# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 32
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/621 "2009-06-19T22:02:12Z")
Just kidding: **unvote Meeko** > [@Meeko](#): > > **Vote NAF1138** > > What? um, NAF isn’t playing in this game. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/622 "2009-06-19T22:11:02Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > um, NAF isn’t playing in this game. Exactly why I said ““What?”” – to get at the fact that I knew it wasn’t right. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/623 "2009-06-19T22:15:21Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Ok, checking in to the thread and confirming my role PM. And to help with continuity: > [@USCDiver](#): > > Just kidding: It would appear that my assumption on how Bill voted was correct. [That Bill was voting the player, not the role.] Very funny, USCDiver, let’s start this off the right way now; Who or what is pinging you, on a first impression basis? ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/624 "2009-06-19T22:19:59Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Exactly why I said ““What?”” – to get at the fact that I knew it wasn’t right. So you should probably unvote him. Alright, I’ve skimmed through looking for BillMC’s posts so I can see what my role previously did/said. Thankfully there wasn’t much to read so I don’t have to remember a whole lot of it, and aside from **Meeko** , hopefully no one else has any preconceived notions about my alignment. Also, for the record, I’m a Lost noob. I watched Season 1 on DVD about 3 years ago, but haven’t seen any of the later episodes. From what I can find, my name seems to match my alignment. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/625 "2009-06-19T22:23:17Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > So you should probably unvote him. **Unvote NAF1138** ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/626 "2009-06-19T22:23:17Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Who or what is pinging you, on a first impression basis? Woah, easy there killer. Before I subbed in, I was reading for entertainment not for comprehension. I’ll have to go back and review things before I start throwing out accusations. I should also mention that my work schedule is more or less a random assortment of days, evenings, nights, weekends etc so I may be online at unpredictible times. Also, I tend to post infrequently and only when I have something important to say. I’ve played in 2.5 games and Modded arguably the most boring game ever on SDMB. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/627 "2009-06-19T22:33:25Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Woah, easy there killer. Before I subbed in, I was reading for entertainment not for comprehension. I’ll have to go back and review things before I start throwing out accusations. > > I should also mention that my work schedule is more or less a random assortment of days, evenings, nights, weekends etc so I may be online at unpredictible times. Also, I tend to post infrequently and only when I have something important to say. I’ve played in 2.5 games and Modded arguably the most boring game ever on SDMB. Ok, apparently I misjudged the rapport we seemed to be having here. I take back the question I had. I just figured that you could provide inisight here. I was just asking for first impressions, not, “USCD, vote now or I FOS you”. sheesh. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/628 "2009-06-19T22:44:11Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > **This honestly still pings me.** > > Jimmy, do you mind clarifying? [Jimmy already did](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11242417&postcount=258), and his explanation makes perfect sense to me: [QUOTE=Jimmy] My point was that asking in the game thread “When would scum join a bandwagon,” you’re asking the scum the question just as well as you’re asking the town. So if you want to know about bandwagons, go look it up somewhere else, don’t ask in the place where the scum are going to read the answer you get! [/QUOTE] He’s right. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2009, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/629 "2009-06-19T23:03:21Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > [Jimmy already did](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11242417&postcount=258), and his explanation makes perfect sense to me: > > He’s right. I forgot that, that post provided an explanation to his voting, AND to my question. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2009, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/630 "2009-06-20T14:44:57Z")
Ok. There is no need to joke, my Reputation goes before me. a LONG way before me. This game started off with a LOT of traffic. Was that just because it was the first day, or what? I mean, yes, I need to reduce my overall post count, but, I can’t really be the only one still interested in playing? Not meant to offend, I just have no clue on how to read the overall activity level for this game. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2009, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/631 "2009-06-20T14:56:14Z")
well, first there wasn’t much talking because it was night. Now there isn’t much talking because it’s the weekend. Not sure about everyone else, but my plans for the day involve someone much cuter than you ;). At this point I’m a little confused about what to think about story v jimmy. They fight like an old married couple. Granted I’m not sure how often scum say “Bite me” to another player; seems a bit risky. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2009, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/632 "2009-06-20T17:10:20Z")
I’m beginning to think the weekend Day start is going to seriously hurt us. Between the depressed conversation at Night and the depressed conversation over the weekend, it doesn’t look like we really have a critical mass to keep conversation going, and of course, without conversation, Town loses. In the hopes of stimulating what conversation we can, I’m going to make my suspicions from earlier official, and **Vote Imaginary Fiend** for voting **Tom Scud** , and for the suspicious vote shift away from him at the end of the Day. I hope that a better case for someone will come up toDay, but for now, that’s the best I’ve got. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2009, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/633 "2009-06-20T18:44:16Z")
