# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 106
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2009, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2101 "2009-07-27T18:36:07Z")
> [@](#): > > If we don’t lynch scuba this game and he turns out to be scum i’m going to feel like such an idiot after all this time 😛 That’s about how I felt about **Mahaloth** last game-- He was my #2 on my list of suspicion for the entire game, but others kept cropping up who looked just a little more suspicious. To be fair, my last #1, **Rysto** , was also a genuine Scum, but I never even got a chance to vote for him, since I woke up dead that morning. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2102 "2009-07-28T00:53:01Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > NETA: > Do you suspect a scuba-me pair, or a jimmy-scuba pair? I am voting for **Scuba** as a more-or-less protest vote since it is not going to make any difference, for the reasons I explained. I have not examined the pairings relationships in any great depth. Using your approach of looking at yesterday’s votes, I find that a **Telcontar** / **Jimmy** pairing is the more likely, with clueless me joining up to create the tie (which would suck, because that means I really hurt Town). That said, I do not think **Jimmy** has played Scummily. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2103 "2009-07-28T01:23:16Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > [snip] > > I could in principle move my vote if someone convinced me of the Scuba-Jimmy pair, but it’d have to be pretty strong evidence. In all of the other pairs that my analysis shows as even plausible, you’re the (or at least a) correct vote. So you’d have to convince me that the Scuba-Jimmy pair is more likely than all other pairs combined. I would not know where to begin, outside of voting record: [spoiler] **Day 1** Jimmy: Fiend Scuba: none (paul was MIA) fang: Fiend **Day 2** Jimmy: Chronos Scuba: Oredigger fang: Chronos **Day 3** Jimmy: Chronos Scuba: Fiend fang: Chronos **Day 4** Jimmy: Shadow Scuba: Shadow fang: Shadow **Day 5** Jimmy: Zeriel Scuba: Diver fang: Diver **Day 6** Jimmy: Diver Scuba: Jimmy fang: Diver[/spoiler] Which goes a long way towards convincing me that a **Jimmy** / **Scuba** pairing is… not likely. On the other hand, **Jimmy** and I could be brothers, based on voting record. Given the fact that my voting has been terrible, **Jimmy** is either Scum or as bad as I am. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2104 "2009-07-28T01:28:37Z")
Well, I’m not very good. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2105 "2009-07-28T01:29:38Z")
(Of course, **fang** , one problem you might run into there is that **Chronos** has been pretty well sure I’m scum for a couple Days now). ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2106 "2009-07-28T01:34:31Z")
I ran across an [interesting vote](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11297888&postcount=1129) in my game review travels. Previously, on _Lost_: **Chronos** and **Fiend** [were all tied up](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11297769&postcount=1109) at the end of Day 3. Four minutes prior to the deadline, **ShadowFacts** (who had a two-off vote on **Scuba** ) saved **Chronos** and lynched **Fiend** with a last-second vote-switch. Why would a know-scum risk lynching a Townie in order to break a tie between two (presumed) Townies? Is “letting both players live” that big of a risk (i.e., that common of a tie-breaker)? Why did **Shadow** save **Chronos**? ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2107 "2009-07-28T01:36:17Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > (Of course, **fang** , one problem you might run into there is that **Chronos** has been pretty well sure I’m scum for a couple Days now). Great, that is just what I needed at this point, a problem! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2108 "2009-07-28T01:38:58Z")
> [@](#): > > (Of course, fang, one problem you might run into there is that Chronos has been pretty well sure I’m scum for a couple Days now). Well, more sure than I am for **Diver** , **Telcontar** , or **Scuba** , at least. As of about 15 hours from now, though, I’ll either go to certain you’re Scum (if **cardinal** turns up Town), or have very little clue (if he turns up Scum). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2109 "2009-07-28T01:44:07Z")
> [@](#): > > Why would a know-scum risk lynching a Townie in order to break a tie between two (presumed) Townies? Is “letting both players live” that big of a risk (i.e., that common of a tie-breaker)? > > Why did Shadow save Chronos? I can only speculate, of course. But from my point of view, I know (and **ShadowFacts** knew) that there were two Townies on the chopping block, so his reason certainly wasn’t that he wanted to save a fellow Scum. I’m guessing that he feared that if it went to a tie, that those who left their vote on a third party would look suspicious, so he made sure that he didn’t garner suspicion on himself by picking one of us basically arbitrarily. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2110 "2009-07-28T01:45:24Z")
Well, then he’s scum. Into thy hands I commend **fang’s** spirit. In other news, I’ll be taking the bar exam tomorrow and Wednesday, so, uh. Might not be around. I might lynch myself before anybody else gets the chance… ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2111 "2009-07-28T01:46:25Z")
NETA - my prior post was in response to 2108. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2112 "2009-07-28T01:51:25Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Well, more sure than I am for **Diver** , **Telcontar** , or **Scuba** , at least. As of about 15 hours from now, though, I’ll either go to certain you’re Scum (if **cardinal** turns up Town), or have very little clue (if he turns up Scum). Or… certain of _everyone’s_ alignment, because the game will be over. **Chronos** , you may have mentioned this: do you have an opinion on **Diver** ’s alignment? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2113 "2009-07-28T02:17:11Z")
