Ahh 2 more for the road.
Cherry JD, et. al. “Pertussis immunization and characteristics related to first seizures in infants and children.” J Pediatr 1993 Jun;122(6):900-3.
Maybe the source of all of this fuss? :
Cherry JD, et. al. “The past, present, and future of pertussis. The role of adults in epidemiology and future control.” West J Med 1989 Mar;150(3):319-28.
Do you blame me brother? I’ve been dealing with this thread for wayyy too long now. I’ve had to wade through the propaganda, speculation and pure BS of most people. Also, I’ve had to take insults and ignorance in it’s purest form.
Last time I played the name game, somebody got his feelings hurt, but It’s all good, I’m not taking it personally.
As I said before, W.C. is not a disease to be taken lightly. However, I still feel that the evidence is cut right down the middle on this subject and will no doubt rage on.
[quote]
**
Your blistering comments motivated me to do several PubMed searches, especially for this Cherry study which you hold so highly. I have had a lot of difficulty in finding any studies in the past 15 years which do show a positive correlation. Can you point me in the right way? I am looking for an epidemiologic study with a large enough power to show a positive risk ratio that does not include 1 in the 95% confidence interval.
**
[quote]
Well now Ed, you’ve figured it out! You know why you can’t find any studies in the last 15-20 years? They haven’t done them. There’s tons of rhetoric on them, lots of lancet/jama/etc. articles, but no fact-based blind studies, and no tracking of suspected DPT injuries for more than about 1 month.
The only gonvermentally funded and accepted study was Dr. Cherry’s study(which I don’t necessarily “hold in high-regard”, it’s the only thing out there though). Dr. Cherry’s study was never released because of the 1/1750 numbers. In his own words, he was “disappointed”.
I have that study, the original, in it’s entirety, raw and un-edited. I think now it’s a good time for me to read it:). We were all pretty sure that it’d never be released, and then when this thread popped up, we(my absentee mother and I), realized that somebody had gotten the gall to publish them, surprisingly.
A few notes about the tracking of sequelae in this study…it wasn’t done. “Long-term” tracking in this instance was approximately 1 month. How many of the cases were affected in the long-term? we don’t really know. We always wanted to find out, but it’d be a gross ethical violation, so we left it alone.
Also, please, once again look my numbers(with the help of Doug), over. I’m about 95% sure that they’re accurate.
I don’t remember who, I think it was DocJ, said that febrile seizures carry with them no long-term sequelae.
Yes DPT makes febrile seizures more prevalent, but it also make afebrile seizures and other neurological effects more prevalent.
My seizure disorder is definitely afebrile in nature. I had a mild fever, not a raging fever. Many years and countless specialists later, they located the scarring in an MRI. It’s right on my temporal lobe, and it’s been pinpointed as the cause of the seizure disorder.
I’m glad you’ve conceded that there may be some pertussis immunity issues in adulthood. I see notes about that everywhere but in the Canadian articles that Doug cites and the “information” that Fyslee posts.
I read through Doug’s cite, and I’m particularly apalled.
Statements like this:
Since most of the above are all either contraindications themselves, or in fact, neurological side-effects, I find it particularly distasteful. Either the canucks are scared stiff of a Pertussis outbreak, or they’re blind.
Here’s a quote I posted before:
These numbers were pretty much put out to look bad. They excluded anyone who wasn’t in Status epilepticus as Not brain damaged.
Let’s make a deal Ed.
You admit that there might possibly be adverse reactions to DPT. You also admit that the vaccine might be less than spectacular in doing it’s job just a few years down the line.
Make me a deal. When you’ve graduated, if you go into a pediatric setting, promise me to accurately inform the parents. By accurately, I mean not telling them to sign the form, or breezing over the less lethal reactions, or completely lying and not telling the parents a darned thing about the vaccine you’re putting into the child. This includes not telling them “if you don’t do this, they can’t go to public school”, cause that’s a blatant lie.
Give them some time, maybe provide them with neutral info on the pros/cons. You might have a parent decide to talk it over with hubby and come in a day or two later for the innoculation, or, opt completely out of DPT. But don’t mislead the parents. It happened back in the day, and it still happens today. It’s illegal today, but it doesn’t seem to stop office staff.
So, if you decide to make this deal with me, you don’t have to change your opinion on vaccination, and neither do I, but the parents you deal with will have the chance to make their informed decision without subterfuge or trickery on the part of the MD(not that I’m accusing them of this, but as I mentioned at least twice so far, a friend of mine took his baby girl in for vaccinations and was not informed of the potential side effects of DPT).
If you do administer a shot to a child, and something does go wrong, and the mother calls you 12 hours later totally distraught because her baby is in the hospital because she was cyanotic and not breathing, or died of SIDS, please, pretty please don’t ever deny that there might be a corrolation to the shot.
My Pediatrician denied until the day we left her practice. She finally spoke frankly then.
Remember, actions that you have to take to ensure the safety and wellness when it comes to innoculation will not always be welcomed with open arms. Nothing in this world is perfect, especially medicine, but there has been considerable amounts of denial when it comes to this.
