# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 103
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2041 "2009-07-22T15:40:11Z")
I’m torn on Jimmy. From my perspective, I am town Chronos is very very likely town (trusting story’s judgment on diver didn’t work out for me so i’m slower to trust it on chronos). 2 of the other three are mafia: Jimmy, scuba, cardinal Unless: diver and jimmy are mafia. I’m inclined to discount the Jimmy-scuba pair, which strongly implies a cardinal lynch today. But I don’t know whether to trust Jimmy over Scuba or Scuba over Jimmy. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2042 "2009-07-22T15:40:59Z")
**Dawn is at Noon Eastern today, correct?** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2043 "2009-07-22T15:43:45Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I’m inclined to discount the Jimmy-scuba pair, **which strongly implies a cardinal lynch today.** Snipped, and Bolding is mine. I would agree here. Not for your reasons, but Im not sold on Fang being town either. \*\* FOS Cardinal \*\* And, well, I leave Scuba and his alignment to the rest of the game to figure out. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2044 "2009-07-22T15:48:05Z")
This may well be my last post in the game, since I think there’s a reasonable chance I’m the Scum’s next target. I’ve plugged the Day Six votes into my program, and I’m reminded rather strongly of the fact that it’s just a beta test: The program considers some scenarios possible now that it did not consider possible yesterDay. This is because the program only assumes that the sum total of Scum voting over the course of the entire game has been scummier than Town, but does not assume that the running total on each Day was scummier. The thing is, I don’t know whether I should consider just these results, just yesterDay’s results, the union of the two, or the intersection. If Scum has voted more scummily than Town every single day, then the intersection would be the proper choice, but I think it quite plausible that, since my program started to produce meaningful results as of yesterDay, the Scum might have deliberately made a concerted effort to bus one of them in order to throw it off. If that’s the case, then yesterDay’s results are most meaningful. But enough preamble-- The results: Telcontar Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood Telcontar Zeriel ShadowFacts cardinal\_fang Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts cardinal\_fang Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood cardinal\_fang Total number of possibilities: 4 Telcontar 2 AllWalker 0 Chronos 0 Imaginary Fiend 0 Meeko 0 USCDiver 0 pedescribe 0 Scuba Ben 1 Zeriel 4 ShadowFacts 4 Jimmy Chitwood 2 storyteller 0 cardinal\_fang 3 If we intersect this with the previous results, all that’s left is three possibilities, and **cardinal\_fang** is Scum in all three of them. If this is the proper interpretation, then we should clearly lynch **cardinal**. On the other hand, if we go with the other interpretation, then we’re back where we were yesterDay, and the Scum are one of the following five scenarios: 1: Jimmy and Diver 2: Jimmy and Scuba 3: Jimmy and cardinal 4: cardinal and Scuba 5: cardinal and Telcontar But we aren’t in completely the same situation we were in yesterDay, since Diver is dead now, which means we might lose the game toMorrow. If Diver was Scum (that is, we’re in scenario 1), then the last Scum is definitely Jimmy, but we also still have one mislynch allowed, so that’s not so worrisome: We can afford to wait a bit to lynch **Jimmy** in that case. And if **cardinal** is Scum, then we can of course afford to lynch him toMorrow. Only in the case that **Jimmy** and **Scuba** are Scum (case 2) will we lose, if we lynch **cardinal** toMorrow. Either way, I think Town’s best hope is to lynch **cardinal** toMorrow, and I urge you all to do so, if I’m not there. There are three possible outcomes: If he’s Town and the game ends, well, good game to **Jimmy** and **Scuba**. If he’s Town and the game doesn’t end, then **Diver** must have been Scum after all, and therefore also **Jimmy** , so we lynch **Jimmy** the next day for the win. And if he’s Scum, then good for us, but I can’t give any real advice on where to go from there. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2045 "2009-07-22T15:48:50Z")
I had a halfway decent post here, then I realized there’s not enough info. We’re down to 6 players, about to be 5. That leaves 10 pairs of potential Scum, assuming that USCDiver was accurately reported as Town – a point which leaves disagreement. So far, **Telcontar** has evaluated four pairs: - Him and me – unlikey - Cardinal and Telconatar – possible - Cardinal and me – possible - Cardinal and Jimmy – possible I’d like to go through the other pairs, as soon as we know which 10 pairs exist. Or the Scum could be generous and decline their night kill. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2046 "2009-07-22T15:49:17Z")