What _exactly_ is the case for FOS on Imaginary? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2009, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/634 "2009-06-20T21:33:55Z")
Well, some folks were suspicious of him because he opposed the name-claim so strongly. Personally, I don’t think that was such a big deal. The reason I’m currently voting him is that, first, a late-day vote switch onto a person who turned out to be town looks very bad for the person thus saved, and second, because he voted for **Tom Scud** after it should have been obvious that **Tom** was Town. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/635 "2009-06-21T00:42:09Z")
> [@Imaginary\_Fiend](#): > > Tom strikes me as a balanced, analytical person from his numerous posts. I’m not convinced that he isn’t aware of and actively capitalizing on hindsight bias. He seems to be pushing it pretty hard on his posts to both Ichini and I. Second, Tom has distorted my statements to intimate that I was somehow being inconsistent with my argument. Such a distortion might be a rhetorical tool to help build his case, but it remains dishonest. As I have made clear previously, I tend to view dishonesty as the tool of the Scum. > > Call it childish, but in the absence of a real argument against anyone, my gut tells me that Tom’s attack on those who were against name claiming is calculated. I really want to avoid the perception that I’m finger-pointing because Tom voted for me earlier and I’d like to vote for someone else if a case could be presented, but if time is an issue that’s where I stand. \*\* Snipped and Vote Snipped as well\*\* I think this is the post that Chronos is referring to. Below is a part of Imaginary’s quote. I will comment on other parts, but this excerpt [his summary] actually helps my summary. * * * Call it childish, but in the absence of a real argument against anyone, my gut tells me that Tom’s attack on those who were against name claiming is calculated. * * * I know that most people don’t understand me. I have been sitting here with this post for some time now, trying to find a way that would best express what I am trying to say. My vote for Imaginary follows. Given what we know now, about Tom, I think we need to look back at Imaginary’s vote. Scum essentially has to make up a case against a townie. Based on what Storyteller (IIRC) said earlier, I began to wonder what Imaginary was thinking when he made the cited comments, and subsequent vote. Scum can present pro-town facts strictly by the letter. In our immediate game here, a lot discussion has been made over claiming. There was, for a while, open debate on how much the LOST canon fit into this game. [Did Mahaloth change up the names against the roles, or didn’t he?] In these windows of time, Scum can make seemingly pro-town statements using the best misinformation. It is my guess, that, as scum, Imaginary knew Tom to be town. He saw the chance to color Tom’s comments as "“calculated”. I personally define calculated as taking chances that APPEAR to be boneheaded, if not borderline suicidal, to gamble on a risk that will pay off later. This is what I think Imaginary was thinking when he called Tom comments calculated. – What is the MOST pro town thing I can say, while still getting a scum viewpoint across? But, This logic only pays off, if the person making ““calculated”” comments proves to be scum. If the person proves to be town [As did happen] then the entire gamble of calling someone “scum” based on calculated comments falls apart. Imaginary’s case that Tom is scum no longer holds. I now must question why he made it, and if he was trying to toss it out as a red herring. \*\* Vote Imaginary \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/636 "2009-06-21T00:51:36Z")
NETA : I cited the “calculated” segment again in my comments. I mentioned that I was going to coment on other parts… Those other parts were synonyms of the same “Analytical” and “Balanced”. I believe that if someone is Analytical, they can make cases for both sides of an argument (possibly still showing favor towards, or against one side), and if they are “Balanced” they can make arguments for both sides of an issue equally well. Given that, again, Balanced is not too far removed from Calculated, IMHO, I Was going to simply tie in these words with Calculated, into my post above. By the time I started closing my post (That is, concluding my typing) I compeltely forgot that I was going to get back to these other parts of Imaginary’s comments. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/637 "2009-06-21T01:22:23Z")
At the end of yesterday my vote was sitting on **IF**. Today, I see serious momentum towards lynching him. The case against \*\*IF \*\*has strengthened rather than weakened over the last few days (the vote switching, \*\*Ich’\*\*s and **tom** ’s innocence). While i am not exactly saddened to see **IF** on the block, I would like to sketch a disturbing scenario: Imagine that momentum continues to build against **IF** and we have a high consensus lynch. imagine further that **IF** is town. Not only would we have lynched a townie, we’d have gained virtually no information as it’s so safe to vote **IF**. We go into day three with (likely 3) more dead townies and very little new data. I’d prefer to avoid that. I’m not all that opposed to lynching **IF** if it comes to it, but I’d like to encourage town to look elsewhere before settling on that. On that note, two points: 1.) the apparent vigilantee kill. It is generally bad for a voluntary vigilante to kill the first few nights; they don’t really have the information they need to make a positive contribution. This means that we are either dealing with a noob vigilante (in which case I think town should make it clear they should be more careful) or an involuntary vigilante. there is an argument to be made for an involuntary vigilante being worse than useless and, if we do have one out there, I’d love to hear the town’s perspective on whether they should claim. I’m not up enough on the meta strategy to know the answer; I see points on both sides. 1. A case against someone other than **IF** Among the late votes that killed **Ich** and saved **IF** was **Oredigger** ’s. He originally voted **meeko** , unvoted when **meeko** started looking more innocent and, ultimately, case a late vote for **Ich**. He justified the final vote with a fairly general statement that the case against\*\* Ich \*\*was the best. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11251712&postcount=471](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11251712&postcount=471) the last minute vote switching killed one townie. currently it is a significant contributing factor to the case against **IF.** In a sense, the vote switching helped the mafia regardless of whether **IF** was innocent; it either saved a scum yesterday or will help condemn a townie today. **Oredigger was one of several involved but, unlike the others he: A.) Voted for meeko. Meeko looked like a safe and easy lynch for most of yesterday. Mafia love safe and easy lynches. B.) Didn’t get involved in the drama. yes, drama is anti town, but you’d think mafia would be a bit more concerned about making enemies than story and jimmy** seemed to be. \*\*oredigger \*\*was much closer to the prototypical flying under the radar approach. It’s not the best case I’ve ever made, but my goal is just to get the discussion moving. note: **Oredigger** is away until Monday. **Vote Oredigger** Further note: I’m mildly intoxicated. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/638 "2009-06-21T01:30:08Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Imaginary Fiend(3): Pedescribe, Chronos, Meeko Oredigger(1): Telcontar \*\* ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/639 "2009-06-21T04:38:56Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > the last minute vote switching killed one townie. currently it is a significant contributing factor to the case against **IF.** In a sense, the vote switching helped the mafia regardless of whether **IF** was innocent; it either saved a scum yesterday or will help condemn a townie today. That’s what I’ve been thinking. It would be an interesting and moderately clever move to derail the vote from one Townie to another, because as you said it casts guilt on the saved Townie. For this reason I am more interested in those who voted for **Ichini** , especially those whose vote changed in the dying light of Day. I am going to look over Day 1 with the knowledge the **Tom Scud** , **Nanook** and **Ichini** are Town and see if anything jumps out. ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2009, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/640 "2009-06-21T06:13:01Z")
Okay, I have a lot more information that I need to synthesise, but here is some stuff I found: One of **Tom Scud** ’s [last posts](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11251749&postcount=473): > [@Tom Scud](#): > > First off, IF: I’m sorry that I caused you pain. > > That said, I don’t see any better cases against anyone else: all of the prominent (in my mind) targets could easily be townies: > > Ichini was throwing stuff against the wall, as were we all, this being early on day 1. And he came up with a mafia commonplace: the guy who posts a big info dump that isn’t directly related to scum-hunting could well be a scum trying to look helpful. And applied it. > > Per his non-posting of whether his name and alignment matched, the big push only came with AllWalker’s post (#328) Monday morning, and Ichini didn’t post anything between then and Maha’s post of 4:41 PM (#370). I don’t think lynching people for missing a 6-hour window of gameplay is a good idea. > > His accusation of me looks pretty OMGUS-like to me, but then it would. I guess if it looked to him like Town was heading off in the wrong direction by over-relying on the name-claim analysis, then I certainly looked like the head of the lynch mob. > > BillMC looks more like an underparticipating Townie than a scum: he came in, saw that Meeko had gotten into yet another giant annoying fight, and voted on him. He may well not have stuck around to see Meeko’s claim. Then Real Life came along and kept him away from the game ever since. > > Pede, likewise, looks like someone who got pushed around by Meeko-related annoyance. > > Meeko has claimed convincingly. > > Telcontar I frankly don’t see a case against – his vote against Pede seemed underdetermined, but it was also early in the day before things had firmed up, and there weren’t a lot of better choices at the time. > > And that covers everyone with votes on them, except me. We at least know that this analysis was based on the truth as Tom saw it. That doesn’t make it true, but more likely to be accurate. Out of all the cases yesterDay he saw the one against **IF** not only the best, but the only one that held water. Data point noted. Far more interesting is [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11252502&postcount=531): > [@Tom Scud](#): > > Quick review of the voters for Ichini: (just posting name, post number, time, and very quick summary of reason - no editorial comment implied) > > Chronos - 263, 12:41 PM Sunday- because of switching his story on storyteller. > > Zeriel - 401, 8:22 AM Tuesday - because of switching his story on storyteller. > > AllWalker - 407, 9:43 AM Tuesday - switching his story, not claiming alignment match. > > Oredigger - 471, 8:47 AM today - not convinced about anyone, thought case vs. Ichini was best. > > (Jimmy unvotes IF at this point (472) - convinced by IF’s final plea > > ShadowFacts - 485, 10:04 AM today - switching his story. > > **storyteller** - 490, 10:13 AM today - breaking tie, Ichini’s refusal to claim, generally thinks Ichini is scummier than IF. The list of people who voted in a way that lead to **Ichini** ’s lynch, plus when they voted. In condensed form, the list is: **Chronos Zeriel AllWalker Oredigger Jimmy Chitwood ShadowFacts storyteller** I will first take this chance to say that although I voted for both **Meeko** and ultimately **Ichini** yesterDay, I stand behind those votes. I also still believe that my list of players who did not claim name/alignment agreement is a useful tool, though I probably assigned too much value to it. Nonetheless, here it is again: **storyteller BillMC Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood [del]Ichini[/del]** Now, I am _very_ doubtful that the three names - storyteller, Jimmy and ShadowFacts - are all Scum. Heck, if just one of them are Scum I’d put it down to luck more than anything. This is useful data, but a good argument is stronger. And a good argument is something I will try to look for later. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=31) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=33)