I just hope that there is some way we can have a new generation of MD’s who accept the imperfections of medicine, and the fact that medicine isn’t always right.
The world of medicine took a lot away from me. It altered my life in ways unimaginable to you or anyone else. Don’t ever think that I don’t respect MD’s completely. Sometimes they foul up, just like everyone else in this world. Either way, you’ve kept me alive and mostly seizure-free for all of my life.
Denial is the only thing I fault the medical world for. The fight that we had to fight for most of my young life to hear admissions of “possible vaccine-related damage” is unspeakable by itself. It was a very long journey and a much harder fight.
Just think it over Ed. What I ask of you right now is all I would ever expect from an MD. In fact, this is what I hope for in the future-honesty, openness, reality. I don’t expect the vaccine to get better, we’ve given it almost 60 years and they’ve made little progress(save DTaP). It’s going to have to come from young med students such as yourself.
You are the future, and it’s your duty to make it a safer future for our children. Mine, yours, DocJ’s, Doug’s.
THat’s all.
-Sam
P.S.-- and if you tell me to stick a red-hot poker in my eye, I won’t be offended 
Hi! Absent MaWm reporting in. Here I thought I was going to ride to GaWd’s rescue, but I find that he has voiced his opinions extremely eloquently. He needs no help from me.
I do want to give y’all a history lesson, and then reiterate a few points, however. Maybe this will bring some sanity to all the number swirling that we can all partake of.
Prior to the 1940’s there was no vaccination. There was also NO antibiotic to treat with. Whooping Cough would sweep through entire communities. Adults, teens, preschoolers and infants were all affected. The disease was/is a nasty one, especially in intensity and duration. Most children came through the disease with no sequelae. The others, their bodies weakened by the disease, contracted ear infections. Without antibiotics to treat these ear infections, this often progressed to encephalitis. The encephalitis often progressed to brain damage. Some, especially infants, died. Today, Pertussis can be treated prophylacticly with erythromiacin. There are antibiotics to treat the sequelae, medications to help with the cough and oxygen during the paroxysms. It’s still a nasty disease, but one that does not kill or maim, unless there is negligence involved.
In the 1940’s a crude brew of a vaccine was developed. Almost immediately there were signs that some children were devastated. There were paper written, the fact that there were sequelae to the vaccine was ACCEPTED.
The vaccine reactions that were documented were ones that rendered the child unable to make any but the most primitive of their milestones. Many never walked or talked. Most suffered on-going seizure disorder. All were Learning Disabled of the worst kind. There was no gray or middle area. Either you were a veggie, or you won’t hurt at all.
In 1977 my son was presented at his pediatrician’s office for a Well Baby check up. He was fine. He was given a DPT shot, among other vaccines and sent home. That night he was up (as was I) for 12 hours. His leg at the injection site was extremely swollen and so painful that even the touch of cloth (i.e. his pjs) caused acute discomfort. He screamed that night…all through the night. An advice nurse was called, more than once. I was told that this was a perfectly natural reaction.
I kept putting off his next shot with various excuses. I did not want him to have a shot that made him that uncomfortable. All of my maternal instincts were screaming “NO” at me. I finally gave in, however, when he was 18 months old. Within 8 hours, my son was in the ER in status seizure.
I was told variously that the seizures were caused by his very slight fever, that it was a “familial” type, etc. I kept repeating that it was a vaccine (I didn’t know which one…but I knew when the mess had started).
My son made all his major milestones. I was told over and over how lucky I was “that this was not a vaccine reaction” because if it were, this would not be the case. At this point, he was not having seizures that we were seeing.
He began having seizures again around his 8th birthday. We began testing him. In 1985 I saw a 20/20 program dealing with vaccine reactions. Until then, I thought we were alone. I became very active in Dissatisfied Parents Together (DPT) and continued to research this situation. The information I found out about the vaccine was appalling.
Old vaccine is commonly used, and it concentrates with time, the standard Protective Units could vary from 7PKUs to 32. Dog food is better regulated. Don’t take my word on this…look it up.
if you rule out bad lots of medication/contraindicated cases which received the medicine anyway, and other anomalies, it quickly fades near to noise.
Why would you rule these things out? They are STILL vaccine reactions!
I took my son to specialists, even as we began intensive Occupational and Rehabilitative therapy. They poked, prodded, examined, re-examined, photographed, Xrayed, EEG’d,MRI’d, gene-typed and it all was very extensive. At the end, we were given a diagnosis of post-vaccination encephalitis with a scar on his temporal lobe leading to a mixed bag of seizure disorders and learning disabilities.
Fortunately, he was put on anti-seizure drugs, which have kept him mostly seizure free.
I’m willing to bet that with the incidence of epilepsy being so high combined with a high vaccination rate, you get quite a few unhappy coincidences.
What ever happened to “if you hear hoof beats, think of horses”? Take a healthy kid, with a clean genetic history, give him a neurotoxin; the child has a seizure…Coincidence? First, Doctor…do no harm. But if you do, please own up to it.
