# Long-term prospects for Israel **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 19, 2014, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062 "2014-11-19T12:17:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2014, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/41 "2014-11-19T23:13:06Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Because Palestinians do not just want “a state”. If that was all they wanted, they could have it 65 years ago, 40 years ago, 30 years ago, or last year. They want particular territory, which includes Tel Aviv, Haifa, Yafo, Galil, Acco, Tzefat, Beer Sheva and Eilat. And until they get it, there will be “Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. They’re not monolithic, and opinions can change. Further, that part of my OP assumes that (at some point) they do, and that a two-state agreement is signed. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2014, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/42 "2014-11-19T23:38:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > They’re not monolithic, and opinions can change. Western kind of thinking doesn’t work in the Middle East. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/43 "2014-11-20T00:02:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > They’re not monolithic, and opinions can change. > [@Terr](#): > > Western kind of thinking doesn’t work in the Middle East. “Not monolithic, and opinions can change” is a description of human thinking, not Western thinking. The people of the Middle East aren’t a sci-fi hive mind of giant telepathic bugs. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/44 "2014-11-20T00:04:23Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > The people of the Middle East aren’t a sci-fi hive mind of giant telepathic bugs. Oh, don’t go applying your Western thinking. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/45 "2014-11-20T00:13:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I agree, and I didn’t say they were. > > To some extent, but this could be much, much worse. Worse than the Holocaust? Because that would be the measure. It will be interesting to see what Allesan has to say about this thread. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/46 "2014-11-20T00:34:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Worse than the Holocaust? Because that would be the measure. ??? > [@](#): > > It will be interesting to see what Allesan has to say about this thread. I’m looking forward to his thoughts as well. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/47 "2014-11-20T01:15:09Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I’m fairly sure Israel’s long term future is to be destroyed, along with most of its population. They’ve got too many enemies whom they are unlikely to be able to defeat forever, and are relatively small. They have nukes, and won’t go alone. ---
**Author:** ![robert\_columbia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e79b87/32.png) [@robert\_columbia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robert_columbia)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/48 "2014-11-20T01:21:16Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Worse than the Holocaust? Because that would be the measure. > … You lose. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/49 "2014-11-20T01:28:22Z")
> [@robert\_columbia](#): > > You lose. Six million in the Shoah, eight million in Israel now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/50 "2014-11-20T02:35:38Z")
And 400 million in the Arab world. Israel’s Jews won’t die without taking all their enemies with them. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/51 "2014-11-20T02:36:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And 400 million in the Arab world. Israel’s Jews won’t die without taking all their enemies with them. I agree. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/52 "2014-11-20T03:30:57Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I’m fairly sure Israel’s long term future is to be destroyed, along with most of its population. They’ve got too many enemies whom they are unlikely to be able to defeat forever, and are relatively small. Time is actually on Israel’s side if the Arab world continues to liberalize. The hatred whipped up against Israel is mainly fanned by state-controlled media and unlike in the West, there’s no one to question whether the Palestinians are really the good guys here. In the West, we argue it from both sides, and that creates doubt, which means that maybe we’d just be all better off if they could come to a peace agreement. But in the Arab world, the conflict is universally painted as Good vs. Evil, and so even considering anything other than total victory is practically treasonous. But as their societies become more open, and dissent better tolerated, that will change. In the meantime, that every problem, closed, tyrannical societies, means that the Arab world will continue to fall behind Israel. Israel dominated the Arab armies in the last three Arab-Israeli wars, four if you count their battle with the Syrians in 1982. The gap has only gotten wider, which is why there haven’t been anymore Arab-Israeli wars. Israel has nothing to worry about as long as they remain a liberal democracy and the Arab states remain backward. And once the world is no longer reliant on oil, they’ll be left throwing spears at Israel instead of rockets. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/53 "2014-11-20T09:57:46Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Worse than the Holocaust? Because that would be the measure. > > It will be interesting to see what Allesan has to say about this thread. No thanks. These threads give me ulcers. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/54 "2014-11-20T14:02:53Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > No thanks. These threads give me ulcers. That’s because you know you’re doomed. It must really put a damper on Xmas. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/55 "2014-11-20T14:10:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And 400 million in the Arab world. Israel’s Jews won’t die without taking all their enemies with them. Nukes might not be a factor at all. I think it’s more likely to play out along the lines of what happened in Rhodesia/Zimbabwe (but probably somewhat more violent in the aftermath). ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/56 "2014-11-20T14:20:15Z")
I simply don’t understand the ‘doomed’ stance. By every actual measure, Israel is safer now than it has ever been in its entire history. Safer, more powerful, richer (and soon to be even richer), its enemies either converted into reluctant friends or neutralized by fighting amongst themselves. Powerful third parties are either friends or distracted by more pressing problems. Israel has plenty of problems to be sure, but they are not existential problems. Where is the grand Arab alliance of Egypt and Syria, that plausably threatened Israel with encirclement and extinction? Lost to history. Israel is ‘doomed’ in the same sense as every other state in the world is ‘doomed’ - by completely unforeseen circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/57 "2014-11-20T14:27:59Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > They have nukes, and won’t go alone. > [@adaher](#): > > And 400 million in the Arab world. Israel’s Jews won’t die without taking all their enemies with them. Which will accomplish…what? So they kill hundreds of millions of people, and in the future people don’t talk about Hitler anymore as the epitome of evil; they talk about the Israelis. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/58 "2014-11-20T14:57:47Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Which will accomplish…what? So they kill hundreds of millions of people, and in the future people don’t talk about Hitler anymore as the epitome of evil; they talk about the Israelis. What would you do if armed thugs started shooting into your home to kill your entire family? Shoot back knowing you’ll all die or say, “well, what the hell, we can’t stop you so feel free to rape and kill my family and I’ll leave you alone.” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/59 "2014-11-20T15:01:14Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > What would you do if armed thugs started shooting into your home to kill your entire family? Shoot back knowing you’ll all die or say, “well, what the hell, we can’t stop you so feel free to rape and kill my family and I’ll leave you alone.” Are you saying all 400 million Arabs are comparable to “armed thugs” in your home? They all deserve to die? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2014, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062/60 "2014-11-20T15:11:19Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Are you saying all 400 million Arabs are comparable to “armed thugs” in your home? They all deserve to die? No more than all Soviets and all Americans deserved mutually assured distruction during the Cold War. This is simply the logic of Nuclear Weapons at work … doesn’t matter if it is Israelis, Americans, Soviets, Pakistanis, Indians, now (soon) Iranians … Anyway, discussing the relative morality of armageddon-type events seems to me more than a little besides the point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/long-term-prospects-for-israel/705062.md?page=4)