# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 107
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2121 "2009-07-28T16:03:21Z")
\*\*Previously on Lost: The Sun stayed up longer than ever, but the Survivors had little to discuss. They slowly gathered around CardinalFang, and slit his throat. But who was CardinalFang? And now on Lost: You have killed CardinalFang, who was Claire Littleton, and Ordinary Survivor. It is now Night. Day begins at noon on Wednesday, July 29. I’m thinking of shrinking Days down to 24 hours. Keep in mind I will not allow a Day to occur on the weekend entirely, but any “weekday” Day will be 24 hours, starting with toMorrow. Is this acceptable to everyone?\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2122 "2009-07-28T16:10:40Z")
Well, that settles matters then. Just to make the case crystal-clear: 1: There is no way the game could have conceivably been balanced with only three Scum. 2: Therefore we started with at least four Scum. 3: We have killed two Scum that we know of. 4: There is at most one Scum alive right now, or the game would be over with a Scum victory. 5: Therefore we must have killed a Scum without knowing it. 6: The only person we killed without learning alignment was **USCDiver**. 7: Therefore **USCDiver** was Scum. 8: **Jimmy Chitwood** claimed absolute knowledge that **USCDiver** was Town. 9: Therefore **Jimmy Chitwood** was lying. 10: Therefore **Jimmy Chitwood** is Scum. Can anyone point out any gaps in this reasoning? ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2123 "2009-07-28T16:13:57Z")
Point 4 implies that we did not start with five Scum, which including point 1 leads to point 2. I’d like to double check point 3. Because if that statement is accurate, your conclusion on 7 is dead to rights. (Pun intended.) I’ll pull **Mahaloth** ’s posts and double check all kills. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2124 "2009-07-28T16:32:37Z")
Here is the list of who Died, in order, with their role, and the post # and link for Mahaloth’s announcement. I have marked the Scum in red and USCDiver in dark orchid. Ichini Sanshigo: Town (519, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11252216#post11252216](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11252216#post11252216)) Tom Scud: Town (579, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259388#post11259388](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259388#post11259388)) Nanook of the North: Town (579, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259388#post11259388](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259388#post11259388)) Oredigger77: Town (860, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11274831#post11274831](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11274831#post11274831)) (no kill on Night 2, 950, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11282776#post11282776](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11282776#post11282776)) Intelligent Fiend: Town (1131, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11297910#post11297910](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11297910#post11297910)) AllWalker: Town Lie Detector (1187, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11304379#post11304379](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11304379#post11304379)) ShadowFacts: SCUM (1474, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11318993#post11318993](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11318993#post11318993)) Pedescribe: Town Paranoid Doctor (1574, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11326701#post11326701](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11326701#post11326701)) Zeriel: SCUM Roleblocker (1750, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11342185#post11342185](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11342185#post11342185)) Storyteller: Town Detective (1836, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11347706#post11347706](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11347706#post11347706)) USCDiver: **UNKNOWN** (1979, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11362177#post11362177](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11362177#post11362177)) Meeko: Town Vigilante (2049, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11365814#post11365814](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11365814#post11365814)) cardinal\_fang: Town (2121, [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11385809#post11385809](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11385809#post11385809)) To echo **Chronos** ’s logic my own way: - If two Scum remained, they would have won. :: Therefore, exactly one Scum remains. - If USCDiver was Town, we would have started with three Scum. - Three Scum, including one roleblocker, would be sorely underpowered against four Town roles and 14 total Town. :: Therefore, USCDiver was probably Scum. - Jimmy told us USCDiver was Town. :: Therefore, Jimmy probably lied. - If Jimmy was Town, he had no reason to lie about USCDiver’s role. :: Therefore Jimmy is Scum. I concur with Chronos; pending a third (Telcontar) check of reasoning, we kill Jimmy and avenge the mislynch of cardinal\_fang. Jimmy, would you prefer a straight blade or a curved blade? ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2125 "2009-07-28T16:33:48Z")
ABWOP: **cardinal\_fang** , I apologize for my misread of you. Save us some nachos in the after-thread. _bonk_ (3 seconds left on the timeout) ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2126 "2009-07-28T16:54:43Z")
