# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 67
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1321 "2009-07-07T14:41:08Z")
F\*#kity, F\*#k, F\*#k. Two people I’m suspicious of are going hard at each other at the last minute. Err, sh#t. Pedescribe: Why didn’t you block anyone night 3? If you were really the town role blocker, shouldn’t you have kept blocking shadow, if you thought you’d prevented a kill by doing so? That really just doesn’t make sense. And why not claim with a full name and PM? And why not say SOMETHING today before now? I don’t have time to say more, but I’ll try to check in before noon to see your response. As for now, I’ll leave my vote where it is; I’ve been suspicious of you for days. If we’re wrong about you, then meeko can clear away shadow tonight or we can lynch him tomorrow (yay having a vigilante, allows for lynch one, shoot one). ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1322 "2009-07-07T14:46:27Z")
And **ShadowFacts** suggests there is a Doctor after all. **Unvote ShadowFacts No clue who to vote for at this point** ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1323 "2009-07-07T14:47:29Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Pedescribe(5): USCDiver, Meeko, Telcontar, Chronos, ShadowFacts ShadowFacts(1): Storyteller \*\* ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1324 "2009-07-07T14:49:28Z")
Sigh. OK. I’m trying to talk around this, but **Shadow’s** put it out there and there it is. **ped** , I understand why you’re doing what you’re doing, but there comes a point where hiding something loses its value, or rather becomes less valuable than revealing it. I’m not going to speak for **pedescribe** here, but I really really think he should speak for himself. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1325 "2009-07-07T14:49:33Z")
Follow up thought, NETA: Maybe pedescribe’s block of ShadowFacts extended to blocking the use of role abilities on Shadow. Now I _really_ want to know pedescribe’s role PM, as if I’m right (fat chance, the way things have been going), then pedescribe’s role blocking ability might double as a protection ability. Which still doesn’t explain why storyteller got no result on his Night 3 investigation. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1326 "2009-07-07T14:50:28Z")
And for Jacob’s sake, people, unvote pedescribe. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1327 "2009-07-07T14:53:31Z")
**Story** , I appreciate the responses on the mechanical aspects. That all helps. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > Well, he’s claimed Jack Shepard, the Towniest name of them all. There has been no counterclaim, so now you’re asking me to believe that Mahaloth initially left out the biggest character in the show from the player list, then assigned it as a Scum cover role. Or that **pedescribe** intentionally chose a name that would have been assigned a town power role, knowing that it would force the actual Jack into the difficult predicament of exposing himself before any scum had actually been caught, right? I mean, if I can figure that out scum can figure it out. I’d expect that’s a tried-and-true scum tactic by this point when there’s a canon to work with - claim the most powerful character, and you either get trusted, or you expose the real one. Maybe the real Jack thinks that with a full day to go, it isn’t worth falling for it if **pedescribe** can be hoist on his own petard. Further, a lack of a counterclaim after like an hour isn’t that telling in the first place. > [@](#): > > I think **pedescribe** is likely telling the truth, and am willing to act on that belief. At some point, we have to make assumptions and act on them, or we’ll never do anything at all. I agree – in fact I was just saying something like that a little earlier – but the question here is why are you making that assumption? It’s certainly a coherent narrative, don’t get me wrong. It could very well be that what you’re assuming is exactly what’s happening. But for those of us in the dark in terms of who everyone else really is (by which I mean, those of us who don’t know for sure that you’re a town detective, and so on) it’s helpful to be able to flesh out the possibilities. What do you make of **ShadowFacts** ’ rebuttal? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1328 "2009-07-07T14:54:59Z")
Oh, wait. I see. OK. A couple of posts snuck in there while I was writing that one. **Story** , you can scratch that final question; I think I know what you make of it now. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1329 "2009-07-07T14:58:15Z")
Oh for the love of Mike, everytime I try to be cute and subtexty, someone comes along and just says it. OK, fine. **pedescribe** is very likely to be some variant on a “paranoid Doctor,” a role that protects his target, but also prevents his target from acting. I have not disclosed this before, but I received the same protection message on Night One, when I revealed that I might have been role blocked. This was why I went to some pains to indicate that I wasn’t sure whether the offense was a role-block - because I thought the protection and the block might have been connected. Nights Two and Three, I received no response to my investigation but no protection message. So: 1. The player that protected me Night One is the same as the one that protected ShadowFacts Night Two. **pedescribe** claims to have targeted me Night One and Shadow Night Two. It is theoretically possible that Scummy pedescribe, pulling the whole thing out of his rear end, somehow knew that the as-yet-unrevealed Doctor protected me Night One and Shadow Night Two, and tailored his false claim accordingly. It is possible, but not bloody likely. 