"Seizures associated with DTP vaccine have similar clinical characteristics as febrile seizures, and persistent crying is initiated by painful local reactions. Vaccine endotoxin is a cause of febrile DTP vaccine reactions. We found no evidence that DTP vaccine Pertussis toxin plays a role in severe DTP vaccine reactions.
While I was president of the Ca. DPT group, I was given a copy of the oft-quoted here Cherry/FDA/UCLA study. The first thing that struck me is that there was NO follow-up on these children, past 30-60 days post event. I contacted Cherry, the FDA and UCLA. I wanted our group to simply attempt to locate these children and find out what their current state of health and development was. Since this would have been a breach in confidentiality, I was turned down. Suffice it to say, therefore, that NONE of these children were ever contacted after the 30-60 day time frame. ERGO: don’t tell me that there is no long-lasting sequelae, say rather, we DON’T know! Not all, as we have proved, will be life long invalids, but will continue in their life spans with disabilities that need to be coped with in the schools and in the social security realm. There are…as always, shades of gray. Wonder where all the LD’s the schools are coping with are coming from? Could this be an answer? Maybe…no one knows. How about MS, diabetes, etc. in adults? Again, no one knows. And truely, I don’t think all societies ills can be blamed on vaccine, but I do accept that…WE DON’T KNOW!!!
I would be the last person to accuse a doctor of any vast conspiracy. I will say, however, that the drug companies are out there to MAKE MONEY. They sell to the doctors. The med schools get research money from the drug companies. It’s a dance with set steps. Be wary. Not all medicine is good medicine. There are pay-offs, just like there is in life.
everyone who develops epilepsy within a year after a DPT is on a class-action lawsuit vs. Smith-Cline-DrugCompanyOfTheHour.
While I realize that this statement was written tongue-in-cheek, I feel the need to comment on it. As has been pointed out, there are strict guidelines in which a vaccine reaction will be considered. And yes, one of these is a time constraint of 72 hours. Most glaring of all, let me point out to you that the individual drug companies are no longer liable. The Children’s National Vaccine Act put a tax on each immunization and that is how we pay out to our damaged and killed children. It’s not an automatic fund that is accessed, but rather the child and family must go through a Federal court proceeding.
This is getting way too long, but the last thing I wanted to add, was that it’s a shame that the issues are the same as they were in the mid 70’s. Nothing has really changed. We count on our MD’s to protect us against us and our children, but they don’t always know the full story. Or they buy into the party line that government, FDA…someone is taking care of us.
I do know that given that the vaccine has a set reaction rate, and that the vaccine’s success rate is in full question, I chose, and would do so again (since nothing has changed) NOT to give my children the vaccine.
[QUOTE]
**
If you do administer a shot to a child, and something does go wrong, and the mother calls you 12 hours later totally distraught because her baby is in the hospital because she was cyanotic and not breathing, or died of SIDS, please, pretty please don’t ever deny that there might be a corrolation to the shot.**
Go Sam! I pray that they listen to you.
Hi! Absent MaWm reporting in. Here I thought I was going to ride to GaWd’s rescue, but I find that he has voiced his opinions extremely eloquently. He needs no help from me.
I do want to give y’all a history lesson, and then reiterate a few points, however. Maybe this will bring some sanity to all the number swirling that we can all partake of.
Prior to the 1940’s there was no vaccination. There was also NO antibiotic to treat with. Whooping Cough would sweep through entire communities. Adults, teens, preschoolers and infants were all affected. The disease was/is a nasty one, especially in intensity and duration. Most children came through the disease with no sequelae. The others, their bodies weakened by the disease, contracted ear infections. Without antibiotics to treat these ear infections, this often progressed to encephalitis. The encephalitis often progressed to brain damage. Some, especially infants, died. Today, Pertussis can be treated prophylacticly with erythromiacin. There are antibiotics to treat the sequelae, medications to help with the cough and oxygen during the paroxysms. It’s still a nasty disease, but one that does not kill or maim, unless there is negligence involved.
In the 1940’s a crude brew of a vaccine was developed. Almost immediately there were signs that some children were devastated. There were paper written, the fact that there were sequelae to the vaccine was ACCEPTED.
The vaccine reactions that were documented were ones that rendered the child unable to make any but the most primitive of their milestones. Many never walked or talked. Most suffered on-going seizure disorder. All were Learning Disabled of the worst kind. There was no gray or middle area. Either you were a veggie, or you won’t hurt at all.
In 1977 my son was presented at his pediatrician’s office for a Well Baby check up. He was fine. He was given a DPT shot, among other vaccines and sent home. That night he was up (as was I) for 12 hours. His leg at the injection site was extremely swollen and so painful that even the touch of cloth (i.e. his pjs) caused acute discomfort. He screamed that night…all through the night. An advice nurse was called, more than once. I was told that this was a perfectly natural reaction.
I kept putting off his next shot with various excuses. I did not want him to have a shot that made him that uncomfortable. All of my maternal instincts were screaming “NO” at me. I finally gave in, however, when he was 18 months old. Within 8 hours, my son was in the ER in status seizure.
I was told variously that the seizures were caused by his very slight fever, that it was a “familial” type, etc. I kept repeating that it was a vaccine (I didn’t know which one…but I knew when the mess had started).