I concur in every respect. Let’s revisit story’s analysis: > [@storyteller0910](#): > > Indeed, let’s reassess, because now we know the basic structure of the game: > > TOWN: > Detective - 4 pts > Lie Dectector - 3.5 pts (generous) > Paranoid Doctor - 2.5 pts (being generous) > One-Shot Vig - 1.5 pts > > TOTAL PTS from power roles = 11.5 > > Four Scum means nine vanillas, for a total of 20.5 pts. > > Four Scum, including three ordinary Scum (3 x 4.5 pts = 13.5 pts) and one roleblocker (6 pts) comes out to 19.5 points. Replace one of those vanillas with a Godfather (7 pts) and the Scum go up to 22 pts. Either arrangement is possible. Five Scum is right now as it would be grossly imbalanced, and three Scum would be grossly imbalanced the other way. > > Best conclusion: We have three Scum remaining, one roleblocker included, with possibly one Godfather but it doesn’t matter at this point either way. Our chances of getting one toDay are slightly less than 50%, if we pursue only the unknowns. > > Where shall we start? He’s actually shorting the town advantage, town gets +1 points for a day start. So there really have to have been 4 mafia. Scuba’s post count and my recollection both confirm that we’ve killed 2 scum publicly and only have one unknown death. Unless there are somehow two living mafia, that must mean the unknown death was actually scum. If diver had been scum, jimmy would have known due to smoke monster. Therefore jimmy lied. Therefore jimmy is scum. We’ll probably wake up to a dead chronos, which will be rather sad. But then we will avenge him and live out our days peacefully in this island paradise. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2127 "2009-07-28T17:06:32Z")
> [@](#): > > We’ll probably wake up to a dead chronos, which will be rather sad. Eh, I’m fine with that. Will both of you be online Wednesday? As long as you both have a chance to vote, I see no reason not to shorten the Day to 24 hours, as **Mahaloth** suggests. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2128 "2009-07-28T17:16:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Eh, I’m fine with that. > > Will both of you be online Wednesday? As long as you both have a chance to vote, I see no reason not to shorten the Day to 24 hours, as **Mahaloth** suggests. I’ve no objection. certainly would be nice to be done pre weekend. I’ll be around tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2129 "2009-07-28T17:23:56Z")
Unless Jimmy has the most awesome defense imaginable, we’re just waiting for Dawn so we can cast our votes. I see no reason to stretch things out any longer than we have to. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2130 "2009-07-28T17:55:49Z")
**Woohoo**! Town lives! Go get 'em, guys. I enjoyed my first crack at this – thanks for putting up with me. Have fun the rest of the game. **Nanook** : Spirit Martini, please. Gin. Very dry. Very cold. With some of those ghost olives stuffed with bleu cheese. Not that ethereal kind! The good stuff… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Nanook\_of\_the\_North\_Shore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/bc8723/32.png) [@Nanook\_of\_the\_North\_Shore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nanook_of_the_North_Shore)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2131 "2009-07-28T18:00:46Z")
Sorry, I don’t do the bartender thing. I’m more of the cranky old ghost who hangs out in the corner grumbling about how much better things were when I was alive. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2132 "2009-07-28T18:42:13Z")
**Nanook** , in Farmer/Rancher Werewolf, I became the bartender – after I Died. So quit your griping about how you’re Dead and get on with your life. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2133 "2009-07-28T21:47:46Z")
Out of context, my last post came across as snarky. I was attempting to paraphrase Reg Shoe in _The Fifth Elephant_. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2134 "2009-07-29T16:00:20Z")
\*\*It was a lonely, quiet, Night for the remaining Survivors. When they awoke, Chronos was dead, laying there right in front of them. Looks like the Others aren’t even trying to hide their kills anymore. Chronos, who was Michael Dawson, an Ordinary Survivor, is dead. It is now Day. Day Eight ends in 24 hours, on Thursday, July 30, at Noon Eastern.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2135 "2009-07-29T16:01:53Z")
Not much surprise. Well, let’s put this baby to bed. **Vote Jimmy Chitwood for the win**. Also, I will not be on this evening or tomorrow. So barring a defense post in the next 3 hours, that’s my final vote. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2136 "2009-07-29T16:04:23Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > Not much surprise. > > Well, let’s put this baby to bed. **Vote Jimmy Chitwood for the win**. > > Also, I will not be on this evening or tomorrow. So barring a defense post in the next 3 hours, that’s my final vote. Concur. **Vote Jimmy Chitwood**. I will be on tomorrow so, Jimmy, feel free to try to change my mind. Unfortunately the game math really does dictate your guilt, so I’m pretty much set. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2137 "2009-07-29T16:15:06Z")
OK, so now can I say that I’m really truly confirmed, no really, believe me? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2138 "2009-07-29T16:23:09Z")
**ghost of Chronos** , that still doesn’t establish whether **AllWalker** truly left behind the breadcrumb that we think he did. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2139 "2009-07-29T19:18:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, so now can I say that I’m really truly confirmed, no really, believe me? 😉 Nope, you get debate about what you are in the spoiled thread. Trust me, I’ve been there. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2009, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/2140 "2009-07-29T23:22:23Z")
OoooooOOOOooooOOOOoooo… _drags the Ghost of Meeko back to the afterlife._ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=106) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=108)