2. I suspect that there is **pedescribe** , a Paranoid Doc, and **Player X** , a pro-Scum roleblocker. I think the pro-Scum role-blocker has been busily blocking me Nights Two and Three. 3. I think **ShadowFacts** reaction to all this screams Scum. I mean, in big loud screamy sounds. What did Shadow’s reveal of the protection message really accomplish? If Shadow were Town, keeping the existence of a Doctor under wraps would have been important at this stage. Did Shadow really fail to consider the possibility that the role-block and the protect were related? No - Shadow doesn’t want to get lynched, and definitely wants us to lynch a power role, so he blurted out information that a Townie wouldn’t have revealed in that spot hoping to confuse things. So far, he’s succeeded. Everyone should vote for **ShadowFacts**. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1330 "2009-07-07T15:00:46Z")
> [@Telcontar](#): > > Pedescribe: Why didn’t you block anyone night 3? If you were really the town role blocker, shouldn’t you have kept blocking shadow, if you thought you’d prevented a kill by doing so? That really just doesn’t make sense. And why not claim with a full name and PM? And why not say SOMETHING today before now? In light of my last post, do the answers to these questions seem more evident? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1331 "2009-07-07T15:03:19Z")
OK, first of all, it was late when I posted that vote, I was tired, and I hadn’t at the time considered the possibility of a role-blocker on both sides. **Unvote pedescribe** pending any counter-claim. Also because of my tiredness, I forgot to unvote **ShadowFacts**. Just to make things clear, **(Re)-Vote Shadowfacts** It’s possible that, if **pede** is telling the truth, that his block of **ShadowFacts** was the reason there was no kill Night 2, in which case **ShadowFacts** is definitely Scum. This strengthens my previous case. Quoth **storyteller** : > [@](#): > > the Town has approximately 12.5 points worth of power roles. > > A vanilla Townie is worth 1 point in this system. Let’s imagine four Scum. That’s 13 Town total, meaning nine vanillas, so 19.5 points total for the Town. Check your math: 12.5 plus 9 = 21.5, plus another point from having a Day start for 22.5. So assuming that covers all of the power roles, and that you valued **Meeko** and **AllWalker** correctly, that would give us 22.5 Town vs. 20 Scum in the 4-Scum case, or 21.5 Town vs. 24.5 Scum in the 5-Scum case. So we’re looking at either a 2.5 point imbalance or a 3 point imbalance, either of which look about equally plausible. More likely, I think, if **Mahaloth** used JSexton points, is that there’s one more minor power on one side or the other to balance things. Finally, quoth **Scuba\_Ben** : > [@](#): > > storyteller, here’s a thought for you: As you suggested up-thread, maybe you can’t get a reading on Scum; perhaps you get identical results when you’re blocked as when you investigate Scum. I suggest you consider investigating Chronos as a claimed Townie, to evaluate this possibility. What do you think of this idea? **storyteller** is a pretty shrewd player, but I would find it unlikely that he’d have managed to hit Scum on all three of his investigations. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1332 "2009-07-07T15:04:36Z")
Oh. Boy. Looks like I got some catching up to do. Give me a second here gang ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1333 "2009-07-07T15:05:19Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **storyteller** :Check your math: 12.5 plus 9 = 21.5, plus another point from having a Day start for 22.5. So assuming that covers all of the power roles, and that you valued **Meeko** and **AllWalker** correctly, that would give us 22.5 Town vs. 20 Scum in the 4-Scum case, or 21.5 Town vs. 24.5 Scum in the 5-Scum case. So we’re looking at either a 2.5 point imbalance or a 3 point imbalance, either of which look about equally plausible. More likely, I think, if **Mahaloth** used JSexton points, is that there’s one more minor power on one side or the other to balance things. What the hell is wrong with me? I work in the _sciences_, for crying out loud! Yup, leaning now toward four Scum inclusive of a Godfather. > [@](#): > > Finally, quoth **Scuba\_Ben** : **storyteller** is a pretty shrewd player, but I would find it unlikely that he’d have managed to hit Scum on all three of his investigations. Especially since one of them was **pedescribe**. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1334 "2009-07-07T15:11:25Z")
I’ll follow up to the follow-ups to my comment as soon as I double-check who story investigated and when. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1335 "2009-07-07T15:17:08Z")
On the other hand, if **pede** is a paranoid doc as **storyteller** is suggesting, then the lack of kill on Night 2 could also mean that **ShadowFacts** is innocent and was targeted by the Scum that night, and that the lack of kill was because he was protected. **pede, we really need to see your full role PM to unravel this**. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1336 "2009-07-07T15:17:36Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > On the other hand, if **pede** is a paranoid doc as **storyteller** is suggesting, then the lack of kill on Night 2 could also mean that **ShadowFacts** is innocent and was targeted by the Scum that night, and that the lack of kill was because he was protected. **pede, we really need to see your full role PM to unravel this**. Yikes, good point. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1337 "2009-07-07T15:18:24Z")
