# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/201 "2009-06-12T19:15:20Z")
> [@](#): > > No matter what, we do not get a free mislynch from a blocked or otherwise prevented Night kill. If there’s a Vig, a successful kill of Scum does not get us a free mislynch. However, a Vig who accidentally hits a Townie does cost us a mislynch. In other words, whatever number of mislynches we have, we will need a lot of hard work from the power roles to increase it; however, if there’s a Vig and (s)he chooses poorly, they can decrease it more easily than we’d perhaps like. Please show your work: Near as I can figure, with an odd number of players, a successful Vig hit or Doctor block or the like puts us from dead on mislynch _n_ to 50-50 after mislynch _n_. **Mahaloth** has not told us (I don’t think) how a tie is handled, but it seems at least plausible to me that there’s a chance that a tie could go in favor of Town. Unless you know otherwise? ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/202 "2009-06-12T19:16:42Z")
Hilarious! Well summed, sir. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/d9b06d/32.png) [@Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichini_Sanshigo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/203 "2009-06-12T20:29:31Z")
Nice summation, **storyteller**. Seeing it laid out like that also gives us some indication of what power roles would be, if they had a prominent role in this game (I think **Mahaloth** said they wouldn’t). One, possible two doctors (one of whom is Other), maybe a traitor role of some sort (again, possibly both for town and scum, based n Michael and Juliet), maybe a Vig who runs off half-cocked after everyone tells them to stay with the camp (Kate), and, based on Mikhail and Richard, a scum who’s hard to kill (immune to a NK by Vig maybe? I doubt immune to lynch.) ---
**Author:** ![Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/d9b06d/32.png) [@Ichini\_Sanshigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ichini_Sanshigo)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/204 "2009-06-12T20:31:31Z")
NETA: Of course, that’s all assuming that the names mean anything other than generic markers for Survivors and Others. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/205 "2009-06-12T22:06:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Please show your work: Near as I can figure, with an odd number of players, a successful Vig hit or Doctor block or the like puts us from dead on mislynch _n_ to 50-50 after mislynch _n_. **Mahaloth** has not told us (I don’t think) how a tie is handled, but it seems at least plausible to me that there’s a chance that a tie could go in favor of Town. Unless you know otherwise? In every game of Mafia I’ve ever played or moderated, the game ends when there are an equal number of Scum vs. Town. Assuming one Doc-block or Vig-hit, our last mislynch would put us at X Scum and X+1 Town. Following that Night’s kill, we’d be tied at Dawn and lose. Unless _you_ know differently? ---
**Author:** ![Imaginary\_Fiend](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f6c823/32.png) [@Imaginary\_Fiend](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Imaginary_Fiend)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/206 "2009-06-12T23:10:12Z")
Wow. Thanks for the character info **Storyteller0910**. I’m another one of the Lost illiterate, so this is useful. Going back to a topic from earlier today, I’m interested in hearing more discussion about the voting permutations I’ve seen suggested. It seems like it could be helpful, but I don’t feel I know enough about it to contribute meaningfully either way. Also, (throwing it out there just to see if it sinks or swims) would it in any way be valuable to list with your vote the person you’re _least_ likely to vote for on a particular day? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2009, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/207 "2009-06-12T23:15:53Z")
I’ve always seem it to be “when the Scum controls the vote”, or “when over half of the remaining players are Scum”, or “when Scum outnumbers Town”. None of those is met with equal numbers. But to be official about it, What precisely is the Scum win condition in this game? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/208 "2009-06-13T00:46:56Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Hilarious! Well summed, sir. 😃 I don’t follow. Are you calling someone scum here? Who? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/209 "2009-06-13T02:15:40Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I > What precisely is the Scum win condition in this game? **The Others win when they control the vote.** ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/210 "2009-06-13T02:17:41Z")
Thanks, Story, that saves us LOST neophytes a hell of a lot of wiki surfing when names come out. Otherwise: It’s Day One, and it’s going to be happening over a weekend. Lynch the Lurker is DEFINITELY a bad idea now. (On that note, I’m hiking and won’t be back until late Sunday or Monday morning.) ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/211 "2009-06-13T02:21:04Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I don’t follow. Are you calling someone scum here? Who? Um, no. I was just commending **storyteller** on his fun Lost character summary. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/212 "2009-06-13T02:26:33Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’ve always seem it to be “when the Scum controls the vote”, or “when over half of the remaining players are Scum”, or “when Scum outnumbers Town”. None of those is met with equal numbers. But to be official about it, > What precisely is the Scum win condition in this game? This seems to me like a rather transparent attempt to pretend to have no knowledge of the scum. Vote Chronos ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/213 "2009-06-13T02:37:20Z")
