# Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [June 10, 2009, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337 "2009-06-10T15:43:10Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 69

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**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1361 "2009-07-07T16:54:33Z")

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> [@Scuba\_Ben](#):
>
> story, their other options are killing xor blocking **Meeko** this Night. But yes, the Scum’s biggest threats are you three.

They’re not going to do that, I don’t think. **pedescribe** is their biggest threat, because as long as he is alive, he can balk them - AND there is an investigative component to his power now. He can screw them seventy ways. They have nothing to fear from me as long as I’m blockable. I guess they could block Meeko toNight, and give me an investigation while they kill pedescribe. Maybe they’ll do that, I guess, if they decide to roll the dice and hope that pedescribe can’t self-protect.

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**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1362 "2009-07-07T16:54:54Z")

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> [@storyteller0910](#):
>
> You sound desperate.

Not at all. I don’t mind a one-to-one trade at this point, since I don’t think we’re at LYLO. I would just prefer that we lynch you first to avoid getting railroaded by you and your false claims twice in two games. :smack:

For the record, the reasons I think you are scum are:

1. **AllWalker** was an Investigator and I think the odds are against us having two. (I mentioned this already in my first post of the Day, which is what got **Chronos** crawling all over my ass).

2. In order for you to be telling the truth, there must exist a scum roleblocker. If **pedescribe** is indeed a paranoid doctor, I think the odds are also against there being two roleblockers in this game.

2a. Also, if there is a scum roleblocker, who did they block Night One, when **pedescribe** claims to have blocked you (and you concur)? Nobody else spoke up to say they were blocked at the time. I think it is far more likely that there is only one blocker in this game: **pedescribe** , who both protects and blocks. On Night One, he targeted you, and gave you the ammo for a future claim, which you used once you came under fire. On Night Two, he targeted me, and saved me from being killed.

1. You apparently inferred that **pedescribe** was a Paranoid Doctor, but never considered the possibility that I was protected from a kill attempt until **Chronos** pointed it out to you? Sorry, you’re too smart for that. I think it more likely you conveniently neglected to mention it in your zeal to make me look bad.

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**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1363 "2009-07-07T16:56:13Z")

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OK, **Shadow**. I don’t agree that any of your points have merit. I think you should be lynched, and that you are trying to sow discord - and bravo to you in such a case, because it’s what you should do as Scum - but I’m not going to engage with you any further.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1364 "2009-07-07T17:00:06Z")

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> [@Telcontar](#):
>
> If you use up bullets when blocked, you might want to save one.

> [@Scuba\_Ben](#):
>
> And in reply to your latest general question (and Telcontar’s response), I agree with him. If you definitely lose shots if blocked, I agree you ought to save some of them. At the same time, your gun makes you very powerful now, so I strongly suggest you use some of your shots.

That’s pretty much what I thought.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1365 "2009-07-07T17:01:07Z")

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Wait. Wait. Wait.

**What happens if a Role Blocker / Doctor protects himself?**

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**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1366 "2009-07-07T17:06:13Z")

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So, regarding Meeko. Meeko, there are 11 players alive. ToDay we will lynch one of them, and be down to 10. Assuming that you trust me and pedescribe (and yourself), you would need a total of **7** bullets to literally break the game - you could kill all 7 players who are not one of the three of us. Game over. Actually, I guess you’d need six - Scum kill one of the ped/meeko/story trio, you kill six players, the remaining two Townies lynch the remainder if the game isn’t over at that point.

I doubt you had 7 bullets to begin with, or even close to that. Thus you cannot break the game for Town. I offer no advice on how you should play, just that simple numerical analysis.

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**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1367 "2009-07-07T17:07:42Z")

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I withdraw my suggestion in #1317 as useless. If story is lying, he can make up any result he wants about Chronos. If he’s telling the truth, we won’t be able to tell the difference.

I hope cardinal\_fang and USCDiver have useful stuff to add when they can log in.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1368 "2009-07-07T17:11:10Z")

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> [@storyteller0910](#):
>
> I doubt you had 7 bullets to begin with, or even close to that. Thus you cannot break the game for Town. I offer no advice on how you should play, just that simple numerical analysis.

Do you want me to shoot tonight, or not?

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1369 "2009-07-07T17:12:46Z")

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It would assume you already answered.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1370 "2009-07-07T17:13:46Z")

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NETA: I would assume you already answered. My Bad.

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**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1371 "2009-07-07T17:14:02Z")

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> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Do you want me to shoot tonight, or not?

I have no opinion on that, Meeko. Don’t shoot _me_. Or pedescribe. Or yourself. Beyond that, you have to make your own decision. I say this not to be a dick, but because I’d really rather force the Scum to guess at what we’re going to do with as little guidance as possible. Should they block you tonight? What if you don’t use your power at all? Can pede self-protect?