[storyteller claims John Locke, detective, claims investigations of pede and Telcontar failed](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11297317&postcount=1059) [storyteller claims no investigation result on ShadowFacts](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11304499&postcount=1201) ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1338 "2009-07-07T15:20:13Z")
[http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11297317&postcount=1059](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11297317&postcount=1059) Storyteller investigated pedescribe on Night 1 and Telcontar on Night 2. No result both times. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11304499&postcount=1201](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11304499&postcount=1201) Storyteller investigated ShadowFacts on Night 3. No result. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11313752&postcount=1309](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11313752&postcount=1309) Pedescribe blocked storyteller on Night 1, ShadowFacts on Night 2, and no blocks on Night 3. Storyteller got a protection notice on Night 1 and ShadowFacts did on Night 2. (Both posted on this page, IIRC.) I understand the no-result on pede for Night 1. But why on Nights 2 and 3? a: storyteller is lying with passion. b: there is indeed a Scum role blocker interfering with story. At this point, I’m supporting B, and we need to kill the Scum’s role blocker. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1339 "2009-07-07T15:32:15Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Oh for the love of Mike, everytime I try to be cute and subtexty, someone comes along and just says it. > > OK, fine. **pedescribe** is very likely to be some variant on a “paranoid Doctor,” a role that protects his target, but also prevents his target from acting. > > I have not disclosed this before, but I received the same protection message on Night One, when I revealed that I might have been role blocked. This was why I went to some pains to indicate that I wasn’t sure whether the offense was a role-block - because I thought the protection and the block might have been connected. Nights Two and Three, I received no response to my investigation but no protection message. > > So: > > 1. The player that protected me Night One is the same as the one that protected ShadowFacts Night Two. **pedescribe** claims to have targeted me Night One and Shadow Night Two. It is theoretically possible that Scummy pedescribe, pulling the whole thing out of his rear end, somehow knew that the as-yet-unrevealed Doctor protected me Night One and Shadow Night Two, and tailored his false claim accordingly. It is possible, but not bloody likely. > > 2. I suspect that there is **pedescribe** , a Paranoid Doc, and **Player X** , a pro-Scum roleblocker. I think the pro-Scum role-blocker has been busily blocking me Nights Two and Three. > > 3. I think **ShadowFacts** reaction to all this screams Scum. I mean, in big loud screamy sounds. What did Shadow’s reveal of the protection message really accomplish? If Shadow were Town, keeping the existence of a Doctor under wraps would have been important at this stage. Did Shadow really fail to consider the possibility that the role-block and the protect were related? No - Shadow doesn’t want to get lynched, and definitely wants us to lynch a power role, so he blurted out information that a Townie wouldn’t have revealed in that spot hoping to confuse things. > > So far, he’s succeeded. > > Everyone should vote for **ShadowFacts**. 1. We only have your word that you received the same PM I did, since you did not actually post it and danced around it, setting up your later claim to have been blocked every night. You now claim to have been blocked by two separate role-blockers for the entire game. Boy, are you popular! Or you’re not really a Detective and are simply using “blocks” as an excuse for not having any results. There is \*no evidence whatsoever \*that you are actually a Detective. 2. I had not considered it before, but I think **pedescribe** as Paranoid Doc is actually plausible, given his claim and my PM. But I don’t think there is a Player X, there is just you, not getting results because you are not a real Detective. **AllWalker** was our real Detective, and you’re trying to railroad me before everyone figures that out (which they will, toMorrow, if you are successful). 3. Why is posting the truth of the PM I received scummy? I thought I had been protected Night Two and the scum tried to kill me, resulting in no kill. Since **pedescribe** claimed to be a roleblocker, it only made sense that he was scum. Revealing that is pro-Town. I wasn’t thinking Paranoid Doctor. If **pedescribe** is a PD, then he is not necessarily scum. But you obviously are. Seriously, what’s more likely? That there are TWO roleblockers and TWO Detectives, or that **storyteller** is once again scum claiming to be a Detective, with no evidence and no results to back up his claim? **Unvote pedescribe** **Vote storyteller** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1340 "2009-07-07T15:34:47Z")
We have a Scum role blocker? \*\*SHIT. \*\* Mahaloth, How exactly is timing working for this game? \*\* If I pm first, and then the Scum pm, what happens?\*\* [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=66) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=68)