# Logistics of Partitioning Iraq **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 6, 2006, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688 "2006-05-06T19:12:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/41 "2006-05-12T18:45:51Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Maybe you’ve heard about the Kurdish rebellion in Turkey before now? [Primer.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers_Party) [/QUOTE] Yeh, but that article says there’s been a cease-fire in effect (more or less) since 2004/ ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/42 "2006-05-12T18:59:25Z")
Leaving whom in control of the area? The Ankara government seems to have recognized that there is going to be some kind of Kurdish state in the current Iraq, affiliated at least in spirit with the PKK, and that their interests lie in having at least cordial relations with it. The flat statements we’ve seen in this thread that Turkey will “never accept” it, and might even intervene in Iraq militarily, sure don’t seem realistic (there’s that word again). ---
**Author:** ![Alien](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/57b2e6/32.png) [@Alien](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alien)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/43 "2006-05-12T19:30:47Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Yeh, but that article says there’s been a cease-fire in effect (more or less) since 2004/ [/QUOTE] The cease-fire, introduced AFAIK in 2000, broke down a while ago. Btw, another aspect of the future of Kurdistan is that the Kurds are very close to Israel … ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/44 "2006-05-12T20:14:04Z")
> [@](#): > > Depends on how credible the threat is. Ankara can’t even exert authority over its own Kurdish region - how well can it go into and control another one? Well considering the fact that until around '97 there was no official Kurdish language in Turkey or radio broadcasts, and that the military had effectively put a stranglehold on the area, I think they exerted good control in repressing the Kurds. > [@](#): > > As for Iran, are the mullahs going to get diverted from their own goal of controlling a Shiite Iraq with some adventurism that could only stir up their own Kurdish separatist movement? That’s assuming that Shia Arabs actually welcome Shia Persian interference in their affairs. Influence only goes so far. > [@](#): > > Seems to me that the Iraqi Kurdish leadership hasn’t been deterred from its goal of independence since WW1, and especially since being placed under NATO protection at the end of GW1. They might not take your scenario as inevitable. I do because I know the Kurdish leadership aren’t going to be so stupid in as to declare independence with Turkish and Iranian militaries threatening incursions into their borders, no matter how much they want independence right now, the best they can get at this moment is large portions of autonomy from the weakest link in the chain, the Iraqi government. Don’t get me wrong, Kurdish independence will happen, however the Iraqi state south won’t split up. > [@](#): > > As we say around here, “How’s that workin’ out for ya?” After all these years of occupation, the most recent reports are that the Iraqi Army is down to a single semireliable battalion, and that it serves mainly to provide weapons and training to people who then fade back into their ethnic militias. The ‘semireliable’ battilion is only ‘semireliable’ in the terms of logistics, not fighting, there are plenty of Iraqis who are willing to join the army and fight the insurgents. Iraqi armed forces strength in the terms of readiness is divided into three levels, 1,2 and 3. Obviously 3 is the least trained and just formed, with one independent, operational and capable of supplying it’s men with food equipment and ammunition. Most of the Iraqi armed forces are within level 2, operational, frequently fighting the insurgents and Militia forces, but not yet able to supply their men with ammunition etc sufficiently or at all. 58 Army, and special Battilions are at this level as are 8 support and Air Force and Navy battilions. Although the Police force is hampered by accusations of sectarianism, the same accusations are harder to come by when talking about the Iraqi army. I don’t need to remind you that the level 2 operational status is the critical level in which the Iraqi security services need to be at in order to own their own battle space. There is a reason why as to one US commander foresaw the Iraqi army taking over 70% of all operations within the country by the end of the Summer. [http://www.brook.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf](http://www.brook.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf) Go to page 25 for the statistics. > [@](#): > > It seems you have an idiosyncratic definition of “realistic”, then. Who’s going to do that? The Government of course, since disbanding them or incorporating them into the armed forces is going to be the only valid soultions onto which they can be gotten rid of as a destablising force. > [@](#): > > The head of the Iranian Shiite theocracy. Gee, I wonder what his goals could possibly be? Whatever could happen once the minority opposition to Iraq’s Shiite theocracy is disarmed? Hmm, thinkthinkthink… Well since Ayatollah Sistani rejects the notion of Mullahs leading politics, it shouldn’t be disregarded that in a highly religious society which is Iraq, that the statements made by religious authority (in his case, have been helpful) won’t be ignored. He wants militias disarmed because it will mean his competitor Sadr will also be disarmed as well. Not everything coming out the mouth of the Clergy will mean disaster. :rolleyes: The head of the Shiite Iranian theocracy isn’t Sistani but Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2006, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/45 "2006-05-12T20:45:36Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] Leaving whom in control of the area? The Ankara government seems to have recognized that there is going to be some kind of Kurdish state in the current Iraq, affiliated at least in spirit with the PKK, and that their interests lie in having at least cordial relations with it. The flat statements we’ve seen in this thread that Turkey will “never accept” it, and might even intervene in Iraq militarily, sure don’t seem realistic (there’s that word again). [/QUOTE] The Ankara government is already taking small steps to realising that it’s stranglehold on the Kurdish area is having a negative effect, so in order to lesson tensions and also to gain EU membership, it’s less restrictive of it’s repression of Kurdish demands in the east of Turkey. And considering the fact Turkish and Kurdish businesses are investing heavily in Iraqi Kurdistan, that fate of ‘military intervention’ could be superceeded by mutual cooperation and dependence. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2006, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688/46 "2006-05-13T19:10:51Z")
[Iraq reconciliation conference in June](http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-05-13T233616Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-249092-1.xml&archived=False) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/logistics-of-partitioning-iraq/355688.md?page=2)