# Lost 5:14 "The Variable" **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [April 29, 2009, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746 "2009-04-29T18:12:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Meltdown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Meltdown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meltdown)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/61 "2009-04-30T16:18:39Z")
> [@wasson](#): > > Why isn’t 1977 Daniel on the island? His mom and dad are both there, and it seems he’d probably be around 10 years old in 1977. As mentioned above, his lack of nosebleeds means he probably hadn’t ever been there before his freighter arrived. So what happened there? Do we know Dad is there? Have we seen him in 1977? During Ben’s storyline, when he takes over the leadership from Widmore and sends him home on the sub, he makes reference to Widmore’s leaving the island as one of the reasons he’s not fit to be the leader. Perhaps Widmore is off island in 1977. Perhaps he brought Daniel with him. That is if Daniel was born by 1977 – as pointed out before the timeline makes it seem likely that he was, but it’s not impossible for him to be born a year later. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/62 "2009-04-30T16:21:24Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I’m still trying to figure out whether he actually believed his speech to Jack and Kate about changing the past or if he was just trying to make sure everybody “did what the needed to do”. He certainly seemed to try to change things by talking to little Charlotte - but on the other hand he also _knows_ that he tried to convince her to stay away (because she told him that before she died). So by trying to change the past he was actually just fulfilling it… or something. I think he’s just getting desperate > [@Gfactor](#): > > Unless, he actually caused it in the first place. Exactly. In 1977, Daniel Faraday ALWAYS told Chang that he’s from the future and told him to evacuate the island. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/63 "2009-04-30T16:21:34Z")
> [@Meltdown](#): > > Do we know Dad is there? Have we seen him in 1977? During Ben’s storyline, when he takes over the leadership from Widmore and sends him home on the sub, he makes reference to Widmore’s leaving the island as one of the reasons he’s not fit to be the leader. Perhaps Widmore is off island in 1977. Perhaps he brought Daniel with him. > > That is if Daniel was born by 1977 – as pointed out before the timeline makes it seem likely that he was, but it’s not impossible for him to be born a year later. Nah. He spoke to young Ben after Alpert fixed him in the Temple. He’s around, probably shagging Ellie. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelQReilly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@MichaelQReilly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelQReilly)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/64 "2009-04-30T16:23:08Z")
I actually love the job the writers are doing with the whole fate vs. free will/ man of science man of faith issue. Hawking killed Daniel in her past, which means he had to have gone back and gotten killed. But him getting killed was in his own future, so did he really have the choice to do it? Or is it in effect that his free will choices led to his fate? In other words, whatever happened happened, but it happened because of the choices. ---
**Author:** ![TooSchoolforCool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tooschoolforcool/32/19621_2.png) [@TooSchoolforCool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TooSchoolforCool)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/65 "2009-04-30T16:33:43Z")
> [@Yeeter](#): > > I’m thinking that Eloise killing future Daniel happened, happened. How did she know whether Desmond got engaged to Penny or not? I’m thinking it’s because she had Future Daniel’s notebook that spelled out all the things that happened (in the future). And when Penny asked if Desmond was going to be all right in the hospital Eloise replied something like “I don’t know anything that happens after now.” Because Present Daniel has died in the past and isn’t taking notes any longer." But because he died, Past Eloise has his notes on the Future. Sounds about right, but now it makes me wonder why she spent time trying to convince Desmond not to buy the ring. Just like Daniel, there’s that unavoidable element of this “trying to make sure things happen as they are supposed to” thing that doesn’t really make sense. Why would you have to TRY to make what happened happened? Why wouldn’t it just happen whatever you do (because whatever it is you do is what led to it all happening the way its supposed to happen anyway) That Eloise seems so sure that you can’t change things (universe course corrects) implies to me, now, that she did try and change things, horrified that she had killed her son, but that she eventually learned it was impossible. Hence her EMOTIONAL attitude towards Desmond. But it still doesn’t explain why she would spend time explaining any of it to him or try to make sure he went to the Island. It certainly doesn’t explain why she’d be so gung ho about maintaining a chain of events that lead to her son dying. You’d think she’d just be passively resigned to it, even if she did want it to play out a different way in her heart of hearts. ---
