# Lies, damned lies, and phony statistics? Gun control again. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 15, 2013, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280 "2013-08-15T04:10:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2013, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/21 "2013-08-19T01:27:07Z")
Okay, well then, one other thing about those claims about the UK. The trajectory of their crime rates is dramatically downward. > **[How Britain is becoming a SAFER place to live: Rate of murders and violent...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2313942/UK-Peace-Index-Rate-murders-violent-crime-falling-faster-Western-Europe.html)** > > The UK has experienced a 'substantial and sustained' fall in offences ranging from drunken thuggery to murder since 2003, the report suggests. > [@](#): > > Violent crime in Britain has fallen by a quarter in the past decade, according to a study. > > The UK has experienced a ‘substantial and sustained’ fall in offences ranging from drunken thuggery to murder since 2003, the report suggests. > > And official statistics show violent crime is now at its lowest level for 30 years. Homicide has fallen by 50% in the past decade as well. So, if the absence of firearms is somehow causal in the violent crime rate in the UK, why are crime rates there going down so sharply? ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/22 "2013-08-27T14:55:43Z")
Can’t give a link to this. The former Director of Mental Health for the State of Tennessee told me that a firearm in the home is more likely to be used against someone within the home than it is an intruder. ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/23 "2013-08-27T15:00:02Z")
Also, if you are held up with someone with a gun, there are certainly other ways to handle the problem. Calming things down is the first step. I take great pride in getting the robber who held me up to give me my favorite purse back. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2013, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/24 "2013-08-28T09:28:32Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > You said rather specifically - And yet here we have a fist fight in a pub, with no mention either of weapons or hospitalization, that was apparently included in the statistics. > > _:shrugs:_ > > Regards, > Shodan No - the fist fight in the pub is categorised as simple assault, not aggravated assault. So it doesn’t form part of the FBI statistics on violent crime that are used as the basis for US/UK comparisons. As AdamF said. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2013, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/25 "2013-08-28T09:56:30Z")
In fact, I did this exercise a while back: comparing US and UK violent crime on the basis of the only the US definition of violent crime. **The UK rate is half that of the US**. > [@Sam Harris on a world without guns](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sam-harris-on-a-world-without-guns/648808/71): > > The FBI definition of violent crime is: > > [ > > > [@Originally Posted by FBI](#): > > > > In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. > > ]([http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/violent-crime](http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/violent-crime)) > > The Home Office defintion is considerably looser: > [ > > > [@Originally Posted by Home Office](#): > > > > Violent crime contains a wide range of offences, from minor assaults such as pushing and shoving that result in no physical harm through to serious incidents of wounding and murder. Around a half of violent incidents identified by both BCS and police statistics involve no injury to the victim. > > ]([http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb1011/hosb1011?view=Binary](http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb1011/hosb1011?view=Binary)) > > If you only look at the UK’s incidence of murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery and aggravated assault (GBH in UK-crime-speak) you get a comparable violent crime rate of **202 per 100K.** \* Pretty much half of the US rate\*\* for the same offenses.\*\* > > (Source: Table 1 of the [Home Office stats](http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb0812/hosb0812?view=Binary)). > > \*Murder and attempted murder: 1161; GBH with intent: 19,489; GBH without intent 15,112; All rape: 15892; All robbery: 76,189. Total: 127843 violent crimes. UK Pop = 62.3M. Please check my working. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/26 "2013-08-29T00:33:03Z")
You might want to include this in your figuring: [Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder And Suicide?](http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMauseronline.pdf) ---
