# Long Covid - what's the prevalence and prognosis? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 4, 2021, 8:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157 "2021-03-04T08:31:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2021, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/41 "2021-05-01T14:52:35Z")
The effect of false negative PCR tests would only be to inflate the number of people in the PCR-negative control group reporting symptoms. The data from the ONS research was that among those PCR positive, 14% report symptoms at 12 weeks, **8 times greater** than the PCR negative control group. So that already implies that most of that 14% is real and caused by the virus, false negative PCR tests don’t have any impact on that headline. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2021, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/42 "2021-05-01T15:15:03Z")
I’m not sure if this has been peer-reviewed yet, but it sounds interesting. > “We found that exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein alone was enough to change baseline gene expression in airway cells,” said Nicholas Evans, student at the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Centre in the US. > **[Gene changes may explain symptoms in COVID survivors](https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/international/gene-changes-may-explain-symptoms-in-covid-survivors)** > > A new cell study can explain why some COVID-19 patients -- referred to as COVID long-haulers -- experience symptoms such as shortness of breath and dizziness long after clearing the infection ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/43 "2021-05-12T00:23:28Z")
Cross-linking to this post in the main CV breaking news thread: > [@Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1343): > > I found this Vox podcast really enlightening about “long COVID.” It talks about how all serious pathogens can, and pretty much do, give rise to similar long-term symptoms. So, one thing about long COVID is that because so many people are sick at the same time, there are many cases of this at the same time. So, it can be studied, and people are being believed rather than brushed off more. But Covid isn’t unique in causing these kinds of medically unexplained sequelae. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/44 "2021-05-12T18:27:15Z")
Study on penile erection dystunction after Covid. [https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/naok95/covid19\_found\_in\_penile\_tissue\_could\_contribute/](https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/naok95/covid19_found_in_penile_tissue_could_contribute/) First comment in the thread by [ramasamymd](https://old.reddit.com/user/ramasamymd) claims to be a senior author on the study and mentions a couple other resources. > [@](#): > > This was a pilot study demonstrating the COVID virus in the penis tissue upto 7 months after the initial infection. As senior author on this study ([https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.210055](https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.210055)) , I wanted to weigh in. > > What we know > > 1. COVID virus can enter the endothelial cells - cells that line the blood vessels supplying blood to the penis > 2. Endothelial dysfunction, typically present in men with COVID could be a common denominator for erectile dysfunction > 3. COVID19 is NOT sexually transmitted since it is absent in the semen among men who have recovered - our previous study ([https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.200192](https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.200192)) > > What we don’t know > > 1. Whether the severity of erectile dysfunction is associated with the severity of COVID > 2. The true prevalence of erectile dysfunction among COVID survivors > > What should men do > > Men who develop erectile dysfunction after COVID should discuss with their doctor if the symptoms persist to discuss treatment options since ED may be due to underlying vascular disease rather than psychological causes. Obviously, do everything possible to avoid getting infected. Email me - ramasamy at [miami.edu](https://miami.edu) for further questions ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/45 "2021-05-12T22:40:38Z")
Where else but Miami would we be studying whether COVID is also an STD? Of _course_ it’s Miami!!1?1!! I love living here; it’s just not a place; it’s a never-ending always-sordid adventure. Once all the maskholes have caught COVID and been rendered ED, they’ll really be up for some CT buffoonery. And highly frustrated. I predict fireworks. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/46 "2021-05-12T22:45:23Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > > COVID19 is NOT sexually transmitted [quoting a quote within @Heffalump_and_Roo 's comment] That seems like a ridiculous claim to me, unless you’re having sex through a hole in a wall. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/47 "2021-05-12T22:52:09Z")
?? That looks like a piece of this quote. > [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > COVID19 is NOT sexually transmitted since it is absent in the semen among men who have recovered - our previous study ([https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.200192](https://wjmh.org/DOIx.php?id=10.5534/wjmh.200192)) That looks like it says that it’s not sexually transmitted from men who have recovered from Covid. Not sure why you truncated that. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/48 "2021-05-12T23:51:49Z")
I suppose @Riemann is suggesting that two people breathing hard, probably in each other’s faces, might, just might, be at some risk of transmitting COVID between them if either of them had an active infection. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/49 "2021-05-13T12:11:34Z")
Wasn’t there some country that opened the brothels but required the use of glory holes? ---
**Author:** ![mistymage](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mistymage/32/459_2.png) [@mistymage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mistymage)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/50 "2021-06-08T14:03:50Z")
This article caught my eye and I think this thread is the best place to put it. The article has a direct link to the not yet peer reviewed study. " An HIV-positive woman with a persistent [coronavirus](https://www.jpost.com/coronavirus) infection that lasted 216 days straight had the virus mutate within her over 30 times, according to new [research]" > **[HIV patient had COVID for over 7 months, infection mutated over 30 times](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/hiv-patient-had-covid-for-over-7-months-infection-mutated-over-30-times-670398)** > > Of the mutations found in the patient, both the UK and South African variants were noted to be present at one point or another throughout the length of the woman's infection. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/51 "2021-06-08T14:50:49Z")
I find it vaguely comforting that the virus re-invented some of the same variants we are seeing elsewhere. Maybe it doesn’t have a ton of possible variability? Am I being too optimistic? ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/52 "2021-06-08T16:49:51Z")