**Author:** ![Gfactor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@Gfactor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gfactor)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/66 "2009-04-30T16:38:01Z")
> [@TooSchoolforCool](#): > > It certainly doesn’t explain why she’d be so gung ho about maintaining a chain of events that lead to her son dying. You’d think she’d just be passively resigned to it, even if she did want it to play out a different way in her heart of hearts. Maybe she and Smokey had a tête-à-tête similar to the one Ben had with Smokey. ---
**Author:** ![TooSchoolforCool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tooschoolforcool/32/19621_2.png) [@TooSchoolforCool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TooSchoolforCool)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/67 "2009-04-30T16:39:37Z")
So given that the producers have gone to such lengths, and risked such audience annoyance, to prevent characters from telling each other about the Dharma Initiative’s big secrets, should we all expect that there really ARE some big reveals there? Or is it inconsequential? I mean Daniel presumably met the DeGroots or even Hanso and should know a HECK of a lot of Dharma history besides just the Swan. So he gets killed off before anyone has a chance to shake him down (though of course, there’s that "but they were walking through the jungle for hours and could have talked then! problem) for info. I understand why that might be frustrating to people if they focus on it. Personally, its a suspension of disbelief I find easy to go with just because the show has been so fun. But they must be hiding SOMETHING behind all this subterfuge about Dharma. ---
**Author:** ![wasson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/4da419/32.png) [@wasson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wasson)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/68 "2009-04-30T16:41:36Z")
> [@Meltdown](#): > > Do we know Dad is there? Have we seen him in 1977? During Ben’s storyline, when he takes over the leadership from Widmore and sends him home on the sub, he makes reference to Widmore’s leaving the island as one of the reasons he’s not fit to be the leader. Perhaps Widmore is off island in 1977. Perhaps he brought Daniel with him. > > That is if Daniel was born by 1977 – as pointed out before the timeline makes it seem likely that he was, but it’s not impossible for him to be born a year later. Widmore leaving on the sub was actually relatively recent if memory serves, like 1996 or so. It was after the purge and Ben had a 4-5 year old Alex with him immediately before going to the sub. As far has Daniel being born 1978 or later… seems like kind of a stretch. The actor was born in 1969 and looks in his late 30’s or early 40’s. Being born in 1978 would have put him at 26 years old when he arrived from the freighter (in 2004)… I don’t buy that. But then again, according to when Ethan was born he was 27 when he arrived at the crash site and he looked close to 40 too, so maybe the producers are just hoping we won’t notice how old people look? ---
**Author:** ![mshar253](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@mshar253](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mshar253)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/69 "2009-04-30T16:47:03Z")
I’d be willing to wager that this season’s finale either reveals that Christian is on the island in 1977 for some shocking reason, OR all the Losties get killed as a result of the incident, leading to Adam and Eve (Sawyer/Juliet) decaying in the jungle. Then the sixth season will focus on flashbacks about why these individual people had to be the ones who went to the island. That is all. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/70 "2009-04-30T16:47:08Z")
> [@Monstre](#): > > Radzinsky is really eager to shoot people… ever since we met him earlier this season. That guy is such a dick. I hope he gets jacked up by Sawyer. ---
