Gaddafi claims alliance with Islamists.
Well, at least that should quiet any fears the West may have that by helping the rebels we’re helping the Islamists.
Or maybe not.
All very through-the-looking-glass.
Yeah, I was trying to figure out how to report that. Basically, I decided not to as it’s typical bullshit without substance, much like most, but not all, of the claims of civilian casualties.
There are some unhappy tribesmen in Zilten, and that’s part of the issue, as I understand it. They won’t support the rebels, so the rebels can’t just hand the town over to them.
You’re talking about tribesmen, not organized Islamists, right? Worst thing that can happen to the rebels at this point is for them to become associated with jihadists, as Gaddafi has tried to associate them from the start (those Israeli Communist American jihadists, that is, they’re the craftiest of all).
If I meant Islamists, I would have said it. These are the local tribesmen in the area around Zilten.
Missile fired at Italian Nato frigate. First the government spokesman said they did fire it, then he said they didn’t.
Khamis dead. I repeat Khamis Al-Gadaffi dead. Woo-ee. Someone’s gonna be mad.
That would be Commissar.
Mmm. More importantly, even if he is alive, if he was present, that says the elite forces are in Ziltan. The rebels are slowly advancing against them… and there can’t be that many of the elites.
Wow, fighting a civil war can be difficult, who knew?
I especially like all the analysis and discussion you put into it, rather than simply providing a driveby link with a brief quote as some sort of substitute to supporting your own position in a debate. Obviously, you are right, we must intensify our efforts for the air war an/or commit ground troops and/or pull out completely and/or support Quadaffi instead now and/or support Quadaffi instead now and help him massacre those who standard against him and want freedom and/or simply continue on as we have been but wring our hands furiously.
Very good point, Red.
Well, post-Gaddafi Libya won’t be divided the way post-Hussein Iraq was divided. Iraq was like Yugoslavia, a multinational state – Kurdish, Sunni, Shi’ite (the faiths are nationalities effectively here) – cobbled together after WWI out of former provinces of the Ottoman Empire. Strong central government was the only thing holding it together, and when the lid was ripped off the pot, all those suppressed ethnic rivalries and religious hatreds boiled over.
Libya doesn’t have those kinds of divisions. Almost everybody is a Sunni Muslim, almost everybody is an Arabized Berber. There are some Berber-speaking regions in the South, but they’ve never been restive or secessionist, AFAIK. The only divisions that matter would be tribal – which can get pretty bad, as we’ve seen in Somalia, but I haven’t heard yet of any tribes in Libya aspiring to assert sovereignty over a patch of territory.
No, the big political problem facing post-Gaddafi Libya is that the people have no idea what they want instead, never really having had a chance even to discuss such things publicly before this year. Revolutionary A might assume they’re fighting for an Islamic Republic and Revolutionary B might assume they’re fighting for a secular democracy, and each might assume the other’s agreement and get a nasty surprise later. That does not necessarily mean they will join opposing militias and fight it out. But it’s a possibility.
It really does appear that Tripoli is being pressed on three sides now. In the next week, anything goes. This could be a high water point the rebels fall back from. Or something could break wide open.
… or there could be three mines per square foot all the way around Tripoli for seventy miles.
Actually, Brainglutton, what I’m hearing is that the rebels are pretty aware that what they’re fighting for might not be exactly what that guy over there is fighting for, but they’re, by and large, in agreement that it is something that can be dealt with afterwards in some reasonable fashion. Even the Islamists are being pretty aware that way.
And yes, there are a number of former AQ members on the side of the rebels. Not much of a surprise.
Aljazeera says the rebels’ next goal is Az Zawiyah, on the coast west of Tripoli.
If they’re right about a surviving and reliable Fifth Column in Az Zawiyah – which this plan seems to depend on – and if they take it, then Tripoli will be surrounded from two sides, at least. But they would still need to cut off Tripoli’s access to Sabha in the South. Which would not be difficult at that point.
Doesn’t matter; if Tripoli is cut off from all lines of supply by land or sea, how long can it hold out? And if Tripoli falls, there’s no need to take Sabha or Sirte – they’ll surrender, or declare for the rebels, because why would they hold out?
Thank you. I’m honored.
Reuters substantiates rebel claims to control of Bir al-Ghanam.
50 miles south of Tripoli.
http://news.yahoo.com/rebels-control-town-near-tripoli-reuters-reporter-100343361.html
More on Bir Al-Ghanam. Pushing towards Tripoli. This could be big.
The rebel PM, Mahmoud Jibril, just dismissed his whole Cabinet in an attempt to placate the Younis family. He’s supposed to form a new government and present it to the Transitional Council “in the coming days.” Just when they’re making chancy military advances and need strong leadership.
Helpful map with current status!