# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/861 "2009-06-24T15:36:09Z")
Sonofabitch sonofawhoreferkeeristsake. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/862 "2009-06-24T15:37:07Z")
Well, so there that is. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/863 "2009-06-24T15:37:16Z")
\*\*Confirming that I can’t quote Telcontar. \*\* Telcontar : Sorry for getting your name in there. :eek: It was another guy with a T. :smack::smack: I hope you aren’t smudged or offended by me. [I have a lot of people against me here, I don’t need to make another one.] ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/864 "2009-06-24T15:38:51Z")
Well crap. Alright, time to throw out all my old assumptions, and start fresh. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/865 "2009-06-24T15:40:13Z")
Given that quotes are off : Pede Said : ## Alright, time to throw out all my old assumptions, and start fresh. Im curious as to what they were. Even if wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/866 "2009-06-24T15:43:54Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > **Can we get a player list after the Dusk?** \*\*Alive: Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Friend Meeko BillMC replaced by USCDiver Pedescribe Paulwhoisaghost replaced by Scubaben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood Guy Incognitto, replaced by Storyteller Cardinalfang Dead: Ichini(Sun, Ordinary Survivor) Tom Scud(Hurley, Ordinary Survivor) Nanook(Kate, Ordinary Survivor) Oredigger(Sayid, Ordinary Survivor)\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/867 "2009-06-24T15:53:49Z")
OK, I obviously have mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I’m glad that I survived, but on the other, I’m disappointed that we lost another Town. And on the gripping hand, it would have been kind of convenient for me to have died now, since I’ll be more busy starting next week (not enough so that I’ll need a sub, but I’ll be participating less). I also find it interesting that Sayid turned out to be Vanilla. From what I know of the show, I would have kind of expected him to have been a power role, either something vigilante-ish or something detective-ish. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/868 "2009-06-24T15:57:26Z")
Ok. The Price is Right is over with now. Perhaps now I can be more coherent. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/869 "2009-06-24T16:01:34Z")
Well, that sucks, and I can’t say I’m super surprised, but at least he was a ordinary survivor. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/870 "2009-06-24T16:04:37Z")
Sorry, guys. I think my silence got me killed, wish I could have mounted a better defense. Go Town! ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/871 "2009-06-24T16:33:45Z")
Damn. I was hoping we were onto something there. I guess not. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > **AllWalker’s** vote for Meeko (#306), the third (!), is also undermotivated, I think, particularly in light of the fact that AllWaker goes to pains to note that pedescribe is “suspicious,” (pedescribe is the vote leader at this point), but votes for Meeko because Meeko “misrepresented” BillMC. The problem being that what he calls misrepresentation looks like simple misunderstanding to me. And while reasonable people could differ on this point, the simple fact that it is not a blatantly obvious misrepresentation means that if pedescribe was suspicious enough to warrant a “suspicious as pedescribe is” mention, voting for Meeko there in place of pedescribe looks… let’s say worrisome. More so if pedescribe is Scum, though, because if ped is Scum than AllWaker’s vote for Meeko looks like an effort to gain cred for suspecting ped while quietly protecting ped from a potential lynch. Total crap. “Undermotivated?” In **Meeko** ’s post, he did two things: 1. He ignored the link in which BillMC provided his reasons for voting. 2. He cut this link from the quote. This link was in the middle of the text, and was the only thing removed. One of these or the other could be just an honest mistake. Both of these together? It stank of Scumminess. In my eyes, this was a solid piece of data as I could not see how this could emerge by Townie design or honest mistake. Which was a lot better than the vaguely suspicious behaviour of **pedescribe**. My vote was based on logic. Not on some Scum stretch. Not on bad blood as Meeko seems to think - the last game was the last game; everything reset at the beginning of this. I was by no means protecting pede - the case against him, even at that stage, was weak. Besides, everyone who didn’t vote for him could be considered “protecting” him. > [@Meeko](#): > > 1.If we can have gut feelings in this game, then I still feel off with Jimmy Chitwood. > 2.BillMC sided with me on Chitwood, but then voted for me. I still do not get this. > 3.Despite that being the real reason why I voted for BillMC, Allwalker voted me. > 4.I think Allwalker and I are keeping it to a low roar, but we were out for blood in the aptly named Crimson Glyph game. Again, If I could learn debate from Allwalker, I think it would improve my debating, a lot. > 5.Suffice to say, I think Allwalkers vote was more personal grudge, than not. > 6.Given that Allwalker voted for me, I am not also kinda “”“gut feeling”“” him as scum, as well. > 7.Telcontar and I have little to no history. I will give him benefit of the doubt here, in this game. I really like his style, and he makes a lot of sense in his play. > 8.Digger and I go way back. I’m not sure what to make of a guy who agrees to bury the hatchet from one Haggle game, just to bury it in my head, simply because I beat him in a simulpost for points. (A LOT of points, and a 2x point modifier, but we wont go there.) – I am just saying, Digger and I have a negative history. If this is Grudge worthy, I don’t know, If it is there, I would call it less of a grudge that Allwalker. 