# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 45
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/881 "2009-06-24T18:42:47Z")
I’m willing, and I’m on the list. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/882 "2009-06-24T18:49:09Z")
I appear on the list. Story, I asked you for such a list quite awhile ago, suggesting that if the list was over a certain length a name claim would be fairly useless. At the moment we have 13 living players…and you listed (easily) 13 identities. Given that, what virtue is there in a name claim? the harm, basically sealing the fate of 1-2 players who’d be obvious power roles, is fairly noticeable, but the benefit escapes me. I’m also unwilling to involve myself in an argument over whether Mahaloth is more likely to have put, say, Rose or Michael in the game. I don’t know the show and have no desire to learn it. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/883 "2009-06-24T18:51:45Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I appear on the list. > > Story, I asked you for such a list quite awhile ago, suggesting that if the list was over a certain length a name claim would be fairly useless. At the moment we have 13 living players…and you listed (easily) 13 identities. Given that, what virtue is there in a name claim? the harm, basically sealing the fate of 1-2 players who’d be obvious power roles, is fairly noticeable, but the benefit escapes me. > > I’m also unwilling to involve myself in an argument over whether Mahaloth is more likely to have put, say, Rose or Michael in the game. I don’t know the show and have no desire to learn it. Well… it depends, doesn’t it, on how people answer the question I’ve asked. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/884 "2009-06-24T18:56:27Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Well… it depends, doesn’t it, on how people answer the question I’ve asked. That’s the point, it doesn’t depend. Assuming mahaloth picked his covers carefully then every living player has a name that is either on that list or just as important. If some town have names off the list then even the lost addicts will have no information. The only benefit of a name claim would be to the scum who’d get to say “Hi, doctor.” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/885 "2009-06-24T19:06:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Is everyone who has not currently claimed willing to indicate, very simply, whether they appear on the list above? Before I answer that question, I want to hear from some other folks knowledgeable about _Lost_ about **storyteller** ’s choice of “major characters”. **storyteller** is fairly high on my list of suspicion, and if he’s Scum, he would have made sure to have included the Scum aliases (or at least, some of them: He could be looking to sacrifice a couple to save the rest) on his list. After I get home from the office, I’ll adapt over my sausage-grinder program (I stuff everything I can think of into the hopper at the top, turn the crank, and something comes out the bottom) for this game. As before, I’ll include results both with and without the assumption that I’m Town. I expect that the two sets of results will look very different, since I can’t deny that my survival just now looks suspicious (and is, moreover, the sort of thing my program would recognize as suspicious). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/886 "2009-06-24T19:09:17Z")
> [@](#): > > That’s the point, it doesn’t depend. Assuming mahaloth picked his covers carefully then every living player has a name that is either on that list or just as important. Except that **Mahaloth** probably didn’t pick his covers carefully enough, given that he did it midstream. I think the assumption is that he picked the original real Town names from the most important characters, and then when it came time to give the Scum aliases, had to pick ones that weren’t as common. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/887 "2009-06-24T19:13:31Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > That’s the point, it doesn’t depend. Assuming mahaloth picked his covers carefully then every living player has a name that is either on that list or just as important. That is obviously not correct, right from the start. **Imaginary Fiend** has claimed Nikki, who does not appear on the list of 13. Look, if it needs to be made explicit: I want every living player to commit simply to being on the list or _not_ being on the list. Leave aside the issue of the name claim altogether; what I want is to limit the Scum’s options. If the Scum have names that are not on this list, do they want to claim that they _are_ on the list to avoid suspicion? Do they want to admit that their character is a minor one? Because once they claim they are on the list, if they are not, then they are limiting their own false claim options in the event - whether by mass claim or by normal game events - that they are forced to claim. They can’t use their own alias, because they’ve already said they’re not on the list. So they’ll have to pick a name that’s on the list, claim it, and hope they’re not duplicating. We can worry about the name claim once we have the data that this simple survey provides. And this survey, frankly, doesn’t tell the Scum much of anything that they don’t already know. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/888 "2009-06-24T19:27:50Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > That is obviously not correct, right from the start. > > **Imaginary Fiend** has claimed Nikki, who does not appear on the list of 13. > > Look, if it needs to be made explicit: > > I want every living player to commit simply to being on the list or _not_ being on the list. Leave aside the issue of the name claim altogether; what I want is to limit the Scum’s options. If the Scum have names that are not on this list, do they want to claim that they _are_ on the list to avoid suspicion? Do they want to admit that their character is a minor one? > > Because once they claim they are on the list, if they are not, then they are limiting their own false claim options in the event - whether by mass claim or by normal game events - that they are forced to claim. They can’t use their own alias, because they’ve already said they’re not on the list. So they’ll have to pick a name that’s on the list, claim it, and hope they’re not duplicating. > > We can worry about the name claim once we have the data that this simple survey provides. And this survey, frankly, doesn’t tell the Scum much of anything that they don’t already know. I don’t see any harm in the survey (I participated after all), I just think a resultant name claim would be dangerous regardless of what the survey shows. This is metagame wankery and will distract us from real scum hunting. Chronos: Even though I think that this new name claim push is more reason to be suspicious of story, I see little harm in his survey. Someone correct me if i’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/889 "2009-06-24T19:30:50Z")