OOG A good as time as any: I do intend to continue playing Mafia. However, **I will be sitting out the immediate next Mafia game.** I also am going to ask to be spoiled, and hopefully, I can find someone else who is not playing, to answer any and all questions I have. There are obvious holes in my game still. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2047 "2009-07-22T15:51:38Z")
Chronos, for now I concur with your conclusions, with one note: In your outcome 1, where we lynch cardinal and lose the game, I lose too. I only wish I could convince people of this. (But of course everybody would say the same thing.) ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2048 "2009-07-22T15:54:41Z")
I just noticed Chronos’ quote. – As we are debating Diver. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2049 "2009-07-22T16:02:47Z")
\*\* After a thoroughly confusing Day, everyone fell right asleep and did not awake until morning. When you did awake, you found that Meeko had been taken away. Like usual, you found his body hanging from a tree in the forest. But who was Meeko? **Meeko, who was James “Sawyer” Ford, a Survivor Gunman, has died.** You were all just about ready to start your day when another odd event happened. From out of the forest came the same column of smoke from yesterday, only this time it moved quietly and slowly. It paused and began to compress, and before your very eyes, it turned into something that looked like a person. The person approached all of the Survivors. It was John Locke! He said, “Hey, everyone. Let me begin by assuring that I am indeed dead. I’ll just be……’moderating’ your discussion today. Thanks!” He turned back into smoke and rose into the air.\* By the way, this is the last full length Day. Normally at this point, I would considerably shorten the Day/Night cycle, but I won’t have good internet access for a few days and don’t want anything huge happening while I’m gone. Storyteller will track the votes and moderate, but please don’t overwhelm him with questions regarding the game mechanics. Day 7 will end Tuesday, July 28 at Noon Eastern. I will be back by then and the remaining Days and Nights, if any, will be considerably shorter. Hey, take a couple real life days off if you want. You have a little extra time on Day 7. I appreciate everyone’s understanding. 🙂 \*I’m going on vacation for 5 days or so and Storyteller is guest moderating. He is not back in the game and the whole “John Locke” smoke thing is just color. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2050 "2009-07-22T16:05:16Z")
Been Real… Been Fun. **You guys have all that you asked for, from me, above. Please read it.** See you all later. And Finally, I get my life back!!! ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2051 "2009-07-22T16:09:39Z")
Bummer. **Meeko** , you will be missed. We have the following 11 possible pairs: Pairs involving Chronos Chronos & me Chronos & Telcontar Chronos & Jimmy Chronos & cardinal\_fang Pairs involving me me & cardinal\_fang me & Jimmy me & Telcontar Other pairs of Living players cardinal\_fang & Jimmy cardinal\_fang & Telcontar Jimmy & Telcontar Possibility from the Smoke Monster Jimmy & USCDiver I split Chronos out separately because of the general assessment that **AllWalker** may have left a breadcrumb that Chronos is Town. (As has been mentioned a few zillion times over.) I split out the 3 other pairs involving me as I know my own alignment, and therefore cannot provide meaningful information on them. Of the remaining 4 pairs: I want to continue discussion on the possibility of **Jimmy** having lied about **USCDiver**. Because if Jimmy is Town, then (from my point of view) there is one possible endgame pair: **Vote cardinal\_fang FOS Telcontar** ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2052 "2009-07-22T16:10:40Z")
Ick. Bold yellow fails. **FOS Telcontar** _bonk_ (hits head on 60 second post timeout yet again) ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2053 "2009-07-22T16:17:11Z")
Okay, now that we’re down to 5 I’ll do as scuba suggests. Here are all the pairs that I see (total: 11) Chronos pairs (4): Chronos and Scuba Chronos and Telcontar Chronos and Jimmy Chronos and Cardinal These I discount because I trust that Chronos is town based on allwalker’s breadcrumbs. It’s a chance, but I’ll take it. The pairs involving me (3): Telcontar and Jimmy Telcontar and Cardinal Telcontar and Scuba Well, I discount these because I’ve read my PM and am sure that I am town. To elaborate further: Up until yesterday, Jimmy and I hadn’t agreed on much of anything. One of us may have even voted for the other at some point, though i couldn’t swear to it. That we agreed on diver has made the program suspicious, but i think that’s a thin reed. Scuba i’ve tried to