# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1281 "2009-07-06T17:50:54Z")
On Meeko: Eh, I don’t trust vanilla claims, even name claims, under the best of circumstances (which admittedly, this was pretty close to that). The Vig claim, if un-counterclaimed, is not only far more unimpeachable (well, unless he’s actually a PFK SK or a scum strongman with one extra nightkill or something equally ludicrous and unsupported by the kill pattern) but it will hopefully will give our (potential but likely, given the kill-free night the other Day) doc or blocker something to work with when playing chicken with the scum. As for **AllWalker** , well, I just realized I’d missed almost a page of discussion yesterday in which most of what I just spent an hour researching was already researched by other people. At this point I’m comfortable with a “confirmed” pool of you, **story** , and **Meeko**. I was going to rant about how AllWalker leaving me off his “there’s a scum in this group” list (and subsequently ignoring my snark based on that) was potentially a clear crumb on me, except that I couldn’t find anywhere that I unambiguously said I was town on Day One (just a few times when I referenced Super Mario Mafia as “My only non-town role”), and I can’t imagine AllWalker would waste a detection on something like that when there were so many clear statements of pro-town-hood to test. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1282 "2009-07-06T19:24:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **ShadowFacts** :OK, then, why do _you_ think that **AllWalker** trusted me so much? I think there are two possible reasons why **AllWalker** thought you were Town: 1. He used his Lie Detect power on you and got a result that you were telling the truth (presumably about your “I am Town” statement). or 2. He had a read on you and thought you were playing like a Townie. It could have been either of those, and until we know for sure which it is, you are not “confirmed” in my mind. It’s too subjective. If you think #2 is unlikely, if you want I can pull up all the times I (and others) have said that we had a Town read on **Meeko** this whole game (just to use one example). Look, if you asked me straight up, I would guess that based on all the evidence that you quoted upthread, #1 is more likely. I might even go so far as to say that you are “probably” Town. But you are _not_ confirmed, and I think it is a big mistake to treat you as such. And no matter how much you repeat that you are confirmed, I won’t. If you think that makes me suspicious, so be it. I think it makes me a cautious player who won’t be manipulated by a player’s statements about himself. * * * I am inclined to believe **Meeko’s** Vig claim, even if that does mean he fibbed earlier about being an ordinary survivor. The Vig roles makes sense with the Sawyer character, and I think it was probably pro-Town to remain hidden early. Vig can be very powerful for us in the later game. I’m not quite sure why he decided to claim right now, but that’s his choice. The question is: do we try to direct a kill or let him decide for himself if and on whom to use it? I incline toward letting power roles do their own thing, but we should probably at least discuss it in the event someone has a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1283 "2009-07-06T19:39:11Z")
You gotta admit, **Shadow** , the pattern of \*\*AllWalker’s \*\*“far more likely to be town” statements (just \*\*Chronos \*\*on Day 1, \*\*Chronos \*\*and \*\*Storyteller \*\*on Day 2) is pretty suggestive. The phrasing is different/obvious enough that it’s a potential crumb in retrospect. In fact, one wonders if that’s why scum tagged him. They certainly tagged the Oracle etc with less to go on in Sekham. Given our stunning lack of scum-hunting success so far, I’d say we should at least TRY to start creating a confirmed (realistically, until \*\*story \*\*has some success, semi-confirmed) pool and one of the ways to do that is by examining \*\*AllWalker \*\*for crumbs. If nothing else, it gives \*\*Meeko \*\*some guidance on who to shoot at and when it might be wise to start–since I’m on record as letting power roles do their own thing as much as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1284 "2009-07-06T19:58:12Z")
> [@](#): > > I am inclined to believe Meeko’s Vig claim, even if that does mean he fibbed earlier about being an ordinary survivor. Actually, he never claimed to be ordinary, so there’s not even a fib there. He just sort of let everyone assume that. And I agree that it’s his call on when and how to use his bullets. I just wanted to make sure he’d considered the possibility of a bloodbath night, if it was possible. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1285 "2009-07-06T20:05:36Z")
Wow, it’s been quiet today. I was hoping for a major uptick in activity with the end of the weekend, but it seems that life has other plans. Just to put myself on record: I’m willing to accept \*\*Chronos \*\*as innocent, **story** as cop, and \*\*meeko \*\*as vigilante. On one level I’m beginning to wonder a bit about **Shadow** for arguing against this, but that’s almost too obvious a play for the mafia; I think that’s townie being confused and ornery. My top suspicions are **pedescribe** (my current vote choice) and **scuba ben**. Meeko, what are your thoughts going forward? One possibility: Almost regardless of the number of mafia, an extra vigilante kill will cost us a lynch possibility given an odd number of players (given 5 mafia we are at LYLO now, 4 mafia tomorrow, 3 mafia the next day). However, if we modkill pedescribe for inactivity and you shoot tonight then we can remove two players from the unconfirmed pool. Does that make sense? I’m going to say\*\* mod kill pedescribe\*\* in part because I think he’s mafia and him dropping off the mb gives us a free chance to get rid of him, and in part because it helps shrink the unconfirmed pool by freeing meeko to shoot tonight. Leaving my vote on him in case people don’t agree with the mod kill. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1286 "2009-07-06T20:37:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Actually, he never claimed to be ordinary, so there’s not even a fib there. He just sort of let everyone assume that. > > And I agree that it’s his call on when and how to use his bullets. I just wanted to make sure he’d considered the possibility of a bloodbath night, if it was possible. I was thinking of [this post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11245668&postcount=343), where he claimed: “You are James “Sawyer” Ford(usually called Sawyer). You are a Survivor, this game’s version of Town.” There is a strong implication that he is ordinary IMO, but you’re right that he left it open. My memory did the rest 😃 ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1287 "2009-07-06T20:46:07Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > You gotta admit, **Shadow** , the pattern of \*\*AllWalker’s \*\*“far more likely to be town” statements (just \*\*Chronos \*\*on Day 1, \*\*Chronos \*\*and \*\*Storyteller \*\*on Day 2) is pretty suggestive. The phrasing is different/obvious enough that it’s a potential crumb in retrospect. I have said as much more than once. It is suggestive. It is indicative. What I’ve been arguing is that it is not _conclusive_. I don’t understand why anyone would think that is controversial. And FTR, based on [**Chronos’** summary of\*\* AllWalker’s \*\*posts](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11305775&postcount=1214), there are several examples of positive comments regarding **Chronos** , but only one about **storyteller**. The evidence of breadcrumbs is much more for **Chronos** than for **storyteller** and should not be equated. I should probably stop arguing about this, since apparently all it’s doing is making myself look bad. But, dammit, I’m right! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1288 "2009-07-06T20:46:30Z")
Mod kill pedescribe If we can kill enough of the unconfirmed folks (er, sorry, **ShadowFacts** , enough of the people without evidence for their innocence), we’re bound to hit Scum. If we get **pede** modkilled, who’s our best target for the lynch? My preference would be someone from **AllWalker** ’s list, since I think that’s a better tell than anything I’ve dug up, but I’m open for suggestions. And I would strongly suggest that anyone who can confirm themselves (such as the Doctor) claim toDay or toNight. If **Meeko** decides toNight is the best time to go shooting (as it may be; now that he’s declared his power, he’s an appealing target for the Scum), we don’t want him to kill any more Townies than can be reasonably avoided. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2009, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1289 "2009-07-06T21:01:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Mod kill pedescribe If we can kill enough of the unconfirmed folks (er, sorry, **ShadowFacts** , enough of the people without evidence for their innocence), we’re bound to hit Scum. > > If we get **pede** modkilled, who’s our best target for the lynch? My preference would be someone from **AllWalker** ’s list, since I think that’s a better tell than anything I’ve dug up, but I’m open for suggestions. > > And I would strongly suggest that anyone who can confirm themselves (such as the Doctor) claim toDay or toNight. If **Meeko** decides toNight is the best time to go shooting (as it may be; now that he’s declared his power, he’s an appealing target for the Scum), we don’t want him to kill any more Townies than can be reasonably avoided. I really think \*\*Scuba Ben \*\*is looking suspicious. See the cases here [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11296768&postcount=1045](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11296768&postcount=1045) And here [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11287774&postcount=975](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11287774&postcount=975) That **allwalker,** a confirmed townie, found him suspicious is reassuring to me. I also didn’t like the late day vote switching that saved him; that chaos could have hid a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1290 "2009-07-07T00:12:40Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Pedescribe(4): ScubaBen, USCDiver, Meeko, Telcontar ShadowFacts(1): Chronos I also have two requests to mod kill Pedescribe, from Chronos and Telcontar. With 11 people alive, I really need 6-7 request to modkill him, or he can remain alive and in the game.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1291 "2009-07-07T00:23:10Z")
Modkill pedescribe please. Otherwise I’d probably vote for him anyway. I’m getting an unpleasant tingling from the **ShadowFacts** / **Zeriel** interactions. Would appreciate it if somebody else looked into it as well as myself. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1292 "2009-07-07T00:27:14Z")
**Modkill pedescribe** I meant. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1293 "2009-07-07T00:28:14Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Modkill pedescribe please. > Otherwise I’d probably vote for him anyway. > > I’m getting an unpleasant tingling from the **ShadowFacts** / **Zeriel** interactions. Would appreciate it if somebody else looked into it as well as myself. Can you say a bit more? What kind of tingling? I was getting ready to call Zeriel out for lurking, but then he claimed flu 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1294 "2009-07-07T01:03:02Z")
Yeah, I’ve just been rereading. Mostly I think that the dogged pursuit of **Chronos** over what seems to me to be a somewhat trifling distinction (that is, the difference between **Chronos** calling himself confirmed and **Chronos** being confirmed enough that we probably need to begin with an assumption that others are better targets) by **ShadowFacts** was a little extreme, which could go either way as you noted. From that perspective, though **Zeriel** showing up and 1. arguing that the evidence that **AllWalker** trusted **Chronos** isn’t _that_ strong (which he followed up with a “never mind” and a “you’ve gotta admit,” which I thought read as kind of forced) and 2. saying that he was > [@](#): > > going to rant