# Lost 5:14 "The Variable" **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [April 29, 2009, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746 "2009-04-29T18:12:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![TooSchoolforCool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tooschoolforcool/32/19621_2.png) [@TooSchoolforCool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TooSchoolforCool)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/41 "2009-04-30T04:23:28Z")
And for anyone who gets super pissed at obvious chances for big explanations being blown, this ep had it in spades. A million points at which Daniel could have explained what the hell Dharma was all about or people could have asked questions, and they didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Monstre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@Monstre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monstre)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/42 "2009-04-30T04:29:21Z")
I don’t think they’ll change things. Besides, the “variables” (the people with free will) already made their choices in the past – they are just viewing it from their present perspective now. I do still think that the Incident will be what gets them back to their own time somehow (I predicted this a few weeks ago, and I still think it’s going to be the case). Looks to me like the rest of the season will be covering the “next 4 hours” of island time in 1977. Because Daniel’s claim that the release of energy is going to happen in 4 hours – well, that pretty much sounds worthy of getting named “The Incident”. Maybe starting with this episode, they should have started with “events occur in real time”. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![randwill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a3d4f5/32.png) [@randwill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/randwill)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/43 "2009-04-30T04:42:42Z")
Mathew Fox said on Letterman that the cliff-hanger at the end of the season will be big. So I guess it’ll end just before or just after the ‘energy release.’ ---
**Author:** ![Monstre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@Monstre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monstre)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/44 "2009-04-30T04:46:00Z")
> [@randwill](#): > > So I guess it’ll end just before or just after the ‘energy release.’ Heh. Energy release… I just had this flash where the island is somehow “alive”, and the Dharma drillers accidentally hit its G-spot. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/45 "2009-04-30T04:49:32Z")
> [@fiddlesticks](#): > > I was trying to figure out Daniel’s age during the episode…he was a professor in 1996 when he met Desmond. His super-genius perhaps allows that he got his doctorate at around age 18, …meaning Daniel could have been conceived after he was shot…but the timeline is pretty tight. His gift from being born on the island must be his super-math skills much like Miles’ ghost skills… I don’t think that Daniel was born on the island. He was the only one not getting nosebleeds. ---
**Author:** ![Yeeter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/96bed5/32.png) [@Yeeter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yeeter)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/46 "2009-04-30T05:22:49Z")
I’m thinking that Eloise killing future Daniel happened, happened. How did she know whether Desmond got engaged to Penny or not? I’m thinking it’s because she had Future Daniel’s notebook that spelled out all the things that happened (in the future). And when Penny asked if Desmond was going to be all right in the hospital Eloise replied something like “I don’t know anything that happens after now.” Because Present Daniel has died in the past and isn’t taking notes any longer." But because he died, Past Eloise has his notes on the Future. What do you mean I’m not being clear? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Q](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/898d66/32.png) [@Johnny\_Q](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Q)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/47 "2009-04-30T06:09:24Z")
I wonder if someone’s going to swipe Desmond’s kid in order to make him go along with whatever business the Island still has for him. Knowing these writers, the whole “the nurse will look after your kid” thing raises a few suspicions. ---
**Author:** ![Indistinguishable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90ced4/32.png) [@Indistinguishable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indistinguishable)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/48 "2009-04-30T06:19:16Z")
Especially because, hell, why not bring the kid in with you to see his dad? It just didn’t ring true to me (but what do I know?). ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/49 "2009-04-30T07:40:22Z")
Pretty much everything that got screwed up involved Daniel waving around a gun. When he was saying they could change things so the plane doesn’t crash I was thinking “well that wouldn’t really work out in Kate’s favor now would it?” I wonder if this will cause a conflict. I’d say Kate, Locke, and Rose were significantly advantaged by crashing on the island. Obviously all those who died were severely disadvantaged. I’d say Sun and Jin benefitted as well. Jack and Hurley seem to be somewhat neutral, though they’ve both experienced some personal growth. Sayid seems to have been disadvantaged. The freighter people never would have come to the island. Desmond wouldn’t have been in the Swan, but would he still have wrecked on the island? Alex wouldn’t have been killed, but would she have met her mother? ---
**Author:** ![Shoeless](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shoeless/32/7099_2.png) [@Shoeless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shoeless)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/50 "2009-04-30T13:06:47Z")
> [@randwill](#): > > Mathew Fox said on Letterman that the cliff-hanger at the end of the season will be big. So I guess it’ll end just before or just after the ‘energy release.’ Didn’t someone mention in the Lost thread a week or two ago that the “secret code word” for the season finale plot device was something like “the fork in the outlet”? So yeah, I’m guessing you are right. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/51 "2009-04-30T13:32:21Z")