**Author:** ![sisu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@sisu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sisu)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/27 "2013-08-29T02:33:05Z")
There has not been a mass shooting in Australia since the tougher gun laws were put in place in 1996. Gun ownership in Australia has always been about utilitarian uses, these include sport shooting, farmers and to some extant target shooting. It has never had a right to bare arms, the idea is ridiculous to most Australians. The results of the 1996 ban are hard to argue with. According to a Harvard University study, 13 gun massacres (in which four or more people died) occurred in the 18 years before the law was enacted. In the 17 years since there has been none. Zero, yes ZERO. I would also point out that since 1997 your risk of being a victim of gun violence has been halved. Not a bad outcome IMO. So you don’t think that we are all peace loving hippies, 8% of Australian homes own a gun, OK you guys are a lot higher at about 32% but we still have guns in our society they are just monitored and regulated a lot tougher, this includes type, storage etc as well. The issue is not as black and white as guns though, well nothing is black and white outside politics. The issues of social division, race relations, drug economy, gangs etc are much worse in the USA than here. Would they be better if guns were not as freely available? Maybe but at least you would know that the young gang banger walking down the street would probably not be carrying a gun. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/28 "2013-08-29T02:44:36Z")
> [@sisu](#): > > There has not been a mass shooting in Australia since the tougher gun laws were put in place in 1996. This is, frankly, a silly point. It’s like me claiming that a meteor hasn’t struck my house since I built my tin-foil meteor repeller. While technically correct, it tells us nothing of value since meteor strikes on my house and mass shootings in Australia both have always been exceedingly rare events. ---
**Author:** ![sisu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@sisu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sisu)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/29 "2013-08-29T03:11:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This is, frankly, a silly point. It’s like me claiming that a meteor hasn’t struck my house since I built my tin-foil meteor repeller. While technically correct, it tells us nothing of value since meteor strikes on my house and mass shootings in Australia both have always been exceedingly rare events. Not really there were 13 mass shootings in the 18 years before the new laws and none since. So yes there were rare but to go from 13 in 18 years to zero in 17 seems a bit more than a coincidence? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/30 "2013-08-29T03:53:08Z")
> [@sisu](#): > > zero in 17 I thought there was a multiple-victim shooting in the last 17 years … some college spat or something like that. Am I mis-remembering? ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/31 "2013-08-29T04:06:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You might want to include this in your figuring: > > _Would Banning Firearms Reduce Murder And Suicide?_ From the introduction: > [@](#): > > Since at least 1965, the false assertion that the United States has > the industrialized world’s highest murder rate has been an artifact > of politically motivated Soviet minimization designed to hide the > true homicide rates. There you go Comrade **sisu** , you are incontravertably a decrepit propogandist stooge with a Cold War mindset . Your weenie-liberal arguments have been shot down by inviolable social-political constructs that were cast in stone in the 1960s. Ya mug galah. 😛 [d&r] ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/32 "2013-08-29T04:09:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I thought there was a multiple-victim shooting in the last 17 years … some college spat or something like that. Am I mis-remembering? Monash University shooting in 2002 as well as Melbourne Central Business District shooting. Also worth mentioning: since 1996, in Australia, 56 people died in 3 deliberately set fires. In the 18 years before 1996 I can’t find any such incidents. Could it be mass murderers switched tactics? ---
**Author:** ![Cazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cazzle/32/75_2.png) [@Cazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cazzle)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/33 "2013-08-29T04:28:16Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Monash University shooting in 2002 as well as Melbourne Central Business District shooting. > > Also worth mentioning: since 1996, in Australia, 56 people died in 3 deliberately set fires. In the 18 years before 1996 I can’t find any such incidents. Could it be mass murderers switched tactics? The gun laws were tweaked again after the Monash incident. Without doing any serious research, the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983 that killed 75 people are one example of pre-1996 arson. I find the suggestion that frustrated would-be mass murderers are turning to arson because assault weapons are too hard to come by unlikely. These seem like vastly different ways to kill. ---
**Author:** ![sisu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@sisu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sisu)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/34 "2013-08-29T04:59:58Z")
> [@Eliahna](#): > > The gun laws were tweaked again after the Monash incident. > > Without doing any serious research, the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983 that killed 75 people are one example of pre-1996 arson. I find the suggestion that frustrated would-be mass murderers are turning to arson because assault weapons are too hard to come by unlikely. These seem like vastly different ways to kill. Mass murder as counted by FBI etc is 4+ killings. Monash was 2. The fire deaths were not done by mass murderers in the classic sense. Lack of back burning, poorly maintained infrastructure and thrill seeking arsonists combined with more people living in the bush contributed to the toll. The arsonists were generally people wanting to light a fire and then come in as the hero as a fire fighter. ---