about how AllWalker leaving me off his “there’s a scum in this group” list (and subsequently ignoring my snark based on that) was potentially a clear crumb on me, except that I couldn’t find anywhere that I unambiguously said I was town on Day One struck me as, on the whole, coming at the problem backwards. It doesn’t seem very pro-town to me that the first instinct there was to see whether **AllWalker’s** death could _clear_ **Zeriel** ; I’d expect that the first reaction to finding out (as an ignorant Townie) that **AllWalker** was the lie detector would be to go back and see which other players he had breadcrumbed, not to try to build a case to establish that he breadcrumbed myself. Because, you know, what does a Townie who isn’t under much suspicion really care about bolstering his own defense? What is it worth to a Town player to be able to make an argument that he isn’t scum? And conversely, how valuable to scum is it, and how natural would the urge be, to have a lie detector apparently come out in support of your bona fides? Rereading all the way back, though, it’s not clear to me whether **Zeriel** ’s response is unfairly reflecting poorly on what **ShadowFacts** was trying to say, or what. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1295 "2009-07-07T01:06:02Z")
Not editing to clarify: > [@](#): > > What is it worth to a Town player to be able to make an argument that he isn’t scum? And conversely, how valuable to scum is it, and how natural would the urge be, to have a lie detector apparently come out in support of your bona fides? What I mean here is that I think it’s a very scummy inclination to take the death of a Town investigator and immediately attempt to build a (specious) defense of one’s self by hunting through the investigator’s posts for something that the investigator had said about one. I don’t think a town player would have the motivation to do that. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1296 "2009-07-07T01:32:54Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Actually, he never claimed to be ordinary, so there’s not even a fib there. He just sort of let everyone assume that. \*\* I take this to mean “Meeko sure has learned alot since Crimson.” :D\*\* But, seriously, when I claimed, we were only talking about Name Claims. When I Saw that we were going to Name and Role, I was mobile, and wanted to make sure we were not going to spend the fourth changing the game, given that it was a holiday. And also, I am not going to disclose the second half of the Role PM, because I know that I will not get everyone asking me to. I may not know who the Scum are, but, if we still have town out there, I doubt they would have wanted me to reveal the number of bullets I have left. Hence why I stated I needed the time to get home to my PC where I could get to my PMs. The Ipod Touch is great, but, it is limited. But, I do have cut and paste now for it. Only after I stated I was responsible for Scud, did I realize that this also stops scum from saying that they are a Town Vig, “And to prove it, I shot Tom Scud cause of X Y Z”. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1297 "2009-07-07T01:33:55Z")
Ack. NETA : Hence why I stated that I would only reveal the second half, if I got votes from EVERYONE. I kinda figured it wouldn’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1298 "2009-07-07T01:39:02Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I was getting ready to call Zeriel out for lurking, but then he claimed flu 😛 You are the Chicken Noodle Soup chef. Each night you may prepare Chicken Noodle soup for one player. If that player has the flu, he or she is cured from it at Dawn. Naah. Sorry, I was reading a “Worst roles in Mafia” thread yesterday. It had some interesting ideas. Not all together Politically Correct, but still intereting mechanics. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1299 "2009-07-07T01:45:51Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > I really think \*\*Scuba Ben \*\*is looking suspicious. > That **allwalker,** a confirmed townie, found him suspicious is reassuring to me. I also didn’t like the late day vote switching that saved him; that chaos could have hid a lot. Telcontar, I remind you of this :: > [@Meeko](#): > > SNIP > > Look at it the other way: > > After we tell you how to modify and clean up your scum role, you will post it? > > **No Dice.** > > Further, the entire premise of the question is off. This is not Silence of the Lambs, there is no quid pro quo here. The “Should anybody answer that issue well, I’ll post my role message” proves to me that you are not Vanilla. > > \*\* > You are hiding something. You want us to tell you how to continue to hide it. You also want to look inside how we think. Therefore, you know we will not question your role once you change it, and post the changed role. \*\* Do you have an opinion here? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1300 "2009-07-07T02:42:23Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Telcontar, I remind you of this :: > > Do you have an opinion here? Meeko: I don’t know what you mean. Jimmy: I’ve occasionally posted stupid stuff because I missed a page of posts so, in that vein, I’m inclined to think that Zeriel was probably just out of it (flu can do that). he retracted pretty quickly, which makes me feel that it was just a confused townie mistake. He is also contrary by nature :-P. Worth keeping an eye on though. As for shadow, yes his argument with chronos looks pretty scummy. But it also looks kind of…bizarre, really can’t imagine why a scum would go down that road (why drastically increase your visibility to make such a weak case?). If the scum were playing like that we’d have killed one by now. i’m going to give him a careful reread Tonight though. He’s undergone a big change in the last Day and one possibility is that he’s a scum who was laying low and has now scented victory. How many mafia do we think there are? If 5, then we should really be freaking out now. I think 4 is much more likely, which would imply that Tomorrow is the drop dead day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=66)