My son made all his major milestones. I was told over and over how lucky I was “that this was not a vaccine reaction” because if it were, this would not be the case. At this point, he was not having seizures that we were seeing.
He began having seizures again around his 8th birthday. We began testing him. In 1985 I saw a 20/20 program dealing with vaccine reactions. Until then, I thought we were alone. I became very active in Dissatisfied Parents Together (DPT) and continued to research this situation. The information I found out about the vaccine was appalling.
Old vaccine is commonly used, and it concentrates with time, the standard Protective Units could vary from 7PKUs to 32. Dog food is better regulated. Don’t take my word on this…look it up.
if you rule out bad lots of medication/contraindicated cases which received the medicine anyway, and other anomalies, it quickly fades near to noise.
Why would you rule these things out? They are STILL vaccine reactions!
I took my son to specialists, even as we began intensive Occupational and Rehabilitative therapy. They poked, prodded, examined, re-examined, photographed, Xrayed, EEG’d,MRI’d, gene-typed and it all was very extensive. At the end, we were given a diagnosis of post-vaccination encephalitis with a scar on his temporal lobe leading to a mixed bag of seizure disorders and learning disabilities.
Fortunately, he was put on anti-seizure drugs, which have kept him mostly seizure free.
I’m willing to bet that with the incidence of epilepsy being so high combined with a high vaccination rate, you get quite a few unhappy coincidences.
What ever happened to “if you hear hoof beats, think of horses”? Take a healthy kid, with a clean genetic history, give him a neurotoxin; the child has a seizure…Coincidence? First, Doctor…do no harm. But if you do, please own up to it.
"Seizures associated with DTP vaccine have similar clinical characteristics as febrile seizures, and persistent crying is initiated by painful local reactions. Vaccine endotoxin is a cause of febrile DTP vaccine reactions. We found no evidence that DTP vaccine Pertussis toxin plays a role in severe DTP vaccine reactions.
While I was president of the Ca. DPT group, I was given a copy of the oft-quoted here Cherry/FDA/UCLA study. The first thing that struck me is that there was NO follow-up on these children, past 30-60 days post event. I contacted Cherry, the FDA and UCLA. I wanted our group to simply attempt to locate these children and find out what their current state of health and development was. Since this would have been a breach in confidentiality, I was turned down. Suffice it to say, therefore, that NONE of these children were ever contacted after the 30-60 day time frame. ERGO: don’t tell me that there is no long-lasting sequelae, say rather, we DON’T know! Not all, as we have proved, will be life long invalids, but will continue in their life spans with disabilities that need to be coped with in the schools and in the social security realm. There are…as always, shades of gray. Wonder where all the LD’s the schools are coping with are coming from? Could this be an answer? Maybe…no one knows. How about MS, diabetes, etc. in adults? Again, no one knows. And truely, I don’t think all societies ills can be blamed on vaccine, but I do accept that…WE DON’T KNOW!!!
I would be the last person to accuse a doctor of any vast conspiracy. I will say, however, that the drug companies are out there to MAKE MONEY. They sell to the doctors. The med schools get research money from the drug companies. It’s a dance with set steps. Be wary. Not all medicine is good medicine. There are pay-offs, just like there is in life.
everyone who develops epilepsy within a year after a DPT is on a class-action lawsuit vs. Smith-Cline-DrugCompanyOfTheHour.
While I realize that this statement was written tongue-in-cheek, I feel the need to comment on it. As has been pointed out, there are strict guidelines in which a vaccine reaction will be considered. And yes, one of these is a time constraint of 72 hours. Most glaring of all, let me point out to you that the individual drug companies are no longer liable. The Children’s National Vaccine Act put a tax on each immunization and that is how we pay out to our damaged and killed children. It’s not an automatic fund that is accessed, but rather the child and family must go through a Federal court proceeding.
This is getting way too long, but the last thing I wanted to add, was that it’s a shame that the issues are the same as they were in the mid 70’s. Nothing has really changed. We count on our MD’s to protect us against us and our children, but they don’t always know the full story. Or they buy into the party line that government, FDA…someone is taking care of us.
I do know that given that the vaccine has a set reaction rate, and that the vaccine’s success rate is in full question, I chose, and would do so again (since nothing has changed) NOT to give my children the vaccine.
[QUOTE]
**
If you do administer a shot to a child, and something does go wrong, and the mother calls you 12 hours later totally distraught because her baby is in the hospital because she was cyanotic and not breathing, or died of SIDS, please, pretty please don’t ever deny that there might be a corrolation to the shot.**
Go Sam! I pray that they listen to you.
It is still a little hard for me to follow. Dzdemona was the one who said “96% of all proven whooping cough victims are UP TO DATE on their vaccines”, but I can’t find a cite for that, so I can’t really argue with it.
Even if it is true, there is evidence that the disease is less severe for those who have been vaccinated.
