# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 48

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/941 "2009-06-26T01:20:54Z")

</div>

Oh, and **Meeko** , four Scum is just a guess, based on game balance: Usual practice is to make the number of Scum either 1/4 the number of players, or the square root of the number of players. The only thing we actually know for certain is that there are more than zero and less than seven Scum.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/942 "2009-06-26T01:23:09Z")

</div>

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> and less than seven Scum.

Noob Hat time: Because, at that point, Scum would control the vote, correct? As they do not, the game continues, and is not already over. Yes?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/943 "2009-06-26T01:37:58Z")

</div>

> [@storyteller0910](#):
>
> [snip]
> 
> And without impeaching the perfection of LostPedia, I stand by my assertion that Rose and Bernard are much more “major” characters than Nikki and Paulo, who were one-shot characters and haven’t appeared on the show at all in more than two years.

FTR, I have no comment on the list strategy at this point – I need to review the conversation a little deeper to understand it better (just catching up now).

With reference to the above, however, remember this [post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11234390&postcount=120) from **Mahaloth**. If he is using names from all seasons, their recent appearance may not have any bearing on the matter.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![cardinal\_fang](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal_fang/32/15316_2.png) [@cardinal\_fang](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cardinal_fang)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/944 "2009-06-26T01:45:43Z")

</div>

> [@Telcontar](#):
>
> [snip]
> 
> It’s probably not best to speculate (publicly) about what power roles may or may not be in the game. the last thing you want is to tip the hand of a pro town power role. We know (ish) that there is a vigilante, but if there’s a pro town redirector they really need to keep their head down in day time for awhile longer.
> 
> [snip]

OK, point taken. FTR, my example is based on a pro-scum redirector, which is where that power role is usually found if I’m reading the wikis correctly.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/945 "2009-06-26T05:46:41Z")

</div>

Quoth **Telcontar** :

> [@](#):
>
> oh, Chronos, can you rerun the program looking at all votes, not just end of day votes?

OK, I’ve finished that. With all other assumptions the same as before:

Without assuming my innocence:  
Total number of possibilities: 302  
[Telcontar] 156  
AllWalker 220  
Chronos 256  
Imaginary Fiend 202  
Meeko 0  
USCDiver 94  
pedescribe 92  
Scuba Ben 188  
Zeriel 124  
ShadowFacts 64  
Jimmy Chitwood 52  
storyteller 184  
cardinal\_fang 52

With assuming my innocence:  
Total number of possibilities: 46  
[Telcontar] 18  
AllWalker 38  
Chronos 0  
Imaginary Fiend 46  
Meeko 0  
USCDiver 30  
pedescribe 18  
Scuba Ben 34  
Zeriel 16  
ShadowFacts 4  
Jimmy Chitwood 4  
storyteller 40  
cardinal\_fang 4

