# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/701 "2009-06-22T20:32:36Z")
> [@](#): > > Snipped. > > There are many ways I can take this, pede. Do you mind elaborating? The Scum almost always have their own private board for discussions, but sometimes they’re only allowed to talk on it during the Night. We don’t know whether or not that’s the case in this game, as **Mahaloth** has declined to tell us. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/702 "2009-06-22T21:05:20Z")
I’ve gotta admit, I’m not really seeing much in the cases against **Imaginary Fiend** or **Oredigger**. I’m not really getting a bead on anyone at the moment, but my scumdar is traditionally pretty poorly tuned, especially in the early game. There are two players that I have some suspicions of and I wanted to get my thoughts on record before the end-of-day frenzy happens. **Allwalker** and **Chronos** are both pinging me a bit. **Allwalker** seems to be defending and identifying with **Chronos** a little too much for my tastes. And although he has moved on to some different topics of late, **Chronos** is still coming back to the name claim idea too often. While it may have been pro-town to discuss it at length on Day 1 (and only in hindsight is that apparent), now I’d consider it neutral or slightly anti-town to continue to discuss old topics. I’m going to get a vote on record here and go with **vote Allwalker** ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/703 "2009-06-22T21:21:38Z")
> [@](#): > > And although he has moved on to some different topics of late, Chronos is still coming back to the name claim idea too often. While it may have been pro-town to discuss it at length on Day 1 (and only in hindsight is that apparent), now I’d consider it neutral or slightly anti-town to continue to discuss old topics. Could you be a little more specific? I don’t think I’ve been bringing it back up when the general tone of the conversation is on something else. And it seems to me that I’ve discussed more about yesterDay’s last-minute vote shift than I have about the name claim. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/704 "2009-06-22T21:25:24Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Snipped. > > There are many ways I can take this, pede. Do you mind elaborating? :rolleyes: The scum have to have some sort of private discussion place, otherwise they wouldn’t be able to decide on who to kill. Since they do the kill at night, they almost certainly talk there at night. However, we don’t know if they can during the day. Someone asked earlier (I can find it if you want), but Mahaloth said no comment. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/705 "2009-06-22T22:38:35Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Since they do the kill at night, they almost certainly talk there at night. However, we don’t know if they can during the day. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: You did it yet again. I don’t know if you mean “we don’t know if they can during the day” to imply that they can’t talk over here, or on their board. If it is the former : Then this game is easy, vote all the lurkers. period. That’s all I meant. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/706 "2009-06-22T22:50:27Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > :rolleyes: :rolleyes: > > You did it yet again. > > I don’t know if you mean “we don’t know if they can during the day” to imply that they can’t talk over here, or on their board. > > If it is the former : > > Then this game is easy, vote all the lurkers. period. > That’s all I meant. I want to vote for you SO bad!! ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/707 "2009-06-22T23:00:25Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Could you be a little more specific? Unfortunately, I can’t be more specific because it’s just a hunch and a poorly based one at that when I really go through your posts from the whole Day. If I had something more specific I’d be voting for you. As it is, I wanted to get my FOS on record. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/708 "2009-06-22T23:03:53Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I don’t know if you mean “we don’t know if they can during the day” to imply that they can’t talk over here, or on their board. Oh that’s what you meant. I meant the latter. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/709 "2009-06-22T23:46:43Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > Oh that’s what you meant. > > I meant the latter. Right, I mean, it wouldn’t make sense, but you cant blame me for trying that. Then again, it looks like Diver is… ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2009, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/710 "2009-06-22T23:54:01Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > I want to vote for you SO bad!! Something tells me, I am going to regret doing this. Why do you want to vote for me? Further, if you clam up, how do I learn to play better? … Or, like Mahaloth from Crimson, are you wanting to “feed this”, [Me], into your scummy uberplan? ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/711 "2009-06-23T00:47:54Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > I’ve gotta admit, I’m not really seeing much in the cases against **Imaginary Fiend** or **Oredigger**. I’m not really getting a bead on anyone at the moment, but my scumdar is traditionally pretty poorly tuned, especially in the early game. > > There are two players that I have some suspicions of and I wanted to get my thoughts on record before the end-of-day frenzy happens. > > **Allwalker** and **Chronos** are both pinging me a bit. **Allwalker** seems to be defending and identifying with **Chronos** a little too much for my tastes. > > And although he has moved on to some different topics of late, **Chronos** is still coming back to the name claim idea too often. While it may have been pro-town to discuss it at length on Day 1 (and only in hindsight is that apparent), now I’d consider it neutral or slightly anti-town to continue to discuss old topics. > > I’m going to get a vote on record here and go with > > [COLOR] **vote Allwalker** [/COLOR] Apart from these [two](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11267232&postcount=685) [posts](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11267228&postcount=684) just now, can you provide examples where **Chronos** and I have been friendly? As in, sufficiently so in order to justify a vote against me. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/712 "2009-06-23T01:01:12Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Why do you want to vote for me? Because you’re either being deliberately obtuse, which is anti-town or you aren’t thinking before you post, which is annoying. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/713 "2009-06-23T02:49:32Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Oredigger(3): Telcontar, Meeko, Pedescribe Imaginary Fiend(1): Chronos Zeriel(1): ScubaBen AllWalker(2): Zeriel, USCDiver Chronos(1): Jimmy Chitwood ShadowFacts(1): Imaginary Fiend\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/714 "2009-06-23T03:19:37Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Because you’re either being deliberately obtuse, which is anti-town or you aren’t thinking before you post, which is annoying. What pede posted was Ambiguous. \*\* Are you telling me that I can no longer openly question ambiguous messages? \*\* Further, It’s obvious that scum not being able to post is a stupid rule. Speaking on fact only [No Offense, Pede, Mahaloth] , every single Mafia game I have played, has had game changing rules put into the game, after the game has started. I would not be surprised if some Mafia game gives, or has given varrying post restrictions to scum. I am not about to begin to entertain hypotheticals here, but I think it is not impossible to pull off. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/715 "2009-06-23T03:21:23Z")
NETA: And if that rule were to be taken back by the Mod once in game, I would not be suprised either. – This is why I mentioned Cirmson and LOST in the middle paragraph. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/716 "2009-06-23T03:32:59Z")
Sorry about the weekend – I was out of pocket entirely. I thought I would get a chance to post but I was not able to after all. I’ve been working on an analysis since Day 1 and have included my vote and rationale below. The following is a mini-WoW of **Chronos** beginning after role PMs were distributed. I hope the format is legible – I realize that WoWs can be a mixed bag, and would appreciate feedback, good and bad. [ul] [li][post=11233684]86[/post]. Lynch-the-lurker discussion. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11233860]91[/post]. **Nanook** moots name claim idea with excellent summary._ This should make the scum very nervous. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11234217]112[/post]. First anti-name-claim post (“bullseye” rhetoric). Pro-scum.[/li][noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11234346]117[/post]. I agree with **Chronos** on the name claim, not really understanding the details, and thinking we are going to be playing Lost, not Mafia._ [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11234840]147[/post]. Claimed no one had edited a post when **Oredigger** had. Soft-smudged the name claim idea once again. Weak pro-scum.[/li]The **Oredigger** issue seems like an honest mistake, the second statement is inline with previous posts. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11235139]150[/post]. **Oredigger** post edit comment. Should we lynch? Weak pro-scum.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11235145]151[/post]. Backs off the **Oredigger** comment (“not starting a bandwagon”). Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11235406]155[/post]. Questioning whether everyone has a name, but in a vaguely pro-scum manner (“remember what happened to **paul** ”). Weak pro-scum.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11235939]161[/post]. Neutral post WRT a previous game. Finishes with noting that mass-claiming is only a valid endgame tactic, and we are not at endgame. Weak pro-scum.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11235960]164[/post]. Opinion on post editing. Well said. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11237100]174[/post]. Opinion on ranking votes. It seems like rational logic to me (and I agreed with it in a later post), but I can’t really say for sure. Weak pro-town.