

](http://digitalizednigeria.com/directory/2011/02/28/dozens-feared-killed-in-reprisal-attacks-on-african-migrants-in-libya/)

Now, while this is certainly a bad thing, witch hunts for suspected mercenaries is hardly the same thing as “slaughtering” black people for the crime of being black.

[FinnAgain]

Sorry for the double post, but the issue deserves a better cite, I figure, since it’s been raised but not accurately.

[

Ms Padoan said reports from those who had managed to escape across the borders, and from relatives, suggest an increase in violent attacks against migrant workers, mainly sub-Saharan Africans who are often accused of being hired mercenaries brought in by Col Gaddafi.

](Libya crisis: Thousands of migrant workers 'trapped' - BBC News)

There seem to be several factors at work. There’s the fact that Quadaffi’s importation of mercenaries to help butcher those who resist his rule has had unintended blowback, and the people are now (unjustly) accusing other Africans of aiding Quadaffi. There also seem to be people who’ve taken advantage of the chaos to rob/rape African migrant workers.

But of course, Quadaffi isn’t blameless in this, either.

A Red Crescent official, Ibrahim Osman, told AP news agency there were reports that pro-Gaddafi forces had blocked thousands of migrant workers from fleeing into Tunisia and had forced many to return to work in Tripoli.

Speaking of the brave Quadaffi and his kindness towards his centrally-managed economy and the people:

[

Huddling in a sand-swept Tunisian transit camp near the border with Libya, laborers said they were often cheated by their Libyan bosses even before they were stripped of their remaining cash on their way out of the country.
[…]
Their chaotic exodus highlights oil-rich Libya’s often problematic role as a regional magnet for migrant workers. In the past, analysts say, Gadhafi often invited or expelled migrants in line with his political need
[…]
Many of the workers said they would never have left home had they known what awaited them. Virtually all said they were robbed by pro-Gadhafi forces en route to the border. Most said they were stiffed at times by their Libyan bosses, and some of the Africans said they had been beaten or detained.
[…]
In December, he was picked up by police for not having a visa and was taken to prison, sleeping on the ground without a mattress and enduring beatings by the guards. He was released 10 weeks later, after friends managed to collect enough money for bribes. When he came out, the fighting had already started.

En route to Tunisia, Libyan security forces took his remaining $1,200.

](http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/africa/view/20110314migrant_workers_fleeing_libya_vow_not_to_return/srvc=news&position=also)

Quadaffi himself hasn’t treated them much better:

Gadhafi, in power since 1969, has in the past used foreign workers for his political objectives.

He has alternately championed pan-Arabism and pan-Africanism, opening and closing Libya to workers from those areas in line with Libya’s orientation at the time. Different groups of workers could suddenly find themselves targeted for deportation, such as thousands of Sudanese expelled in the mid-1990s.

[tomndebb]

@Dick_Dastardly

It’s a “gotcha” question because like the previous one I asked you, if you answer it honestly, you show yourself to be a hypocrite. I’m not going to hold my breath for an answer this time either.

You can hold your breath or breathe deeply, but continuing your sniping about Israel with one-liners every day or so is not appropriate.

Just drop it.

[ /moderating ]

[FinnAgain]

Things seem increasingly dire. Benghazi itself may fall within a short time and is close to being encircled by heavy armor and artillery. We still haven’t set up a no-fly zone although the SC is discussing it, and apparently we aren’t providing any appreciable weaponry to the rebels. It may hinge on whether or not we can set up a no-fly zone and, if so, when. If we can do that and kit out the rebels with anti-tank missiles, we might just have a chance at snatching victory out of the jaws of defeat, but it’s looking unlikely.

If there’s a ‘silver lining’, I guess that America’s posture won’t have been too heavily damaged with Quadaffi if he wins but… that’s not a very encouraging consolation prize if he manages to maintain his regime. Not good stuff, unfortunately.

[Bibliovore]

Al-Jazeera reports that rebels commanding fighter jets have destroyed two of Gaddafi’s warships off the northeast coast of Ajdabiya. The opposition also claimed to have hit a third naval ship in the air attack.

A number of army generals and soldiers, particularly in the Libyan Air Force, have defected to join the rebels and have an arsenal of weapons and fighter jets at their disposal.

Surprise!

[BrainGlutton]

Gaddafi still has loyalists for some reason . . . Does anyone stick with him for patriotic rather than personal reasons, I wonder? Does anyone in Libya really believe the ideology expressed in his Green Book? Or admire the social order under his rule?

[BrainGlutton]

@Bibliovore

Al-Jazeera reports that rebels commanding fighter jets have destroyed two of Gaddafi’s warships off the northeast coast of Ajdabiya. The opposition also claimed to have hit a third naval ship in the air attack.

A number of army generals and soldiers, particularly in the Libyan Air Force, have defected to join the rebels and have an arsenal of weapons and fighter jets at their disposal.

Surprise!

Huzzah for the Libyan People’s Army!

Does this make the no-fly zone more or less urgent?

[Peremensoe]

The no-fly zone is as urgently needed as ever.

@Mitch Potter / Toronto Star

For days, as the poorly armed rebel fighters retreated hundreds of kilometres in the face of Gadhafi’s overwhelming air- and groundfire, Libyans in Benghazi insisted they would fight to the death rather than cede their new-found freedom to Gadhafi.

The fate of these people, many thousands of whom have gone public, sharing for the first time the deprivations of 42 years of life under Gadhafi, now is at the mercy of a regime that routinely describes them as “rats and vermin.”

Some activists wept openly Tuesday at the waterfront courthouse that has served as headquarters of the homegrown revolution. Others described in bitter terms the disappointment of their unanswered pleas for foreign intervention.

[Peremensoe]

The rebel “air force” involved reportedly consists of one MiG 23 and one helicopter.

[Dick_Dastardly]

@tomndebb

You can hold your breath or breathe deeply, but continuing your sniping about Israel with one-liners every day or so is not appropriate.

Just drop it.

[ /moderating ]

I’m not criticising Israel here at all, you’re entirely missing the point I’m making.