From the misc.kids FAQ I linked to earlier:
Even if 96% of cases are in vaccinated people, that doesn’t help you if you are not vaccinated. Sure you can get pertussis if you are vaccinated, but you are more likely to have a mild case. This is especially true if pertussis continues to develop erythromicin resistance (see misc.kids FAQ.)
So, you are correct, I’m not following you. You seem to be saying that it is OK that a certain number of people get pertussis, because most of them are vaccinated. The point is, you are arguing that fewer people should be vaccinated, and your argument evaporates. It makes no sense to me - could you explain it again from start to finish and use small words so I’m sure to understand?
Now I’m pretty sure it is you who is doing the misunderstanding.
You made up a number of 1/10,000,000 as the chance of a child under 10 getting pertussis in the US, I corrected your math using your estimates and gave a chance of 1/7754 per year for a child to get pertussis. I made no mention of vaccines or no - given the above ‘effectiveness’ ratings for vaccines, I’d find it hard to believe that you are not more likely to get pertussis if you are not vaccinated.
What has this got to do with shots? You are now saying it is more likely to get pertussis, which is exactly counter to the point you were trying to make in the first place with your fantasy of 1/10,000,000 chance of getting pertussis!
Huh? You are arguing that you can increase the per-capita incidence of pertussis? Wasn’t your point that it is rare enough that it is not worth vaccinating against? Again, I’m at a loss to understand the argument.
Doug, I could go line-by-line, through your post. I won’t. I’ve tried to make you understand. You ignore my points.
My 1/10,ooo,ooo number was just as tongue-in-cheek as everyone else’s posts around here. Get over it, stop glossing on it.
Go to the CDC’s website and look up the number of people who are fully vaccinated and have a pertussis illness.
There is DEFINITELY zero proof of reduced illness strength in immunized adults. If it gets you, and you’re not immune, it’s gonna get you like it’d get any other unvaccinated person. YOu feel differently? find me the data.
Looks like I misread your number there. That’s all. Calm down Douggie. Of course, you didn’t read what I said well enough to see what I did. Read it again, you’ll see my mistake.
As far as your apparent inability to understand what I’m saying in regards to removing statistics of pertussis in children who are 10 and under(actually should be adjusted for 7 and under), think about it for a second. If there are 1000 cases of pertussis in the 20 and under group, and 50% is in a group of vaccinatable children, don’t you think numbers will be queered? There’s no protection for anyone over that age.
Also worth noting, I haven’t said it shouldn’t be vaccinated against because “it’s such a rare disease”. What I have said is that it is indeed a rare disease with an innoculation that causes too much damage for me to consider giving to a loved one. I also have said that my entire point is that MD’s and parents should have the knowledge to make a decision on their own. That didn’t happen yesterday, and it’s not happening today.
You’ll certainly turn up a math error on my part occasionally. What truly counts is that you look at the facts. I don’t mean go off on some statistics kick, I mean look at the cold, hard facts(of course I expect you to ask “what facts?”).
If the pertussis rate of infection is one per 7754 and the vaccine rate of incidence is one per 1750, is the vaccine really safe? Throwing out rhetorical articles posted by anti-vax gurus(people that presume a 1/2,000,000 number for reactivity), and taking in the studies, do you want your child immunized?
If the answer is yes, fine. Debate is over with you. If the answer is no, then we have something to talk about. But I’m certainly not going to sit around all day, battling semantics with you and glossing over my much admitted math errors. It’s just not worth my time Doug.
-Sam
Deputy GaWD:
How’s things? I hope you’ve had a nice day. It rained like crazy here today.
Anyhoo,
I went back and re-read some of the studies. Some of the computer based ones have years-long follow up. (Vaccine Safety Datalink project).
A few points :
I don’t understand your definition of sequelae. I believe you have squabbled about this with Student-DoctorJ before – why is a month-long follow-up not appropriate for evaluating long-term risk for epilepsy/encephalopathy/seizures? If the child has remained seizure free for one month and has no EEG changes, then there is no reason to suspect that if he develops epilepsy at a later date it is tied to the DPT. Again, 3% of the population is epileptic, 10% have had seizures. There is no experiment that you can design to take two “pre-epileptic” people that have not had a seizure and give one DPT and keep the other as control, then assess risks of lifetime epilepsy between the two.
You continually state the “fact” that pertussis vaccine may not protect into adulthood. Well and good, I’ve already conceded that this may be true. We don’t really care about adult pertussis, however, which is a much milder disease than childhood pertussis. The vaccine is doing a good job at protection in youth, though – just look at the dramatic decline in pertussis diagnosis and death since vaccination began.
Next, you stated that febrile seizures will not lead to any long-term deficit. Incorrect. Any seizure, if long enough or severe enough will lead to a scar in the brain and may cause a focus of epilepsy (and EEG changes). I realize this doesn’t really help my argument, but we are just discussing here. To paraphrase the first Cherry citation I gave yesterday, the risk of long-term neurologic damage is correlated with the first insult, no matter what causes it. It looks to me like the pertussis vaccine does not convey any additional risk of encephalopathy beyond that conveyed by slightly increased risk for febrile seizures. But, we are not talking of febrile seizures here.