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11237381]183[/post]. General game advice. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11237389]184[/post]. Day One._ [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11237680]192[/post]. Welcome **storyteller**. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11238165]201[/post]. Challenges **storyteller** ’s math in the infamous win condition debate that led to the **pedescribe** vote and subsequent fiasco. Pro-town.[/li]Good information is always pro-towm, but it doesn’t really hurt scum, though. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11239002]207[/post]. Follow-up question regarding the win-con debate. Pro-town.[/li]See above. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11239507]213[/post]. Responds to **pedescribe** ’s vote. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11239904]217[/post]. I post my logic regarding the benefits of name-claiming (I finally get it after re-reading **Nanook** ’s summary). I suggest to Chronos that he run a simulation like he did in the previous game._ [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11240674]222[/post]. **Chronos** responds to my post. Strong pro-scum.[/li]This post really got me thinking. The name-claim benefits at this point are obvious – or should be obvious – to all experienced players (and even to a n00b like me). There are so many pro-town ways in which **Chronos** could have responded, and he had no part of it. To wit: > [@Chronos](#): > > As many great computers once said,Insufficient data for meaningful answer. The problem is that, first, folks false-claiming aren’t going to pick their names randomly; they’re going to pick the names that they think are least likely to be duplicated. Well, yes, they are. But all that does is point out my error in designing the simulation. Why not correct me? We were looking at a scenario that should have made townies lick their chops, and scum very nervous. Don’t nit-pick the details; correct them. Design the simulation with the least likely names to be duplicated. Ask the _Lost_ experts. Make an alternate suggestion. > [@Chronos](#): > > Second, the Scum can coordinate to at least make sure that they’re not duplicating names among themselves, while the Doctor can’t. This does not even make sense. No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed – the Doctor (and everyone else) have the same advantage. In the case of multiple power roles, they can read the claim list just fine and adjust accordingly. (“Oh no! I was going to claim “Fred,” but it’s already been claimed! I guess I’ll have to claim it anyway. Oh well.”) > [@Chronos](#): > > Third, if we do find a name conflict, we won’t be able to tell whether it was the Scum making the false claim or the Doctor: We could end up accidentally lynching the Doctor, or letting a Scum go free. Bingo. Note, however, that this is a good thing. Trading a townie, even a power role, 1-1 for a scum is very pro-town, especially this early on. Couching it as above is very scummy. > [@Chronos](#): > > Finally, there may well be other power roles besides the Doctor which are implied by the names, which would lead to a need for all of them to hide. Again, not a bad thing. Even if there are four power roles _that can be credibly tied to names_, and assuming there are four scum (I don’t know how many there are, but am going off of previous estimates, such as **Nanook** ’s in post 74, and **Chronos** himself in post 164), the random claim order still gives us a 50/50 chance. If we are looking at the Doctor only, it’s 4-1 that the scum are forced into a false claim early in the random claim order. > [@Chronos](#): > > If we ever get to the point, late in the game, where it’s to our advantage to mass-claim roles, then we should of course claim names at the same time. But I don’t think we should do it until then. Again, reinforcing the mantra that this is only and endgame tactic, and we should move on. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11241410]238[/post]. Comment on WoW usefulness in general, and advice to **Meeko**. Neutral.[/li]He also indicated he would stand down on the **pedescribe** vote. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11242778]261[/post]. Challenged **Ichini** on his **storyteller** smudge based on his very detailed _Lost_ posts. Pro-scum.[/li]The very first **Ichini** vote. We all recall how that turned out. Note that while I did not vote for **Ichini** , I was suspicious of him (inasmuch as we were faced with poor choices on Day 1 in any event). But, for the record, there it is. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11242935]266[/post]. Schools **Meeko** a bit. Weak pro-town.[/li]I agree with his assessment of **Jimmy** ’s post, but it is more or less irrelevant since **Ichini** is in his sights for Day 1. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11243319]284[/post]. Defends vote. Neutral.[/li]Has something useful to say about the “third vote is a scum tell” business. Helpful while not hurting scum. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11244068]295[/post]. Piles on **pedescribe** for defending his play by documenting his past anti-town choices. Neutral.[/li]That was funny, actually. I had voted for **pede** at this point. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11245663]342[/post]. Scolds **Meeko** for his cute nicknames. Smudges name-claim again. Pro-scum.[/li]While **Chronos** does confirm his alignment, this is less than useless, as **Mahaloth** has already told us as much (post 124). An interesting point: > [@Chronos](#): > > And I’m still not convinced that mass name-claiming is a good idea, but I suppose there’s no harm in confirming that my character name appears to match my alignment. > > I’m a little leery of using “obscure name” as a grounds for suspicion, though, since Mahaloth might have a different idea of which names are obscure, or might have deliberately thrown in obscure names, either because they’re sufficiently interesting, or specifically to throw off a tactic like this. And remember too that the Scum won’t necessarily be the first to claim: They can just take names that nobody else has taken yet, if they’re towards the end, and thereby improve their odds. Yes, although that also works for the town power roles he painted a “bullseye” on upthread. Continuing the negative pattern in characterizing the risk. [noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11246461]370[/post]. **Mahaloth** issues aliases and kills the name claim advantage for town._ [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11246502]374[/post]. **Chronos** (rightly) reinforces that the advantage is gone. Pro-scum.[/li]This post put me over the top. After all of the anti-claim rhetoric, after the “insufficient data” post where he did not propose a reasonable simulation, he posts the following _10 minutes after its utility is worthless_: > [@Chronos](#): > > Oh, and thank you, Mahaloth. I was contemplating trying to put together a massive Monte Carlo simulation of the results of a mass-claim, but I think you just saved me a lot of work. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11246649]379[/post]. Verifies that the name-claim tactic is useless. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11247392]392[/post]. OK, now he’s just toying with us. Pro-toying-with-us.[/li] > [@Chronos](#): > > In that case, one of you would get lynched, and if that person ended up innocent, then the other one would be lynched, too. This is an excellent illustration of the principle that it’s OK for a townie to die, as long as it produces information: A swap of one Townie for one Scum is a good deal for Town, especially this early in the game. If you’re Town and someone claims the same name as you, you should be happy, because even though that makes it pretty likely that you’ll die, it also helps your team to win. _Now_ it’s a good deal?! Why wasn’t it a good deal four days ago? > [@Chronos](#): > > Meanwhile, Tom Scud, as I read it, your case against Imaginary Fiend is mostly that he opposed the mass-name-claim idea, no? That seems weak to me: Several other players opposed the idea, too (myself included), and I think it unlikely that we’d all be Scum. Well, he’s partly-right :). [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11247395]393[/post]. NETA to previous post to clarify that he is not scum. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11248520]412[/post]. Confirms (useless) alignment claim. Neutral.[/li]Also comments on post count. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11249525]435[/post]. Response to whether or not failing to post an alignment claim was pro-scum. Pro-scum.[/li] > [@Chronos](#): > > As I see it: A mass name-claim would have hurt the Scum, so they didn’t want to do anything that would make the mass name-claim more likely. Well, now that the possibility of a name-claim is safely neutralized, it’s starting to sound like a good idea? [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11250064]448[/post]. General comment on vote manipulation. Weak pro-town.[/li]Good comments. [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11250317]456[/post]. Notes that it would have been immediately obvious to scum that a mass name-claim was dangerous. Pro-scum.[/li] > [@Chronos](#): > > I just have to say that I’m very suspicious of both folks currently voting for Tom Scud. Granted, it wasn’t immediately obvious to Town that a mass name-claim would hurt Scum, but it would have been immediately obvious to Scum. Ironically, **Chronos** was anti-claim until it didn’t matter anymore. [noparse] [/noparse]_[post=11252216]519[/post]. We lynch **Ichini**._ [noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11252276]524[/post]. **Chronos** smudges the vote swingers. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11252696]538[/post]. Accurate comments regarding **IF** ’s claim. Lends weight to **Meeko** ’s pro-alias claim. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11253296]548[/post]. General analysis of scum NK tactics. Neutral.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11258296]571[/post]. Ibid.[/li][noparse] [/noparse] [li][post=11259471]590[/post]. Analysis of NK choices, and initial **IF** suspicion for Day 2. Pro-scum.