That’s also why I’m not going to offer much opinion on who is Town vs. Scum beyond ShadowFacts for toDay. If they leave me alive and let me investigate toNight, they’ll have to take the risk that I’ve got a bead on one of them. Never know.

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**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1372 "2009-07-07T17:22:19Z")

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I think story has said all we need to say for now about Night actions. I move to table discussion of Night actions until after Dusk.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1373 "2009-07-07T17:24:15Z")

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**Unvote Pede**

Pede I assume you to be a role blocker doctor hybrid type.

I just did you a favor here.

Do me a favor, and don’t do me any favors tonight.

Town : Do not block me tonight.

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**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1374 "2009-07-07T17:26:24Z")

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> [@storyteller0910](#):
>
> OK, **Shadow**. I don’t agree that any of your points have merit. I think you should be lynched, and that you are trying to sow discord - and bravo to you in such a case, because it’s what you should do as Scum - but I’m not going to engage with you any further.

OK, that’s your prerogative. But in your previous reply to me, you asked me why I thought you were scum, and stated that I had no case. I answered you, told you my reasons, and now you say that I am “sow[ing] discord.” Looks like another in a series of attempts to mis-characterize me (cf. calling me “desperate” and attributing this quote: “possibility X exists, and therefore possibility X MUST BE TRUE!!!” to me, when that’s not what I said, and I certainly did not use all caps and exclamation points). Others may not notice the subtle things you are doing to discredit me, but don’t think I’m not seeing it.

_shrug_ Carry on, I guess. I am happy to engage with any of the rest of you who’d like to ask me questions, since **story** is done with me. I don’t blame anyone for voting for me, but I do hope you’ll at least think critically about it before doing so.

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**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1375 "2009-07-07T17:27:57Z")

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CLAIM LIST (Please let me know if I get something wrong or missed anyone):

Storyteller0910 - John Locke - DETECTIVE  
pedescribe - Jack Shepard - ROLE BLOCKER  
Meeko - James “Sawyer” Ford - VIGILANTE  
Telecontar - Ana Lucia Cortez - HOT (NO CLAIM)  
Scuba\_Ben - Charlie Pace - VANILLA  
Chronos - Michael Dawson - VANILLA

No Claims  
USCDiver  
Zeriel  
ShadowFacts  
Jimmy Chitwood  
Cardinal\_fang

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1376 "2009-07-07T17:29:14Z")

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\*\*Vote Count:

ShadowFacts(4): Storyteller, ScubaBen, Chronos, Zeriel

Pedescribe(2): USCDiver, Telcontar

Storyteller(1): ShadowFacts\*\*

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1377 "2009-07-07T17:31:39Z")

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Quoth **storyteller** :

> [@](#):
>
> We have come to a place where a full name-claim should be made. If we’re not name-claiming, why not? Which power roles are we still trying to protect?
> 
> Honestly, I’d be OK with a full role-claim at this point. There’s no danger left to us - our Investigators are dead and exposed, respectively, and pede is probably the closest thing to a Doctor that we have.

I think I already came out in favor of a full claim of everything, too, at the start of toDay, and since I’ve full-claimed myself, there’s nothing more I can do on the subject.

**Meeko** : Find out whether you’ll still use up bullets if you’re blocked (but you probably shouldn’t share the answer to that question). If you do _not_ use up bullets when blocked, then there’s no reason for you not to try to completely empty your magazine toNight. If you do use up bullets when blocked, then there’s nothing more that we can say than to use your own best judgment.

Quoth **storyteller** :

> [@](#):
>
> So, regarding Meeko. Meeko, there are 11 players alive. ToDay we will lynch one of them, and be down to 10. Assuming that you trust me and pedescribe (and yourself), you would need a total of 7 bullets to literally break the game - you could kill all 7 players who are not one of the three of us.

While I’m not any particular threat to the Scum like you three are, I think that there’s pretty good evidence that I’m innocent. So you might not want to shoot me, either.

Finally, on the question of **storyteller** and **Meeko** overlapping in their lists, what’s the downside of **storyteller** telling **Meeko** (and everyone else, of course) whom he’s planning on investigating toNight? Obviously that would let the Scum know, too, and they might base their decisions on whether the person **storyteller** is planning to investigate is Town or Scum, but it seems to me that any successful investigation at this point would be pretty bad for Scum, whatever the result.

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1378 "2009-07-07T17:32:05Z")

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I am Rose Nadler.

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**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1379 "2009-07-07T17:56:04Z")

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Anything more than that, Jimmy?

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**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\
**Post date:** [July 7, 2009, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/lost-mafia-werewolf-psychopath/499337/1380 "2009-07-07T17:57:54Z")

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What?

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