The revised code: [spoiler]

```auto

[noparse]#include <stdio.h>
#define max_scum 4	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define max_bus 0	/* Maximum expected number of busses */

main()
{
  int players[13];	/* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  char names[13][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses;
  int i;
  int score[13];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  for(i=0;i<13;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players[0] = 0; players[0] < 2; players[0]++)
  for(players[1] = 0; players[1] < 2; players[1]++)
  for(players[2] = 0; players[2] < 2; players[2]++)
  for(players[3] = 0; players[3] < 2; players[3]++)
  for(players[4] = 0; players[4] < 2; players[4]++)
  for(players[5] = 0; players[5] < 2; players[5]++)
  for(players[6] = 0; players[6] < 2; players[6]++)	/* List all the possibilities */
  for(players[7] = 0; players[7] < 2; players[7]++)
  for(players[8] = 0; players[8] < 2; players[8]++)
  for(players[9] = 0; players[9] < 2; players[9]++)
  for(players[10] = 0; players[10] < 2; players[10]++)
  for(players[11] = 0; players[11] < 2; players[11]++)
  for(players[12] = 0; players[12] < 2; players[12]++)
  for(players[13] = 0; players[13] < 2; players[13]++) {
    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    for(i=0;i<8;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }

/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++;	/* Telcontar voted for Fiend */
    if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++;	/* Fiend voted for ShadowFacts */
    if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++;	/* Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver */
    if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++;	/* Meeko voted for cardinal_fang */
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	/* USCDiver voted for Chronos */
    if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++;	/* pede voted for Fiend */
    if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++;	/* Zeriel voted for AllWalker */
    if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++;	/* ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben */
    if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++;	/* Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede */
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	/* Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos */
    if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++;	/* cardinal_fang voted for Fiend */
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	/* cardinal_fang voted for Chronos */

/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
    if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++;	/* Telcontar voted for pede */
    if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++;	/* AllWalker voted for Meeko */
    if(players[2] && players[3]) buses++;	/* Chronos voted for Fiend */
    if(players[4] && players[6]) buses++;	/* Meeko voted for pede */
    if(players[4] && players[10]) buses++;	/* Meeko voted for Jimmy */
    if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++;	/* Meeko voted for Fiend */
    if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++;	/* USCDiver voted for AllWalker */
    if(players[6] && players[2]) buses++;	/* pede voted for Chronos */
    if(players[7] && players[9]) buses++;	/* Scuba voted for Shadowfacts */
    if(players[7] && players[8]) buses++;	/* Scuba voted for Zeriel */
    if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++;	/* Shadow voted for Telcontar */
    if(players[10] && players[3]) buses++;	/* Jimmy voted for Fiend */
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++;	/* storyteller voted for Chronos */
    if(players[12] && players[6]) buses++;	/* cardinal_fang voted for pede */
/* Count number of un-buses-- Voting to save a fellow Scum */
    if(players[0] && players[2]) buses--;	/* Telcontar saved Chronos */
    if(players[1] && players[3]) buses--;	/* AllWalker saved Fiend */
    if(players[1] && players[2]) buses--;	/* AllWalker saved Chronos */
    if(players[2] && players[3]) buses--;	/* Chronos saved Fiend */
    if(players[6] && players[2]) buses--;	/* pede saved Chronos */
    if(players[7] && players[2]) buses--;	/* Scuba_Ben saved Chronos */
    if(players[8] && players[3]) buses--;	/* Zeriel saved Fiend */
    if(players[9] && players[3]) buses--;	/* ShadowFacts saved Fiend */
    if(players[11] && players[3]) buses--;	/* storyteller saved Fiend */
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses--;	/* storyteller saved Chronos */
    if((min_scum<=n_scum)&&(n_scum<=max_scum)&&(buses<=max_bus)) /* Throw out all scenarios with the wrong number of Scum, or too many buses */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(players[2] == 0) /* Assume Chronos Town */
    if(players[4] == 0) /* Assume Meeko Town */
			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<13;i++) {
        if(players* == 0) printf("%s",names*);
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<13;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}[/noparse]

```

[/spoiler]

Two things to note here:  
First, my hunch is that this is not as reliable as the previous results, since Scum may have placed votes on other Scum for part of the day with the intention of changing them later. So I’m hesitant to attach any significance to votes that were not in place at the end of the day.

Second, the run with myself assumed Town shows **Imaginary Fiend** as Scum in 46 out of 46 cases. While I do suspect that this is correct, it should not be taken as a true certainty, since it depends on assumptions on the extent to which Scum have actively manipulated the vote. If I relax those assumptions a bit (changing the max\_bus variable to, say, 2), I find **IF** as Scum in 246 out of 306 cases.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/946 "2009-06-26T13:12:14Z")

</div>

Hey guys. I’m not going to be in till later. [Not here at ““daybreak””.]

Will check back in when I can. If I can.

If not: I’m still not sure about Pede and Chit. [Omgus/FOS/Whatever]

Would include Allwalker in the list, but thats more personal, than game related.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/947 "2009-06-26T14:18:44Z")

</div>

> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Would include Allwalker in the list, but thats more personal, than game related.

If it’s not game-related, why even bother mentioning it? Keep stupid grudges out of the game, please. :mad:

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/948 "2009-06-26T15:30:25Z")

</div>

Clarifying my thoughts from yesterday concerning name-claiming:

The worst outcome from a Scum point of view in a name-claim would be having to claim the possibly minor character that **Mahaloth** gave them as an alias. **Imaginary Fiend** already claimed (what looks to me to be) a fairly minor character, and not only did it not garner him any votes, it actually convinced one person to switch off of him. So it looks to me like we just won’t be able to catch any Scum at all with a mass name-claim.

We might, however, be able to confirm a few Townies. I think it almost certain that the characters who have been in every episode (Jack Shephard, James “Sawyer” Ford, and Jin Kwan) are real Townies, and it’s probably pretty likely that Claire, Charlie, and Michael are, too, but after that, there seems to be a pretty broad divide, so I wouldn’t be confident about any name below that point. So name-claiming might be able to confirm between two and five more Townies.

