# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/761 "2009-06-24T00:24:26Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Who exactly is “the scum” in this scenario, and how exactly are they running interference? IF, Oredigger, cardinal, and storyteller. I’d be willing to bet…well, a lot on it. You make a good point, though. Unvote Oredigger Vote Imaginary Fiend ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/762 "2009-06-24T00:30:10Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > I don’t think you have really grasped the concept of WIFOM. You frequently use the term incorrectly. Can you point to the posts where most everyone assumed scum was on your bandwagon? I missed that in my initial read through. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > However, quick observation: > > Five people are voting for Meeko right now. Regardless of Meeko’s alignment, I consider it cold-stone certain that one of the five is Scum. if he’s Town - and on the basis of his claim I think he very probably is - Meeko is a wonderful trap for Scum, because he draws a lot of attention and probably appears to be an “easy lynch” for the opportunistic. It is nearly certain that at least one, and possibly more than one, of the Others failed to resist being opportunistic in this way. > [@Telcontar](#): > > **Storyteller** ’s suggestion that we keep an eye on **meeko** voters may be helpful in the Days ahead, but it isn’t statistically relevant yet. Snipped, to provide the answers as requested. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/763 "2009-06-24T00:32:07Z")
Re: [279](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11243281&postcount=279) But what if the third vote is for Opal? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/764 "2009-06-24T00:36:33Z")
Then we lynch her. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/765 "2009-06-24T00:45:50Z")
OK, I am re-reading and trying to get a bead on who to vote for, and am having a really hard time (as I have been all Day). I’m going to throw out some not-votes based on my read so far (i.e. those who I will not be voting for based on evidence to date), as well as review where I’m at. This is probably more helpful to me to organize my thoughts than for any of you, so bear with me. [ul] [li] **Cardinal Fang’s** case against \*\*Chronos \*\*is long and well-documented (just the kind of case I like - thanks for laying it all out like that, **Cardinal** ), but is it substantial? I need to really sit down with that one and look through it. [/li][li]I vaguely recall not being convinced by **telcontar’s** case on **Oredigger** , but need to review that as well.[/li][li] **Zeriel’s** case against \*\*AllWalker \*\*seems quite thin to me. Could be cuddling, could be just a mistake, and there’s absolutely no way to know for sure. Not enough for me to vote.[/li][li]I’ve already stated at length why I think voting for \*\*Fiend \*\*based only on how other people voted is a bad idea. Very little, if anything, has been added to that case, so not enough for me to vote either.[/li][li]I missed why \*\*ScubaBen \*\*voted for **Zeriel**. I will need to review that.[/li][li] **Meeko’s** case against **Cardinal Fang** is incoherent rambling, as best as I can make out. I definitely will not be voting for \*\*Fang \*\*based on that. [/li][li] **Fiend’s** vote for me is obviously wrong :p. I won’t be voting for myself.[/li][/ul] It’s possible I’ll find some stuff against someone who doesn’t already have any votes while re-reading, and I’ll build a case if I have the time, but I’m not sanguine about that. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/766 "2009-06-24T01:05:36Z")
OK, so I went back to look at \*\*Scuba Ben’s \*\*case against **Zeriel** , and it is thiiiiiin. Practically non-existent, so I looked into it a bit more. Here’s the relevant portion of his [vote post:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11265791&postcount=658) [QUOTE=Scuba Ben] In #401, Zeriel says that Ichini and Telcontar seem to be better prospects for Scum than the at-that-time vote leaders Meeko and pedescribe, “simply because they’ve done something tangible.” Doing nothing tangible is anti-Town, but not automatically pro-Scum, as there can be a number of good and bad reasons for doing nothing tangible. So for what it’s worth, Zeriel is my current best-guess. (And I openly admit that my best guesses historically turn out to be plain Town.) [/QUOTE] But I looked back and that [post 401](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11248121&postcount=401), and it actually has more reasons than just “because they’ve done something more tangible.” [QUOTE=Zeriel] I think they’re both town–Meeko would have to have Idle Thoughts-level audacity to be a scum playing the way he is, and Pedescribe hasn’t really done anything terribly noteworthy since I FOSed him at the beginning of the day. The whole situation feels very blue-on-blue to me. [/QUOTE] and [QUOTE=Zeriel] I spent some time looking over Ichini Sanshigo and Telcontar, because they both relatively prominently flip-flopped on the helpfulness/scumminess of another player (story and pede respectively). [/QUOTE] Now, we know \*\*Zeriel \*\*was wrong about \*\*Ichini \*\*(as was I and everyone else who voted for him), but he did in fact state a case for the vote and also explain why he didn’t like either of the two leading candidates at the time. \*\*Scuba Ben \*\*clipped all that and made \*\*Zeriel’s \*\*case look much weaker than the admittedly weak case it already was, and then voted him for it. That looks really suspicious to me. I’m surprised \*\*Zeriel \*\*didn’t comment on this himself (or maybe he did and I missed it). So, for now while I continue to read, I will **Vote Scuba Ben** for misrepresenting another player’s case, then voting for him. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/767 "2009-06-24T01:20:18Z")
OK, I’ve now looked back on the case against **Oredigger** , which as far as I can tell is contained in [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11263628&postcount=637). The relevant portion is: [QUOTE=Telcontar] Among the late votes that killed Ich and saved IF was Oredigger’s. He originally voted meeko, unvoted when meeko started looking more innocent and, ultimately, case a late vote for Ich. He justified the final vote with a fairly general statement that the case against Ich was the best. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/...&postcount=471](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/...&postcount=471) the last minute vote switching killed one townie. currently it is a significant contributing factor to the case against IF. In a sense, the vote switching helped the mafia regardless of whether IF was innocent; it either saved a scum yesterday or will help condemn a townie today. Oredigger was one of several involved but, unlike the others he: A.) Voted for meeko. Meeko looked like a safe and easy lynch for most of yesterday. Mafia love safe and easy lynches. B.) Didn’t get involved in the drama. yes, drama is anti town, but you’d think mafia would be a bit more concerned about making enemies than story and jimmy seemed to be. oredigger was much closer to the prototypical flying under the radar approach. [/QUOTE] As with the first time I read it, I remain unconvinced, because it is mostly predicated on the late vote-swing theory, which only holds water if \*\*Fiend \*\*is scum, etc. etc. There are a few other factors there which make it a bit more compelling than that, but not enough for me to vote **Oredigger**. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/768 "2009-06-24T01:23:22Z")
