True, it’s fungible, but I was under the impression that a lot of the physical oil from Libya goes to Europe. Makes sense since it’s so close, logistics wise.
-XT
Mostly European countries.
Yet oddly, I expect our fuel prices to rise faster at the pump then theirs. MSNBC says that Britain is their largest customer. Though I doubt that gives them any leverage.
I am just taking the Navy at their word - “A Global Force For Good” - still wondering exactly when or how the US became the world’s military, but hey, if we are, then we better act like it.
In general, I despise military intervention - except for humanitarian crises, and think this qualifies. I don’t think we send the Marines back to Tripoli, but clearing the skies would be good. Though we should only do so under a UN mandate, which I hope they would authorize. And I agree we should be standing by to offer humanitarian aid.
[QUOTE=Agnostic Pagan]
Yet oddly, I expect our fuel prices to rise faster at the pump then theirs. MSNBC says that Britain is their largest customer. Though I doubt that gives them any leverage.
[/QUOTE]
What do you base this on though? IIRC, the price of refined fuel is expected to jump in Europe as well as America. Since oil is a commodity that is traded internationally, Europeans pay the same for oil that we do. The only slack would perhaps be transport and refinement.
BTW, your other quote was from someone else, not me. Just saying you should attribute it if it’s from a different poster.
-XT
It appears Libyan airspace is now closed, but this seems to mean closed by Libya - so planes cannot evacuate foreign nationals while presumably the Air Force can continue to do as they please to civilians.
Well, if the U.S. is looking for a potential casus belli, they’ve just been handed one. They try to evacuate diplomats and citizens, the Libyans take a shot at a helicopter, the U.S. destroys the Libyan airforce.
It’s true European end-user petrol prices jump around less than American, on a short term basis, but that’s simply a matter of market structure (relatively less spot) and high taxation (large % of end user price is not for the primary product).
I think it would be in our best interest to stay way the hell out of it, unless we are forced to act. I was going to say it would be better if the Europeans acted in this instance, but their own track record in North Africa is not, um, all that great…so probably wouldn’t be wise for them to intervene either. Unless forced too.
If the Libyans are in fact attacking their population directly it’s a matter that should be brought before the UN…who will probably do nothing until it’s all over anyway. When America acts on it’s own, however, it’s generally perceived as a Bad Think™, not just in the country affected (and certainly Libyans don’t consider us a ‘friend’) but world wide.
-XT
Last thing Libya needs is American or UK intervention in this.
Look BBC just carried a note saying some of the officer corp is calling for rebellion against Gaddafi.
Having Americans “wipe out” the air force is likely only to cause the military to say “wait he was right, they are out to invade us.”
ETA:
European track record is not great as compared to who?
You’re not familiar with the term “proportionate response” are you?
[QUOTE=wmfellows]
It’s true European end-user petrol prices jump around less than American, on a short term basis, but that’s simply a matter of market structure (relatively less spot) and high taxation (large % of end user price is not for the primary product).
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, forgot to mention the higher taxes as another flex in the system. You are right…we’ll have more short term spikes in price because of this, but that’s because we pay a lot less than you guys do for refined fuels.
Definitely. We don’t want to mess with what’s going on at all if we can possibly avoid it. And you guys don’t want to mess with it either for the same reasons. Hard as it may be on the Libyans, they need to work this all out on their own, and if they want our help after the smoke clears then we should be sending in the hospital ships and supplies and whatever humanitarian assistance we can do for them.
ETA: Compared to anyone else in that region. I don’t think the Libyans are really happy with ANYONE from The West, in general. If the UK or France decided to stick their military’s nose into what’s going on it would be just about as unpopular with the average Libyans as if the US did…and Quadafi would get just about as much traction with his reference to foreign plots.
-XT
I’ve had people try to explain it to me.
Anyway, I was noting a possibility, not making a suggestion.
Financial Times says that western cos are shutting down Libyan production. Markets are going to go insane tomorrow AM.
Just based on previous experience. The oil companies seem to pass the costs on to consumer much faster here than elsewhere, and never miss a chance to do so.
[QUOTE=xtisme]
BTW, your other quote was from someone else, not me. Just saying you should attribute it if it’s from a different poster.
-XT
[/QUOTE]
Oops. I usually do. If a mod could fix that, that would be great.
As far as Libyan reaction to foreign intervention, I have no idea how they would react. The Libyan government, i.e. Gaddafi and sons, certainly have used that as a bogeyman since day one, at Reagan’s air strike did not help. But that was 25 years ago, and a significant portion of the population is younger than that.
I have heard of some attacks on foreign workers, but I don’t know if that is propaganda or because they were working for the government. But the protesters/rebels also opened up the border very quickly to allow foreign journalists come in. I am certain they are asking for medical supplies as well.
CNN just reported that Gaddafi issued a statement over their state TV that he was still in the country and has not fled.
Another very disturbing link. Not safe for work, not safe for younger or more sensitive viewers, very graphic. Reported to be the bodies of soldiers who were burned alive when they refused to open fire on civilians. Not confirmed, but something really horrible happened to these people:
h t t p : / / news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/21/video-purportedly-shows-slain-libyan-soldiers-who-refused-orders/?hpt=T1
Scroll down past text to embedded video.
The BBC shows ABC World news late at night for half an hour. Is this typical?
Whatever about news feeds, listen to this:
Whoever you are lady, whoever you are, bless you.
The URL contained a malformed video ID.
Whoah!
Scary, huh?
Seems like all the hungry, trodden-upon and bereft have decided “enough is enough”, and it’s all multiplying.
Am I scare-mongering?
I don’t want to be, but it sure seems like Libya took notes.
Q
No, this is great.