# Lord of the Rings Mafia

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [August 10, 2010, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867 "2010-08-10T19:56:57Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 117

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2321 "2010-09-07T13:37:58Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> > [@Drain\_Bead](#):
> >
> > Well, I suppose it could be worse. He could be quoting Wikipedia.
> 
> I’ll give you 3:1 odds that the parchment is a random Wikipedia article. 😃

well because you asked.

> **[Parchment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parchment)**
>
> Parchment is a writing material made from specially prepared untanned skins of animals—primarily sheep, calves and goats. It has been used as a writing medium in West Asia and Europe for more than two millennia. By AD 400 most literature in these regions that was intended for preservation began to be transferred from papyrus to parchment. Vellum is a finer-quality parchment made from the skins of young animals such as lambs and young calves.
> The generic term animal membrane is sometimes used by l...

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2322 "2010-09-07T13:44:45Z")

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> [@peekercpa](#):
>
> > [@Meeko](#):
> >
> > I’ll give you 3:1 odds that the parchment is a random Wikipedia article. 😃
> 
> well because you asked.
> 
> [Parchment - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parchment)

**From the guy who has more than 3.3 times as many posts as I do, this game.**

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**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2323 "2010-09-07T14:13:46Z")

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Sorry guys - I was camping all weekend and didn’t check in last night. I shoulda told y’all before, but forgot.

**Vote Natlaw**

Kudos to **Mahaloth** , really - it seems that he writes roles that apparently are impossible to fake, given what we’ve seen so far. Oy, **Natlaw** ’s posted PM really stinks. Aside from what others have pointed out, the wording “if the player is asleep you will have time to study them and learn their name” is just really awkward. **Mahaloth** would’ve referred to town much more elegantly in a real PM, not with this klunky mechanism. In any case, it’s out of place in a townie detective role.

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**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2324 "2010-09-07T15:06:40Z")

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And I just now see that I did that wrong.

Vote Natlaw.

I need to remember \*\*Red’\*\*s tagline more, hey? “Votes go in blue.” Sorry. Incidentally, **Red** , did that parchment say anything?

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**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2325 "2010-09-07T15:10:48Z")

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Third time’s a charm.

**Vote Natlaw.**

I know we’ve already mentioned it, but I’m still puzzled by **Natlaw** ’s motivation for the half-claim yesterDay/full claim toDay gambit. If \*\*Astral \*\*really is town, it just doesn’t make any sort of sense.

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**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2326 "2010-09-07T15:16:22Z")

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> [@Snickers](#):
>
> Third time’s a charm.
> 
> **Vote Natlaw.**
> 
> I know we’ve already mentioned it, but I’m still puzzled by **Natlaw** ’s motivation for the half-claim yesterDay/full claim toDay gambit. If \*\*Astral \*\*really is town, it just doesn’t make any sort of sense.

The only way I can make it make sense to me

1. Natlaw correctly knows Astral’s rolename somehow

2. It was expected that Astral would be lynched, so this would become public info

3. Town then blindly trusts Nat so no full claim the next day is required

4. $$Profit$$

Of course, we screwed 2 up by not lynching Astral, necessitating a (botched) full claim the next day.

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2327 "2010-09-07T15:54:25Z")

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\*\*Vote Count:

Natlaw(13): Astral, Nanook, Chronos, Innerstickler, Oneandonly, Peeker, Hoopy, Drainbead, USCDiver, Redskeezix, Natlaw, Mhaye, Snickers

Nanook(1) Natlaw\*\*

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**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2328 "2010-09-07T16:19:20Z")

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I was going to apologize for not posting until now, but apparently I’m dead, so I won’t. 😃

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**Author:** ![Doctor\_Who](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Doctor\_Who](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doctor_Who)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2329 "2010-09-07T16:38:31Z")

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Whew! Labor Day Weekend is finally f&#\*% over! Back to Mafia…

**Vote: Natlaw.**

I think most things have been said already, but here’s my reasoning: (1) Scummy timing with the last minute save on Astral, (2) typos in the alleged role PM, (3) obfuscation when we need illumination (post 2186 - “don’t think revealing my full results are useful”), and (4) the general tone of post #2292 - spin, spin, spin. So that’s why I voted for Natlaw.

Moving right along:

Like most people, I am baffled by the timing. What was the point of the whole thing? Was it to build cred by trying and failing to save Astral? Was it to save a super-scum Astral? Was it a super complicated scheme to bolster another scum’s claim? I don’t know. All I know is this: there’s a ton of information in that timing, I’m just not sure how to interpret it yet.