OK, sorry for the many posts in a row, but I had to squeeze in as much as I could when I could. I have to stop now, but will try to review **Fang’s** large post re: \*\*Chronos \*\*before the deadline tomorrow. At least now I finally have a vote on record, even if it is a one-off at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/769 "2009-06-24T01:31:25Z")
> [@pedescribe](#): > > IF, Oredigger, cardinal, and storyteller. I’d be willing to bet…well, a lot on it. So you’re willing to bet - _bet_ - that you have identified four Scum - possibly _all_ the Scum - on Day Two, on the basis of one sequence? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/770 "2009-06-24T01:36:29Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Oh boy. **Time for some WIFOM.** > > Ichini(6): Chronos, Zeriel, AllWalker, Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Storyteller > Imaginary Fiend(5): Tom Scud, Telcontar, Nanook, Pedescribe, CardinalFang > Meeko(5) : Pedescribe, BillMC [USCD], AllWalker, Tom Scud, Oredigger, > Chronos(4): Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, Storyteller, USCDiver Seriously? This is awesome, and we should do this all the time. It’s a really interesting way to look at the vote record, and it tells us all sorts of things, and I can’t figure out why no one has ever done it before. As I noted at the time, I believe that it is certain that there was at least one Scum on the Meeko wagon. We know it wasn’t Tom Scud, so that leaves us four. Of the four, **Oredigger** was the only one to also contribute to the lynch of **Ichini** over **IF.** Fuck, I hate this game until there’s a Scum identified. Once there’s one, the patterns always look a little clearer. Still slogging through vote analysis. I will try to finish it tomorrow. For the moment, though, I am withdrawing my vote on **Chronos.** The beginnings of this analysis suggest that there may be better places to put my vote, but I need to follow the posts to see if there are. **unvote Chronos** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/771 "2009-06-24T02:03:36Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Seriously? This is awesome, and we should do this all the time. It’s a really interesting way to look at the vote record, and it tells us all sorts of things, and I can’t figure out why no one has ever done it before. > > Fuck, I hate this game until there’s a Scum identified. Once there’s one, the patterns always look a little clearer. 1. Is this sarcasm, or do you like what I am doing? 2. Based on the numbers alone, we will probably mislynch again, right? When do we turn it around, on a numbers basis? When do we turn it around with numbers, and better play than what we have? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/772 "2009-06-24T02:04:26Z")
All this last-day vote muddying around Chronos has me, frankly, suspicious. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/773 "2009-06-24T02:05:26Z")
NETA: Chronos, Ore, and IF. Right now I’m seeing it as VERY close, with the leader with three votes? The only thing saving this from scum manipulation is that they can’t be too obvious. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/774 "2009-06-24T02:23:45Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > So you’re willing to bet - _bet_ - that you have identified four Scum - possibly _all_ the Scum - on Day Two, on the basis of one sequence? Yes. Yes I would. Of course, you’d be skeptical, I’m not surprised. But I had you and Digger pegged before today, for the record. ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/775 "2009-06-24T02:28:18Z")
Sorry about the low posting count and no voting. I should be able to turn that around. **Vote Oredigger** First of all, there’s the stuff in [Telcontar’s post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11263628&postcount=637), which make sense to me. The lack of drama comment in particular makes sense, particularly reflecting on toDay. I know I know, RL beckoned, but that covers the first half of the Day. There have been 3 posts from him since then, all fairly neutral. The case against **Chronos** is crap, so this is also partly a defensive vote in his favour. I honestly believe Chronos is far more likely to be Town than Scum, and I don’t care if that comes to bite me. Not only that, but he is a good player - I want to keep him around for as long as possible. I don’t think I’m being particularly articulate here, but I hope I’m getting my point across effectively. Exams make you stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/776 "2009-06-24T02:44:09Z")
See, this is what I’m talking about. If another townie dies today, just keep in mind we went from 4-2-1-1-1-1-1 at 5:45 EST to 3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1, less than a day before the Day ends. If you guys are so un-serious as to be swayed so easily, why are you voting in the first place? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/777 "2009-06-24T02:45:16Z")
Also, BIG FOS for \*\*ShadowFacts \*\*for tossing out YET ANOTHER one-off this late in the Day. Way to hide in plain sight, chum. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/778 "2009-06-24T02:47:54Z")
Unvote IF Vote Oredigger ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/779 "2009-06-24T02:56:37Z")
\*\*Day ends at 11:30 AM Eastern Wednesday. Vote Count Chronos(3): Jimmy Chitwood, CardinalFang, USCDiver Oredigger(3): Telcontar, AllWalker, Pedescribe Imaginary Fiend(1): Chronos AllWalker(1): Zeriel Zeriel(1): ScubaBen ShadowFacts(1): Imaginary Fiend CardinalFang(1): Meeko\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/780 "2009-06-24T03:05:26Z")
Jesus Christmas Christ. Would anyone like to perhaps fuck with the town by breaking a tie? _I_ don’t know how to play this game. I don’t know what everyone else’s excuse is. What the hell’s going on around here? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=40)