Likelihood and implications of giving up the Euro?

Well, you say it yourself, a little. But I might have been wrong - the US dollar no longer seems undervalued, at least not against the euro, though it has been for a long time:

As the link above (google - I feel lucky) shows, people are messing about with actual performance anyway. The point is, and I have made it before, that countries like Italy would be doing badly independently of whether they had a separate currency. And noone has responded to my argument about relative performance of different US states either.

It’s a transition period, but Italy is so horribly messed up as a country politically that it doesn’t make for a proper argument. Italy is a special case - it’s a very corrupt ridden society. But I don’t think they’re going to get away with it now. The defense against outside takeovers isn’t so much government policy as it thrives on individual corruption - as in this case, close friends helping each other out. It happens in other countries too, sure, but less so on the state level; and on the other side of the scale there are the Air France and KLM mergers. It’s not like US States are 100% integrated either - neither New York or California are much like Texas in that respect.

Your cycle theory is fine, understood, old, and valid within the separate currency debate. But it doesn’t say anything about how a big country with many states like the U.S. solves this in terms of different economic regions. But it does exist, in the form of consumer price inflation and wage fluctuation, unemployment and so on. Instead of having a valued currency difference, you deal with local costs of living, wages and taxes. It’s a valid alternative, and works with your cycle theory in the same way as currency valuatoin.

That’s just not true. They’re cycles have run differently. The U.K. has been doing really, really badly for a long, long time, and as such became a cheap place (except London) with a lot of poverty and poor employee protection. Sweden has been doing badly also in a period where other economies were still booming. The Netherlands is in the negative part of its cycle - it was doing extremely well, somewhat overheated its economy when labor markets got so tight that wages shot upwards, and is now paying the price for not having been able to slow down its economy (something unnatural for your version of the cycle theory, but if Dutch companies hadn’t gone insane and simply refused to raise wages too substantially, like for instance IT companies, they’d not have crashed nearly as badly). It also bears pointing out that recessions notwithstanding, a negative growth means less if your standard of living and wealth remains some of the highest in the world and still much higher than before the economic boom.

Don’t you tell me about bicycles, dude. :wink: There is nothing old-fashioned about them - they are increasingly useful and still developing quickly. There is also nothing old-fashioned about economic cycles, although they are certainly older than bicycles. But currency’s part in economic cycles, now there is something old-fashioned. Surely you remember why and when people just started buying dollars in certain unstable currency regions? Certain regions outside of the U.S. and politically completely unrelated effectively run on the dollar. What if everybody in the whole world did just that?

Utopianists?? Utopianists don’t point to problems. They believe in dream worlds. Like the one where people think that a currency is somehow the key to economic cycles. I believe they are indicators of economic cyclesas much as they are tools to fool economic cycles. But they are not essential to the existence of economic cycles, or even particularly conducive to them.

It’s that simple, huh?

Sounds more like a kind of stagnation. But it’s also false. The Euro is rapidly becoming a backup to the dollar.

None of your arguments make any sense, so far.

(This has to be the most slow-motion thread I’ve ever been in, but it probably has to do with the time difference.)
That Everbank CD is very interesting. Great idea.
Anyway, I wouldn’t argue, at this point, with the proposition that the euro is overvalued vs the dollar. I’m certainly not thinking about putting my money in euros, as you can see.
The assertion that Italy would be doing poorly if it had a separate currency is a fact-free one with no evidence behind it. See this PDF on Italian GDP with a very nice graph that shows the cyclicality of the Italian GDP dropping suddenly after 2000 (the blue line, representing year-over-year changes, flatlined after 2000), which is EXACTLY the behavior I would expect out of an economy being suppressed artificially by a currency that’s out of whack. Notice that Italy was doing just fine prior to 2000.
If the fact that the Italian economy, not to mention the German economy, and the French economy, are all doing exactly what I would have thought they would do given a persistently out-of-whack currency makes no sense to you, I can’t help you. I will simply say that the ability to form good predictions from a theory is one of the proofs of the power of a theory. Seems to me that I’ve been able to form good predictions. Of course, I am a biased source on that subject.
Further, the assertion that the euro is rapidly becoming a backup to the dollar is only an assertion so far; give me some evidence. According to the latest report from Reuters on world forex reserves:

Doesn’t sound like the euro is gaining in popularity any, despite the Chinese announcement involving moving to a basket of currencies and the Russians making noises about putting more of their reserves in euros.
You’d be more than welcome to become the world reserve currency if you want, though. Feel free. Really.

You keep saying this, but the UK has been doing fine for at least ten year. Since about the time it was forced out of the ERM in 1992, funnily enough. Tony Blair inherited an economy in good health.

Yes, the UK has been doing fine the last 10 years, in the sense that the economy has gone up. But for that to happen, they got so low that at times you could have nearly ranked the UK a 2nd world country. In that context, it was a relatively cheap place to invest in, and things have been moving towards the European average ever since. Have they truly caught up with other European nations though? Let’s look at minimum wages and percentages living under the poverty line, health services provided, insurance coverage, and we’ll see that the U.K. still resembles the U.S. in a lot of those areas. Tony has been trying to do some good there, but there’s been a lot to catch up on.

Now I’m not saying that the other European countries have it all right - far from it, but claims about the importance of not having the euro for the U.K.s well-being are easily refuted. I only need to remind you to look to the Island on your left.

In the meantime, I think Germany is starting to show signs of economic recovery. France, I don’t know, not so confident there. The politics there are starting to look as bad as in Italy in terms of corruption.

The comments about Italy though don’t mean a thing. There is no country as unreliable for economic figures as Italy, with each government lying about its economic success and an incredible part of the economy taking part on an enormous black market. More and more of that is becoming transparent as the EU is watching and the 2000 mark you noticed may as well stem partly from more accurate numbers becoming available under closer scrutiny. Or tons of other reasons - Italy is and remains a mess.

(and yes, this is a slow moving discussion, partly because I don’t come here very regularly … but it’s a worthwhile discussion to have over time, because the effects move slowly)

(Oh and for the popularity of the Euro as a reserve currency, 20% after 5 years is a more than I’d expected, unless of course more than that figure used to be DM reserves of course. :wink: )

Err… I am a novice at this kind of thing, but why exactly is it necessary for there to be a calculated inflation rate for there to be a difference between the change in the local cost of living and the interest rate charged by a bank?
If the same nominal rate is charged across a large area with variations in economic circumstance, then does it not follow that there must be a differential in real rates of interest? I can’t believe that prices change at exactly the same rate in downtown San Francisco or Phoenix as they do in Buffalo New York. If borrowers in say Phoenix can invest borrowed money in the local economy and make a profit, of say 5% but borrowers in say Buffalo can only achieve a return of 3.5%, then would that not imply a difference in real interest rates of 1.5%? :confused:

I was under the impression that the main source of Euro-related pain in EU economies was that having a best-fit interest rate for one large currency area requires some adjustment from the previous situation of having many best-fit rates covering many small currency areas, and that most countries have too many structural rigidities to let them adjust - hence the need for reforms.

As an aside, does the accession of many further small states strengthen or weaken the currency-area argument? I would have thought that countries like Czech, Lithuania etc. which are small and do a lot of cross-border trade as a result would benefit greatly from the exchange-rate stability of the Euro compared to the larger economies of the original countries?

Slaphead, I think you got it exactly right.