Thanks. Staying inside is by far the wisest thing to do, but they’ll still have to go outside to buy food and water. Latest reports are that people in Tripoli are queuing 4-5 hours for bread and 6-7 hours for petrol, while both were amply available in Benghazi.
The mood in the east was initially a heady mix of optimism, disbelief and joy, coupled with anger and defiance. After the recent heavy fighting and setbacks, however, the mood is far more pragmatic. The people have come to realise that even air strikes are not enough to win the conflict on their own, and that the unbounded motivation of the rebel fighters absolutely has to be tempered with training, discipline and above all heavier weapons. The defiance is still very much there and proper training has begun, but the people have now come to accept that this will be a long and bloody fight and they are prepared to face that, come hell or high water. There is absolutely no way that they will ever capitulate or ever accept any political “solution” that’s predicated on Gaddaffi or his family remaining in power.
Oh, and the rebels have begun to get far more organised, with defected ex-army troops being organised together into a more professional fighting force. Additionally, they have started vetting which volunteers will be allowed to go and fight on the front line, whereas it was previously pretty much a case of “grab a gun, fill up your truck and go - the enemy’s thataway…”. In Ajdabiya, for example, the heaviest fighting was done by the ex-army troops at the front, and the volunteer militia were kept at the rear and only allowed to fight in “cleanup operations” once the bulk of Gadaffi’s forces were pushed back out of the city.
Bibliovore, best wishes to your family in Libya, and special thoughts for those in Tripoli.
I wonder if you can give your perspective on the ‘crimes against humanity’ charge with which the UNSC justified the intervention. There’s been a lot of dismissive comments, on the Dope and in various political commentary, about both Gaddaffi’s intention to commit large scale reprisals, and their likely scale and impact to civilian populations. Is there a real sense inside Libya that whole populations are, or were, or will be in direct danger of indiscriminate punitive actions from the regular army? Mass murder?
A successful war effort depends on the support of a thriving civilian economy. How long can Gaddafi keep his troops paid and supplied under these conditions, I wonder?
Gadaffi has already committed crimes against humanity - that’s been verfied and witnessed and is beyond question. He’s already used 14.5mm anti-aircraft guns against civilians, and the results will stay with me for the rest of my life. There is absolutely no doubt that were Gaddaffi ever to capture Benghazi, for example, the result would be wholesale mass-murder of the civilan population. This has already happened in Zawiyah and is happening in Misrata right now, with unarmed civilans including children being deliberately shot by snipers and residential areas targeted by artillery, mortar fire and tanks. After Gaddaffi’s troops took Zawiyah, they collected all of the bodies of the murdered civilians off the streets and even dug them out of their fresh graves in an effort to clean up the area before the western press were allowed to enter. So the short answer to your question is yes - the threat of massacre is very real and has in fact already happened on multiple occasions.
Another question, Bibliovore: Apparently there are significant numbers of Libyans, not on Gaddafi’s payroll, who still support him. But how many? And who are they, and why do they support him? Personal loyalty, tribal loyalty, force of lifelong habit, preference for the Devil they know over the Devil they don’t, sincere belief in his “Green” ideology, or what?
He can’t sell any oil, but he does have a huge reserve of gold (some like 16 billion dollars’ worth according to a recent article in the Independent). Gold is hard to turn into ready cash, and he won’t get anything near full market price for it under the current circumstances, but it is another source of emergency revenue with which he can continue to hire mercenaries.
I’d say a mix of all of the above, plus the simple but very powerful motivation of fear. I don’t know how many there are, but the feeling, even among the international press, is that many of the protests and rallies are staged for the media’s benefit, with many “supporters” forced there under threat of reprisal against their families. Remember, Tripoli is under complete lockdown - a world in isolation. Any behaviour deemed suspicious or simply not supportive enough of the regime - is met with brutal reprisals. People will be only too willing to wave the green flag and cheer their support for Gaddaffi if the alternative is death or torture for either themselves or their loved ones.
It happened before I left for Libya, and the Western media correspondents that were allowed to enter the city reported evidence that the gravesites had been desecrated. I’m afraid I can’t google up a cite for you just now, but will search for one. It should be easy to find.
Even belief in “Green” ideology? What is that, anyway? I mean, as the ordinary Libyan understands it. (I’m not suggesting you or I or anyone should try to wade through Gaddafi’s book, though I understand it’s not very long.)
I just want to say that this has been known to the outside world, it has not been overlooked. There is little I can do to help, but at least I can keep reporting from where I get information.
BG: I’m pretty sure I mentioned it just a few days ago, and at the time it happened as well, in this thread.
For some of them, yes, no doubt. But as I really don’t understand his crackpot theories myself, I really can’t explain them or explain why others believe them. Some Libyans obviously feel that he’s the best thing that’s ever happened to the country. They believe every word that’s come out of his mouth, including his assertions that the rebels are nothing more than isolated groups of armed troublemakers funded and spurred by Al Qaida. but that attitude really isn’t surprising given that the population has been force-fed his propaganda for 42 years.
I don’t get why he would blame AlQ. Are the Sunni of Libya uniformly hostile to the wahhabist leanings of AlQ? Wouldn’t it make more sense for him to blame Shia Iran?
Thank you, but don’t sell yourself short. You *can *help. If not by going there yourself, then by donating to the Red Cross or Red Crescent. Both of them are doing great work in providing field hospitals and essential medical aid to those most in need there.
And on a related note, I’ve just seen a report on Sky News that Gaddaffi’s regime planned to put down protests by killing civilians even before the uprising began. That’s the belief of the International Criminal Court, who have evidence that the shooting of civilians was a pre-determined plan.
My WAG is that by blaming Al Qaida, he was hoping to avoid any intervention by the West. He really couldn’t give a shit what his own people think, as his attitude is very much one of “they’ll believe what i tell them to believe.”
Another question for Bibliovore: What do you make of the characterization of “crusaders” being applied to those fighting to protect civilians in Libya?
Yeah, that’s a term al-Qaeda would use, and has. But Gaddafi’s blaming this on al-Qaeda. And the American Communists. And the Zionists must be in there somewhere . . . LSD in the Nescafe, classic Jew trick, that is . . .
You know, in these circumstances it would be painfully easy for Gaddafi to plant spies and saboteurs and sleeper agents in the rebel army. If he has any he can rely on not to turn for real once they’ve gone over.