Daniel is apparently an idiot when it comes to IRL tactics. 1. “Hi Dr. Chang, I’m from the future and this is your son.” That’s your play? You thought he’d just accept that? 2. Why walk into New Otherton brandishing a gun? Alpert knows you. Nobody is shooting. Brilliant. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/52 "2009-04-30T13:39:45Z")
Access code 141717. Meaning? ---
**Author:** ![Meltdown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Meltdown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meltdown)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/53 "2009-04-30T14:01:56Z")
> [@Yeeter](#): > > I’m thinking that Eloise killing future Daniel happened, happened. How did she know whether Desmond got engaged to Penny or not? I’m thinking it’s because she had Future Daniel’s notebook that spelled out all the things that happened (in the future). And when Penny asked if Desmond was going to be all right in the hospital Eloise replied something like “I don’t know anything that happens after now.” Because Present Daniel has died in the past and isn’t taking notes any longer." But because he died, Past Eloise has his notes on the Future. > > What do you mean I’m not being clear? Actually, that makes perfect sense to me. Speculation based on the preview for next week’s episode: It looks like Jack finds Daniel’s notebook, and is contemplating fulfilling Daniel’s plan. One could easily imagine a scenario where it ends up with Eloise. So while it seems that Daniel’s coming back to the island just to get killed was meaningless, his true purpose was to bring that notebook back to the island’s past. ---
**Author:** ![Meltdown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Meltdown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meltdown)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/54 "2009-04-30T14:02:59Z")
> [@Monstre](#): > > I was going to come in and propose the same kind of relative timeline idea – but the problem is that even the relative times don’t seem to sync up. Oh, then, well… I got nothin’. ---
**Author:** ![Caricci](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/85f322/32.png) [@Caricci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Caricci)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/55 "2009-04-30T15:25:14Z")
I loved how Hurley clarified when our gang met Eloise: “1954? You mean Fonzie times?” I don’t know what could be less evocative of the leather-jacketed one than the Island, but, yes, Fonzie times indeed. And, of course, whoever here pointed out that Ellie the young guard in Fonzie-era New Otherton must be Eloise was right! ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/56 "2009-04-30T15:37:19Z")
> [@Gfactor](#): > > Daniel is apparently an idiot when it comes to IRL tactics. > > 1. “Hi Dr. Chang, I’m from the future and this is your son.” That’s your play? You thought he’d just accept that? > > 2. Why walk into New Otherton brandishing a gun? Alpert knows you. Nobody is shooting. Brilliant. 1. He said he just needed Chang to do what he was supposed to do, not necessarily believe he’s a time traveler. He wasn’t trying to change the past that time. That was a “What Happened, Happened” moment. 2. I think he figured out that his mom being all about destiny was due to the fact that she knew that he came back to the past. He assumed that she would have told him if he had been shot. That’s what the whole “You knew what would happen” line was for. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/57 "2009-04-30T15:50:20Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > 1. I think he figured out that his mom being all about destiny was due to the fact that she knew that he came back to the past. He assumed that she would have told him if he had been shot. That’s what the whole “You knew what would happen” line was for. Exactly. He knew (or at least strongly suspected) that his Mom was on the island and that she remembered meeting him there. His logical conclusion was that he was completely safe at least until he met her (because you can’t change the past). What he didn’t count on was meeting her after being shot in the back by her - a fact he probably figured she would have mentioned before sending him there… I’m still trying to figure out whether he actually believed his speech to Jack and Kate about changing the past or if he was just trying to make sure everybody “did what the needed to do”. He certainly seemed to try to change things by talking to little Charlotte - but on the other hand he also _knows_ that he tried to convince her to stay away (because she told him that before she died). So by trying to change the past he was actually just fulfilling it… or something. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/58 "2009-04-30T15:58:26Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > So by trying to change the past he was actually just fulfilling it… or something. This is a recurring theme. Guy knows x will happen, acts to prevent it, and actually causes it. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/59 "2009-04-30T16:03:36Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > 1. He said he just needed Chang to do what he was supposed to do, not necessarily believe he’s a time traveler. He wasn’t trying to change the past that time. That was a “What Happened, Happened” moment. I think this is right as a matter of Lost canon. But I find it a pretty weak reason to do it. Especially if “whatever happened, happened.” If it’s already determined, why do extra stuff? Unless, he actually caused it in the first place. > [@](#): > > 1. I think he figured out that his mom being all about destiny was due to the fact that she knew that he came back to the past. He assumed that she would have told him if he had been shot. That’s what the whole “You knew what would happen” line was for. All the more reason to calmly walk in and speak his truth. If he’s going to live no matter what, why not just ask to see Alpert again. Alpert would recognize him. They’re a lot less likely to shoot a guy who isn’t brandishing a firearm. ---
**Author:** ![wasson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/4da419/32.png) [@wasson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wasson)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/60 "2009-04-30T16:07:32Z")
Why isn’t 1977 Daniel on the island? His mom and dad are both there, and it seems he’d probably be around 10 years old in 1977. As mentioned above, his lack of nosebleeds means he probably hadn’t ever been there before his freighter arrived. So what happened there? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746.md?page=4)