I think the root of all problems here is from the Popper clause - proof by induction in science doesn’t quite work. While we MDs use clinical studies to show us what is the most efficacious therapy, a study no matter how powerful cannot rule out bad reactions. As Popper said, if we look at 100 white swans, we can state that the next swan will probably be white, but we cannot state that it will not be black. The science of medicine is usually staying between the proverbial rock and hard place – the drugs may stave off disaster but may give new disasters on the other hand. Unfortunately, in medicine and public health, we always have to avoid the bigger of the disasters. Judging from the impact of pertussis on humanity in the past, the disaster of worldwide pertussis outbreaks are much larger than the disaster of a fleeting risk of encephalopathy from vaccine.
I apologize for having abandoned this thread. I realized that I’m on summer break, and as such, I don’t have any desire to sort out the biostatistical train wreck it has become.
I defer to edwino, who seems to have the debate under control. Enjoy.
Student-Dr. J (if you insist )
It was a good day, thanks.
I’m not here to point fingers, but I believe DocJ is the one that said a seizure wouldn’t lead to permanent sequelae. I am very clear about what can and will damage a very young brain, and I stated that in the beginning of the debate.
I’m not going to argue any side anymore Ed, I’m rather tired of it.
But my last request is that you go over what I wrote to you, specifically, last night. That’s all.
I could care less about whether a German study said it wasn’t a dangerous vaccine, or how many people in America catch Pertussis as adults either.
I can’t change your mind, I can’t change the drugmakers’ polisies, and I can’t change the fact that I am a vaccine damaged child. I just want you to understand where the parents are coming from, and be able to give them the straight dope on Pertussis. Follow the law, go over the facts as they are printed on the vaccine bottle at least, but let the parents make their decision informed(“informed” is obviously going to be a term that is questionable, so I’ll leave it open).
THat’s it. I don’t really have the time, nor the energy to try and run around and dig up numbers, definitions, anecdotes and statistics every day, especially about something that is a very emotional subject in my family. I don’t have the time to read 1000 pages of Cherry’s study, and I really have no wish to keep this debate open.
It’s been a blast…
-Sam
P.S.- please don’t think that I am beaten, I’m just worn out from trying to defend my post single-handedly. I suppose y’all can consider it a win, but one day the subject will come up again, and I will be right there to defend the other side of the coin, just not today.
**why is a month-long follow-up not appropriate for evaluating long-term risk for epilepsy/encephalopathy/seizures? If the child has remained seizure free for one month and has no EEG changes, then there is no reason to suspect that if he develops epilepsy at a later date it is tied to the DPT. **
I’ll try to explain this to you, but I suspect that you still won’t get it. If 100 children who received the vaccine (don’t trip…I’m just making up that number for the sake of illustration) have a significant neurological event, and 30 days later test negative for sequelae, but 5 years later have significant neurological deficit, should we just assume that there is no link between the two? Do we assume that we simply tapped into some vast coincidental pool? Or should we take a look and see what the mechanism is here? (I also must interject here that EEGs were not given to these study children at the 30-60 day check-up. Instead, they were asking parents what they had observed in their children’s lives…i.e. More seizure, appetite and illness,etc. They were possible not the best reporters/observers of such subjective symptoms.)
If I eat Kentucky Fried Chicken every day for a month, but have a normal EKG, and then 5 years later show heart disease, could there possibly be a link?
**
You continually state the “fact” that pertussis vaccine may not protect into adulthood. Well and good, I’ve already conceded that this may be true.**
Whew! You had me worried there.
**
We don’t really care about adult pertussis, however, which is a much milder disease than childhood pertussis.**
Though I think we can all admit that the adults pass on the disease as readily as someone’s unvaccinated child, huh?
** The vaccine is doing a good job at protection in youth, though – just look at the dramatic decline in pertussis diagnosis and death since vaccination began.**
Let’s go back to the antibiotics that have helped quell the death and sequelae, OK? I know you med guys HATE it when it’s mentioned, but health departments; antibiotics and the like have reduced the probability of disease.
** the risk of long-term neurologic damage is correlated with the first insult, no matter what causes it.**
And I guess it doesn’t matter what does kick it off then. We’ll just assume that these infants were likely to become veggies anyway. Kicked off by a vaccine that isn’t necessarily protective, oh, well.
** It looks to me like the pertussis vaccine does not convey any additional risk of encephalopathy beyond that conveyed by slightly increased risk for febrile seizures. **
BS. Read your own studies
** the drugs may stave off disaster but may give new disasters on the other hand.**
And here lies the crux of the entire debate. Do we just ignore the new disasters created? Or do we try to minimize them? Do we continue to give a vaccine that wrecks havoc on some (disputed) portion of the population?
I say our number one priority still needs to be a safer vaccine, while informing parents what the reaction rate is for a vaccine that may not be extremely effective. Do you have an argument here?
** Unfortunately, in medicine and public health, we always have to avoid the bigger of the disasters. Judging from the impact of pertussis on humanity in the past, the disaster of worldwide pertussis outbreaks are much larger than the disaster of a fleeting risk of encephalopathy from vaccine.**
Do you ignore the disaster to the families who are effected at the same time? And I say that while choking on the term “fleeting” risk.
