# Looks like a bad week for the Gulf Coast - NHC predicting two hurricanes making landfall early Wednesday morning **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [August 21, 2020, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663 "2020-08-21T13:05:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/1 "2020-08-21T13:05:26Z")
> **[Two Gulf hurricanes at the same time? Tropical Storms Laura, Marco have formed](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/21/florida-gulf-hurricanes-nhc-forecasts-two-tropical-depressions/3406310001/)** > > The National Hurricane Center is forecasting for two tropical systems to reach hurricane strength, with both sharing the Gulf of Mexico. The cones for both have them reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday night. [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics\_at3.shtml?start#contents](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents) [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics\_at4.shtml?start#contents](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents) ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/2 "2020-08-21T15:53:50Z")
The models should be taking the [Fujiwara Effect](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect) into account, but I’m not seeing the counterclockwise hurricane center rotation in any of the forecasted paths. [ECMWF](https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0) still has TD 14 being small at landfall. Though quite intense 24 hours prior, mid-Gulf. I’m sure it will change with more data. I had thought there was predicted to be still a lot of wind shear mid-Gulf, which would inhibit development? [Sea surface temps](https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif) are around 30 C, which otherwise would allow quick development. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/3 "2020-08-21T17:46:44Z")
Guess who had a nice, quiet, private AirBnB reserved for next week in Gulf Shores? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/4 "2020-08-21T21:26:14Z")
@Munch: Oops. @Gray_Ghost: Per the 11am Fri NHC data, the two storms’ arrival times at the gulf coast is about 24-36 hours apart. Which is far enough apart to make the effect less prominent. But rest assured “Fujiwahara” will be the hot new vocabulary word of the week for everyone. Funny enough about an hour ago I was yakking on the phone with a fellow pilot who’s lived in Miami for years but had moved away a few months ago. He mentioned having seen the converging wind fields near New Orleans. At which point I explained Fujiwahara to him and predicted it’ll be all over the airwaves & social media the next few days. So I get off the phone & open this thread. What’s the 2nd post about? Fujiwahara. Heh ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/5 "2020-08-21T21:41:41Z")
Apparently, in the time since I started this thread, Laura has slowed down and what is expected to be Marco has sped up. The current cones now have the former making landfall on Wednesday afternoon and the latter on Tuesday afternoon. ETA: I just noticed something interesting about next year’s names. If they get down past “O”, there will be Peter and Rose. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/6 "2020-08-21T22:52:11Z")
I did hear on the Weather Channel that the eastern hurricane is at much lower risk of causing damage, because it’s predicted to go over Hispaniola and Cuba, which both have mountains which could cause the storm to drastically decrease in severity. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/7 "2020-08-22T15:49:44Z")
The 11am Sat NHC update for Marco has the most interesting [wind field graphic](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145755.shtml?tswind120#contents) I think I’ve ever seen. Note I’m not sure if this link will point to the 11am graphic forever, or will always point to the most current graphic. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/8 "2020-08-22T15:55:42Z")
So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/9 "2020-08-22T16:03:52Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The 11am Sat NHC update for Marco has the most interesting [wind field graphic](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145755.shtml?tswind120#contents) I think I’ve ever seen. With Laura currently projected to hit around Grand Isle, Louisiana, their wind field graphics have merged. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/10 "2020-08-22T16:27:59Z")
So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/11 "2020-08-22T02:31:15Z")
Because it’s 2020, two hurricanes may soon hit the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously. > **[Gulf Coast on alert as two tropical systems could threaten at the same time |...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/21/weather/atlantic-tropical-development-forecast-friday/index.html)** > > Two tropical systems expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by early next week could simultaneously become hurricanes in an unprecedented event. > **[In a first, two hurricanes could soon occupy the Gulf of Mexico simultaneously](https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/21/two-hurricanes-gulf-mexico/)** > > Simultaneous Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, something that's never been observed in tropical weather history, could occur on Monday. My extended family is in Houston. One of the two storms is heading right for them. 😟 ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/12 "2020-08-22T03:05:00Z")