Nanook’s claim - I’m on board right now for several reasons. First, I believe there has to be a Gandalf in a LOTR Mafia game. No counter-claim (yet). Second, I believe we probably won’t have to wait too long for the big reveal. If Nanook is our detective, he probably won’t last the night.

As for the Parchment… Aside from driving Meeko crazy, I’m not sure we have enough information to work with yet. I am having a really hard time thinking up any canonical parchments from the LOTR.

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2330 "2010-09-07T19:06:49Z")

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> [@Doctor\_Who](#):
>
> As for the Parchment… Aside from driving Meeko crazy, …

\<snipped\>

well at least it was a short drive 🙂

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [September 7, 2010, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2331 "2010-09-07T19:52:04Z")

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> [@peekercpa](#):
>
> > [@Doctor\_Who](#):
> >
> > As for the Parchment… Aside from driving Meeko crazy, …
> 
> \<snipped\>
> 
> well at least it was a short drive 🙂

\*\*You would know, the trip was to your house. \*\*

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2332 "2010-09-08T13:24:24Z")

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> [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](#):
>
> > [@Snickers](#):
> >
> > Third time’s a charm.
> > 
> > **[COLOR"blue"]Vote Natlaw.[/COLOR]**
> > 
> > I know we’ve already mentioned it, but I’m still puzzled by **Natlaw** ’s motivation for the half-claim yesterDay/full claim toDay gambit. If \*\*Astral \*\*really is town, it just doesn’t make any sort of sense.
> 
> The only way I can make it make sense to me
> 
> 1. Natlaw correctly knows Astral’s rolename somehow
> 
> 2. It was expected that Astral would be lynched, so this would become public info
> 
> 3. Town then blindly trusts Nat so no full claim the next day is required
> 
> 4. $$Profit$$
> 
> Of course, we screwed 2 up by not lynching Astral, necessitating a (botched) full claim the next day.

actually we screwed up by not lynching **astral**.

**nook** might or might not have counter claimed. but sooner or later **nat** would have to post the flaky pm and as long as **nook** was around to counter claim he was going to swing at that point. or we could have lynched **nook** and depending how he flipped then either **nat** is totally confirmed or swings the next Day (i don’t think we are that silly but with this crowd who knows).

as it is **nook** has claimed (and i really have no clue how he would have played it if we had done otherwise - but i would kind of like to hear his thoughts). and we are still faced with the **astral** connundrum.

p.s. i remembered to preview and remembered to bleach. 🆒

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2333 "2010-09-08T13:39:37Z")

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> [@peekercpa](#):
>
> actually we screwed up by not lynching **astral**.
> 
> **nook** might or might not have counter claimed. but sooner or later **nat** would have to post the flaky pm and as long as **nook** was around to counter claim he was going to swing at that point. or we could have lynched **nook** and depending how he flipped then either **nat** is totally confirmed or swings the next Day (i don’t think we are that silly but with this crowd who knows).
> 
> as it is **nook** has claimed (and i really have no clue how he would have played it if we had done otherwise - but i would kind of like to hear his thoughts). and we are still faced with the **astral** connundrum.
> 
> p.s. i remembered to preview and remembered to bleach. 🆒

Wasn’t Astral verified as Town? Ok, so perhaps the verification is in doubt, but we took it as gospel in the moment. **We had no other play.**

Ok. Astral was the lynch leader. We unvoted to save someone we thought to be town at the time. Because of that we now apparently have a scum as lynch leader.

Why can’t we lynch Astral tommorow ?  
\*\*  
Assuming two scum to one VT , shouldn’t we make that trade every single time?\*\*

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2334 "2010-09-08T14:02:48Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> > [@peekercpa](#):
> >
> > actually we screwed up by not lynching **astral**.
> > 
> > **nook** might or might not have counter claimed. but sooner or later **nat** would have to post the flaky pm and as long as **nook** was around to counter claim he was going to swing at that point. or we could have lynched **nook** and depending how he flipped then either **nat** is totally confirmed or swings the next Day (i don’t think we are that silly but with this crowd who knows).
> > 
> > as it is **nook** has claimed (and i really have no clue how he would have played it if we had done otherwise - but i would kind of like to hear his thoughts). and we are still faced with the **astral** connundrum.
> > 
> > p.s. i remembered to preview and remembered to bleach. 🆒
> 
> Wasn’t Astral verified as Town? Ok, so perhaps the verification is in doubt, but we took it as gospel in the moment. **We had no other play.**
> 
> Ok. Astral was the lynch leader. We unvoted to save someone we thought to be town at the time. Because of that we now apparently have a scum as lynch leader.
> 
> Why can’t we lynch Astral tommorow ?  
> \*\*  
> Assuming two scum to one VT , shouldn’t we make that trade every single time?\*\*

