# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 47
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/921 "2009-06-25T14:31:21Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > And without impeaching the perfection of LostPedia, I stand by my assertion that Rose and Bernard are much more “major” characters than Nikki and Paulo, who were one-shot characters and haven’t appeared on the show at all in more than two years. I agree with you, and I think anyone who has followed Lost would, but I thought posting the list from LostPedia would be helpful, as it is a neutral source. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > How are you planning to determine that? I’m going to think about it for a bit. It’s nighttime, so I don’t feel a big rush, and I’d like to let it percolate in my head. Just because you think it’s a good idea with no downside, doesn’t mean it is. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/922 "2009-06-25T15:41:14Z")
Quoth **Telcontar** : > [@](#): > > oh, Chronos, can you rerun the program looking at all votes, not just end of day votes? I can, but it’ll take a bit more time (entering in all of the votes is the most time-consuming part of the program). Expect this some time this evening. Should I weight them less than the Day-end votes? Quoth **storyteller** : > [@](#): > > These are a way in which we could misuse the information “We”? **AllWalker** was talking about how the Scum could use that information. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/923 "2009-06-25T15:50:44Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > These are not ways in which the information could help the Scum. These are a way in which we could _misuse_ the information, and a way in which the information isn’t perfect, respectively. > [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **storyteller** :“We”? **AllWalker** was talking about how the Scum could use that information. **I’m not sure If I like this. \*\* \*\* Storyteller** : Explanation on how you meant the word “misuse” please. **Chronos** : Explanation on why you (apparently) are trying to smudge Storyteller, please? The way I read it, the first part (that you left off) seems to address Scum. The second half seems to imply Town only. I won’t elaborate, as this will bias the answer storyteller has to give. FTR: I Actually see **Allwalker’s** point here. Believe it or not. I think it is information that is a bit further down from the surface, but I think it is a valid point to still not claim. Scum win when they control the vote, correct?\*\* On night 2, they could probably care less what town they NK, as long as they get an NK.\*\* As far as I know, scum always get to NK, So glad I can’t vote right now. This is confusing me. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/924 "2009-06-25T16:26:01Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **storyteller** :“We”? **AllWalker** was talking about how the Scum could use that information. You’re kidding, right? You seriously think **storyteller** slipped and was talking about how his team of scum could misuse the information? That is an unbelievable reach. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/925 "2009-06-25T16:46:38Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **storyteller** :“We”? **AllWalker** was talking about how the Scum could use that information. False. AllWaker said this: > [@](#): > > Players whose names are not on this list could be leapt on as Scum, and the Scum could use this as a datapoint to be used against innocent Townies. The Scum are not capable of “leaping on” anyone without substantial help from the lot of us. If the information from my survey were to be used to railroad someone with a minor character name, on the basis of that information alone, that would be us, as a Town, misusing the information. The Scum may certainly aid and abet us in this misuse, but it would be our own responsibility. The fact that the bad guys can encourage us to use a tool poorly does not mean it’s a bad tool or an inherently harmful one. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/926 "2009-06-25T16:46:51Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > You’re kidding, right? You seriously think **storyteller** slipped and was talking about how his team of scum could misuse the information? That is an unbelievable reach. :dubious: Shadow, so you agree with my take on it? I think it is fair to ask both parties what they are attempting to do here. Story and Chronos both. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/927 "2009-06-25T16:51:39Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Shadow, so you agree with my take on it? > > I think it is fair to ask both parties what they are attempting to do here. Story and Chronos both. And now, just Chronos. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/928 "2009-06-25T17:04:18Z")
What is the likelihood that Mahaloth did NOT use all of the names on “Main” characters? A step from this, if he did NOT, could then be in a place to offer the remaining names to the scum, when he gave them second aliases? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/929 "2009-06-25T19:34:36Z")