Most of the named variants of SARS-CoV-2 refer to alterations in the spike (S) protein because that is what controls the infectiousness of the virion, e.g. its ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor (the receptor binding domain) and mediate cell membrane fusion, which is what both vaccine development and most therapeutic research is focused on. The S-protein sequence is only 1273 amino acids long, and only a tiny fraction of the possible permutations will result in a viable protein, so it is unsurprising to see the same genetic variants spontaneously emerging, and in fact it is statistically inevitable given how many total infected cells there are. There are also the E, M, and N genes that code their respective structural proteins but they aren’t likely to make a substantial change to viral replication or infectiousness; however, a change to the ORF region that produces proteases and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase could potentially alter the replication rate and pathogenesis of the infected cell, and in fact most alterations occur in the ORF region because it is the largest part of the viral genome, coding for 29 individual proteins, and if the virus were to suddenly become far more virulent along the lines of SARS-CoV(-1) or MERS-CoV it would most likely be in that region. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/53 "2021-06-08T17:56:30Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > I find it vaguely comforting that the virus re-invented some of the same variants we are seeing elsewhere. Maybe it doesn’t have a ton of possible variability? Am I being too optimistic? Sort of parallel evolution, I suppose. It is interesting how this virus is teaching us so much about biology and medicine. As @Stranger_On_A_Train explains, I guess selective pressure regarding interactions will only give you so many competitive mutants in the receptor binding motif (which isn’t that large). Then there’s the hinge for hiding from antibodies and membrane fusion. Plus, the epitopes that antibodies recognize are also limited. I suspect that there isn’t that much diversity in antibodies that can successfully neutralize the virus. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84913-3](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84913-3) ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/54 "2021-06-08T18:38:58Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > I suspect that there isn’t that much diversity in antibodies that can successfully neutralize the virus. No, there’s not. Last fall I audited an MIT course on Covid, and one of the lectures was about the development of the artificial antibodies that they gave to president trump. (It was broadcast a few days before trump was publicly diagnosed with covid, so it was an extremely timely lecture.) They had studied the antibody response of several people who recovered from covid, and when they looked at the antibodies in serum samples that were especially good at neutralizing the virus, all of those samples had the same four antibodies. (two of when went into the cocktail.) ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2021, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/55 "2021-06-08T18:48:55Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > No, there’s not. Last fall I audited an MIT course on Covid, and one of the lectures was about the development of the artificial antibodies that they gave to president trump. (It was broadcast a few days before trump was publicly diagnosed with covid, so it was an extremely timely lecture.) They had studied the antibody response of several people who recovered from covid, and when they looked at the antibodies in serum samples that were especially good at neutralizing the virus, all of those samples had the same four antibodies. (two of when went into the cocktail.) Very interesting! ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Duality](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.duality/32/4098_2.png) [@Mr.Duality](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Duality)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2021, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/56 "2021-06-14T13:05:17Z")
The latest from the BBC on Long Covid: “But to fully understand the subtleties of this complex condition, it is necessary to consider long Covid as encompassing two very disparate patient groups – those who were admitted to hospital and those who weren’t – each with different underlying causes.” [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210609-how-long-will-long-covid-last](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210609-how-long-will-long-covid-last) ---
**Author:** ![EnglishGrey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/englishgrey/32/14111_2.png) [@EnglishGrey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EnglishGrey)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/57 "2021-12-20T12:59:57Z")
I have noticed an interesting shift in attitude among younger cohorts here in the UK recently. Their concerns about catching Covid seem to be moving from worrying about death, hospitalisation or serious illness if infected, towards worrying about possible long Covid. This is in part down to the increased levels of vaccination in the population but also there appears to be an increasing amount of anecdotal information relating to ongoing symptoms. This is of course before the effects of Omicron become visible in this context. I can’t find any reliable up to date data on the prevalence of long Covid, and definitely not age-stratified. The last articles I could find showed rates of around 2% in infected populations as a whole. Does anyone have any good quality data on this, particularly analysing age as a factor? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/58 "2021-12-20T13:06:06Z")
Huh, that’s been the focus of my younger friends for most of the pandemic. Someone posted a study showing 2/3 of people had long covid over in another thread. I’ve seen 10% somewhere, and you saw 2%. I think until we get more precise definitions of “long covid” it will be hard to pin this down. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/59 "2021-12-20T13:07:51Z")
Here it is > **[Many With Mild COVID-19 Infections Experience Long-Term Symptoms](https://news.arizona.edu/story/many-mild-covid-19-infections-experience-long-term-symptoms)** > > Data shows that 67% of people with mild or moderate COVID-19 infection develop long COVID, with symptoms that last more than 30 days after a positive test. ---
**Author:** ![EnglishGrey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/englishgrey/32/14111_2.png) [@EnglishGrey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EnglishGrey)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2021, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157/60 "2021-12-20T13:17:24Z")
Thank you, that is interesting. Here [Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/7october2021) is an ONS study from the UK with data up to 5th September. I think , from my experience, that the shift in attitudes is being caused by the huge case increase here in the UK driven by the Omicron variant, and the feeling amongst people that, even though vaccinated, they may not be able to avoid catching Covid and having long term life-limiting health issues even though they are doing everything right (with regard to vaccines, boosters, masks et al). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-covid-whats-the-prevalence-and-prognosis/937157.md?page=4)