# Likelyhood of North Korean US Nuclear Attack and our Response **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 29, 2016, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847 "2016-12-29T16:00:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/41 "2016-12-30T21:06:24Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > I assume that the USN already is tracking all NK sub movement now, precisely because of the concern about sub-based missiles. I doubt we’re doing that good of a job of tracking _all_ NK subs. I suspect the higher-value targets, like the ballistic missile submarines, get more attention, but even then, I wonder how well we do at tracking ballistic missile submarines from adversarial countries. There are the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans, etc. and we only have so many attack submarines to go around, plus some of those are protecting CBGs, and presumably doing other clandestine things. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/42 "2016-12-30T21:15:07Z")
Where did North Korea obtain a submarine that can launch ICBMs? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2016, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/43 "2016-12-30T21:23:00Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Where did North Korea obtain a submarine that can launch ICBMs? They built them themselves, although, to be totally fair, no one believes the missile it launches is capable of inter-_continental_ flight. It’s estimated range is between 500 and 2,000 km. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/44 "2016-12-30T21:28:56Z")
Yeah, a 1950’s era obsolete Soviet sub modified with launch tubes. The US Navy can probably hear it moving through the water without even looking. And they have not successfully launched a missile out of it. But yes, that is their goal, to be able to sneak up on the US and launch missiles right off our coast to minimize any warning or possible intercept. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 30, 2016, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/45 "2016-12-30T21:38:33Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > And they have not successfully launched a missile out of it. False, they successfully launched one in August. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/46 "2016-12-31T00:03:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > False, they successfully launched one in August. You believed that? Fake news scores again! \*Footage released last week by North Korea purporting to show the firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) appears to be fake, according to studies by U.S. experts. … “The rocket ejected, began to light, and then failed catastrophically,” Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute’s CNS, said in an email. “North Korea used heavy video editing to cover over this fact.” \* [http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-analysis-idUSKCN0UQ0CC20160112](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-analysis-idUSKCN0UQ0CC20160112) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/47 "2016-12-31T00:08:14Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > You believed that? Fake news scores again! > > \*Footage released last week by North Korea purporting to show the firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) appears to be fake, according to studies by U.S. experts. > > … > > “The rocket ejected, began to light, and then failed catastrophically,” Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute’s CNS, said in an email. “North Korea used heavy video editing to cover over this fact.” > \* > [http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-analysis-idUSKCN0UQ0CC20160112](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-analysis-idUSKCN0UQ0CC20160112) No, you are mistaken. The story you linked to, and quoted, references a failed / faked attempt in December of last year. If you would kindly re-read my previous post, you may notice that I mentioned a month, and it wasn’t December. Try reading [this story](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKCN10Y2B0) (same source, so since you believed them before, maybe you’ll believe them now) and comparing the dates of the two news stories. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/48 "2016-12-31T00:21:19Z")
My bad, that was the March test. That said, the NK navy has 0 chance of slipping a sub by modern acoustic monitoring systems. And even less that 0 of getting a sub within striking distance of CONUS without being detected. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/49 "2016-12-31T00:30:13Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > My bad, that was the March test. > > That said, the NK navy has 0 chance of slipping a sub by modern acoustic monitoring systems. And even less that 0 of getting a sub within striking distance of CONUS without being detected. Agreed. I don’t think their subs + missiles even have the range to hit Guam, let alone Hawaii, and they’re still a _long_ ways from being able to hit CONUS. The bigger threat would be that they sit off the coast of South Korea and decide to hit Seoul, which I suspect is about all the accuracy their missiles can muster. That being said, to North Korea’s credit, they’ve shown a lot of persistence, and progress, in weapons development. Their first nuclear bomb tests were dismal failures, but they seem to have learned from those and now appear to have functional nuclear weapons. Likewise, their first SLBMs were terrible failures, but they’ve learned from their mistakes, to the point where they’ve now finally launched (once) a semi-credible SLBM. I suppose the threat of ISIS-like cruel executions for failures has a clarifying effect on the minds of their weapons program personnel. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/50 "2016-12-31T01:12:38Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I suppose the threat of ISIS-like cruel executions for failures has a clarifying effect on the minds of their weapons program personnel. “The English occasionally shoot a few admirals to encourage the others.” -Voltaire? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/51 "2016-12-31T01:21:38Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > What would China do about it? No country that wants to continue exist will take the side of a country that launches an NBC attack on the US, and China very much wants to exist as a country. And doing anything more than making speeches urging restraint or asking to be a part of the occupation forces would qualify as ‘taking the side’. And that goes double when we have a president who’s apparently looking for an excuse to use nukes on somebody. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/52 "2016-12-31T01:58:17Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > What would China do about it? After a nuclear attack by North Korea? They’d denounce Kim and volunteer to assist in the regime change. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2016, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/53 "2016-12-31T02:57:17Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > After a nuclear attack by North Korea? They’d denounce Kim and volunteer to assist in the regime change. China has a lot of people and land area, and likes the USA only as a customer for cheap products. ---
**Author:** ![chargerrich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chargerrich/32/5399_2.png) [@chargerrich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chargerrich)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2017, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847/54 "2017-01-03T13:32:47Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > This would be like sucker-punching Mike Tyson. If he’s not expecting it, the confusion might cost him a few seconds but the counter-punch will be no less devastating. IMO this misses the point… the flaw is you are assuming that NK thinks like a civilized nation and not like a terrorist state. While I concede that they are not similar I would posit that NK is closer to a “martyr state” like ISIS or Al Qaeda than traditional government like South Korea. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/likelyhood-of-north-korean-us-nuclear-attack-and-our-response/775847.md?page=2)