# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 60

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**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1181 "2009-07-03T14:16:00Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> You take this time to FOS someone. You know, like I did.

I’m hoping that the deaths (or lack thereof) will teach us something.

Oh well, work now. back in a few hours

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1182 "2009-07-03T14:20:41Z")

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> [@Telcontar](#):
>
> I’m hoping that the deaths (or lack thereof) will teach us something.
> 
> Oh well, work now. back in a few hours

Heh. I was just about to come back and ask you where your faith was. 😃

I mean, There should be no reason why we can’t have no NK tonight, right?

Otherwise we will learn something.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1183 "2009-07-03T15:24:11Z")

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It feels strange. Knowing that there is a vote going on (Well, a vote that took place since the last one here.) that we don’t have to perch and more or less ebay snipe.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1184 "2009-07-03T15:27:33Z")

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Not that, that keeps the ADD inclined of us away from the game. Cause it doesn’t.  
\*\*  
You think we should look at all the people who change last minute? Is that where the scum are playing in this game? \*\*

Would seem to be real easy strategy. Just sit and move the vote towards a townie. Don’t do much of anything else.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1185 "2009-07-03T15:57:28Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Would seem to be real easy strategy. Just sit and move the vote towards a townie. Don’t do much of anything else.

An even easier strategy is for the Town to just suspect other Townies in the first place, thus freeing up the Scum to play however they want. Nice work, if you can get it.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1186 "2009-07-03T16:02:11Z")

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…

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1187 "2009-07-03T16:06:42Z")

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\*\*While depressed about killing another of their own, the Survivors on the island were finally able to get to sleep. They were, in an odd way, confident. No one died last Night, so perhaps things were going…well, better, if not great.

After they awoke, the Survivors went through the now regular procedure of trying to figure out if they were all there.

It didn’t take long to notice that one of them was, indeed, missing.

The Survivors went into the forest, and were disappointed to find AllWalker, hanging from a tree, clearly dead. But who was he really?

AllWalker, who was Miles Straume, a Survivor Medium\* is dead.

It is now Day Four. Day Four ends at Noon Eastern on Wednesday, July 8th.

\*This game’s version of a Lie Detector(which is all his power was). “Medium” was only for the color.  
\*\*

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1188 "2009-07-03T16:06:49Z")

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Does Mahaloth still have Net issues?

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1189 "2009-07-03T16:07:56Z")

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I guess not.

Damn.

Lie Detector?

I haven’t come across that role yet…

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1190 "2009-07-03T16:09:28Z")

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**Vote Scuba**

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1191 "2009-07-03T16:09:39Z")

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Oh good. We managed not to lose another vanilla town.  
What a fine experience this has been.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1192 "2009-07-03T16:10:29Z")

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And the third issue to take care of

Mahaloth: Any time extension consideration for the 4th?

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1193 "2009-07-03T16:14:16Z")

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OK, so we know our lie detector said the following just before biting it:

> [@](#):
>
> Out of the vote leaders: Chronos, story and Scuba, the former two are far more likely to be Town.

Which means I’m an asshole, to begin with. We’ll have to see what else he left for us on further reread, but that was a comment that struck me (and possibly the scum, too, it seems), as a fairly confident statement of knowledge. Which, like I said, if it was, fuck me sideways because I’ve contributed nothing.

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**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1194 "2009-07-03T16:20:23Z")

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> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#):
>
> OK, so we know our lie detector said the following just before biting it:
> 
> Which means I’m an asshole, to begin with. We’ll have to see what else he left for us on further reread, but that was a comment that struck me (and possibly the scum, too, it seems), as a fairly confident statement of knowledge. Which, like I said, if it was, fuck me sideways because I’ve contributed nothing.

If I read the Lie Detector wiki page correctly, Allwalker could have just submitted any alignment declaration and effectively made himself a second cop. Still, it’s hard to know what’s a real breadcrumb. I tend to have good feelings about Chronos, however, so I’m not too concerned there. We should probably not read that comment as a condemnation of scuba, though, as Allwalker wasn’t eager to lynch him.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1195 "2009-07-03T16:21:40Z")

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> [@AllWalker](#):
>
> Just in case I haven’t made by opinions clear, I agree.

You can back track here. Allwalker comments on Chronos being Town.  
Oh, and Scuba? Yeah, given what Allwalker said, and that we shared votes on you?

Yeah. I’m not changing my vote.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1196 "2009-07-03T16:23:40Z")

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> [@Mahaloth](#):
>
> \*\*Vote Count:
> 
> Chronos(4): Jimmy Chitwood, USCDiver, Zeriel, CardinalFang,
> 
> ScubaBen(3): ShadowFacts, Meeko, AllWalker
> 
> Storyteller(1): Chronos
> 
> Imaginary Fiend(2): Storyteller, ScubaBen
> 
> Pedescribe(1): Telcontar\*\*

AGAIN I FOS Scuba.

If Allwalker said that ““The former two are more likely to be town”” and after that, EVEN VOTED for Scuba…

Telcontar, help me out here… .you just quoted Allwalker listing the three people, with Scuba being last, Right?

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1197 "2009-07-03T16:24:43Z")

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NETA: Wow., Actually that Was Chitwood.

Jimmy, what post numnber is that, that has Allwalker stating that the former 2 are more likely to be town than Scuba?

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1198 "2009-07-03T16:25:52Z")

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> [@Telcontar](#):
>
> If I read the Lie Detector wiki page correctly, Allwalker could have just submitted any alignment declaration and effectively made himself a second cop. Still, it’s hard to know what’s a real breadcrumb. I tend to have good feelings about Chronos, however, so I’m not too concerned there. We should probably not read that comment as a condemnation of scuba, though, as Allwalker wasn’t eager to lynch him.

**AllWalker** would have known when he composed the post that he needed to be careful about apparent breadcrumbs that weren’t. I think the “are far more likely” without even giving a reason is a pretty good indicator.

I also read that as **AW** having no information about **Scuba**.

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1199 "2009-07-03T16:30:38Z")

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[1043](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11296740&postcount=1043)

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [July 3, 2009, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1200 "2009-07-03T16:49:12Z")

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Just so we’re on the same page, [here’s the Mafia Scum page for the Lie Detector role](http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lie_Detector):

> [@](#):
>
> A Lie Detector is a potentially powerful power role. Each night the Lie Detector sends the Moderator a post made by another player during the previous day, and the Moderator tells the Lie Detector, to the best of his ability, whether that other player was telling the truth when they made that post. The power can be used, for example, to find out whether a role claim is true or not.
> 
> In one form of the role, the Lie Detector’s ability is lost if he tells the other players, or they work out, what his ability is.

We’ll obviously want to take a closer look at all of **AllWalker** ’s posts, but for now I’m tentatively assuming that the breadcrumb was the bit about trusting me and **storyteller**. Adding the assumption that **storyteller** and I (and, of course, **AllWalker** ) are innocent to my program, I get the following:

Total number of possibilities: 54  
Telcontar 24  
AllWalker 0  
Chronos 0  
Imaginary Fiend 0  
Meeko 0  
USCDiver 32  
pedescribe 22  
Scuba Ben 29  
Zeriel 26  
ShadowFacts 27  
Jimmy Chitwood 24  
storyteller 0  
cardinal\_fang 32  
Meanwhile, does it strike anyone else that the power roles in this game are pretty significant? Assuming that **storyteller** is telling the truth, we’ve got at least two Detective-type roles, someone who can negate a Detective somehow, a killing role, and someone who can negate a killing somehow. That seems to me like a lot, for a game where the moderator said the power roles wouldn’t play a big part.

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