This is not, however, an argument for _mass_-claiming. The advantage to being a confirmed Townie is that you won’t get lynched, but the sooner Townies are confirmed, the sooner Scum can start picking them off. I think the proper course of action would be to just ignore name-claiming for now, and if one of those two (or five) people looks likely to be lynched, then that person (and that person alone) should claim.

And with that, I have nothing more to say but to sit back and wait for the Dawn, and hope that the Scum kill me.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/949 "2009-06-26T16:02:09Z")

</div>

It’s these end of day suspenses that really get to me.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/950 "2009-06-26T16:03:05Z")

</div>

\*\*The Survivors were able to sleep, but not too deeply. Nearly everyone worried about which one of them would die during the Night….or if it would again be more than one of them.

It was actually rather quiet for the most part. There were no gunshots, not scuffles, and no screams. If the Others were attacking or killing anyone, they were silent and slick. No one awoke in terror.

When the morning came, the Survivors gradually awoke, and they naturally began to look around to see who was missing. Whispers arose, but no one cried out.

It was weird and unexpected, to say the least.

No one died during the Night.

It is now Day Three. Day Three ends at Noon Eastern on Wednesday, July 1. \*\*

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/951 "2009-06-26T16:07:30Z")

</div>

Woohoo! At the very least, our vig is A) voluntary and B) paying attention to us. AND we either have a sharp doctor or a roleblocker who now knows who at least one scum is (assuming scum have to pick one, no redirector, offer void where prohibited, etc).

Good signs, folks.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/952 "2009-06-26T16:22:50Z")

</div>

Wow, that’s even better than me dying! Good job, whoever made that happen!

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/953 "2009-06-26T17:08:07Z")

</div>

Oooh, complicated!

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/954 "2009-06-26T17:22:46Z")

</div>

Oh, hey, **Zeriel** , did you look over my program then?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/955 "2009-06-26T17:34:30Z")

</div>

> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Oh, hey, **Zeriel** , did you look over my program then?

I did. It doesn’t appear to be doing anything sneaky, so the only thing we can discuss is your logic.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/956 "2009-06-26T18:47:17Z")

</div>

All right, good deal! Love it when nobody dies. 🙂

Can we learn anything from a no kill? Possibilities:  
Scum kill was blocked  
Scum target was protected  
Scum decided not to kill  
plus  
Vig was blocked  
Vig target was protected  
Vig decided not to kill

We already had a hint of a role-blocker from storyteller. We already guessed that there is a Doctor. I can’t think of any reason scum would want to no-kill. So…I guess we didn’t learn anything, now that I type it all out. Pretty much the same for the Vig, except that I would guess that the Vig decided not to kill, making it probable that the Vig is not compulsory, which is a good thing.

But really that is all speculation, and we don’t know pretty much anything more than we knew at the end of Day yesterday.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/957 "2009-06-26T18:59:27Z")

</div>

> [@](#):
>
> I can’t think of any reason scum would want to no-kill.

Conceivably, they might all be MIA, in which case we could look for a set of four or so people who weren’t active at all over the Night. That seems pretty improbable to me, though, given that we don’t seem to have any real lurkers this game, and a scan of the first few names to come to mind shows that they all had some activity last Night. The only scenario I see where this gives us any new information at all is if the no-kill came from a successful role-block of a designated killer, in which case the role-blocker now knows who one Scum is, but of course it’s up to that player to decide when to share that information. I think the proper course of action here is to just count our blessings and move on.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/958 "2009-06-26T20:41:43Z")

</div>

> [@Mahaloth](#):
>
> \*\*
> 
> No one died during the Night.
> 
> \*\*

😕:eek:

Wow. Here I was, comming in here, thinking the worst.

But, is this the best?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/959 "2009-06-26T20:47:56Z")

</div>

> [@ShadowFacts](#):
>
> If it’s not game-related, why even bother mentioning it? Keep stupid grudges out of the game, please. :mad:

Shadowfacts, don’t you see this as just the opposite? If anything, it will be even harder for me to bring a case against Allwalker, not easier. I mean, if I have a case here, it will have to be a pretty good one.

Again, I knew I would be not posting my normal levels today. I had the time earlier today to say something before the end of the night. I didn’t want to waste it.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2009, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/960 "2009-06-26T21:12:06Z")

</div>

> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Shadowfacts, don’t you see this as just the opposite? If anything, it will be even harder for me to bring a case against Allwalker, not easier. I mean, if I have a case here, it will have to be a pretty good one.

This is absolutely the last thing I am going to say on this topic, and it is simply a repeat of what I said before: Please keep your personal grudges out of the game. Nobody cares who you butted heads with in previous games. Play THIS game.

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