[/li] > [@Chronos](#): > > OK, so we obviously have two night-killers. I’m guessing that Tom was the Scum night-kill: I think he was one of the least-suspect Townies, so it makes sense for the Scum to target him. Nanook, though, has me puzzled… He was pretty low on the radar yesterDay. He didn’t really contribute much to make him a threat to an anti-Town killer, but he also didn’t seem to do anything particularly suspicious to attract the attention of a pro-Town killer (and certainly didn’t get any votes). Any hypotheses? Yes, I have one. **Nanook** was the scum’s worst nightmare. He alone posted a clear, well-reasoned analysis of why the name-claim was so dangerous to scum, and stuck with it. See posts 91, 115, 325 and 333. Throw in post 347 as a general pro-town comment in case we were reticent to trade a life for a scum’s. [/ul] That takes us to the beginning of Day 2 and the immediate reactions. **Chronos** has since confirmed his vote for **IF** in post [post=11262687]632[/post]. I’ll post additional analysis later as I catch up on the lst day or so (I have only skimmed), but I have all I need for my vote toDay: **Vote Chronos** His pattern of disparaging the name-claim idea and consistently pointing out the risks, ignoring the (substantial) benefits, changing the subject, and glossing over **Nanook** ’s contributions are hugely telling. He is far too good a player for that. The only other scenario I can think of is that he’s the Town Doctor or other power role and is afraid a name-claim would have exposed him. Given the potential scum gold mine, that is about as anti-town as it gets. **USCDiver** , hopefully this will swing your vote. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/717 "2009-06-23T04:35:27Z")
> [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > This does not even make sense. No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed – the Doctor (and everyone else) have the same advantage. In the case of multiple power roles, they can read the claim list just fine and adjust accordingly. (“Oh no! I was going to claim “Fred,” but it’s already been claimed! I guess I’ll have to claim it anyway. Oh well.”) Oh, you better believe this was Snipped. I would like to think that it would go with out saying. I shudder to think about any WOWs I would make, of this length. Anyway. " No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed. " \*\* This thinking could not come from a Townie. \*\* Townies only have one name. Example: John Q. Mafiaplayer is Scum. He was handed the name and role “Scummy McScumalot”. AFTER Mahaloth handed out second names to JUST scum, John Q. is given the name and role “Neutral Nicholas”. At this point, what is stopping John Q. from saying “I am Steven Survivor [Townie]” ? It’s not like the canon names are that much of a secret. What happens to the Town player, who was actually given the name Steven Survivor? But, for scum, this answer would be an immediate “fix” to offer. It’s just a tad \*too \*convenient I will tell you why, with another way to think about it. * * * Some time back, Our family was discussing a newspaper article that covered suggested ATM bank machine security improvements. One such improvement brought forward in the article, was to imput your PIN number backwards, in order to call police. My Stepdad _immediately_ started saying that idea would not work. I thought about it for a second, and with out anything further from him, I figured out why. His PIN is a palindrome. It would be the same number backwards and forwards, so the improvement would not work. [You can obviously deduce that my Pin is NOT palindrome.] * * * Do we have a similar cirSCUMstance here, with cardinal? Will immediate knee jerk reactions appear, because they are a given sub-set of a population? I’m not changing my vote here, because it is just one thing I noticed. Best case senario: In the case of multiple power roles, they can read the claim list just fine and adjust accordingly. Only serves to create confusion and chaos. These are things that Town do not want. Why would Town knowingly give misinformation? Town, playing the game in a pro town manner would NOT read the claim list "“just fine and , _adjust_ , accordingly.” \*\* Can someone help me out here? Is this the tell I think it is? \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/718 "2009-06-23T05:07:28Z")
Wow, my very first Wall of Words. I’m slightly flattered, though obviously I would prefer if it didn’t end with a vote for me. In my defense: First, a lot of the things **cardinal\_fang** lists as being scummy are a result of ignorance, not of scumminess. My vote for **Ichini** , for instance: Yes, obviously we now know in hindsight that **Ichini** was Town, but nobody (except the Scum) knew that on Day 1. I made my best guess as to who was Scum, and I guessed wrong. By the same token, my opposition to name-claiming was also based on ignorance: There were several ways the game could have been set up to make name-claiming useless, and I didn’t know if any of them were the case. After **Mahaloth** changed the rules, we all knew that there hadn’t been after all, but by then it was too late. Second, concerning post [374](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11246502#post11246502): I do intend to set up a computer simulation this game, too, once there’s enough information to feed into it (which will probably be toMorrow or so). Note, by the way, that it was largely luck that my computer work worked as well as it did last game (correctly guessing that no Scum had voted for other Scum), so don’t be surprised if