But if their alias isn’t on that list, would they say it was? And if **storyteller** is Scum, as I mentioned, then we’d expect the Scum aliases to be on the list in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/890 "2009-06-24T19:33:48Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Before I answer that question, I want to hear from some other folks knowledgeable about _Lost_ about **storyteller** ’s choice of “major characters”. **storyteller** is fairly high on my list of suspicion, and if he’s Scum, he would have made sure to have included the Scum aliases (or at least, some of them: He could be looking to sacrifice a couple to save the rest) on his list. > > After I get home from the office, I’ll adapt over my sausage-grinder program (I stuff everything I can think of into the hopper at the top, turn the crank, and something comes out the bottom) for this game. As before, I’ll include results both with and without the assumption that I’m Town. I expect that the two sets of results will look very different, since I can’t deny that my survival just now looks suspicious (and is, moreover, the sort of thing my program would recognize as suspicious). I want to see the source code for this program, my man, before I trust its analysis. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/891 "2009-06-24T19:38:00Z")
I’m on the list. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/892 "2009-06-24T19:41:19Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But if their alias isn’t on that list, would they say it was? Well, that’s the question, isn’t it? It’s fun and exciting to force the Scum to make decisions when they can’t exactly know what their best option is. Usually that’s what they do to us. At some point, people, you have to play aggressively. You can’t spend the entire game cringing and cowering and thinking “oh, but what if?” You have to force the Scum to make tough choices, to _do things_, to increase the chances that they’ll slip somewhere along the line. > [@](#): > > And if **storyteller** is Scum, as I mentioned, then we’d expect the Scum aliases to be on the list in the first place. I realize that a lot of people are basically building their entire worldview of this game around the assumption that I am Scum. Fine. Do what you have to. But at some point in the probably-not-too-distant future, you will find that you are wrong and I am not. All I ask is that folks not get so locked into an assumption that I know will eventually be proven incorrect that they throw the metaphorical baby out with the bathwater. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/893 "2009-06-24T19:44:24Z")
> [@](#): > > I want to see the source code for this program, my man, before I trust its analysis. Frankly, I was a bit disappointed last game when nobody did ask for it. Got a c compiler? ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/894 "2009-06-24T19:51:55Z")
> [@AllWalker](#): > > Classic noob mistake - disappearing into the trees is the most dangerous thing you can do. The camera follows you at first but loses sight of you… pan to other people’s worried faces… the tension builds… there is a scream, and Meeko’s body is flung towards the shore. > > My advice - stay where the cameras can see you. If you are still and the music changes, run. If you are running and the music changes, stop. Oh, and be good looking and popular enough so that the writers can’t write you off. That last one is critical. You forgot the most important rule–no vehicular sex! ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/895 "2009-06-24T19:59:29Z")
Shouldn’t we wait till Dawn to do this? [List of 13] Just saying. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/896 "2009-06-24T20:07:06Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Frankly, I was a bit disappointed last game when nobody did ask for it. Got a c compiler? Yeah, what libraries are you expecting? (I’m a sysadmin for a scientific software company in real life) ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/897 "2009-06-24T20:22:34Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Shouldn’t we wait till Dawn to do this? [List of 13] > > Just saying. This is pointless and will take forever. we should get it out of the way. The only information the survey itself gives scum is, potentially, information about which players have minor character names. These players are more likely to be vanilla. Having said that, 1.) it doesn’t really matter that much 2.) it’s a weak tell at best 3.) story left off at least one name that I both expected to be in the game and expected to see as a power role (well, based on my reading of the wiki and my love of furry pets), so not being on his list isn’t even confirmation of vanilla. hint: woof. > [@Chronos](#): > > Frankly, I was a bit disappointed last game when nobody did ask for it. Got a c compiler? I might have but i was dead :-P. Remember to check his inputs too! ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/898 "2009-06-24T20:33:20Z")
Telcontar : You ish teh furreh? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/899 "2009-06-24T20:39:55Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > But at some point in the probably-not-too-distant future, you will find that you are wrong and I am not. All I ask is that folks not get so locked into an assumption that I know will eventually be proven incorrect that they throw the metaphorical baby out with the bathwater. Storyteller I strongly believe you are town. Hopefully I am not mistaken here. I might be a tad confused, but not enough to shake my opinion of you. You are not including me in the above quote, are you? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2009, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/900 "2009-06-24T21:13:45Z")
> [@](#): > > Yeah, what libraries are you expecting? (I’m a sysadmin for a scientific software company in real life) Uh, I think I might be using stdio, but nothing fancy. > [@](#): > > Remember to check his inputs too! It’s at a sufficiently primitive level of development that inputs are still added by editing the source code, so the source code is pretty much everything. Speaking of said code, ought I to count all votes, or just the ones that were in place at the end of the day? The former gives more data, but the latter gives higher-quality data. Or maybe use both, but weight the final ones higher? If so, how much higher? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=44) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=46)