Ok, boys, I understand that this is a debate, and what you are saying here doesn’t necessarily translate to your private practices. But I’m hoping and praying that in real life, not on a message board, that you don’t view your patients as statistics. I hope you don’t put your arm around the distraught mom whose child has just been rendered a neurological waste zone by a vaccine and tell them:
2)that their children were going to be veggies anyhow
3)that if they reacted to the vaccine, the disease woulda been MUCH worse
4)that you withheld information from them because they weren’t capable of making up their minds
I think this thread is ready to die. I suspect that there are maybe 5 people reading it.
Antibiotics cannot cause a decrease in disease incidence. They can decrease sequelae, etc. A disease is most contaigous in its prodromal or early phase. Usually, by the time the disease is recognized, it could have already spread. Ergo, in my mind, vaccine=decrease in disease incidence.
If you ignore all the post-marketing research done (see my previous citations), then I will accept the fact that if a child seizes at 8 hrs post vaccine and then develops a seizure disorder at 5 years post vaccine, there may be a correlation. However, it is impossible to show this. For example :
3% will become epileptic. Nobody is really sure how epilepsy starts, but lets assume for the sake of argument that you need a initial insult, like a febrile seizure. Next, take 10000 kids (if you could identify them), give 5000 the vaccine. Let’s say 15 (3%) of them run fevers, have a seizure, then 5 years later develop epilepsy. The other 5000 do not get a vaccine, but in the next year 15 of them run fevers from flu or strep throat, have a seizure, then 5 years later develop epilepsy. I’ve accepted that DPT can lead to febrile seizures. All studies that have compared post-DPT seizure kids to normal febrile seizure kids have shown no vaccine specific component of risk of epilepsy later on. See the Cherry quote I have given twice – something about an initial seizure conveys risk, but there is no specific vaccine component added.
OK, so this thread may die. Hopefully. I’ve enjoyed talking to you guys. As a medical professional, I will recommend DPT. I will mention that it will increase risk for febrile seizure, and I will tell them that this can increase risk for later neurologic damage. Just like strep throat or flu can. I see no reason, however, to say that the vaccine conveys a special risk for encephalopathy, or for that matter epilepsy, SIDS, dyslexia, multiple sclerosis, asthma, clinical depression, blindness, tennis elbow, housemaid’s knee, swine flu,or shingles.
Measles Cases Remain At Record Low, Most Imported From Other Countries
June 30, 2000
ATLANTA (AP) - The number of measles cases in the United States remained at
a record low at 100 last year, with most of the cases coming from other
countries, the government reported Thursday.
“We have achieved a successful vaccination policy that has caused measles
to not be endemic anymore in the United States,” said Dr. Fabio Lievano of
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
State and local health departments reported 100 U.S. measles cases in 1999
Of last year’s cases, at least 33 were contracted in foreign countries and
33 were linked to viruses that entered the United States from abroad, the
CDC said. The sources of the 34 others could not be determined.
A recent national survey indicated that 93 percent of Americans 6 and older
have antibodies to measles because they have been vaccinated.
The CDC estimates that 40 million cases are reported in the world each year
and about 800,000 children die annually from measles.
Just a clarifying note regarding the next to the last sentence: Some of the older people in the survey possibly have antibodies because they caught measles before vaccination was available.
Immunisation campaign a success: report
AAP –
Australia’s intense immunisation campaign appears to be working, with cases
of vaccine-preventable diseases falling to their lowest level in seven
years.
In March 2000, the number of notifications for diseases such as mumps,
measles and pertussis (whooping cough) dropped to 213 from almost 2,500 in
January 1993.
The fall was mainly due to a continuing decline in whooping cough cases, the
latest issue of the Communicable Diseases Intelligence bulletin said.
There were 178 pertussis notifications in March 2000, the fewest since June
1993.
“Most pertussis cases occurred in the 10-14 year age group,” the bulletin
said.
There were no notifications of diptheria or poliomyelitis in the month.
One case of tetanus - a 76-year-old woman from New South Wales - was
reported, as were 16 cases of mumps, one more than in February.
“Most mumps cases occurred in the 20-24 year age group (44 per cent) and the
cases were evenly distributed between gender,” the bulletin said.
There were nine cases of measles in March 2000, down three from February and
66 fewer than a year ago.
The bulletin said two cases were in the under five age group and the overall
male to female ratio was two to one.
Rubella notifications also fell in March to eight from 17 in February and 29
a year ago.
A recent government initiative which tied immunisation to childcare rebates
pushed Australia’s vaccination rate for children under four-years-old over
90 per cent.
The Associated Press
Sunday, 18 June 2000
BANGUI, Central African Republic (June 17, 2000 5:27 p.m. EDT
http://www.nandotimes.com) - Measles has killed at least 300 people,
mostly children, in this impoverished country in the last month, the
Health Ministry said Saturday.
More than 2,000 people have been infected, and the disease was
spreading, ministry official Gerard Grezengue said.
In one of the worst-affected areas, at least 90 people have died in the
northern village of Oudda-Djalle, whose population numbers just 2,000.
