# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 68
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1341 "2009-07-07T15:34:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > On the other hand, if **pede** is a paranoid doc as **storyteller** is suggesting, then the lack of kill on Night 2 could also mean that **ShadowFacts** is innocent and was targeted by the Scum that night, and that the lack of kill was because he was protected. **pede, we really need to see your full role PM to unravel this**. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > Yikes, good point. Damn right. My point exactly. (PS. I enjoyed your “Jacob” prayer above - didn’t want it to pass unmentioned :)) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1342 "2009-07-07T15:39:18Z")
> [@](#): > > There is no evidence whatsoever that you are actually a Detective. Correction: There is no _proof_ that **storyteller** is a Detective, but there is evidence. Again, **AllWalker** (a confirmed investigator) stated without a given reason that he trusted **storyteller** , and the timing matches the possibility that he investigated him. This is evidence (though not, admittedly, proof) that **storyteller** is Town. And if **storyteller** is in fact Town (as supported by the evidence of what **AllWalker** said), then his own statement that he’s a Detective is itself very strong evidence that he is. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1343 "2009-07-07T15:41:28Z")
Chronos, who did you quote there? I Want to vote their Ass. Yeah, Scum role blocker, if you block the detective each night, there is no way he can prove it, now is there? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1344 "2009-07-07T15:41:52Z")
**Telcontar** , **Chronos** , **Zeriel** , **Scuba** : So, we have this question to decide. Which do each of you think is more likely – **Storyteller’s** made up a very complicated day-to-day narrative that requires all of the above power roles to exist, and it’s all a lie? Or **ShadowFacts** has been caught out and is fighting back? **USCDiver** , any change due to recent events? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1345 "2009-07-07T15:53:59Z")
Quoth **Meeko** : > [@](#): > > Chronos, who did you quote there? That was [**ShadowFacts**](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11314691&postcount=1339), end of his paragraph 1. Quoth **Jimmy** : > [@](#): > > So, we have this question to decide. Which do each of you think is more likely – Storyteller’s made up a very complicated day-to-day narrative that requires all of the above power roles to exist, and it’s all a lie? > > Or ShadowFacts has been caught out and is fighting back? Don’t forget, that first scenario also requires that we’ve been misinterpreting **AllWalker** ’s breadcrumb. And it looks to me like **ShadowFacts** is not just defending (which could be done perfectly well just by pointing out the possibility that he was saved by the Doctor, a possibility which he didn’t mention until I had already pointed it out), but counter-attacking. **ShadowFacts** , I can see the argument (from your point of view, if you’re actually Town) that **storyteller** is wrong, but where’s the argument that he’s Scum? ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1346 "2009-07-07T15:55:17Z")
I await pedescribe’s reply, and time to thoroughly evaluate the situation. Though story’s story has so many elements it should be easy enough to disprove one of those elements. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1347 "2009-07-07T16:05:57Z")
> [@](#): > > We only have your word that you received the same PM I did, since you did not actually post it and danced around it, setting up your later claim to have been blocked every night. You now claim to have been blocked by two separate role-blockers for the entire game. Boy, are you popular! Or you’re not really a Detective and are simply using “blocks” as an excuse for not having any results. There is \*no evidence whatsoever \*that you are actually a Detective. There is _no evidence whatsoever_ that I am not. The fact that a thing might be true is not evidence that it is. From the standpoint of the Town, it is possible that I am lying, of course. But you are playing a very Scummy game here: “possibility X exists, and therefore possibility X MUST BE TRUE!!!” This is nonsense, and it’s a good way to manufacture a case against someone where non exists. > [@](#): > > I had not considered it before, but I think **pedescribe** as Paranoid Doc is actually plausible, given his claim and my PM. But I don’t think there is a Player X, there is just you, not getting results because you are not a real Detective. **AllWalker** was our real Detective, and you’re trying to railroad me before everyone figures that out (which they will, toMorrow, if you are successful). Based on what? Seriously, what is your evidence beyond bald assertion and pointless appeals to previous games? You have none (you obviously have none, because what you say is not true). But to be clear: you think the Town was given a Paranoid Doctor, a Lie Detector, and a Vigilante, and that sounds _balanced_ to you? That makes sense? > [@](#): > > Why is posting the truth of the PM I received scummy? I thought I had been protected Night Two and the scum tried to kill me, resulting in no kill. Since **pedescribe** claimed to be a roleblocker, it only made sense that he was scum. Revealing that is pro-Town. I wasn’t thinking Paranoid Doctor. Because the fact that you were protected has nothing to do with whether you were role blocked, and vice versa. Suppose the existence of pedescribe, role-blocker, and Player Z, Doctor. You thought you were protected by Player Z. Fine. What possible