# Lord of the Rings Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 10, 2010, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867 "2010-08-10T19:56:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/341 "2010-08-13T16:03:21Z")
> [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > If anyone else can access them, and would like to post the section from the “polyjuice potions” thread please feel free to do so, so we can dispel this notion of handshakes being worth anything except exposing those with a desire to shake hands. I kept a copy of mine: > [@](#): > > You are Neville Longbottom > > You are a member of the Order of the Phoenix. > > You want to get rid of all the Death Eaters. After all, they are killing your friends and family and will one day kill you. > > You win when the Death Eaters are dead. > > Powers: > > You have no additional powers beyond your daily votes for lynching. > [@special\_ed](#): > > > [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > > > /snip The fact that the handshaking attempt wasn’t based on the wincon sentence alone raises a number of question about the original intention. > > Interesting. So, you’ve managed to cast suspicion on my attempt because what I did raises multiple questions. > > However, I’m left unable to answer any of the questions because you haven’t actually posted any of them. Sorry. I’ll be explicit: - Why didn’t you base the handshake attempt on the wincon sentence alone? - Were you hoping to handshake with a specific sub-group of players? ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/342 "2010-08-13T16:08:55Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > > > If anyone else can access them, and would like to post the section from the “polyjuice potions” thread please feel free to do so, so we can dispel this notion of handshakes being worth anything except exposing those with a desire to shake hands. > > I kept a copy of mine: > > > [@special\_ed](#): > > > > Interesting. So, you’ve managed to cast suspicion on my attempt because what I did raises multiple questions. > > > > However, I’m left unable to answer any of the questions because you haven’t actually posted any of them. > > Sorry. I’ll be explicit: > > - Why didn’t you base the handshake attempt on the wincon sentence alone? > - Were you hoping to handshake with a specific sub-group of players? Yes, my attempt was to handshake with Vanilla Townies for 2 reasons 1. I couldn’t be sure that a power role ownie’s PM might not differ significant;y from mine 2. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/343 "2010-08-13T16:12:19Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > 1. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. Umm…if we confirm who the Vanillas are, doesn’t that by extension tell the Scum exactly who the Power roles are? I fail to see how this helps us… ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/344 "2010-08-13T16:13:36Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > > [@Gadarene](#): > > > > Yup. > > Do I need membership in some secret club to actually be able to see these mysterious questions? Or are you 2 just going to try yo build suspicion on me by winking and nodding at each other knowingly? I wasn’t trying to build suspicion on you at all; apologies if it was unclear. (And I see now that my “Yup” could have been interpreted as questioning your motives in attempting the handshake – that wasn’t my intent.) I was just agreeing that the handshake attempt was initially confusing to me – as I’ve already posted – because “the last section” of my role PM is the single wincon sentence, which means that your role PM and my role PM differ in some way. Although this difference is probably not meaningful, since in light of the varying inconsistencies between role PMs (and the supposition that **Mahaloth** intentionally avoided creating a uniform PM format) I don’t see any reason to assume that we’re not on the same side. To be honest, you’re one of only two players who’s strongly pinging Town for me at this point. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/345 "2010-08-13T16:15:48Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > Yes, my attempt was to handshake with Vanilla Townies for 2 reasons > > 1. I couldn’t be sure that a power role ownie’s PM might not differ significant;y from mine > 2. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. And if every VT shook your hand, you’d have managed to expose all town power roles. I wonder who’d be nightkilled then… This is exactly what I feared you were trying to do. An apparently pro-town action with enormous scum benefit. **Vote Special Ed** ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/346 "2010-08-13T16:16:21Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > > [@special\_ed](#): > > > > 1. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. > > Umm…if we confirm who the Vanillas are, doesn’t that by extension tell the Scum exactly who the Power roles are? I fail to see how this helps us… NETA: Yeah, I’m with **Plankton** on this. Seems weird/counterproductive to try and specifically confirm vanillas, and it honestly never occurred to me that this might be your goal. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/347 "2010-08-13T16:19:56Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > > [@special\_ed](#): > > > > 1. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. > > Umm…if we confirm who the Vanillas are, doesn’t that by extension tell the Scum exactly who the Power roles are? I fail to see how this helps us… By confirming vanillas, you essentially make them power roles. Kind of like unintentional masons. Confirmed players cannot be mislynched and are often dramatically more devastating to the scum team’s efforts than any of the other power roles. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/348 "2010-08-13T16:30:02Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > > [@special\_ed](#): > > > > Yes, my attempt was to handshake with Vanilla Townies for 2 reasons > > > > 1. I couldn’t be sure that a power role ownie’s PM might not differ significant;y from mine > > 2. By confirming Vanillas we set ourselves up to be NightKilled. Much better to NK the Vanilla’s than the Townies. > > And if every VT shook your hand, you’d have managed to expose all town power roles. I wonder who’d be nightkilled then… > > This is exactly what I feared you were trying to do. An apparently pro-town action with enormous scum benefit. > > **Vote Special Ed** If every Vanilla shook my hand we’d have a potentially huge pool of confirmed Town who couldn’t be lynched! That would be fantastic. Yes, the Scum could kill off each and every one of our power roles, and that would be OK. Let me demonstrate with a smaller example. Let’s say 16 people, 4 Scum, 5 power roles, and 7 Vanilla. Day 1: 7 Vanilla Confirmed 4 Scum 5 Power roles Let’s say we mislynch and kill a power role Night 1 7 Confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum 4 Power roles They kill a power role Day 2 7 Confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum 3 Power roles We have a better than 50% chance of getting Scum, but let’s say we miss again Night 2 7 Confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum 2 Power roles Day 3 7 confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum 1 Power role Well, let’s keep making mistakes Night 3 7 Confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum They have to killa vanilla Day 4 6 confirmed Vanilla 4 Scum And we’ve won by lynching the Scum as they kill a confirmed Vanilla. Confirming players is good. Very good. The Scum have to, at some point Night Kill them ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/349 "2010-08-13T16:30:22Z")
I wanted to put out an early vote, so I’ve skimmed through the thread again, but nothing really stands out to me. Although **peeker** ’s huge number of posts makes it much harder to track down anything he said. Not helpful at all. No vote yet. I really don’t think handshaking through secret shared knowledge is going to be effective at confirming anyone’s town alignment. If it is, I am going to be very disappointed in game’s designers. They do know better. I will not place any value in any “town” confirmation via this method. However, I do think it’s possible, though unlikely, that scum could make a mistake with the handshaking. I’m not going to discourage others from trying that tact. I’m not going to spend my time doing it. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ From a theory point of view, in the future, there are much better ways to handshake with a shared secret then the letter counting method used so far. That method reveals too much information. Instead, use a hash of the “signed” secret. For example, let’s say my victory condition isYou win all scum are dead.I append my username to that and compute a hash.You win all scum are dead.PleonastThe [CRC32](http://www.fileformat.info/tool/hash.htm) of that is df2216d2. This method allows anyone with the same victory condition to confirm mine is the same, while making it difficult for a player with a different condition to forge a fake hash. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/350 "2010-08-13T16:33:05Z")
> [@Gadarene](#): > > > [@special\_ed](#): > > > > Do I need membership in some secret club to actually be able to see these mysterious questions? Or are you 2 just going to try yo build suspicion on me by winking and nodding at each other knowingly? > > I wasn’t trying to build suspicion on you at all; apologies if it was unclear. (And I see now that my “Yup” could have been interpreted as questioning your motives in attempting the handshake – that wasn’t my intent.) I was just agreeing that the handshake attempt was initially confusing to me – as I’ve already posted – because “the last section” of my role PM is the single wincon sentence, which means that your role PM and my role PM differ in some way. Although this difference is probably not meaningful, since in light of the varying inconsistencies between role PMs (and the supposition that **Mahaloth** intentionally avoided creating a uniform PM format) I don’t see any reason to assume that we’re not on the same side. To be honest, you’re one of only two players who’s strongly pinging Town for me at this point. As has been discussed, I took “last section” to mean everything after the last header, which, granted is confusing since there is only 1 header ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/351 "2010-08-13T16:33:09Z")
> [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > By confirming vanillas, you essentially make them power roles. Kind of like unintentional masons. Confirmed players cannot be mislynched and are often dramatically more devastating to the scum team’s efforts than any of the other power roles. Oh. That makes sense. I was more concerned about reducing the pool of unconfirmed for power roles to hide in. **Unvote Special Ed** On preview, I now understand what you were trying to do. Hmm. If scum had cover roles, wouldn’t they be very, very eager to be confirmed? ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/352 "2010-08-13T16:37:04Z")
I’d like to get a little more explanation from **Pleonast** about why he thought that claiming a power role right off the bat was a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![peekercpa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8baadc/32.png) [@peekercpa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/peekercpa)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/353 "2010-08-13T16:38:50Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > This is exactly what I feared you were trying to do. An apparently pro-town action with enormous scum benefit. \ i wonder how this fits into the anti town = scum and pro town = not scum matrix? i think we need another spreadsheet. keep trying **pleo** at some point it might get some traction. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/354 "2010-08-13T16:40:15Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > > > By confirming vanillas, you essentially make them power roles. Kind of like unintentional masons. Confirmed players cannot be mislynched and are often dramatically more devastating to the scum team’s efforts than any of the other power roles. > > Oh. That makes sense. I was more concerned about reducing the pool of unconfirmed for power roles to hide in. > > **Unvote Special Ed** > > On preview, I now understand what you were trying to do. Hmm. > > If scum had cover roles, wouldn’t they be very, very eager to be confirmed? Yes, of course. So in that situation it wouldn’t work. In my experience though, it’s easy to figure out. I;ve seen a case where the Mod steps in and publishes the Vanilla Role PM ending any further handshaking (e.g, Princess Bride on GB), which means that it msot liely was a genuine handshake. By not having the Mod step in here, I’m assuming the Scum have access to the Vanilla role PM and are choosing to do nothing (It could be a ploy, but I doubt it) And we can continue to check with the people who have shaken hands to see if any of them flip Scum throughout the game ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/355 "2010-08-13T16:41:28Z")
> [@Gadarene](#): > > I’d like to get a little more explanation from **Pleonast** about why he thought that claiming a power role right off the bat was a good idea. Good luck with that. Many people have tried. All have failed. He’s done it in previous games. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/356 "2010-08-13T16:42:40Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ > > From a theory point of view, in the future, there are much better ways to handshake with a shared secret then the letter counting method used so far. That method reveals too much information. Instead, use a hash of the “signed” secret. For example, let’s say my victory condition isYou win all scum are dead.I append my username to that and compute a hash.You win all scum are dead.PleonastThe [CRC32](http://www.fileformat.info/tool/hash.htm) of that is df2216d2. This method allows anyone with the same victory condition to confirm mine is the same, while making it difficult for a player with a different condition to forge a fake hash. [oog] I hadn’t thought of salting the hash/checksum. That is a good idea. [/oog] ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/357 "2010-08-13T16:44:38Z")
We need an estimate of the number of scum. With 23 players, the mislynch number\* as a function the number of scum is: ```auto Town Scum Mislynches 20 3 8.5 19 4 7.5 18 5 6.5 17 6 5.5 16 7 4.5 ``` Without knowledge about power roles on either side, I’d say there’d be 5 scum. More than that means too many scum would have to be lynched for the number of available mislynches. Fewer than that would make it too easy. Power roles, of course, change the balance. But until we get more information on those, I will assume we’re working against 5 scum. \*For those new to the game, the mislynch number is the number of times we can lynch townies without losing the game. It assumes that the only means of death are the town lynch during the Day and the scum kill at Night. Deaths by other means will change the mislynch number. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/358 "2010-08-13T16:46:22Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > If every Vanilla shook my hand we’d have a potentially huge pool of confirmed Town who couldn’t be lynched! > > That would be fantastic. Yes, the Scum could kill off each and every one of our power roles, and that would be OK. Let me demonstrate with a smaller example. > > Let’s say 16 people, 4 Scum, 5 power roles, and 7 Vanilla. > > […] > > Confirming players is good. Very good. The Scum have to, at some point Night Kill them OK, I see your point, and it’s a pretty good one. But lets say 23 people, an unknown number of scum, and an unknown number of power roles. Do the numbers still add up in our favor? I’m not saying they don’t, but since we don’t know any of the actual numbers involved, it’s not quite as cut and dry as your example. I don’t necessarily think **special ed** ’s motives are anything other than what he claims, but I do question the validity of handshaking, for reasons already stated by others. I don’t think we’re getting any useful information from them, and at this point it’s very difficult to tell 'unhelpful information ’ from ‘intentional misinformation’. I’d lean towards ‘no information’ being the best alternative at this point. **Mahaloth: are you really going to make us go through another whole week of this conversation?** ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/359 "2010-08-13T16:46:43Z")
> [@Gadarene](#): > > I’d like to get a little more explanation from **Pleonast** about why he thought that claiming a power role right off the bat was a good idea. I’ve already answered that question in this thread. I have nothing further to say about it. I don’t want to fill this thread with debate on that point. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2010, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867/360 "2010-08-13T16:48:59Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > We need an estimate of the number of scum. With 23 players, the mislynch number\* as a function the number of scum is: > > ```auto > > Town Scum Mislynches > 20 3 8.5 > 19 4 7.5 > 18 5 6.5 > 17 6 5.5 > 16 7 4.5 > > ``` > > Without knowledge about power roles on either side, I’d say there’d be 5 scum. More than that means too many scum would have to be lynched for the number of available mislynches. Fewer than that would make it too easy. > > Power roles, of course, change the balance. But until we get more information on those, I will assume we’re working against 5 scum. > > \*For those new to the game, the mislynch number is the number of times we can lynch townies without losing the game. It assumes that the only means of death are the town lynch during the Day and the scum kill at Night. Deaths by other means will change the mislynch number. This analysis also fails to take into consideration possible recruitment and/or 3rd party players. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lord-of-the-rings-mafia/549867.md?page=19)