1. Well, we can’t have gut feelings in this. I know some other people have, but intuition needs logic to back it up. 2. That’s because you didn’t read his post denouncing your WoW on pede 3. Sure did. 4. I don’t have a grudge against you. I never did. 5. It wasn’t. I like tot hink I am above that, at least. 6. So, try and prove it. But if everyone had gut feelings based on that, this game would get bogged down in vague superstition. 7. I agree. He is a clever player. 8. I can’t speak for the newly departed, but don’t always assume anyone out to get you is doing it for personal reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/872 "2009-06-24T17:23:31Z")
> [@AllWalker](#): > > 1. So, try and prove it. But if everyone had gut feelings based on that, this game would get bogged down in vague superstition. Snipped. Allwalker, I put “”" “gut feeling” “”" in a quite a few quotes. This was getting at the fact that I am was than pleased with Pede’s vote. I am not going to lie, you and I could have handled Crimson, and yes, the brief tiff we have had so far in LOST. Not the best first impression, and you truly never get a second chance to make a first impression. It is all moot now, because we have night to get through, and well, I can’t speak for you, but I know I am town, so, I am in the fetal position in behind the trees over there. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/873 "2009-06-24T17:34:15Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > This was getting at the fact that I am was than pleased with Pede’s vote. **I was less than pleased with Pede’s vote.** ---
**Author:** ![AllWalker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/db5fbb/32.png) [@AllWalker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AllWalker)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/874 "2009-06-24T17:34:17Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Snipped. > > Allwalker, I put “”" “gut feeling” “”" in a quite a few quotes. This was getting at the fact that I am was than pleased with Pede’s vote. I am not going to lie, you and I could have handled Crimson, and yes, the brief tiff we have had so far in LOST. Not the best first impression, and you truly never get a second chance to make a first impression. > > It is all moot now, because we have night to get through, and well, I can’t speak for you, but I know I am town, so, I am in the fetal position in behind the trees over there. Classic noob mistake - disappearing into the trees is the most dangerous thing you can do. The camera follows you at first but loses sight of you… pan to other people’s worried faces… the tension builds… there is a scream, and Meeko’s body is flung towards the shore. My advice - stay where the cameras can see you. If you are still and the music changes, run. If you are running and the music changes, stop. Oh, and be good looking and popular enough so that the writers can’t write you off. That last one is critical. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/875 "2009-06-24T17:38:59Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I put “”" “gut feeling” “”" in a quite a few quotes. Can you explain the difference between one, two or three sets of quotation marks in your posts? I’m having a hard time interpretting what that means. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/876 "2009-06-24T17:53:24Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Can you explain the difference between one, two or three sets of quotation marks in your posts? I’m having a hard time interpretting what that means. You are probably over thinking it. They are to emphasize the quote-ness. The fact that I am not saying it, and also the fact that I think it is odd to begin with. Most recently, I had " “”" gut “”" " to refer back to the quoted quotefest. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/877 "2009-06-24T17:56:09Z")
> [@AllWalker](#): > > My advice - stay where the cameras can see you. If you are still and the music changes, run. If you are running and the music changes, stop. Oh, and be good looking and popular enough so that the writers can’t write you off. That last one is critical. Well, I have no hope for the good looks. As to the stay in view of camera, you want me to keep on talking? I have hit my :smack: quota for the month, I fear. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/878 "2009-06-24T18:02:44Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > You are probably over thinking it. That is a safe bet. - I see no reason to change my perspective on things at the moment. We’ve now had two late-Day switcheroos, both ending in town players getting lynched. I think **Chronos** is scum and I think it looks a hell of a lot like **pedescribe** was determined to look scummier no matter how brazen he had to be. **Telcontar** and **storyteller** don’t look too great at the moment either. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/879 "2009-06-24T18:18:04Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > That is a safe bet. > > - > > I see no reason to change my perspective on things at the moment. We’ve now had two late-Day switcheroos, both ending in town players getting lynched. I think **Chronos** is scum and I think it looks a hell of a lot like **pedescribe** was determined to look scummier no matter how brazen he had to be. > > **Telcontar** and **storyteller** don’t look too great at the moment either. Hey, I made the best case I could, honestly presented the arguments, and admitted it wasn’t ironclad. We’re going to get a lot of lynches wrong under the best of circumstances. I was also the first vote, not like i was piling on to a winning horse (recall that 3 people had voted for **IF** before I voted for someone else). **Story** is another story 😛 From our two town lynches: Oredigger(5): Telcontar, AllWalker, Pedescribe, ScubaBen, Storyteller Ichini(6): Chronos, Zeriel, AllWalker, Oredigger, ShadowFacts, Storyteller Not to put too fine a point on it, but the case rather suggests itself. Still, there’d be no reason for him to switch last minute unless at least one of **chronos** and **IF** was mafia, which might more be a reason to go back and lynch one of them than **story**. Allwalker was the third vote each time (since it was clear that pedescribe would switch back to oredigger if asked), but I don’t see any reason to read too deeply into that yet. In pedescribe’s (limited) defense: he did clearly state that he was suspicious of both IF and Oredigger and was happy to hang whichever attracted more attention. It’s a bit more scatter shot than I tend to be, but it’s not necessarily anti town (despite appearances). ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/880 "2009-06-24T18:34:09Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > **Story** is another story 😛 Feh. I know it’s an easy conclusion to draw and all, but it’s false. Anyway, moving on: Name claim: revisited. Thirteen players remain, of which either three, four, or five are Scum. If two pro-Town players die toNight as last Night, we will be down to either 6-5 (definitively lynch-or-lose), 7-4 (potentially lynch-or-lose, depending on the source of the extra Night kill and his/her actions the following Night), or 8-3 (definitely not lynch-or-lose). If only one pro-Town player (and no one else) dies toNight, we will be down to either 7-5 (probably lynch-or-lose), 8-4 (not lynch-or-lose, but getting there), or 9-3 (not bad at all). If one pro-Town player and one Scum die to Night, we will be down to either 7-4 (not lynch or lose, but getting there), 8-3 (not terrible), or 9-2 (in excellent shape). THE UPSHOT: If there were three Scum to start, we’re probably OK no matter what happens toNight. If there were five, we will be at lynch-or-lose unless someone kills Scum toNight. If there were four (the most likely option IMO), things will be getting dicey if no Scum die toNight, and doubly so if there is a double Town kill. Conclusion: if we’re not at a place where a name claim is definitively the right move, we are _very_ close to that place. Depending on toNight’s results, we may also be nearing a place where Masons, if there are any, should claim and confirm. We need to maximize our chances of hitting Scum very soon, both to stave off defeat and to generate usable data to guide future lynches. * * * Sayid’s death and Town status is the fourth confirmed Townie to have the name of a major survivor of Oceanic Flight 815 (following Kate, Hurley, and Sun). I tentatively believe that Meeko is likely to be Town, and his claim – Sawyer – is also that of a major character. This is not perfect data, but it is data. At this moment, 13 players are alive, and either eight, nine, or ten of them are Town. The following is a list of what I will term “major characters” who were also Flight 815 survivors (I’m perhaps arbitrarily defining a major character as one who was the focus of at least one flashback episode during the show’s first two seasons), and who have NOT been revealed or claimed to date. 1. Jack Shepard 2. John Locke 3. Jin Kwon 4. Charlie Pace 5. Claire Littleton 6. Michael Dawson 7. Shannon Rutherford 8. Boone Carlyle 9. Ana-Lucia Cortes 10. “Mister Eko” 11. Bernard Nadler 12. Rose Henderson Nadler 13. Waaaaaaaaaalt (Walt) Of these 12, I am perhaps stretching a bit with Bernard and Rose qualifying as “major characters." Nikki Fernandez and Paulo the Boy Toy got a flashback in Season 3, but calling them “major characters” would be a tremendously large stretch. So forget about a name claim per se, for the moment, although I increasingly think one will be of value. Is everyone who has not currently claimed willing to indicate, very simply, whether they appear on the list above? I am willing, and yes, I appear on that list. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=45)