# Limits to technological collapse? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 12, 2025, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539 "2025-06-12T19:10:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/121 "2025-06-20T11:57:22Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > But even that gets pretty ‘collapsed’ at some point. When “how many jobs do I need to afford the cheapest mortgage” becomes “how many jobs do I need for my family not to starve to death” that’s not that different to a cataclysmic collapse. At the technological collapse level, there won’t be ‘jobs’. Or money, for that matter. Subsistence level societies don’t need money. Exchange is by barter or service. It’s remarkable to me how difficult it is for modern people to grasp what subsistence cultures are like. Your life revolves around food – growing or gathering or hunting – and processing it, and preserving it from other animals. You don’t have leisure for reconstructing a failed civilization. In a lush and healthy ecosystem you might not have to work that hard to eat, but that is not what we’ll have. We’ll be trying to find food in damaged, impoverished, or destroyed biomes. I know this because that’s what we already have right now. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/122 "2025-06-20T12:01:37Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > society would be severely limited by a lack of horses and other domesticated animals. Cows make perfectly good beasts of burden, if slow and unromantic, and we have millions and millions of cows. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/123 "2025-06-20T12:08:58Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > So the trick is to survive the big dying off and hope society isn’t left with nothing by hair stylists, phone sanitisers, management consultants, and other "Arc " types with no practical survival or civilization-building skills. Given that literally _billions_ of people live off smallholder subsistence agriculture, I think society overall will be have a big enough pool of useful people. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/124 "2025-06-20T12:14:54Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Given that literally _billions_ of people live off smallholder subsistence agriculture, I think society overall will be have a big enough pool of useful people. Yeah; i think that what a lot of people aren’t getting is that after a collapse it won’t _be_ the “advanced” societies that rebound from it; it’ll be the societies that already mostly make do without modern technology. Both because the disruption will be smaller, and because the people there will actually _have_ the skillsets to survive. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/125 "2025-06-20T12:14:57Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Every thing else ran on muscles, mainly those of horses. Those horses no longer exist, at least not in the numbers needed. Horses are not the _primary_ animal power that ran the world, oxen are. And I use the present tense there because around 30% of the world’s subsistence agriculturalists _still_ rely on bovine muscle power(a larger fraction _just_ uses human muscles) ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/126 "2025-06-20T12:21:15Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I was thinking more like 1700s level of technology.[…snip…] most stuff made with wood or whatever metal you could scrounge and bang into crude tools. That’s not 1700s, that’s maybe 1700s BCE. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/127 "2025-06-20T15:17:24Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > At the technological collapse level, there won’t be ‘jobs’. Or money, for that matter. Subsistence level societies don’t need money. Though that’s the point of this thread. Is society going to collapse to the level of subsistence farming, like 10000bc? It’s not a given IMO. Society is pretty resilient just because huge numbers of people starve to death does not mean we revert to bronze age farmers, prior to the 20th century societies coped with massive famines and didn’t collapse. Government will be much more unstable, fragmented and probably authoritarian but won’t disappear. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/128 "2025-06-20T15:23:04Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > it’ll be the societies that already mostly make do without modern technology Though I’m skeptical many such people exist. Maybe 50 years ago they did but your average African smallhold farmer is just as dependent on fragile international supply networks for their machinery, tools, and supplies, as your Manhattan apartment dweller. They may not have as much technology as a huge western farm, but they aren’t iron age subsistence farmers either, they use tools, fertilizer, pesticides, some machines. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/129 "2025-06-20T16:44:15Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > They may not have as much technology as a huge western farm, but they aren’t iron age subsistence farmers either, they use tools, fertilizer, pesticides, some machines. Tools, sure (although, even there, they’re mostly using tools even an amateur blacksmith could whip up - hoes, spades, adzes). Modern fertilizers, pesticides and machines? Not really: Approximately 2 out of 3 smallholder households in Sub‑Saharan Africa report **no use** of inorganic fertilizer. Only 16% use any agro-chemicals (fertilizers or pesticides) at all. ([Cite](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-myths-and-facts/publication/africa-s-agricultural-input-landscape-in-sub-saharan-africa)) Over 75% of smallholders still prepare land by hand—using hoes, sticks, diggers. Western ignorance about what it’s _really_ like in rural Africa will never cease to amaze me. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/130 "2025-06-20T17:10:40Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I think a lot of it depends on the nature and timeline of the collapse. You’re talking about a slow global “enshitification”, which might be driven by something like climate change, dwindling resources, or population crash. Technology, infrastructure, markets, and political structures are still functional, but standard of living is getting steadily worse. > > By “collapse” I picture some Jared Diamond-esq tipping point where society as we know it simply can’t function. Short of nuclear war, some sort of global EMP event (natural or man-made), or some “magical” scenario that changes the laws of physics, it’s hard to imagine what might cause such a sudden collapse on a global scale. Although some sort of outage in a global AI “smart operating system” that we have become over-reliant on might be a good candidate. The more dramatic scenario for collapse was what I originally posted on, the one you quoted from in part was my attempt to create a scenario from @Lumpy’s (the OP) efforts to describe what they were looking for in more detail. I agree, a major precipitating event changes things _immensely_. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/131 "2025-06-20T17:12:40Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Tools, sure (although, even there, they’re mostly using tools even an amateur blacksmith could whip up - hoes, spades, adzes). Modern fertilizers, pesticides and machines? Not really: > Approximately 2 out of 3 smallholder households in Sub‑Saharan Africa report **no use** of inorganic fertilizer. Only 16% use any agro-chemicals (fertilizers or pesticides) at all. ([Cite](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-myths-and-facts/publication/africa-s-agricultural-input-landscape-in-sub-saharan-africa)) > Over 75% of smallholders still prepare land by hand—using hoes, sticks, diggers. So, you are suggesting that Africa is better positioned to survive the crash? Cradle of civilization and sustainer of civilization in times of trouble? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/132 "2025-06-20T17:17:08Z")
If the only issue is loss of tech and its products, yes. Probably parts of Asia as well. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/133 "2025-06-20T17:23:28Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Only 16% use any agro-chemicals (fertilizers or pesticides) at all. ([Cite](https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-myths-and-facts/publication/africa-s-agricultural-input-landscape-in-sub-saharan-africa)) That cite says the opposite. It’s making the point chemical use is higher than you’d expect in smallholders in subsaharan Africa. Around two thirds of plots use inorganic fertilizer: [![](https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Programs/Africa/Agriculture%20in%20Africa%20Telling%20facts%20from%20Myths/afr-myths-and-fact-africa-s-agricultural-input-landscape-in-sub-saharan-africa-520x347.jpg) ](https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Programs/Africa/Agriculture%20in%20Africa%20Telling%20facts%20from%20Myths/afr-myths-and-fact-africa-s-agricultural-input-landscape-in-sub-saharan-africa-520x347.jpg) It also points out that while owning tractors is rare, shared shared access to them is less so. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/134 "2025-06-20T17:28:22Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > prior to the 20th century societies coped with massive famines and didn’t collapse. I would bet that these famines were contained within a geographical area of an intact civilization. When the famine was over life went on. Even the Black Death, which quickly killed about half the European population, did not destroy cities, or roads, or poison rivers, or burn libraries. It was more like a natural phenomenon that temporarily decreases the population of a species. Technological collapse will not be like that. Although it may very likely include famine and plague. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/135 "2025-06-20T17:30:14Z")
That diagram is specifically about Ethiopia; the study notes that in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Malawi, use of fertilizers and other agro-chemicals is significantly higher than in Niger, Tanzania, and Uganda. Across all of the six nations included, two-thirds of households reported no use of inorganic fertilizer and eighty-four percent do not use agro-chemicals. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/136 "2025-06-20T17:30:19Z")
It literally says 84% use no agrochemicals. The tractor use example, and the graph, are talking about _specific_ country figures. The survey results cover all of them. Despite prevailing Western thinking, Africa is not , in fact, a country ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/137 "2025-06-20T17:35:41Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > It literally says 84% use no agrochemicals. I think that excludes inorganic fertilizer or those numbers make no sense. The first words of that article are this (bolding mine) > COMMON WISDOM #1: African farmers’ use of modern inputs is dismally low. > > SCORE: 2 - Mythish > > FINDINGS: > > - **Chemical input use is not as low as is often assumed** ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/138 "2025-06-20T17:43:52Z")
Aah, I see the issue. I said fertilizer in the parentheses when I meant herbicides. My apologies. Doesn’t change the larger point. It’s 66% for no inorganic fertilizer anyway. Still pretty damn low uptake of modern inputs. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/139 "2025-06-20T18:26:34Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > > [@msmith537](#): > > > > I was thinking more like 1700s level of technology.[…snip…] most stuff made with wood or whatever metal you could scrounge and bang into crude tools. > > That’s not 1700s, that’s maybe 1700s BCE. The Eighteenth Century A.D. is perhaps misleading because there was _already_ a “global supply chain” established two hundred years previously based on oceanic trade. Talk about lost knowledge and depleted resources– being able to build a wooden sailing ship that can carry a load of cargo from Europe to the Pacific Rim and back. Which required almost literally forests of lumber to build. Before railroads ships were it as far as long-range economical cargo movement went. Europe was lucky enough to have long coastlines and barge-navigable rivers from the interior to those coastal ports. Without that market chain purely local demand would have been insufficient for the economy of scale needed for blast furnaces and the first mechanically produced goods such as cloth. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2025, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539/140 "2025-06-20T18:35:30Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > I think a lot of it depends on the nature and timeline of the collapse. You’re talking about a slow global “enshitification”, which might be driven by something like climate change, dwindling resources, or population crash. Technology, infrastructure, markets, and political structures are still functional, but standard of living is getting steadily worse. Yeah, like maybe “Soylent Green”. Civilization hasn’t collapsed (yet), but it’s sagged quite a bit. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/limits-to-technological-collapse/1019539.md?page=8)