> [@](#): > > This seems to me like a rather transparent attempt to pretend to have no knowledge of the scum. No, it was a transparent attempt to find out which interpretation was correct, mine or **storyteller** ’s. And it appears that my interpretation was in fact correct, so what I was displaying was hardly a lack of knowledge of Scum. Why does this make me more suspicious than **storyteller**? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/214 "2009-06-13T02:39:49Z")
**Pedescribe** , that’s a pretty big reach. I’ve seen games where equal Scum and Town alive at Dawn is a scum win, since it’s guaranteed that scum win eventually in that situation unless there is a living doc or other special power. Plus, it’s a relevant question for him to ask, since he was being questioned on his math. **FOS Pedescribe** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/215 "2009-06-13T03:27:23Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > This seems to me like a rather transparent attempt to pretend to have no knowledge of the scum. > > Vote Chronos \*\*Bleached. \*\* Wait. Wait. Ok. :eek: Pede is voting for Chronos? Pede, you just moderated a game where Chronos did the exact same song and dance… Interesting. I’m not going to make the same mistake I made Crimson, and vote someone just on their play style. Yet, I can’t ignore this either. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/216 "2009-06-13T03:39:10Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > **FOS Pedescribe** FOS? ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/217 "2009-06-13T05:13:58Z")
OK, I am caught up. Couple things: Ranking votes: I agree that this gives scum an easy way to manipulate bandwagons. Do not want. Name claim: (Keep in mind I am a n00b.) This only works if the names are aligned (which **Mahaloth** has confirmed), and we know which is which (per **storyteller** ’s detailed posts). The main risk is that the “Jack” character (doctor) is exposed (if he exists). What if we ask Jack to false-claim a vanilla survivor name? Their risk then becomes the same as a scum false claim, only it’s 3-5 of them and one of us (albeit a powerful us). If _x_ people false claim, we are assured anywhere between _x_ and _x-1_ scum, and possibly our own doc. We get a 50/50 shot at each scum, costing us a possible mislynch for each one, but that works in our favour, no? (1+1 trade, worst case?) Further, if the doc can self-protect, the scum may lose the advantage of a NK – if they gamble and lose, they’ve wasted a night action and we’ve identified our doc. Still a gamble even if the doc can’t self-protect, because the scum don’t know that. I am not experienced enough to understand what a verified town doc means to the game mechanics. Seems kind of WIFOM: if the doc self-protects each night, the scum can’t NK them, so they start on other townies, then the doc starts protecting others, then the scum might hit the doc, who might self-protect…, etc. **Chronos** , you are a rocket scientist: can you run an analysis like you did in The Crimson Glyph? For _x_ scum, _y_ townies, _z_ names, and _j_ town-aligned names, assume a random claim order, random scum (false) name selection, and random town doc (false) name selection. What are the odds our doc false-claims, and the odds we get _k_ scum false-claims? At first glance it seems that the odds of the latter are 3-5 times the odds of the former, and only if a Jack-Doctor exists. If they don’t, absent any other obvious name correlation, it’s all scum. If **Chronos** can do that, one or more folks would need to check his work in case he is scum. I do not know enough to weigh what an outed doc is worth in terms of potential scum lynches, but plenty of folks here do. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/218 "2009-06-13T05:17:17Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > No, it was a transparent attempt to find out which interpretation was correct, mine or **storyteller** ’s. And it appears that my interpretation was in fact correct, so what I was displaying was hardly a lack of knowledge of Scum. Why does this make me more suspicious than **storyteller**? Hmm. Point taken. Unvote Chronos ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/219 "2009-06-13T06:09:13Z")
**pedescribe** , that was a little odd. Mostly because it was a little n00bish - either a poor attempt for Scum to start a bandwagon, or an overeager Townie hunting desperately for a Scum tell. I wont belabour the point esp. since you retracted the vote, and considering that on Day 1 votes get thrown around based on very little. Still, I’m putting it out there that I found that to be strange, though not necessarily Scummy. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2009, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/220 "2009-06-13T14:57:43Z")
**pedescribe’s** vote definitely looked like a big reach to me, but he withdrew it with Chronos’ explanation, and this _is_ Day One, so…meh. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=12)