The Bad News signs along the freeways here (Houston area) are currently switching among “COVID-19 Condition Red”, “Storm forming in Gulf - be prepared”, and an Amber alert for some jamoke driving a white Chevy pickup. I’m expecting one concerning a giant meteor any day now. To be serious, a significant amount of wind shear near the coast means that the one aimed at Houston is likely to be a fairly weak system when it makes landfall. As long as it doesn’t stall out over the city we should be…more or less OK. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/14 "2020-08-22T05:03:12Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > The Bad News signs along the freeways here (Houston area) are currently switching among “COVID-19 Condition Red”, “Storm forming in Gulf - be prepared”, and an Amber alert for some jamoke driving a white Chevy pickup. Whoa, _whoa_, _ **whoa!** _ _ **THERE’S AN AMBER ALERT FOR SOMEONE DRIVING A WHITE CHEVY PICKUP?!?** _ Seriously, I’ve got relatives in the Houston area. I hope all y’all are OK. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/16 "2020-08-22T21:29:38Z")
**Moderator Note** > [@LSLGuy](#): > > So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously. The two threads have been merged. Apologies for any confusion that results from this. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2020, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/17 "2020-08-23T10:24:55Z")
> **[Oh, great: NASA says an asteroid is headed our way right before Election Day...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/us/asteroid-earth-november-2020-scn-trnd/index.html)** > > Well, 2020 just keeps getting better all the time. You rang? It’ll probably miss us. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2020, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/18 "2020-08-23T10:45:24Z")
Wouldn’t one that small burn up in the atmosphere, even if it were headed right for us? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/19 "2020-08-23T14:10:39Z")
I hope I don’t get in trouble for whooshing a Mod. > [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#): > > **Moderator Note** > > > [@LSLGuy](#): > > > > So it is actually pretty appropriate that two “two hurricanes to hit Gulf coast simultaneously” threads hit MPSIMS simultaneously. > > The two threads have been merged. Apologies for any confusion that results from this. @Darren_Garrison had made the funny comment that since we have two hurricanes it’s only appropriate that we have two threads. So I impishly posted the very same words so we’d have two comments about two threads about two hurricanes. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/20 "2020-08-23T18:44:20Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Wouldn’t one that small burn up in the atmosphere, even if it were headed right for us? Depends on the composition and impact angle. Nickel-Iron and straight down? Probably makes it to the ground. Stone or iceball, and glancing blow? Probably a mini-Chelyabinsk airburst. Playing with the guesses on size, I got anything from 1-10 or so kilotons of impact energy. Big light show, but probably not much else. [Chelyabinsk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor) was 400-500 kilotons by comparison. I don’t know that the weather folks have a good handle yet on what either storm will do to the Gulf Coast. So much depends on wind shear; whether existing ridges will guide each storm, and how much; and what, if any, effects either storm will have on each other. In Houston, I am not expecting much besides some rain. Maybe intense rain for a bit. I do expect to lose power if either one hits strongly. If I were on the Coast, I’d proceed with the usual hurricane preps. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2020, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/21 "2020-08-23T20:15:52Z")
Or we could have something like this. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/KcsJ6e8S5lA/hqdefault.jpg "Grand Teton Meteor Near Miss!") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcsJ6e8S5lA) A few years later, we were watching a TV show about UFOs, and they showed this while the voiceover made a reference to weather balloons. My dad said, “That’s not a weather balloon” and he was right. It’s now believed to have been a meteoroid that passed through the atmosphere at about 40 miles up, and could have taken out a city if it had struck. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2020, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663/22 "2020-08-25T20:48:54Z")
Down to just Laura now, currently projected to hit the Texas/Louisiana state line; Marco is post-tropical and dissipating south of Grand Isle. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looks-like-a-bad-week-for-the-gulf-coast-nhc-predicting-two-hurricanes-making-landfall-early-wednesday-morning/918663.md?page=2)