# Limits to technological collapse? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 12, 2025, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539 "2025-06-12T19:10:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/61 "2025-06-17T03:03:43Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > . There may have been some reason to think it was known and forgotten before the Romans found out the hard way, or decided they didn’t care as you suggest I’m pretty skeptical of this. I’ve never heard of any contemporary Roman source that implies the Romans knew of the dangers of lead exposure. The idea of lead poisoning leading being a contributor to the collapse of the Roman empire came millennia later. It’s possible they knew you had to be careful when you used lead as an artificial sweetener in wine (which was a thing), as you could get a lethal dose. But the idea that if something is lethal in large doses it is harmful in small doses would not have been around then (for millennia the opposite was thought true and small doses of things that would be poisonous in large doses was considered a good thing) Still total side track. Happy to start new thread on subject ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/62 "2025-06-17T03:14:20Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Because [the cites](https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2020/01/swsc190079/swsc190079.html) I’m seeing are saying that absolutely there’s a big difference between the day and night side. That paper is discussing solar flare effects on the geomagnetic field, not coronal mass ejection and solar energetic particle interactions. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/63 "2025-06-17T03:55:53Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > > [@TriPolar](#): > > > > . There may have been some reason to think it was known and forgotten before the Romans found out the hard way, or decided they didn’t care as you suggest > > I’m pretty skeptical of this. I’ve never heard of any contemporary Roman source that implies the Romans knew of the dangers of lead exposure. The idea of lead poisoning leading being a contributor to the collapse of the Roman empire came millennia later. > > Still total side track. Happy to start new thread on subject [Some sources disagree.](https://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/encyclopaedia_romana/wine/leadpoisoning.html) ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/64 "2025-06-17T11:55:24Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > That paper is discussing solar flare effects on the geomagnetic field, not coronal mass ejection and solar energetic particle interactions. They are usually coupled, but in any case, let’s just bring it back to simple terms. Is it your position that CMEs will affect the world equally? Why didn’t the CMEs that we have on record done that? ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/65 "2025-06-17T12:44:06Z")
I think that almost all the participants in this discussion lack an understanding of agriculture, and the fragile basis upon which it rests. Industrial chemicals and fossil fuel are what make the factory farms run, but climate change is now and will continue to disrupt and will probably destroy what we think of as farming. Without chemical factories and fossil fuels, we won’t have Big Ag, and we won’t have transportation networks to carry food but a few miles anyway. But farming itself relies not on our technology but on soil, climate, and weather. We aren’t going to be cleverly scavenging for the means to recreate modernity. Starving people do not have the capacity to do shit like that. Think about all those pictures of war zones and famines, the desperate people waiting for relief from other countries. Now imagine there are no other countries. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/66 "2025-06-17T14:58:26Z")
I have no doubt the early major impact on people following a technological collapse will be mass starvation, and the violence that results. We can’t feed 8 billion people without technology. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/67 "2025-06-17T15:00:20Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > That is an interesting secondary aspect. We may retain some knowledge of many subjects like medicines but without the possibility of applying that knowledge it could fade away. I’m reminded that civilization has lost the understanding of the dangers of lead several times. We could store all the important books and scientific papers on microfilm and microfiche. Those can last for centuries. If text is printed on the right kind of paper with the right kind of ink, it can arguably last for centuries. You could probably etch info on metal plates instead of microfilm too. You could have heavily guarded, underground libraries that have the source material, then you could print cheaper copies to spread all over the world. Also as far as technology, the pareto principle would apply. Maybe ~20% of our knowledge provides 80% of the benefit. The benefits from things like germ theory, antibiotics, vaccines, the [WHO Model List of Essential Medicines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WHO_Model_List_of_Essential_Medicines), etc are going to be more valuable than understanding a niche field of endocrinology for example. Regarding the WHO list of essential medicines, there are about ~500 medications on that list, but there are over 20,000 prescription meds total. So about 3% of medicines make up the bulk of the medicines needed to keep a health system going. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/68 "2025-06-17T15:30:05Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > We could store all the important books and scientific papers on microfilm and microfiche. Those can last for centuries. If text is printed on the right kind of paper with the right kind of ink, it can arguably last for centuries. You could probably etch info on metal plates instead of microfilm too. You could have heavily guarded, underground libraries that have the source material, then you could print cheaper copies to spread all over the world. We _could_ do all that. But we mostly haven’t. A lot of knowledge is increasingly becoming available only in electronic formats. Mass produced modern books are not “printed on the right kind of paper with the right kind of ink”, and typical libraries are not designed as long term archival storage. I am not so sanguine about availability of knowledge after a really severe collapse of civilization (probably involving the death of most humans on the planet). ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/69 "2025-06-17T16:16:57Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Without chemical factories and fossil fuels, we won’t have Big Ag, and we won’t have transportation networks to carry food but a few miles anyway. But farming itself relies not on our technology but on soil, climate, and weather. We are, quite literally, eating dinosaurs. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/70 "2025-06-17T16:19:41Z")