kill on more than one day, so I think it’s pretty clear I’m not with him. Cardinal…Cardinal and I agree a lot. I know the pair is impossible, but i couldn’t prove that to you. Other Pairs (4): Cardinal and Jimmy Cardinal and Scuba Scuba and Jimmy Jimmy and Diver All of these strike me as possible but I really think scuba would have sided with Jimmy on that lynch vote yesterday had they been on the same team, there was no history there prohibiting it and scum would be crazy to leave that tie unbroken; it would have been so easy to justify. Instead, only cardinal and I did. Thus that is a strike against scuba and jimmy and potentially a mark in favor of cardinal and jimmy. Scuba and cardinal is highly plausible to me as well. So, from my seat, cardinal looks pretty sketchy. It’s hard to hide two mafia in a crowd of 5, so POI might be really helpful here. From the perspective of everyone else, I think there’s a plausible me-cardinal case, but that could also be tested with a cardinal lynch (which in turn guards against cardinal-jimmy and cardinal-scuba). Anyone have a different read? POI analysis stands and falls on potentially fallible assumptions. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2054 "2009-07-22T16:19:54Z")
I see Scuba was even faster than me. Start that before dawn, scuba? If cardinal is mafia, then it’s likely scuba, jimmy, and me in 3 person come Tomorrow (with no real information). I’ve no idea who I’d vote for in that setup. So tentatively thinking cardinal for POI reasons, but I’ll leave the vote off until people (especially cardinal) have a chance to comment on the pairings. No FOS either. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2055 "2009-07-22T16:32:15Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I see Scuba was even faster than me. Start that before dawn, scuba? Nope, I just type fast. True story: A couple of weeks ago, I was demonstrating a remote access web site to my supervisor. The remote access included a chat feature. I typed something really fast to demonstrate the feature, and my supervisor thought it was gibberish – and then saw that I had typed and sent, “This is a test.” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2056 "2009-07-22T17:00:19Z")
Well, shucks, I _still_ don’t get to read the Forbidden Thread? But I want to know what people are saying behind our backs! 🙂 Also, sort of welcome back-ish to **storyteller**. Quoth **Scuba\_Ben** : > [@](#): > > Chronos, for now I concur with your conclusions, with one note: > > In your outcome 1, where we lynch cardinal and lose the game, I lose too. I only wish I could convince people of this. I’m not sure I follow. The only scenario where lynching **cardinal** loses the game for Town is one where you’re Scum. You shouldn’t be worried about that scenario: Either you’re Town and know it’s not true, or you’re Scum and would win if that happens. Meanwhile, I might as well put my money where my mouth is, and \*\*Vote cardinal\_fang for the reasons outlined in what I thought was my [farewell post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11365741#post11365741). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2057 "2009-07-22T17:02:17Z")
OK, that was an interesting mangling of the code I just managed. It comes out readable for me, but just in case, **Vote cardinal\_fang** ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2058 "2009-07-22T17:02:36Z")
Hello, again, everyone. \ ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2059 "2009-07-22T17:05:15Z")
I guess this is a good a time as any for my very first vote count post: cardinal\_fang (2): Scuba\_Ben, Chronos ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2009, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2060 "2009-07-22T19:45:59Z")
Quoth **Telcontar** : > [@](#): > > All of these strike me as possible but I really think scuba would have sided with Jimmy on that lynch vote yesterday had they been on the same team, there was no history there prohibiting it and scum would be crazy to leave that tie unbroken; it would have been so easy to justify. Instead, only cardinal and I did. Thus that is a strike against scuba and jimmy and potentially a mark in favor of cardinal and jimmy. Scuba and cardinal is highly plausible to me as well. To be clear here, by “strike against scuba and jimmy”, you mean “against the possibility that they’re the two scum”, correct? And likewise, “in favor of cardinal and jimmy”, you mean “in favor of the possibility that they’re the scum”? Because that could be interpreted the other way around, but it looks from context like that’s what you mean. And I’m a little comforted that someone else other than **Scuba** or **Jimmy** finds the Scuba/Jimmy scenario unlikely (of course they would both say it’s unlikely). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=102) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=104)