Health officials blamed a lack of resources in Central African Republic,
one of the world’s poorest countries, saying there had been no
systematic vaccination for the disease since 1992.
The government planned a new vaccination campaign next month with the
help of the World Health Organization.
Measles, which can cause deadly pneumonia and swelling of the brain, is
especially dangerous in infants and young children. Pregnant women are
also at risk from the disease, which can induce early labor or
miscarriage.
Information from Dr. Willem Betz in Belgium, regarding the Dutch measles epidemic:
"I just received the update on the figures in the small religious community in Holland.
number of cases 2811
deaths: 3
serious complications admitted to hospital: 64
serious complications treated at home: 418
There are no data available on permanent health damage.
"Those figures are statistically normal:
1 death for a 1000 cases
1/50 hospital admission
1/5 complications
"Those averages count only for a population that is well fed and otherwise healthy.
"The damage is much higher in underdeveloped countries.
"This reminds me of an old joke:
"There was this big flood, people were being evacuated with rowing boats. They wanted to take John on board but he refused. He said: go on and save other people first, I have confidence in the Lord, he will save me.
The water rises to his shoulders. Next comes a motor boat, but he says again the same, go and save others first.
The water rises to his lips, comes a helicopter, he says again: first take care of the others, the Lord will save me.
Blub blub, he drowns.
Arriving at heavens gate, he complains: how is it possible that you allowed a godfearing devout person as me to die? I had full confidence that the Lord should have saved me.
Saint Peter cried out: you stupid #*@§ ! I sent you a rowing boat, a motor boat, a helicopter, were they not good enough for you?
WB
Why did God give us brains?
The Dutch measles drama is reported in Scientific American:
http://www.sciam.com/2000/0300issue/0300infocus.html
an excellent article that should make us all think.
Measels out break in Netherlands: Note the chart of Vaccinated/unvaccinated.
Also, notice that there were three deaths associated … with other
complications…
http://www.cdc.gov/epo/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4914a2.htm
“1999 Was Measles-Free Year in State”
Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com) (02/23/00) P. B3
The state of Maryland reported no measles cases in 1999, the
first time in state history that no cases were reported in a
year. The state Department of Health and Mental Hygiene called
the figure a part of the public health success story, when 400
cases of measles were reported as recently as 1990. Health
Secretary Georges C. Benjamin attributed the measles-free year to
the success of the vaccination program and the efficacy of
available vaccines.
NIIN is a partnership among the American Academy of Pediatrics, the
Infectious Disease Society of America, the Pediatric Infectious Disease
Society, and the American Nursing Association. One primary goal is to
monitor media coverage of vaccines and ensure that physicians are armed
with the necessary information to respond to inaccurate reports and
to provide information needed to deal with antivaccine messages. At no
cost, the NIIN is sending out immunization news briefs every Monday,
Wednesday and Friday via email to anyone who wants to subscribe.
http://www.idsociety.org/vaccine/index.html
from Fred Welch
Another link:
http://www.cdc.gov/nip/vacsafe/vaccinesafety/research/Max%20Graph.htm
Gates Children’s Vaccine Program and
Partners Fight Misinformation on Web
February 24, 2000
SEATTLE, Feb. 23 /PRNewswire/ via NewsEdge
Corporation -
Four science-based vaccine websites today
announced the launch of a new “web ring” called
the Allied Vaccine Group (www.vaccine.org). The
ring was created to make it easier to access
reliable, independent, science-based information
about vaccines and immunization. Users can find
the latest vaccine news along with specialized
information for adults, teenagers, parents,
medical practitioners, researchers, journalists
and policymakers.
Members of the Allied Vaccine Group include:
The Bill and Melinda Gates Children’s Vaccine
Program at PATH
The International Vaccine Institute in Seoul,
Korea
The National Network for Immunization
Information and
The Vaccine Page
Web rings are loose affiliations of like-minded
websites. Each of the Allied Vaccine Group
member sites is dedicated to presenting valid
scientific information about vaccines and
vaccination. Each maintains its own editorial
policies and is independent of editorial influence
from pharmaceutical companies, governments, or
multi-lateral agencies.
Other sites are expected to join the Group soon.
The Allied Vaccine Group was created in
response to the recent proliferation of websites
disseminating rumors and speculation that do not
pass scientific review. This unreliable information
can be confusing, and may lead parents to
refuse or delay immunizations that could save
their child’s life and prevent local epidemics.
The Allied Vaccine Group members all “believe
that immunization saves the lives of millions of
children and adults every year. We understand
that not all vaccines are equally effective and
that no vaccine is free of side effects. And we
believe that if the scientific evidence shows any
vaccine to be dangerous, the public should be
alerted to that danger. But on balance, we
believe that the benefits of immunization far
outweigh their risks.”
The Bill and Melinda Gates Children’s Vaccine
Program at PATH was inaugurated in December
1998 with a mission to improve childhood
immunization worldwide. PATH is an international,
nonprofit organization dedicated to improving
health. Founded in 1977, PATH has managed 950
projects in over 100 countries.