But again, coal isn’t going to run out as fast as petroleum. IF the decline was slow enough to allow for retrenchment, and I acknowledge that that’s an “if”, we could plausibly revive steam locomotives and ships. That’s huge because as long as there’s mechanically powered rail and ship transport, we won’t go back to pre-industrial distribution modes. The “Wild West” was in fact built upon the technological revolution of becoming cost-effective to ship cattle raised on the Great Plains back to stockyards in Chicago and Saint Louis. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/71 "2025-06-17T17:33:07Z")
We need some kind of organization to do all that. We could call it, I dunno, something like “Foundation.” ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/72 "2025-06-17T17:35:25Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > as long as there’s mechanically powered rail and ship transport, we won’t go back to pre-industrial distribution modes. I think we need to specify what kind of economic collapse has happened, in order to frame the discussion. Almost any permanant severe disruption to the global economy is probably going to result in the death of billions of people in the ‘developed’ countries. Probably complete anarchy? Hard to predict beyond that… ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/73 "2025-06-17T17:47:04Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > We are, quite literally, eating dinosaurs. Isn’t it more like burning dinosaurs? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/74 "2025-06-17T18:40:51Z")
I mean that petroleum is at least partly being used directly for food production (e.g., as a component of fertilizer), meaning we are literally eating dinosaurs. Without fossil fuel use, food production would drop below global population sustainability. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/75 "2025-06-17T18:43:21Z")
Well, I believe you are using literally in a somewhat sideways interpretation but I’ll let it go. Those dinosaurs aren’t as tasty as they used to be. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/76 "2025-06-17T19:43:45Z")
Petroleum refining produces a high-carbon coke as a byproduct; this is used in place of the older coal coke in nitrogen fixing processes. It’s cheap since it would otherwise be a waste product when petroleum fuels are being produced anyway, but nitrate could go back to being produced by the older Haber process. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/77 "2025-06-17T19:57:45Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Isn’t it more like burning dinosaurs? Depending on exactly which definition you use, chickens either are or are descended from theropod dinosaurs, so yeah, we’re kind of eating them too. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/78 "2025-06-17T19:59:46Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Those dinosaurs aren’t as tasty as they used to be. Dinosaur ribs are delicious! But quite heavy. A rack of them will tip your car over. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/uq7noaMwLfg/maxresdefault.jpg "The Flintstones Opening and Closing Theme 1960 1966") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uq7noaMwLfg&t=53/) ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/79 "2025-06-17T21:30:38Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Petroleum refining produces a high-carbon coke as a byproduct; this is used in place of the older coal coke in nitrogen fixing processes. It’s cheap since it would otherwise be a waste product when petroleum fuels are being produced anyway, but nitrate could go back to being produced by the older Haber process. True, but somewhat off topic, I think. That is about how industrial processes on a large scale work today. The original question seems to be about how much technology could be sustainable with a much smaller and probably more rural population. Rather ignoring the probable massive die-off that would result in a collapse of modern technology and the global commerce that it requires. How many people are left, and how much knowledge do we retain? There seem to be a few possible levels. - Best case, we at least keep most of the knowledge. We can still generate electricity. Anything electronic is probably unavailable: certainly no semiconductors and even vacuum tubes can’t be produced in a home shop. But at least we have lathes etc in machine shops. - Next worse: we still have early 19th century or late 18th century technology: production of iron, steel and other industrial materials is still possible. (Maybe not immediately necessary, since scrap and leftover materials would be available, which might delay this). - Next level down: 14th to 18th century city-state era. Products and materials are produced on a small scale by artisan shops on a small scale and are not generally available except to the wealthy. Before that, what? The villiage blacksmith is all you have. Though even in medieval times, it seems that blacksmiths did not usually produce their own iron: there was a specialist trade called a ‘bloom’ maker who extracted the basic iron from raw materials. So even then this required something of a network of trade to maintain it. How far back in the collapse are we looking…? ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2025, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/80 "2025-06-17T21:59:48Z")
> [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > True, but somewhat off topic, I think. That is about how industrial processes on a large scale work today. I was addressing the one specific issue of petroleum depletion. My point was that lumping all “fossil fuels” together is misleading because there almost certainly will still be coal when petroleum is too rare and expensive to use much anymore. If fuel was the _only_ issue then late-19th century looks doable, at least if the contraction didn’t produce snowballing effects that tear down what otherwise might continue. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539.md?page=5)