> [@](#): > > Chronos, you may have mentioned this: do you have an opinion on Diver’s alignment? My view is that it doesn’t actually matter at this point. If he’s Scum, then clearly, so is **Jimmy** , and the result would be that you’d turn up Town, everyone would see that the game isn’t over yet, so **Jimmy** must have been lying, and whoever’s alive toMorrow would lynch him. Alternately, if he’s Town, well, then, there’s not exactly anything we can do to help him any more (aside from finishing off whoever the Scum actually are). Given that it doesn’t matter, I see no reason to expend any effort trying to figure out anything more about him. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2114 "2009-07-28T03:24:35Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > My view is that it doesn’t actually matter at this point. If he’s Scum, then clearly, so is **Jimmy** , and the result would be that you’d turn up Town, everyone would see that the game isn’t over yet, so **Jimmy** must have been lying, and whoever’s alive toMorrow would lynch him. Alternately, if he’s Town, well, then, there’s not exactly anything we can do to help him any more (aside from finishing off whoever the Scum actually are). Given that it doesn’t matter, I see no reason to expend any effort trying to figure out anything more about him. Well, I hope The Sausage Grinder Program works, then. When I turn up Town Tomorrow, by your logic (if I understand it correctly), we lose if **Jimmy** and **Scuba** are Scum ( **Diver** town), and can win if **Jimmy** and **Diver** are Scum. Let’s hope **Diver** was Scum, then, because that’s the only way we can win. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2115 "2009-07-28T03:39:22Z")
> [@](#): > > Well, I hope The Sausage Grinder Program works, then. No results from the program are needed for the conclusion about **Diver**. The only thing we need to know is that if **Diver** is Scum, then so is **Jimmy** , but that’s set in stone now from **Jimmy** ’s description of what happened with the Smoke Monster. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2116 "2009-07-28T03:54:58Z")
Don’t know if I’ll get a chance to check-in tomorrow morning, so I’ll post a couple of thoughts. I don’t have much more to go on than what I have already posted, but here it is nonetheless. I am assuming **Chronos** is Town. **AllWalker** can set us all straight one way or the other after the game, but my n00b brain has bought into the breadcrumbs. In reality, I am more annoyed at **Scuba\_Ben** than anything else, mostly by his post-count “updates,” which continue to drive-by smudge the low-posters (i.e. me) without putting money to mouth. That said, I don’t see his play as Scummier than the others. I was hoping someone would jump on my vote, but since I am Town there is really no reason for the Scum to do so. **Unvote Scuba\_Ben** **Jimmy** ’s voting record is eerily similar to mine – that alone should tell me something. He has never attracted my attention because his play has been similar to mine (I found myself agreeing with him a lot), and since my play has not been good, well… I suspect he may well be Scum playing a very good game, and if that is the case: hats off. \*\*Telcontar \*\*has played a similar smooth game, and his voting record is also not great. While there were no gotchas when I reviewed his posts, I did note that he was carefully nudging us away from the Day 1 name claim that could have broken the game open for Town, and the timing of some of his posts was suspicious. I will also note that while he is playing up his “attacks” on **Scuba** , in reality his voting did not reflect that, and it could just as easily be cred-posturing. So, for the record, my last vote will be: **Vote Telcontar** I am reasonably sure he is Scum, and torn between **Jimmy** and **Scuba**. Based on Yesterday’s vote, though, I would have to lean **Jimmy**. ETA: **Jimmy** , best of luck on the bar exam! ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2117 "2009-07-28T12:16:18Z")
The Vote Count, Revised: **cardinal\_fang (4)** - Scuba\_Ben, Chronos, Telecontar, Jimmy Chitwood **Telecontar (1)** - cardinal\_fang By way of helpful reminder, the Day will end at 12:00PM EST today, Tuesday, July 28 (or in slightly less than four hours). ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2118 "2009-07-28T13:50:20Z")
Let’s hope we’re right! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2119 "2009-07-28T14:52:17Z")
\*\*Thanks so much for guest moderating from the grave, John “Storyteller” Locke. I am indeed back from vacation and am here for the end of day, which is in just over 1 hour.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2120 "2009-07-28T15:00:15Z")
I just now returned to the boards, having been away since my last post just after Dawn. I’m terribly sorry about that. I see nobody addressed my question and assessed Jimmy. And I doubt anybody’s going to change their vote now. My fears are that **Chronos** may be Scum and has been quietly laughing for several Days; and that **Jimmy** may be Scum and has been quietly laughing all Day long. But in skimming Today, I don’t see anything significant that changes matters. I’m not happy with voting to lynch cardinal\_fang, but I wouldn’t be any happier lynching Telcontar either. Plus I have customer reps in the office today, and really REALLY shouldn’t be caught on the forum. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=105) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=107)