**astral** has never been verified as town as near as i can tell.

that depends on what you think of **nat**. was he trying to save a fellow scum (would have to be an important one for that gambit), did he have information about another player to start the game ala **chronos** , do scum have an investigator or did he get lucky as shit?

and let’s assume we do as you say and **astral** is in fact town. then it is not a two for one trade at all. then we get three dead vts ( **ed** , **astral** and another Night kill the following Night), one dead dick (i assume if **nat** flips scum **nook** won’t make it through the upcoming Night) and 1 dead scum.

using jsexton pointing that is a huge net loss for town.

and even if **astral** were to flip scum that provides only marginal benefit for town (2 dead scum, 2 dead vts and a dead dick). and since town is already down going into a prevent defense from a scum perspective makes sense.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2335 "2010-09-08T16:02:05Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> actually we screwed up by not lynching astral.
> 
> nook might or might not have counter claimed. but sooner or later nat would have to post the flaky pm and as long as nook was around to counter claim he was going to swing at that point. or we could have lynched nook and depending how he flipped then either nat is totally confirmed or swings the next Day (i don’t think we are that silly but with this crowd who knows).

That logic is only valid if we knew at the time that **Natlaw** would end up outing himself. If his claim had turned out to be true, then it would have been completely idiotic to lynch **Astral**. And at the time, _we didn’t know_.

But, of course, even if we did know yesterDay that **Natlaw** was lying, it still wouldn’t have been the correct play to lynch **Astral** , since then, the correct play would have been to lynch **Natlaw** himself instead.

You say that we still have to deal with the **Astral** conundrum. Well, that’s true. And we also still have to deal with the **peeker** conundrum, and the **Doctor Who** conundrum, and the **Snickers** conundrum, and so on. There are a lot of people we don’t know the alignment of; how is **Astral** any different in that regard?

Basically, you’re saying that we should have made a decision yesterDay based on information we didn’t get until toDay.

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2336 "2010-09-08T19:16:17Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> That logic is only valid if we knew at the time that **Natlaw** would end up outing himself.

\<snipped\>

so you think that **nat** didn’t out himself by his declaration of **astral**?

seriously, wtf.

and don’t forget the **chronos** conundrum, as well. 🙂

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**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2337 "2010-09-08T19:23:19Z")

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unless, **chronos** you are referring to what appears to be a butchered pm.

but either way, **nat** was going to have to come clean toDay with something. and i seriously doubt that what went down late in the Day would have changed toDay’s b.s. from him. in which case **nook** still claims and we are on the same path.

the only difference is that the **astral** question is resolved. also, it would not have me pulling my hair out on **wanderers** last minute vote shift. additionally, a person that i strongly suspected was actually town would be alive. and i know that to some extent that is monday morning quarterbacking but shoot it still is the facts.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2338 "2010-09-08T19:43:13Z")

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Again, we didn’t know any of that last Night. And you could avoid pulling your hair out about **Wanderers** by getting it through your head that, given the information at the time, he made the right choice, voting for someone for whom there was no evidence of innocence rather than for someone for whom there was evidence of innocence.

> [@](#):
>
> so you think that nat didn’t out himself by his declaration of astral?

No, I don’t think that. If you did think he outed himself that way, then why didn’t you vote for him yesterDay?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2339 "2010-09-08T19:47:51Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Again, we didn’t know any of that last Night. And you could avoid pulling your hair out about **Wanderers** by getting it through your head that, given the information at the time, he made the right choice, voting for someone for whom there was no evidence of innocence rather than for someone for whom there was evidence of innocence.
> 
> > [@](#):
> >
> > so you think that nat didn’t out himself by his declaration of astral?
> 
> No, I don’t think that. If you did think he outed himself that way, then why didn’t you vote for him yesterDay?

no, i typically don’t vote for claimed town power roles because they have a tendency to resolve themselves.

i also didn’t vote for **burb** , btw.

i voted for the person i felt was the most scummy.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [September 8, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/2340 "2010-09-08T20:10:39Z")

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But there’s no point in letting a claimed detective live if you’re just going to kill off the folks he says are Town.

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