**Author:** ![sisu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@sisu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sisu)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/35 "2013-08-29T05:05:32Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > From the introduction: > There you go Comrade **sisu** , you are incontravertably a decrepit propogandist stooge with a Cold War mindset . Your weenie-liberal arguments have been shot down by inviolable social-political constructs that were cast in stone in the 1960s. > > Ya mug galah. > 😛 [d&r] Careful we know where you live…and this liberal has a gun or two.😃 All legal, registered, stored correctly as per our laws. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/36 "2013-08-29T05:06:14Z")
> [@sisu](#): > > The fire deaths were not done by mass murderers in the classic sense. Lack of back burning, poorly maintained infrastructure and thrill seeking arsonists combined with more people living in the bush contributed to the toll. > > The arsonists were generally people wanting to light a fire and then come in as the hero as a fire fighter. Not bush fires. Childers Palace fire and Quakers Hill nursing home fire. ---
**Author:** ![sisu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@sisu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sisu)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/37 "2013-08-29T07:05:09Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Not bush fires. Childers Palace fire and Quakers Hill nursing home fire. Point taken, but I would still argue that an arsonist is a very different beast to a gunman. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/38 "2013-08-29T15:33:50Z")
> [@sisu](#): > > Point taken, but I would still argue that an arsonist is a very different beast to a gunman. But see, if it’s a coincidence that those happened in the 17 years after 1996 and there were none in the 18 years before 1996, then why is it not a coincidence that there were mass shootings before and not after during the same periods? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/39 "2013-08-29T16:41:40Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > But see, if it’s a coincidence that those happened in the 17 years after 1996 and there were none in the 18 years before 1996, then why is it not a coincidence that there were mass shootings before and not after during the same periods? Excellent point. I think it’s strong evidence that mass murderers who would have preferred to use a firearm have made the, frankly obvious, transition to arson instead. Oh, except for the Downunder Hostel fire in 1989. And the Ocean View Lodge fire in 1993. And the City Heart hostel fire in 1996. And the Ghost Train Ride fire in Luna Park in 1979. It isn’t clear whether there was arson involved in the Rembrandt Hotel fire in 1981, or the Pacific Nursing Home fire in 1981, or the Palm Grove Hostel fire in 1991. But, apart from a lack of any sort of sense that you actually checked whether or not what you were saying was true in any sense of the word true, you still have an excellent point. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280/40 "2013-08-29T17:06:08Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Excellent point. I think it’s strong evidence that mass murderers who would have preferred to use a firearm have made the, frankly obvious, transition to arson instead. > > Oh, except for the Downunder Hostel fire in 1989. And the Ocean View Lodge fire in 1993. And the City Heart hostel fire in 1996. And the Ghost Train Ride fire in Luna Park in 1979. It isn’t clear whether there was arson involved in the Rembrandt Hotel fire in 1981, or the Pacific Nursing Home fire in 1981, or the Palm Grove Hostel fire in 1991. > > But, apart from a lack of any sort of sense that you actually checked whether or not what you were saying was true in any sense of the word true, you still have an excellent point. I am not Australian, so I wouldn’t know. I looked at [List of massacres in Australia - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_mass_murders) - none of those are listed there. From cursory googling, that’s probably because the Downunder Hostel fire was not certain to be arson. Ocean View Lodge fire didn’t have any fatalities. Ghost Train ride fire was not determined to be arson. etc. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lies-damned-lies-and-phony-statistics-gun-control-again/666280.md?page=3)