bearing did that have on pedescribe blocking you? None. Pedescribe could have been a pro-Town role-blocker, blocking you while some other player protected you. Your reveal of the latter stinks of frantic flinging of everything you have against the wall - trying to use information that does not implicate pedescribe to somehow implicate him, because it’s information that you _have_ and you might as well use it. If you were Town, you would have been more careful with that information, which is important information to hide from the Scum (that a protective role exists). > [@](#): > > If **pedescribe** is a PD, then he is not necessarily scum. But you obviously are. Because…? > [@](#): > > Seriously, what’s more likely? That there are TWO roleblockers and TWO Detectives, or that **storyteller** is once again scum claiming to be a Detective, with no evidence and no results to back up his claim? You sound desperate. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1348 "2009-07-07T16:09:10Z")
**I wonder if the Scum are moving their votes right now.** ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1349 "2009-07-07T16:14:55Z")
> [@Scuba\_Ben](#): > > If we go this route, I suggest coordinating storyteller’s investigating someone not on Meeko’s target list. I am not sure how you mean this Ben, but I am currious as to ALL of the ways you do mean it. FTR: **I will NOT post a list of who I will shoot tonight.** I had to make a list, for all players to claim roles, in Crimson, around the exact same time in that game. I got the list wrong. Scum read the list in game and Scum used it against me. Ask Mahaloth if you don’t believe this. I am open to strong suggestions, and I am open to following those suggestions, but I will not personally post a list. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1350 "2009-07-07T16:15:42Z")
Meetings all morning. Bah! Shit, that’s a lot of thread. Okay, so as far as I can tell, the real issue here is this–Given that there was no kill on Night Two, and the claimed actions, which of the following happened: [ul] [li]\*\*Shadow \*\*blocked by the roleblocker (and is scum)[/li][li]\*\*Shadow \*\*protected from being killed (and no information possible on his alignment)[/li][li]\*\*Shadow \*\*is lying entirely about his PM (which is scummy but again, proves nothing)[/li][/ul] Given that killing \*\*Shadow \*\*will tell us a lot of information, and he can’t be proven town by the way things lined up, only proven scum, it seems most prudent to **vote ShadowFacts** The biggest issue with this scenario as it stands is that we have PMs claimed that appear to be doctor-esque, we have a claimed blocker whose claimed actions line up with reality (but are unprovable), and we have a claimed investigator who’s likely been breadcrumbed by the Lie Detector. Killing \*\*Shadow \*\*will, if he’s scum, expand our somewhat-to-completely confirmed pool to four ( **Story** , **Chronos** , **Pede** , **Meeko** ) which puts us in a good scum-finding position come tomorrow. Add in the absence of a counterclaim by either a doc or another pro-town roleblocker (and said counterclaim, if it happens, should give us all pause), and it seems unreasonable to disbelieve either \*\*story \*\*or **pede**. Which more or less forces \*\*Shadow \*\*to either be scum or, in the outside case of \*\*pede \*\*actually being a paranoid doc, the potential scum victim on Night Two. What are the odds of that? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1351 "2009-07-07T16:17:34Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Suppose the existence of … **Player Z** , Doctor. I will tell you one thing I am NOT, and that’s a Doctor. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1352 "2009-07-07T16:23:57Z")
Which reminds me… Jack Shepard has claimed. We (or at least I) consider it exceedingly likely that there are no more (pro-Town) power roles in this game. We have come to a place where a full name-claim should be made. If we’re not name-claiming, why not? Which power roles are we still trying to protect? Honestly, I’d be OK with a full role-claim at this point. There’s no danger left to us - our Investigators are dead and exposed, respectively, and pede is probably the closest thing to a Doctor that we have. A full name-claim would generate information - maybe only marginally useful information, but information nonetheless. A full role-claim would probably just confirm what we already know, but wouldn’t hurt us and would reduce certain amounts of uncertainty about the players we do have. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1353 "2009-07-07T16:29:34Z")
I wasn’t going to be the one to suggest it, but I’m wondering the same thing. If nothing else, it forces everyone to put themselves out there, which is something I think we could benefit greatly from. If we lynch scum tonight, it isn’t clear to me at least that we’d be able to unravel the rest of the threads without getting a lot more information on the table. (And from what I’ve read from the fans of the show, I’m probably one of the people whom a full name/role claim would put in jeopardy, but that’s OK by me). ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1354 "2009-07-07T16:30:31Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > The biggest issue with this scenario as it stands is that we have PMs claimed that appear to be doctor-esque, we have a claimed blocker whose claimed actions line up with reality (but are unprovable), and we have a claimed investigator who’s likely been breadcrumbed by the Lie Detector. Killing \*\*Shadow \*\*will, if he’s scum, expand our somewhat-to-completely confirmed pool to four ( **Story** , **Chronos** , **Pede** , **Meeko** ) which puts us in a good scum-finding position come tomorrow. > > Add in the absence of a counterclaim by either a doc or another pro-town roleblocker (and said counterclaim, if it happens, should give us all pause), and it seems unreasonable to disbelieve either \*\*story \*\*or **pede**. Which more or less forces \*\*Shadow \*\*to either be scum or, in the outside case of \*\*pede \*\*actually being a paranoid doc, the potential scum victim on Night Two. What are the odds of that? Well, I’m a bit confused here. 1.) Shadow claims to have been protected Night 2 and has posted a PM saying he was protected. 2.) Story confirms that he got the same PM night 1, thus it is fairly clear that Shadow was protected. 3.) Story has suggested that Pedescribe might be a paranoid doctor, though Pedescribe hasn’t confirmed this. So why must one of pedescribe and shadow be mafia? Isn’t it entirely possible that paranoid doctor pedescribe protected shadow, the mafia tried to kill shadow, and no one died? It’s been a really bizarre Day. So, I’m with scuba in asking pedescribe to respond. I just don’t know what to make of this insanity. Pedescribe: 1.) Are you a paranoid doctor? 2.) If you are a paranoid doctor, why are you so convinced that it was your role block rather than your heal that saved shadow? 3.) Regardless of whether you’re a role block or a paranoid doctor, why didn’t you hit shadow again night 3? Shadow: 1.) I don’t follow why, from your perspective, story must be mafia. He’s jumped the gun a bit, note the facepalm after chronos’s comment, but that’s hardly the world’s largest scum tell. 2.) Why are you flailing so much? Death shouldn’t terrify a townie this much. 3.) It might have made sense to report that you were protected on night 3 after no one died. Why didn’t you say anything? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1355 "2009-07-07T16:37:13Z")
Assume for argument we have a Scum Role Blocker. I should probably not use all of my bullets tonight. Am I wrong here? ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1356 "2009-07-07T16:42:37Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Which reminds me… > > Jack Shepard has claimed. We (or at least I) consider it exceedingly likely that there are no more (pro-Town) power roles in this game. > > We have come to a place where a full name-claim should be made. If we’re not name-claiming, why not? Which power roles are we still trying to protect? > > Honestly, I’d be OK with a full role-claim at this point. There’s no danger left to us - our Investigators are dead and exposed, respectively, and pede is probably the closest thing to a Doctor that we have. > > A full name-claim would generate information - maybe only marginally useful information, but information nonetheless. A full role-claim would probably just confirm what we already know, but wouldn’t hurt us and would reduce certain amounts of uncertainty about the players we do have. > > Thoughts? Eh, I don’t see the harm: \*\* Ana Lucia Cortez\*\* My hotness should be a super power. Jimmy, how about you go next? I won’t know what to make of the claim, but you’ve piqued my curiosity. ---
**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1357 "2009-07-07T16:44:02Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Assume for argument we have a Scum Role Blocker. > > I should probably not use all of my bullets tonight. > > Am I wrong here? Because you fear you might be blocked? Do you use up bullets if you try to kill and can’t? You don’t need to post the answers, but you should know them. If you use up bullets when blocked, you might want to save one. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1358 "2009-07-07T16:47:47Z")
First principles: the Scum aren’t stupid. If we can figure it out, they can figure it out. Here’s what they’re going to do: ToNight they will block me again and target **pedescribe**. If he is indeed a paranoid Doctor he will probably be unable to self-protect. ToMorrow Night they will kill me and block **Meeko**. The following Night they will kill **Meeko**. The only hitch for them will be if **pedescribe** can, indeed, self-protect. If he can, the above strategy will backfire on them spectacularly. If they fear this, they will block and kill him toNight, giving me one investigation before killing me toMorrow and proceeding as before. I suppose some alternate progression is possible, but it’s unlikely unless we kill their role-blocker or unless the danger posed by Meeko becomes very large. This is probably what’s in our future. ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1359 "2009-07-07T16:48:37Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > I am not sure how you mean this Ben, but I am currious as to ALL of the ways you do mean it. “ALL of the ways” in this case means one: Investigating somebody who gets shot would be a waste of the investigation. But your experience in Crimson is well taken, Meeko. You posting who you intend to shoot is probably unnecessary, and also provides Scum information on how many you can shoot at once. And in reply to your latest general question (and Telcontar’s response), I agree with him. If you definitely lose shots if blocked, I agree you ought to save some of them. At the same time, your gun makes you very powerful now, so I strongly suggest you use some of your shots. Is this a good time for me to channel Daffy Duck in the Hunter trilogy? ---
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1360 "2009-07-07T16:51:07Z")
story, their other options are killing xor blocking **Meeko** this Night. But yes, the Scum’s biggest threats are you three. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=67) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337.md?page=69)