**Author:** ![TooSchoolforCool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tooschoolforcool/32/19621_2.png) [@TooSchoolforCool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TooSchoolforCool)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/71 "2009-04-30T16:59:33Z")
> [@Shoeless](#): > > Didn’t someone mention in the Lost thread a week or two ago that the “secret code word” for the season finale plot device was something like “the fork in the outlet”? So yeah, I’m guessing you are right. Note that the code words were nominated and voted for by fans who had no idea what was going to happen. The only nomination that the producers said was “oddly fitting” was something about a garden gnome or something. Something I’m wondering: how in the heck would the Others EVER have supported Daniel’s plan? As far as we know, their entire PURPOSE is to protect the Island. They’re not going to let someone nuke it, and they certainly aren’t going to participate: especially not when they have an easier alternative to try: attack the Swan dig before the drill hits “the energy.” Also, if they followed Daniel’s instructions, it’s currently buried in concrete. How is would ANYONE get to it, let alone get it near enough to the Swan site, in just four hours, even presuming that the Others WOULD help and happen to have a bulldozer around? Because I doubt Jack and Kate could carry the thing on their backs. Unless there’s a lot more about the bomb’s situation we don’t know (like, it’s already on a truck, or you can just blow it up in place and that’s close enough to the Swan to do the trick) why would anyone think that this is an even PLAUSIBLE thing to attempt? Some more things to think about: We’re still not sure what Daniel thinks he can change, and what he can’t. We still don’t know what else is in his notebook. For instance, he seemed to know exactly when Chang would be around (he’s right on time). Maybe that’s just from some Dharma schedule, but it sort of seems like he “knew” that Chang would arrive AND that Chang would refuse to listen to him. That implies that he wrote those events down in his notebook. But you’d think, in that case, the producers would then SHOW HIM DOING THAT so that the audience was clued in. Daniel does act like he thinks he can stop the Incident. Wouldn’t a more plausible way to try that, though, be to appeal directly to the big bosses in Ann Arbor? It would be easy for him to convince people he was from the future if he had enough time, and he had three years. So when did his big “you can change things” epiphany occur? Seems like it happened prior to his sub trip back, because that’s the whole reason he came back. So did he try to appeal to the DeGroots? And how did that play out? Is the reason that Daniel thinks he can change the Incident because his notebook stops recording anything past his return to the Island? Shouldn’t that be a big tipoff for him that something is going to happen to him/the notebook? Does (older) Eloise later rip pages out of the notebook before passing it on so that Daniel misses some crucial information? Was the notebook empty when she first gave it to him, or already filled in? Where does a physical object like a notebook even COME from if no one ever buys it from a store at any point? ---
**Author:** ![Meltdown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Meltdown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meltdown)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/72 "2009-04-30T17:08:42Z")
> [@Gfactor](#): > > Nah. He spoke to young Ben after Alpert fixed him in the Temple. He’s around, probably shagging Ellie. Whoops, that’s right. Nevermind. ---
**Author:** ![TooSchoolforCool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tooschoolforcool/32/19621_2.png) [@TooSchoolforCool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TooSchoolforCool)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/73 "2009-04-30T17:10:28Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > That guy is such a dick. I hope he gets jacked up by Sawyer. We’re pretty sure that his memory gets f’ed up at some point, given that his blast door map is such a work of vague and unreliable guesswork. ---
**Author:** ![Shoeless](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shoeless/32/7099_2.png) [@Shoeless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shoeless)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/74 "2009-04-30T17:49:07Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > That guy is such a dick. I hope he gets jacked up by Sawyer. Well, we do know he winds up dead eventually, if that’s any satisfaction. Isn’t he the one that was living in the Swan with Kelvin (before Desmond showed up) and blew his own brains out? ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/75 "2009-04-30T17:49:09Z")
> [@TooSchoolforCool](#): > > We’re still not sure what Daniel thinks he can change, and what he can’t. We still don’t know what else is in his notebook. For instance, he seemed to know exactly when Chang would be around (he’s right on time). Maybe that’s just from some Dharma schedule, but it sort of seems like he “knew” that Chang would arrive AND that Chang would refuse to listen to him. That implies that he wrote those events down in his notebook. But you’d think, in that case, the producers would then SHOW HIM DOING THAT so that the audience was clued in. I’m thinking that when he first tried his time-travel machine on himself, it sent his mind forward in time. So he learned all that stuff that was going on, only to end up forgetting it. Which would explain why he was crying when he saw the footage of the plane wreckage. Subconsciously he knew that he was headed to the island. > [@TooSchoolforCool](#): > > We’re pretty sure that his memory gets f’ed up at some point, given that his blast door map is such a work of vague and unreliable guesswork. I bet the incident screws up his memory like Daniel’s is. I’m curious to how bad this incident will be. We know that Dharma keeps on working after it, and Chang is still alive afterwards (He was in the Pearl video in 1980) along with the Linuses, the others, and Horace. And I’m wondering what the original purpose of the Swan was. The video said it was to “study” the electromagnetism, but I’m sure Dharma had bigger plans than just to study it. According to Daniel, the type of energy under the Swan is the same type as under the Orchid, just a lot more powerful. And the Orchid is powerful enough to move the island through time and space… ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/76 "2009-04-30T17:54:12Z")
> [@wasson](#): > > Widmore leaving on the sub was actually relatively recent if memory serves, like 1996 or so. It was after the purge and Ben had a 4-5 year old Alex with him immediately before going to the sub. > > As far has Daniel being born 1978 or later… seems like kind of a stretch. The actor was born in 1969 and looks in his late 30’s or early 40’s. Being born in 1978 would have put him at 26 years old when he arrived from the freighter (in 2004)… I don’t buy that. > > But then again, according to when Ethan was born he was 27 when he arrived at the crash site and he looked close to 40 too, so maybe the producers are just hoping we won’t notice how old people look? The actor who plays Miles is only a year younger than the actor who plays Daniel, and he’s still a Baby. The actor who plays Ben was born in 1954, but little Ben seems to have been born mid-late 60’s. So either: A) The producers are just squeezing the ages to make them fit OR B) We’ve got some time travel trouble going on. Maybe the Incident pushes the island ten years back in time, or slows time down on the island for a while. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/77 "2009-04-30T18:00:12Z")
Man there was one piece of absolutely abysmal writing. When Daniel’s Mother told him to stop playing piano because it got in the way of being a good scientist. Everyone knows that music boosts intelligence. ---
**Author:** ![Fenris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fenris/32/498_2.png) [@Fenris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fenris)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/78 "2009-04-30T18:01:39Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > I’m curious to how bad this incident will be. We know that Dharma keeps on working after it, and Chang is still alive afterwards (He was in the Pearl video in 1980) along with the Linuses, the others, and Horace. What I don’t get is…why not shield/turn off all your electronic stuff, and just hit the failsafe and release the damned energy and not spend 20+ years pushing that button. All not-pushing it did was make the sky turn purple and fry electronics in a (say) 20 mile radius. Also, I’m still thinking about this episode, but my first thought is that I was disappointed that after two seasons of Daniel whining “Whatever happened, happened”, his big, shocking revelation was that “Whatever happened, happened…unless the power of the human heart changes things”. Troo-Luv? C’mon. Also, where is John/Ben/Sun? Also Rose/Bernard/Vincent? ---
**Author:** ![Morbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morbo/32/389_2.png) [@Morbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morbo)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/79 "2009-04-30T18:22:16Z")
Why didn’t they keep going in the Jeep? They’re on a tight time schedule, there’s only four hours to go…and they abandon the Jeep and start walking?! Lock that differential and take that thing as far into the jungle as it will go! ---
**Author:** ![well\_he\_s\_back](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/3ab097/32.png) [@well\_he\_s\_back](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/well_he_s_back)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746/80 "2009-04-30T18:48:50Z")
Posted by Fenris > [@](#): > > What I don’t get is…why not shield/turn off all your electronic stuff, and just hit the failsafe and release the damned energy and not spend 20+ years pushing that button. All not-pushing it did was make the sky turn purple and fry electronics in a (say) 20 mile radius. This point really annoys me too. Any speculation/explanation out there? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-5-14-the-variable/494746.md?page=5)