OK, yeah, that was a little too hair-trigger of me there. Still, on **storyteller** ’s idea, my main concern is how much of a clear divide is there between main characters and not-so-main characters, and where that divide is. If there were precisely 13 good-aligned characters who appeared in every show and everyone else was either evil or in one episode each, then a name claim would make sense, even with Scum aliases, because **Mahaloth** would have given the 13 good, common names to the real Townies and have been forced to pick minor characters for the Scum aliases. If, on the other hand, the 5th- or 10th-biggest character were only slightly more represented than the 20th-biggest character, then we’d have to second-guess which characters **Mahaloth** specifically considered must-haves for the game. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/930 "2009-06-25T21:00:06Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > I’m going to think about it for a bit. It’s nighttime, so I don’t feel a big rush, and I’d like to let it percolate in my head. Just because you think it’s a good idea with no downside, doesn’t mean it is. OK, I’ve thought about it, and since Mahaloth has stated that he’s already given the aliases to scum, then I cannot see any upside for scum in revealing whether I am on the list. They’re going to use the names provided by Mahaloth no matter what. However, I realize that I have added a complication by posting a slightly different list than **storyteller**. If someone says that they are on one or the other, it could give some info about which role they might _not_ be. So to be complete and avoid any “which list are you talking about” problems, we should combine the lists, which results in: 1. Jack 2. Locke 3. Jin 4. Charlie 5. Claire 6. Michael 7. Walt 8. Shannon 9. Boone 10. Ana Lucia 11. Eko 12. Libby 13. Paulo 14. Bernard 15. Rose I confirm that my name is on that list. I don’t think this really helps, but I’m now convinced that it can’t hurt, so there it is. On the topic of **Chronos’** number-crunch, I don’t cotton to numerical analyses of mafia games. I don’t like it when **Pleonast** does it, or **Blaster Master** , or whomever. As far as I’m concerned, this game cannot be condensed into numerical values, and these things always involve assumptions that can be wrong/manipulated. (And I say that as someone who came out pretty darn good on **Chronos’** analysis, so I’m not trying to poo-poo something that implicates me). ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/931 "2009-06-25T21:46:06Z")
Every time I poo poo something that implicates me, I try to pin it on the dog. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/932 "2009-06-25T21:48:18Z")
> [@](#): > > (And I say that as someone who came out pretty darn good on Chronos’ analysis, so I’m not trying to poo-poo something that implicates me). Whereas I, who posted the darned thing, look pretty darn bad in it. Ultimately, though, any method of finding scum must necessarily involve assumptions that can be wrong or manipulated: I just don’t think there’s any way around that. All my computer program does is provide a method for dealing with whatever assumptions are made systematically. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/933 "2009-06-25T22:28:34Z")
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**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2009, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/934 "2009-06-25T22:54:23Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Scuba Been now jumped in here. > > Since he didnt Identify that he was also last minute voting… what do we make of it ? Here’s some suggestions. I encourage you to challenge the easiest-to-disprove first: [ol] [li]I had a few spare minutes on the job, checked the thread, and saw that there was a tie and a request to break the tie.[/li][li]I am playing Mafia with my usual panache – and putting both feet in my mouth with every post.[/li][li]I’m impersonating Scum.[/li][/ol] Which would you like to test first? > [@Mahaloth](#): > > You have lynched Oredigger77, who was Sayid Jarrah, an ordinary Survivor. Don’t that just suck. Once again, I have chosen – poorly. If you’ll excuse me, I’ll be getting sunscreen, mirrored shades, and several cold drinks. I expect to need them when I’m in the spotlight, if I survive to Dawn. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/935 "2009-06-26T00:21:41Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Sayid’s death and Town status is the fourth confirmed Townie to have the name of a major survivor of Oceanic Flight 815 (following Kate, Hurley, and Sun). I tentatively believe that Meeko is likely to be Town, and his claim – Sawyer – is also that of a major character. > > This is not perfect data, but it is data. At this moment, 13 players are alive, and either eight, nine, or ten of them are Town. The following is a list of what I will term “major characters” who were also Flight 815 survivors (I’m perhaps arbitrarily defining a major character as one who was the focus of at least one flashback episode during the show’s first two seasons), and who have NOT been revealed or claimed to date. > > 1. Jack Shepard > 2. John Locke > 3. Jin Kwon > 4. Charlie Pace > 5. Claire Littleton > 6. Michael Dawson > 7. Shannon Rutherford > 8. Boone Carlyle > 9. Ana-Lucia Cortes > 10. “Mister Eko” > 11. Bernard Nadler > 12. Rose Henderson Nadler > 13. Waaaaaaaaaalt (Walt) > > Of these 12, I am perhaps stretching a bit with Bernard and Rose qualifying as “major characters." Nikki Fernandez and Paulo the Boy Toy got a flashback in Season 3, but calling them “major characters” would be a tremendously large stretch. > > So forget about a name claim per se, for the moment, although I increasingly think one will be of value. > > Is everyone who has not currently claimed willing to indicate, very simply, whether they appear on the list above? > > I am willing, and yes, I appear on that list. How does this help the Town? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/936 "2009-06-26T00:41:54Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > How does this help the Town? I’m not sure if I have said this yet, or not. I think I might have touched on it. Others share my view, I am fairly sure. Can we stop with the entire Name Claim? I mean, I honestly believe that Scum are feeding this into the game, **REPEATEDLY** just to keep us off track when it comes to actually playing Mafia. **We are playing MAFIA, NOT the LOST highlight reel of season 1 and 2.** * * * Thankfully, we have only lost ordinary / vanilla townies. We need to start playing the game before that changes. Scum get at least one NK everynight, right? It is only a matter of time before they get lucky. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/937 "2009-06-26T00:50:50Z")
Further on characters: We have 13 people left alive, of whom nine are presumed to be genuine Town, and four are Scum who have been given Town names. **storyteller** and **ShadowFacts** have both posted lists of main characters, but that doesn’t address just how main those characters are. I just did some digging on IMDb, and looked up the potential Town names, and their number of appearances, which I will be using as a proxy for how major that character is. I realize that this isn’t foolproof (some high-number folks might just be in the background of a lot of episodes), but it’s at least objective, and it’s the best I (a non-watcher) can do: 99: Jack Shephard 99: James “Sawyer” Ford (claimed by Meeko) 99: Jin Kwon (presumably in the game if Sun was) 77: Claire Littleton 70: Charlie Pace 60: Michael Dawson 56: Desmond Hume (unclear alignment) 37: Vincent the Dog 34: Shannon Rutherford 32: Walt Lloyd 30: Miles Straum (freighter person) 29: Daniel Faraday (freighter person) 28: Mr. Eko (tail section) 28: Boone Carlyle 25: Ana-Lucia Cortez (tail section) 21: Libby (tail section) 19: Rose Henderson 18: Charlotte Lewis (freighter) 18: Bernard Nadler (tail section) 17: Danielle Rousseau (unknown) 17: Christian Shephard (not mentioned in **storyteller** ’s character summary; I have no idea) 14: Nikki Fernandez (claimed by **Imaginary Fiend** ) 14: Paulo 14: Frank Lapidus (freighter) Assuming **Imaginary Fiend** is telling the truth, we’ve got characters in this game who have as few as 14 appearances. Even just counting the people on the plane, and removing all of the questionables (people of unclear alignment and the dog), we’ve got 17 names left for 13 live people, meaning that there’s enough names for everyone to have a name that’s at least as major as the one IF claimed. If we include freighter folk and those in **storyteller** ’s “none of the above” category (plus the dog), then we’ve got 24 possible names. And the 9th-biggest clearly Town name has only 28 appearances, meaning that Town must have either some debatable names or relatively minor characters. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/938 "2009-06-26T00:55:49Z")
How did we arrive at 4 scum already? Did I miss that memo? Did I also miss the memo, that no one uses memos anymore? ---
**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/939 "2009-06-26T01:07:24Z")
> [@cardinal\_fang](#): > > **pedescribe** , may I ask what your case against me is? I did not get it on my post review. > > > [@pedescribe](#): > > > > [snip] > > > > I don’t have one, yet. I just have a really really strong gut feeling. I can make one, if you like. Well, don’t do so on my account. I mean, it would have to be one really good case to convince me to vote for myself. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/940 "2009-06-26T01:18:13Z")
Quoth **storyteller** : > [@](#): > > How are you planning to determine that? > > Ugh. I think I need a sabbatical. I’m getting way too frustrated by playing this game lately. So many players are so determined to avoid doing anything that might, conceivably, in some context and in some way, help the Scum, that we’re collectively unwilling to do anything at all. There’s this crushing anxiety; we’ve become so determined to consider every possibility that it paralyzes everything. **storyteller** , I note that you’re one of the ones who didn’t claim that your name matched your alignment (at least, not until it was too late to matter). Would you care to explain why not, in light of what you’ve said here? Was this a case of being “so determined to avoid doing anything that might help the Scum that you were unwilling to do anything at all”, or was there some other reason? Is it more or less reasonable for someone to decline to say whether they’re on your list than it is for someone to decline to say that their name and alignment match? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=46) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=48)