the results aren’t as good this time. That said, figuring out the results of the mass claim is a very different sort of problem than what I did before, and I was having a hard time thinking how to set it up. That day, I had just figured out a way to set it up (I was going to assume that each character’s likelihood of being in the game was proportional to that character’s number of appearances as listed on IMDb), but it would have been a lot of work to do it. When I checked in with the thread, I was going to lay out the methodology I would use in the algorithm, but I found that it had become irrelevant. It’s pure coincidence that I reached that point at the same time as the rules change. Third, concerning post [590](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259471#post11259471): > [@](#): > > 1. Analysis of NK choices, and initial IF suspicion for Day 2. Pro-scum. What’s the basis for calling this pro-scum? My assessment of which kill was which might be incorrect (that remains to be seen), but even if so, what benefit is that to the Scum? And **Imaginary Fiend** might be Town, but that remains to be seen, too. This looks almost like it might be a perfect information slip, as if **cardinal\_fang** knows that my vote against IF is mistaken. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/719 "2009-06-23T05:30:06Z")
**Meeko** , I read your post six times before I could even begin to understand what you were on about. As best as I can tell, You are referring to my notes in response to post 222 by **Chronos**. Please familiarize yourself with the context by reading post 217 (to which **Chronos** is responding), in which I outline why a mass name claim is a good idea (read Nanook’s posts for even better explanations – 91, 115, 325 and 333). The salient point is that when everyone is forced to mass claim in a random order, scum who are forced to go early risk claiming a false (town) name already belonging to a legitimate townie. The Town Doctor would do the same, and run the same risk as the scum in getting caught, but ultimately to the town’s advantage inasmuch as the odds of nailing one town power role vs. 4 (estimated) scum lean towards town. Even trading a Doctor for a scum is a good deal. See **Nanook** ’s post 325 (in which, incidentally, he is offering you advice that you are ignoring once again here). You remember **Nanook** ,right? _A confirmed townie who was all for the name claim_. In that context, those claiming false names are not going to claim a name that someone has already picked. **Of course the vanilla townies are going to claim their own names – that is the whole point**. We catch a scum with a duplicate name in an earlier claim, and at worst we have a 1-for-1 trade-off in that case (i.e., pro-town). > [@Meeko](#): > > [snip] > > " No one will duplicate a name that has already been claimed. " > > \*\* > This thinking could not come from a Townie. \*\* > > Townies only have one name. > > Example: > > John Q. Mafiaplayer is Scum. He was handed the name and role “Scummy McScumalot”. AFTER Mahaloth handed out second names to JUST scum, John Q. is given the name and role “Neutral Nicholas”. > > At this point, what is stopping John Q. from saying “I am Steven Survivor [Townie]” ? Well, nothing is stopping him, if he is an idiot. **Mahaloth** guaranteed him a safe alias ( **Neutral Nicholas** ); why would he false-claim **Steven Survivor** and risk a counter-claim from the real **Steven Survivor**? > [@Meeko](#): > > It’s not like the canon names are that much of a secret. > > What happens to the Town player, who was actually given the name Steven Survivor? He counter-claims, we listen to both sides, and lynch one or the other. If we are wrong and lynch the real townie, we lynch the scum the next night (or vig him). You know, the 1-for-1 trade. You do realize that at this point in the game this is an excellent trade for town, right? > [@Meeko](#): > > But, for scum, this answer would be an immediate “fix” to offer. It’s just a tad \*too \*convenient What does this even mean? > [@Meeko](#): > > I will tell you why, with another way to think about it. > > * * * > > Some time back, Our family was discussing a newspaper article that covered suggested ATM bank machine security improvements. One such improvement brought forward in the article, was to imput your PIN number backwards, in order to call police. > > My Stepdad _immediately_ started saying that idea would not work. > > I thought about it for a second, and with out anything further from him, I figured out why. > > His PIN is a palindrome. It would be the same number backwards and forwards, so the improvement would not work. [You can obviously deduce that my Pin is NOT palindrome.] On this planet where you are discussing ATM PIN security techniques as a metaphor for this particular issue in online Mafia, what colour is the sky? > [@Meeko](#): > > Do we have a similar cirSCUMstance here, with cardinal? Will immediate knee jerk reactions appear, because they are a given sub-set of a population? > > I’m not changing my vote here, because it is just one thing I noticed. > > Best case senario: > > In the case of multiple power roles, they can read the claim list just fine and adjust accordingly. > > Only serves to create confusion and chaos. These are things that Town do not want. Why would Town knowingly give misinformation? Town, playing the game in a pro town manner would NOT read the claim list "“just fine and , _adjust_ , accordingly.” You don’t understand the mass-claim logic, do you? Again, for town power roles _that can be credibly tied to names_, they false-claim in order to avoid being exposed. Jack the Doctor was the case presented by those familiar with _Lost_. > [@Meeko](#): > > \*\* > Can someone help me out here? Is this the tell I think it is? \*\* Yes, **Meeko** , once again, you’ve teased out the killer tell in my post and found me out. :rolleyes: Given your track record at this, I actually feel safer. ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2009, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/720 "2009-06-23T06:02:37Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Wow, my very first Wall of Words. I’m slightly flattered, though obviously I would prefer if it didn’t end with a vote for me. > > In my defense: > First, a lot of the things **cardinal\_fang** lists as being scummy are a result of ignorance, not of scumminess. My vote for **Ichini** , for instance: Yes, obviously we now know in hindsight that **Ichini** was Town, but nobody (except the Scum) knew that on Day 1. I made my best guess as to who was Scum, and I guessed wrong. Yep, this is not a big deal. In my case against you, this is a one-off I am throwing out there, for what it’s worth. I was suspicious of him too, as I mentioned: > [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > The very first **Ichini** vote. We all recall how that turned out. Note that while I did not vote for **Ichini** , I was suspicious of him (inasmuch as we were faced with poor choices on Day 1 in any event). But, for the record, there it is. > [@Chronos](#): > > By the same token, my opposition to name-claiming was also based on ignorance: There were several ways the game could have been set up to make name-claiming useless, and I didn’t know if any of them were the case. After **Mahaloth** changed the rules, we all knew that there hadn’t been after all, but by then it was too late. Nope. Nanook knew it (see above). Tom Scud knew it (133). Heck even after I agreed with you (117), I came around after a little thought, and saw the power of it. It’s not that complicated – I am not buying your ignorance claim. > [@Chronos](#): > > Second, concerning post [374](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11246502#post11246502): I do intend to set up a computer simulation this game, too, once there’s enough information to feed into it (which will probably be toMorrow or so). Note, by the way, that it was largely luck that my computer work worked as well as it did last game (correctly guessing that no Scum had voted for other Scum), so don’t be surprised if the results aren’t as good this time. That said, figuring out the results of the mass claim is a very different sort of problem than what I did before, and I was having a hard time thinking how to set it up. That day, I had just figured out a way to set it up (I was going to assume that each character’s likelihood of being in the game was proportional to that character’s number of appearances as listed on IMDb), but it would have been a lot of work to do it. When I checked in with the thread, I was going to lay out the methodology I would use in the algorithm, but I found that it had become irrelevant. It’s pure coincidence that I reached that point at the same time as the rules change. Yeah, not a big fan of the coincidence. You had every chance to post what you just said in 222, or at any time prior to **Mahaloth** ’s intervention. Posting it now is too convenient, and carries little weight. > [@Chronos](#): > > Third, concerning post [590](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11259471#post11259471): > What’s the basis for calling this pro-scum? My assessment of which kill was which might be incorrect (that remains to be seen), but even if so, what benefit is that to the Scum? And **Imaginary Fiend** might be Town, but that remains to be seen, too. This looks almost like it might be a perfect information slip, as if **cardinal\_fang** knows that my vote against IF is mistaken. Nice try, **Chronos** , but it seems you left out a wee bit of my post re: 590. I’ll help you out here: > [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > > [@Chronos](#): > > > > OK, so we obviously have two night-killers. I’m guessing that Tom was the Scum night-kill: I think he was one of the least-suspect Townies, so it makes sense for the Scum to target him. Nanook, though, has me puzzled… He was pretty low on the radar yesterDay. He didn’t really contribute much to make him a threat to an anti-Town killer, but he also didn’t seem to do anything particularly suspicious to attract the attention of a pro-Town killer (and certainly didn’t get any votes). Any hypotheses? > > Yes, I have one. **Nanook** was the scum’s worst nightmare. He alone posted a clear, well-reasoned analysis of why the name-claim was so dangerous to scum, and stuck with it. See posts 91, 115, 325 and 333. Throw in post 347 as a general pro-town comment in case we were reticent to trade a life for a scum’s. You remember **Nanook** , right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=37)